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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

Quich view on AF region,
Nigeria had a 7600 jump in august VB.
So that means nigerian cases are max-out at 98%.
The only heck is egypt with only 2k jump, means that egypt is still on the race.
 
Quich view on AF region,
Nigeria had a 7600 jump in august VB.
So that means nigerian cases are max-out at 98%.
The only heck is egypt with only 2k jump, means that egypt is still on the race.

Agreed,

Any idea about embassies capacities vladek?
That parameter could affect the cut-off if KCC priority is to fill a regional quota (if it exist).
 
My September prediction:
AF: 87k, no exception for Nigeria & Egypt
EU: 46k
NA: Current
AS: Current/ Nep=9500
OC: 1750
SA: 2200

I hope that I am wrong ......
 
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Agreed,

Any idea about embassies capacities vladek?
That parameter could affect the cut-off if KCC priority is to fill a regional quota (if it exist).
IMO it does exist (the quotas) because them selecting :
62k from AF
43k from EU
23k from asia ......
Implies that there is quotas to respect and work with!
Regarding the embassies capacities we have different views, some say they do speed up at the last 2 months, some say its the same rythm just because there is less selectees at the end.
So seing big jumps by the the last two months might lead to different intrepretations....
For all clearing APs give a huge amount of visas given.
So my self I don't on which foot to dance :(
 
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hi guys im new to this forum and my dv cn is AS14xxx. i wanted to clarify my education qualification, i have 7 passes in O/Level and i didnt do A/Levels. then i followed a btec level 5 EDXCEL HND in computing and systems development (2010 sep to 2013 march) and then EDhat level 5 IHD ( International Higher Diploma) in computer networks (Overall GPA 3.0 & Overall Result B+) (2013 jan to 2014 may), and presently working as a IT consultant for a firm since 2010. am i qualified for the dv? please experts reply me on this.
 
Let put it this way, 16.7k is consider safe range but it can still go further if the density is lesser above 14-15k or DOS decided to put AP clearing rate less than 50%.
Can we get an idea about this through CEAC data which will be published in the beginning of next month????
 
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My September prediction:
AF: 87k, no exception for Nigeria & Egypt
EU: 46k
NA: Current
AS: Current/ Nep=9500
OC: 1750
SA: 2200

I hope that I am wrong ......

Would be great for Europe if we reach that number, I'm not used to other continent numbers but I hope as much as posible get in the boat.
I can't wait for the next numbers as we, high numbers, have been waiting without making any plans because of the visa for more tan one year now.

Really hope you're right MalcomX :rolleyes:
 
IMO it does exist (the quotas) because them selecting :
62k from AF
43k from EU
23k from asia ......
Implies that there is quotas to respect and work with!
Regarding the embassies capacities we have deffirent views, some say they do speed up at the last 2 months, some say its the same rythm just because there is less selectees at the end.
So seing big jumps by the the last two months might lead to deffirent intrepretations....
For all clearing APs give a huge amount of visas given.
So my self I don't on which foot to dance :(

Running some queries on September 2013 data, taking into account only current CN according to last cut-off 81200 (late comers not into account), I found that among 3,4 K issued case (status date field, I m not sure if it is the date of visa issuance but have no other choice), only 700 are from september cut off, So yes clearing AP cases generate a lot of issued visa.
Also, from my AF data analysis, I found that arround 1.9K cases are scheduled each month, the density and embassies capacity will affect the cut off evolution, late comer also can affect the cut off alocation.
Last year September cut off scheduled interview was only 11k (also without late comers), that's why KCC estimate there is enough visa for remaining cases.
This is why I am asking about embassies capacity and the possible regional quota filling priority.

As i told you before, may be this is my 7 level inception, but have no choice, just be careful, don't come with me bro ;)
 
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To all selectees from Nepal with higher CN. Be optimistic because the special cut-off might be a temporary hold for a month. Like they did for Uzbekstan and Ethiopia. I hope it will go up to 13000.
:)
 
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Ethiopia's was not temporarily put in place for one month. It was there from the beginning and was only removed starting from the May numbers (or was it April? Forgot).


Malcolm X, I really hope your predictions are wrong. That would be an absolutely horrible bulletin for AF in particular. Way less than last year!!
Goodness, what a mess this year's DV is!!
 
My September prediction:
AF: 87k, no exception for Nigeria & Egypt
EU: 46k
NA: Current
AS: Current/ Nep=9500
OC: 1750
SA: 2200

I hope that I am wrong ......
Hmmm.... Possible, of course, yet the coming month is rather unpredictable and much of what we predict may or may not happen...
 
Does anyone know what happened to our dear friend Dalius, no words from him for long time. It would be nice to have more frequent updates on dv2014.tumblr.com awesome work indeed.I am pretty sure that "die off effect" of ready cases( on global level) will play significant role in next VB.Really anything can happen, even maybe all regions become current to the exhaustion with some kind of FIFO approach in high cases.
 
IMO it does exist (the quotas) because them selecting :
62k from AF
43k from EU
23k from asia ......
Implies that there is quotas to respect and work with!
Regarding the embassies capacities we have different views, some say they do speed up at the last 2 months, some say its the same rythm just because there is less selectees at the end.
So seing big jumps by the the last two months might lead to different intrepretations....
For all clearing APs give a huge amount of visas given.
So my self I don't on which foot to dance :(

About the quotas Vladdy - it is clear that quotas were applied when they allocated the number of selectees per region. However, in a year where every region has too many selectees, will they cut one region off before the others (a hard stop quota) or do they just adjust they VB and let the results just happen...
 
About the quotas Vladdy - it is clear that quotas were applied when they allocated the number of selectees per region. However, in a year where every region has too many selectees, will they cut one region off before the others (a hard stop quota) or do they just adjust they VB and let the results just happen...

That's exactly what I am asking Simon,
What about embassies capacity?
From what I found analyzing CEAC data, some embassies can schedule till 200 cases in a month, do you have any idea about that?
 
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