• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

Slikk said:
Does anyone know what happened to our dear friend Dalius, no words from him for long time. It would be nice to have more frequent updates on dv2014.tumblr.com awesome work indeed.I am pretty sure that "die off effect" of ready cases( on global level) will play significant role in next VB.Really anything can happen, even maybe all regions become current to the exhaustion with some kind of FIFO approach in high cases.
Click to expand...

Good question - it would be nice to know he is ok. FYI the ready cases in Dalius' data was/is overstated.
 
rafikbo76 said:
That's exactly what I am asking Simon,
What about embassies capacity?
From what I found analyzing CEAC data, some embassies can schedule till 200 cases in a month, do you have any idea about that?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure about the capacity, although I do agree that could be a factor for AF in September. 200 cases doesn't sound like a lot to me - although would depend on the size of the embassy. For London for example, I'm sure they could 200 DV cases in a day if they needed to - they have about 25 windows open at any given time plus support staff to match.
 
Britsimon said:
I'm not sure about the capacity, although I do agree that could be a factor for AF in September. 200 cases doesn't sound like a lot to me - although would depend on the size of the embassy. For London for example, I'm sure they could 200 DV cases in a day if they needed to - they have about 25 windows open at any given time plus support staff to match.
Click to expand...
Let me say, heavy countries do have big capacity ! Nepal with 380 average interview a month, egypt includes sudanese nationals, poland includes belarus....
 
@Britsimon
You mean overstated as a number or what?Actually what bothers me is whats happening in CEAC data with specific Ready cases, to be more precise if carriers do not respond within the scheduled time of interview.Are they still in the game or are deleted?And because of this variable I am almost sure that September will be current for all regions with tunning on the fly.In my opinion KCC guys are trying to reduce error to a minimum, and Ready status is game killer.. AP cases could't have so much impact on global level max ~2000 visas according to previous Yearbooks of immigration statistics, even with increment in 2014.So how will they fill missing ~20000 visas /june CEAC with this slow movement in the last months without open gates :).
 
Rafikbo's point if I'm not mistaking !
Is would they accelerate at the last month process, if to quota is not filled-up?! I guess they will.
They just need to get rid of the dead readies.
 
Slikk said:
@Britsimon
You mean overstated as a number or what?Actually what bothers me is whats happening in CEAC data with specific Ready cases, to be more precise if carriers do not respond within the scheduled time of interview.Are they still in the game or are deleted?And because of this variable I am almost sure that September will be current for all regions with tunning on the fly.In my opinion KCC guys are trying to reduce error to a minimum, and Ready status is game killer.. AP cases could't have so much impact on global level max ~2000 visas according to previous Yearbooks of immigration statistics, even with increment in 2014.So how will they fill missing ~20000 visas /june CEAC with this slow movement in the last months without open gates :).
Click to expand...
This, unfortunately, is not the way I read available CEAC numbers - based on my understanding, this year's global quota will run out some time in September, before the 9/30 deadline. I'd personally wish you were right, though.
 
This is not based on understanding this is a fact :) . If you calculate all Issued visas and Ready with AP its > 54000.So according to this it's a game over dude, but its not :). So we are missing some step in this game and thats the number of dead Ready cases( with different causes) and lower density in higher numbers also a fact you can easy count this in excel table.And what could KCC do to lower error, wait till last VB and set current to all regions.Its only reasonable choice..
 
Slikk said:
This is not based on understanding this is a fact :) . If you calculate all Issued visas and Ready with AP its > 54000.So according to this it's a game over dude, but its not :). So we are missing some step in this game and thats the number of dead Ready cases( with different causes) and lower density in higher numbers also a fact you can easy count this in excel table.And what could KCC do to lower error, wait till last VB and set current to all regions.Its only reasonable choice..
Click to expand...
Sure, no problem - I wish you (and everyone else patiently waiting in line) well and hope you'all succeed in September.
 
Slikk said:
This is not based on understanding this is a fact :) . If you calculate all Issued visas and Ready with AP its > 54000.So according to this it's a game over dude, but its not :). ..
Click to expand...

That is a very good point. it is more than 54000 without data from July VB. That will add another 5k or more selectees to those 54k. So they have taken those dead Ready cases into account. The unknown is will they take into consideration success rate?
I don't think all regions will be current. Although i hope so. I don't think that KCC will regret if they give even less than 50k visas. I think they will play save and that will affect the total number of visas issued.
 
Well ok if they want to play safe without regret whats the different in cut off vs current in september.Anyway some percent of winners will be dissapointed, from my point of view current is less evil at least in a way that everyone see a possible chance, and ensure KCC more issued visas..
 
eliolaz said:
That is a very good point. it is more than 54000 without data from July VB. That will add another 5k or more selectees to those 54k. So they have taken those dead Ready cases into account. The unknown is will they take into consideration success rate?
I don't think all regions will be current. Although i hope so. I don't think that KCC will regret if they give even less than 50k visas. I think they will play save and that will affect the total number of visas issued.
Click to expand...
Slikk said:
Well ok if they want to play safe without regret whats the different in cut off vs current in september.Anyway some percent of winners will be dissapointed, from my point of view current is less evil at least in a way that everyone see a possible chance, and ensure KCC more issued visas..
Click to expand...

