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sloner axiom :)

rocky72 said:
sure ..sure. ;)

usually tourists getting robbed in china , when pecking at the bait to get a cheap sex;)
or some pretty girls inviting you to have a drink with them , and afterwards you will have to pay few hundreds USD for couple of beers ;)
they have a famous pedestrian road in the heart of shanghai , one day i had a pizza there and decided to walk , and while i passed this road along, i received 12 invitations from different persons to have a sex massage ;)
Click to expand...

If by miracle sloner axiom has to happen again this year( current )!
Me and simon had a bet with sloner and we going to siberia dressed up like
Girls ;) I was thinking we could passe you by at shangai, at one condition you must
Pick us up at the airoport to risky for me and siomn we will get raped ;)
 
vladek15425 said:
if by miracle sloner axiom has to happen again this year( current )!
Me and simon had a bet with sloner and we going to siberia dressed up like
girls ;) i was thinking we could passe you by at shangai, at one condition you must
pick us up at the airoport to risky for me and siomn we will get raped ;)
Click to expand...

lololol
 
Ok after 4 months process we had 30312 selectees incl that generated 11894 visas
140660 / 30312 = 4.6
4.6 * 11894 = 54712
Exactly what I'm expecting with nacara input, guys I really believe this year is abnormal, so they will be a big surprise
At the end we will get this amouny of visas 54712. Nacara debt is paid out we are getting what belong to us the nearly full 55k visasallocated for DV program.
The only thing is the time frame :( 5 months left. KFC has to make an exepional CUToffs order to be able to process the whole 140k candidates.
Sloner,simon..... what do you think of this crazy calcution of mine :p
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok after 4 months process we had 30312 selectees incl that generated 11894 visas
140660 / 30312 = 4.6
4.6 * 11894 = 54712
Exactly what I'm expecting with nacara input, guys I really believe this year is abnormal, so they will be a big surprise
At the end we will get this amouny of visas 54712. Nacara debt is paid out we are getting what belong to us the nearly full 55k visasallocated for DV program.
The only thing is the time frame :( 5 months left. KFC has to make an exepional CUToffs order to be able to process the whole 140k candidates.
Sloner,simon..... what do you think of this crazy calcution of mine :p
Click to expand...


Well it isn't bad mathematics, but how many APs are there for those 4 months that will later turn into visas issued, or READY ones that turn into interviews, or AOS ones that aren't in there anyway, or people who appear as holes because they are late filing. Even if those things only add up to 2000 more on top of the 11800 then the demand is in the mid 60's.
 
vladek15425 said:
If by miracle sloner axiom has to happen again this year( current )!
Me and simon had a bet with sloner and we going to siberia dressed up like
Girls ;) I was thinking we could passe you by at shangai, at one condition you must
Pick us up at the airoport to risky for me and siomn we will get raped ;)
Click to expand...

bro , do not do this mistake ,
Russians do not endorse same sex games and such a things. And one of the main reason of being Putin in power ,that he provides bright future to russian families.(((( at least he thinks so.

Sloner is young man , may be he hopes to make money with DV-loto one day ...
who knows?
,if they won't eliminate DV-loto , may be soon we will get one more ,
but super-raevsky ?(((
today he is distributing hope among the folks - tomorrow he will sell a service , anyway this is his own business.
but note , siberian girls much better then chinees
 
britsimon said:
Well it isn't bad mathematics, but how many APs are there for those 4 months that will later turn into visas issued, or READY ones that turn into interviews, or AOS ones that aren't in there anyway, or people who appear as holes because they are late filing. Even if those things only add up to 2000 more on top of the 11800 then the demand is in the mid 60's.
Click to expand...

Yes I know. Its not 100% because I excluded all the factors that you mentioned, but hopefully it won't have a huge inpact on this formula, may be just +- 3 or 4k difference!
And that's why I need to know the full numbers of the drop outs in dv13 to may be use it for further readjustment...
 
rocky72 said:
bro , do not do this mistake ,
Russians do not endorse same sex games and such a things. And one of the main reason of being Putin in power ,that he provides bright future to russian families.(((( at least he thinks so.

Sloner is young man , may be he hopes to make money with DV-loto one day ...
who knows?
,if they won't eliminate DV-loto , may be soon we will get one more ,
but super-raevsky ?(((
today he is distributing hope among the folks - tomorrow he will sell a service , anyway this is his own business.
but note , siberian girls much better then chinees
Click to expand...

