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sloner axiom :)

Vladek, you have a bug. - Ready these people are waiting for an interview.
30312-6541-1872-5536-270-406=15687
140660/15687=8,96
11294*8,96=101194
 
ok that makes sense.
But why did they publish first Notification letter with 125k. According to what you are saying it should be 140k.
Was that another KCC mistake?
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In 2007, in a letter written figure of 100,000. In reality chose 82000.
 
britsimon said:
Cool - so that shows there is a clear disconnect - we should not have put any faith in the 125k number.
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Do you think it can be true? Not all the 140k are notified !? May be just 125k?
Because at the end we will never know ! KFC formulas are keeps secrets 11 herbs in there lol
 
Sloner my formula is more realistic I will add some new factors in it :)
Simon will get more greys hairs tonight buhahahaha ;)
 
vladek15425 said:
Do you think it can be true? Not all the 140k are notified !? May be just 125k?
Because at the end we will never know ! KFC formulas are keeps secrets 11 herbs in there lol
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I think the additional 15k is for Nacara quota. Initially KCC might plan for 125k for 50k visas and they might increase additional 15k because they get some quota from Nacara. This is just a wild guess.
 
kayend said:
I think the additional 15k is for Nacara quota. Initially KCC might plan for 125k for 50k visas and they might increase additional 15k because they get some quota from Nacara. This is just a wild guess.
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Hmmm - interesting. A deliberate increase to exploit the nearly 5k available to them - yeah, I can see that...
 
kayend said:
I think the additional 15k is for Nacara quota. Initially KCC might plan for 125k for 50k visas and they might increase additional 15k because they get some quota from Nacara. This is just a wild guess.
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It makes sens I also said it in my new formula that I'm expecting to get back the 5k nacara this year because I believe its paid out!
 
That theory (not notifying all winners and new 15k selected) can explain the fact in entrant status check, they mention to keep registration number until certain period, October I think
 
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in this case, the DV2012 effect will be applied for the additional 15k, so most of them will never know...

kayend said:
I think the additional 15k is for Nacara quota. Initially KCC might plan for 125k for 50k visas and they might increase additional 15k because they get some quota from Nacara. This is just a wild guess.
Click to expand...
 
kayend said:
I think the additional 15k is for Nacara quota. Initially KCC might plan for 125k for 50k visas and they might increase additional 15k because they get some quota from Nacara. This is just a wild guess.
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I think what you are saying may be true.
 
Ok simon you remember this
140660 / 30312 = 4.6
4.6 * 11894 = 54712

Now concerning all the coming backs from readys and APs will be squeezed in like this:
Because at the end the over suscribed countrie will only take 3700 visas no matter what!
So I'm eliminating lots cases roughly 10k ! I'm not saying that they won't have a chance to an interview
But I'm saying that there is a visa quota limit per country! 7%
So there you go even the AOS will fit in there :p
Hope you not getting a nightmare from this input :) lol
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok simon you remember this
140660 / 30312 = 4.6
4.6 * 11894 = 54712

Now concerning all the coming backs from readys and APs will be squeezed in like this:
Because at the end the over suscribed countrie will only take 3700 visas no matter what!
So I'm eliminating lots cases roughly 10k ! I'm not saying that they won't have a chance to an interview
But I'm saying that there is a visa quota limit per country! 7%
So there you go even the AOS will fit in there :p
Hope you not getting a nightmare from this input :) lol
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LOL - it's a good attempt at a new approach, but there are several problems with this calculation.

First, doesn't take the volume of AP and ready cases into account - we don't know how many of those will increase the 11894 number - but I would expect some.
Second, you explain point one by saying the selectees over the country 7% limit will be around 10k. Well no, because if you look at most countries their low success rate is such that they are unlikely to hit the country limit. For instance Nigeria had 6218 selectees in 2013 and only received 3252 visas (including aos). There are some countries that will hit the 7% limit (like Nepal) but very few - so I can't see us losing 10k people that way.
 
another argument: with 106k we got 51 or 52k including AOS, how 'vladek' will convince us that 140k will take only 55k without rejection !!!!! unfortunately between 15k and 20k will not even pass the interview like in 2008 unless they take more then 55k... even Europe will not go current this year...

britsimon said:
LOL - it's a good attempt at a new approach, but there are several problems with this calculation.

First, doesn't take the volume of AP and ready cases into account - we don't know how many of those will increase the 11894 number - but I would expect some.
Second, you explain point one by saying the selectees over the country 7% limit will be around 10k. Well no, because if you look at most countries their low success rate is such that they are unlikely to hit the country limit. For instance Nigeria had 6218 selectees in 2013 and only received 3252 visas (including aos). There are some countries that will hit the 7% limit (like Nepal) but very few - so I can't see us losing 10k people that way.
Click to expand...
 
another argument: with 106k we got 51 or 52k including AOS, how 'vladek' will convince us that 140k will take only 55k without rejection !!!!! unfortunately between 15k and 20k will not even pass the interview like in 2008 unless they take more then 55k... even Europe will not go current this year...
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This year is different. it is a fact.
Ok simon you remember this
140660 / 30312 = 4.6
4.6 * 11894 = 54712
Click to expand...
Vladek, you do not understand me. You can not allow interviews of people who have not passed the interview. You added them. Therefore, calculations are not correct.
 
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