Past years show that KCC do NOT try to play it safe.

When DV2012 was running so far behind I know that people who had not returned forms were contacted by KCC telling them to check their esc pages. They are not happy just to sit back and not care if the visas don't get handed out.
 
vladek said:
Rafikbo's point if I'm not mistaking !
Is would they accelerate at the last month process, if to quota is not filled-up?! I guess they will.
They just need to get rid of the dead readies.
Click to expand...
Some good news tonight. A friend on the Kenyan thread was expecting his interview in Aug, yet they have scheduled his interview for July..... It might be too early to celebrate but it has got me excited. Seems there is some hope...... #Crossedfingers
 
SusieQQQ said:
Past years show that KCC do NOT try to play it safe.

When DV2012 was running so far behind I know that people who had not returned forms were contacted by KCC telling them to check their esc pages. They are not happy just to sit back and not care if the visas don't get handed out.
Click to expand...

I hope they don't play save, but from what i have seen from the last 2 years when there was cut off for most of the regions i.e. 2004 and 2005 they gave a bit over 48k visas.1,9K selectees in high CN can make a difference. I see they have changed a bit since then. Don't get me wrong with my number EU48k nearly 49 i still hope i will be current. Just i am less hopeful after the last VB.
 
Slikk said:
@Britsimon
You mean overstated as a number or what?Actually what bothers me is whats happening in CEAC data with specific Ready cases, to be more precise if carriers do not respond within the scheduled time of interview.Are they still in the game or are deleted?And because of this variable I am almost sure that September will be current for all regions with tunning on the fly.In my opinion KCC guys are trying to reduce error to a minimum, and Ready status is game killer.. AP cases could't have so much impact on global level max ~2000 visas according to previous Yearbooks of immigration statistics, even with increment in 2014.So how will they fill missing ~20000 visas /june CEAC with this slow movement in the last months without open gates :).
Click to expand...

The data Dalius was using took each selectee and derivative with their status. There were lots of cases where the principal selectee had been approved (or denied, or AP) and the derivatives for that case were still marked as ready. That is not correct. If the main applicant is denied the others are denied. If the main applicant is approved the others are probably approved. CEAC data wasn't being accurately updated (still isn't) but the way the data was collected fed through a larger inaccuracy to Dalius' graphs.

The read cases with dates in the past are not officially dead. If the applicant wanted to revive the case they could contact KCC and get it rescheduled. However, in practice, I doubt that would happen often. I also doubt it is having much if any impact on the VB movement. People reviving their cases still would need to go back to KCC so there is no need to keep their spots open for them - KCC are already taken into account that they are unlikely to revive.

As for all regions going current - feel free to believe that - but that view cannot be supported by the data.
 
Hmm interesting but honestly I doubt in (CEAC errors) on long term period.Simple because this is important data, we could see some wrong data in transition but not on long run.If you can prove with exact match I am willing to accept.

I agree on second part with you except possibility for current status, we got too many unknowns and you must agree current ensures more issued visas than cuto-ffs at the end :).
 
Slikk said:
Hmm interesting but honestly I doubt in (CEAC errors) on long term period.Simple because this is important data, we could see some wrong data in transition but not on long run.If you can prove with exact match I am willing to accept.

I agree on second part with you except possibility for current status, we got too many unknowns and you must agree current ensures more issued visas than cuto-ffs at the end :).
Click to expand...

I have already proven that and shown exactly how the errors get into the statistics. It isn't in dispute at all - up to you whether you accept it or not.

I agree that you can get a glass completely full if you fill it to overflowing, but you also create a mess and that is more work your yourself. Is that what you do when you fill a glass?

You seem to think KCC will go through the work of trying to schedule THOUSANDS of interviews in the certain knowledge that those interviews will need to be cancelled. People would spend money on medicals, police certificates and travelling to interviews purely to have those appointments cancelled at the last minute. They might do that for a few people because they make a mistake in calculations, BUT I really do not think they would do that deliberately. Do you?

And then of course there is the small detail that current is defined in every visa bulletin as meaning there are enough visas to satisfy predicted demand.
 
Britsimon said:
I have already proven that and shown exactly how the errors get into the statistics. It isn't in dispute at all - up to you whether you accept it or not.

I agree that you can get a glass completely full if you fill it to overflowing, but you also create a mess and that is more work your yourself. Is that what you do when you fill a glass?

You seem to think KCC will go through the work of trying to schedule THOUSANDS of interviews in the certain knowledge that those interviews will need to be cancelled. People would spend money on medicals, police certificates and travelling to interviews purely to have those appointments cancelled at the last minute. They might do that for a few people because they make a mistake in calculations, BUT I really do not think they would do that deliberately. Do you?

And then of course there is the small detail that current is defined in every visa bulletin as meaning there are enough visas to satisfy predicted demand.
Click to expand...
"I agree that you can get a glass completely full if you fill it to overflowing" ... very fitting analogy, Britsimon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top