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sloner axiom :)

Sloner said:
This year is different. it is a fact.

Vladek, you do not understand me. You can not allow interviews of people who have not passed the interview. You added them. Therefore, calculations are not correct.
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No sloner this calculation is done after 4 full months of process so the number 30312 is number of the selectees including family that passed the interview until end of january.
And that generated 11894. Visas ! You can recheck the Data, and let me know again.
So I didn't not include coming interviews its only passed interviewed :p
 
vladek15425 said:
No sloner this calculation is done after 4 full months of process so the number 30312 is number of the selectees including family that passed the interview until end of january.
And that generated 11894. Visas ! You can recheck the Data, and let me know again.
So I didn't not include coming interviews its only passed interviewed :p
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No Vladek, the 30312 figure is the number of selectees + family in the whole selection. For instance, the EU numbers are shown up to 20050 - but the January cutoff was 13200, so what Sloner is saying is that only 8537 selectees should count, whereas the EU total is 11498. Each region needs adjusting that way otherwise you are taking 4 months results and 6 months selectees.
 
britsimon said:
No Vladek, the 30312 figure is the number of selectees + family in the whole selection. For instance, the EU numbers are shown up to 20050 - but the January cutoff was 13200, so what Sloner is saying is that only 8537 selectees should count, whereas the EU total is 11498. Each region needs adjusting that way otherwise you are taking 4 months results and 6 months selectees.
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You know what I did I took rafikbos data untill 02.02.2014 and I actualy forgot that sums the CN and the selectees for february march too!
So sloner was right its faulty !
So what I'm gonna do now, is take reavsky data, which shows CNs(incl family cases) up to end of january and I will take the visa issued number from rafikos data, than it will balance !? That I will re apply my formu!
Eurikaaaa
What you think simon?
 
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vladek15425 said:
You what I did I took rafikbos data untill 02.02.2014 and I actualy forgot that sums the CN and the selectees for february march too!
So sloner was right its faulty !
So what I'm gonna do now, is take reavsky data, which shows CNs(incl family cases) up to end of january and I will take the visa issued number from rafikos data, than it will balance !? That I will re apply my formu!
Eurikaaaa
What you think simon?
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No - that was an older extract of the data - so Rafikbos data is more complete. You just need to get the numbers by totaling each region selectees prior to the January cutof date (the same way I got the EU 8537).

OK - I did that

AF - 11156
EU - 8537
AS - 3478
SA - 675
OC - 354
Total - 24200

So - your method is this -

140660 / 24200 = 5.8
5.8 * 11894 = 68985 (+AOS, + AP/ready/holes cases that could go to issued)

So - your method is useful to show the problem that we all know we have. Sloner, does this surprise you?
 
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britsimon said:
No - that was an older extract of the data - so Rafikbos data is more complete. You just need to get the numbers by totaling each region selectees prior to the January cutof date (the same way I got the EU 8537).

OK - I did that

AF - 11156
EU - 8537
AS - 3478
SA - 675
OC - 354
Total - 24200
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I wanted to do that but that pivots things on excel !!!! I couldn't catch it :p
Thanks simon tonight I will apply it lol
 
Sloner said:
Where did you get the number 24200? These estimates do not show us anything. Need to compare last year. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmbWzexdyvIldEs1d3VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE#gid=2
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24200 is the number of selectees (including family) shown on CEAC up to the January cutoffs. So - looking at Rafikbos data, the January cutoff for AF was 19400 - and that is 11156 people. His data shows the visas issued numbers that could only have been issued to people up to the end of January. (because he grabbed the data on the 2nd February). So - his numbers show a total of 11294 visas for the cases up to the end January and 24200 is the number of selectees (up to the end of January).

So - Vladeks method demonstrates that the first 4 months success rate per selectee means that we need over 70k visas to satisfy the demand. Or to put it another way, at current success rates (for first 4 month and with NO AP cases going to issued and NO AOS) we would get to 55k visas with 117,854 selectees. Or we could get to 50k with 106964 (again with NO AOS and NO AP cases turning to issued)

So, contrary to your theory that we will see higher failure rates this year, we are actually seeing lower failure rates than 2013. So Sloner - what do you think?
 
By the way, applying the Vladek method to AF region looks like this:-

62000 / 11156 = 5.55
5.55 * 4541 = 25202

So - AF are receiving visas roughly in line with 2013, and NOTHING LIKE the rates of 2012. Again, this supposes that AOS is not taking any in Africa, and that NONE of the AP cases will get approved and that no one will have applied late or moved their interview.
 
I agree with you, the success rate can't be so different between DV2013 and DV2014, and from the CEAC new data we have the prouve, with 140k selectees we can't have only 55k.....

[QQUOTE=britsimon;2680287]24200 is the number of selectees (including family) shown on CEAC up to the January cutoffs. So - looking at Rafikbos data, the January cutoff for AF was 19400 - and that is 11156 people. His data shows the visas issued numbers that could only have been issued to people up to the end of January. (because he grabbed the data on the 2nd February). So - his numbers show a total of 11294 visas for the cases up to the end January and 24200 is the number of selectees (up to the end of January).

So - Vladeks method demonstrates that the first 4 months success rate per selectee means that we need over 70k visas to satisfy the demand. Or to put it another way, at current success rates (for first 4 month and with NO AP cases going to issued and NO AOS) we would get to 55k visas with 117,854 selectees. Or we could get to 50k with 106964 (again with NO AOS and NO AP cases turning to issued)

So, contrary to your theory that we will see higher failure rates this year, we are actually seeing lower failure rates than 2013. So Sloner - what do you think?[/QUOTE]
 
I'm not sure what your point is.

11294 visas were issued.

24200 is the number of people that could have gone to interview - but some didn't.

Those are the only numbers we need to look at.
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No. We must take a number of about 17,000. This number is close to reality.
 
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