Mmmmmmm siberian girls. :rolleyes:
 
vladek15425 said:
If by miracle sloner axiom has to happen again this year( current )!
Me and simon had a bet with sloner and we going to siberia dressed up like
Girls ;) I was thinking we could passe you by at shangai, at one condition you must
Pick us up at the airoport to risky for me and siomn we will get raped ;)
Click to expand...

Whoever decides to rape 300lbs tranny has to be seriously damaged whether it's in China or anywhere else in the world :D:D:D (no offence boys :))


On the other hand rocky is right. Parading in women's clothes in Russia would probably get you killed so I would advise on sending Sloner a KFC bucket :)

Also Vladek, not a bad theory. Should we start a topic "Vladek's axiom" :p
 
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franko said:
Whoever decides to rape 300lbs tranny has to be seriously damaged whether it's in China or anywhere else in the world :D:D:D (no offence boys :))

On the other hand rocky is right. Parading in women's clothes in Russia would probably get you killed so I would advise on sending Sloner a KFC bucket :)

Also Vladek, not a bad theory. Should we start a topic "Vladek's axiom" :p
Click to expand...


Hahaha may be we should go with KFC chickens outfits to avoid troubles :) lol
I think that will do yeaHHH ;)

Now about my theory, I really looked at the data nearly every day! And I came with this conclusion.
And it doesn't sound completely bad, I can elaborate more on it and add more inputs to it...
I'm just waiting to hear for my siberian comrade, he might want to say something about, and I will try to put it as a 3rd alternative to skywalker and sloner's axiom ... :p
 
franko said:
Whoever decides to rape 300lbs tranny has to be seriously damaged whether it's in China or anywhere else in the world :D:D:D (no offence boys :))


On the other hand rocky is right. Parading in women's clothes in Russia would probably get you killed so I would advise on sending Sloner a KFC bucket :)

Also Vladek, not a bad theory. Should we start a topic "Vladek's axiom" :p
Click to expand...


OMG - that is too funny Frank!
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok after 4 months process we had 30312 selectees incl that generated 11894 visas
140660 / 30312 = 4.6
4.6 * 11894 = 54712
Exactly what I'm expecting with nacara input, guys I really believe this year is abnormal, so they will be a big surprise
At the end we will get this amouny of visas 54712. Nacara debt is paid out we are getting what belong to us the nearly full 55k visasallocated for DV program.
The only thing is the time frame :( 5 months left. KFC has to make an exepional CUToffs order to be able to process the whole 140k candidates.
Sloner,simon..... what do you think of this crazy calcution of mine :p
Click to expand...

I think , we should not care about 140k.
Initially they selected 125k but after some time later(maybe weeks later) they added 15k more winners and number of winners is increased to 140k.We've learnt that after first VB published. Until first VB we were thinking that 125k is total number.
I believe some of these 15k additional winner never knew they are selected.(Like 2012) That is why total informed winner number is less than 140k but higher than 125k. What do you think?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Istanbuler said:
I think , we should not care about 140k.
Initially they selected 125k but after some time later(maybe weeks later) they added 15k more winners and number of winners is increased to 140k.We've learnt that after first VB published. Until first VB we were thinking that 125k is total number.
I believe some of these 15k additional winner never knew they are selected.(Like 2012) That is total informed winner number is less than 140k but higher than 125k. What do you think?
What you think?
Click to expand...


The 2nd draw/hidden winners are normally revealed around October to December after KCC have had the bulk of the applications returned after May 1st. However, we found out the 140k number in the September VB - published in August - i.e. decided in July/early August at the latest. So - I think the 140k was the original draw.
 
britsimon said:
The 2nd draw/hidden winners are normally revealed around October to December after KCC have had the bulk of the applications returned after May 1st. However, we found out the 140k number in the September VB - published in August - i.e. decided in July/early August at the latest. So - I think the 140k was the original draw.
Click to expand...

ok that makes sense.
But why did they publish first Notification letter with 125k. According to what you are saying it should be 140k.
Was that another KCC mistake?
 
Istanbuler said:
ok that makes sense.
But why did they publish first Notification letter with 125k. According to what you are saying it should be 140k.
Was that another KCC mistake?
Click to expand...


No I have no idea about that. The 125k number was in the 1NL as you know. I don't know if previous years notification letters have been accurate about the number although I have seen a 2013 letter that mentions "approximately 100,000" selectees (when in fact the first draw was over 105k. So I don't think the wording of the letter is especially significant - they obviously knew they were going to select substantially more selectees in 2014, but perhaps didn't know how many more until after the letter was prepared. The letter would have been prepared in advance of course because the process to produce it is a computer program (report) that creates the personalised letters with bar codes etc.
 
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