Retrogression: Doing the Math

berkeleybee said:
Maybe the coffee hasn't kicked in, and I'm missing something.

BTW, where did you find those estimates of the number of employment immigrant numbers for India? Remember also that the numbers you report reflect the recapture of unused visas from previous years; the AC21 recaptured immigrant numbers are all used up. So we cannot assume that your 25% trend will continue.

BTW, I did ask my attorney if my calculations made sense but she hasn't got back to me.

What I want to know is whether there is a source that reports employment based labor cert applications by country. That is the vital figure -- how many Indian EB-1, 2 and 3 applicants are pickling in the backlog.
Click to expand...


I was stimulated to analyze available data with the OIS (http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/index.htm) after reading your initial posting; I agree there is a great sense of comfort in numbers, assuming the underlying assumptions are sane; numbers give one a great sense/illusion of control/predictability over one's currently very uncertain/morbid immigration future here in the US.

In any case, I was wondering if u had the time to play with the OIS provided archive data and should u do that, by how much would you alter ur current projections ?
 
Raj1994 said:
One thing to consider:

The per category limit for a country is not 28.6% of 9800. The 28.6% applies to the total among all countries, and is 28.6% of the 140,000.

In other words the 9800 per country could be distributed unequally among EB1, EB2, and EB3, subject to the constraint that the total of EB1 (or EB2 or EB3) from all countries does not exceed 28.6% of 140,000.

Looking at the visa bulletins, there seems to be a different quota for dependents. Can someone comment?
Click to expand...

Yes you are right about different quota for dependents, the floowing data demonstrates that:

For every FY the bracketed number is the per country limit number for the FY and the other number is the actual number of immigrant visas (Family + Employment) issued in the year to India, that number is mostly (4 out of 7 times) way greater than the limit thus proving that the dependents are not counted towards the quota.

2005, ? (26211)-The actual issued not know since still last month of 05
2004, 51750 (30130)
2003, 35919 (25620)
2002, 54287 (25704)
2001, 54453 (29204)
2000, 29824 (30583)
1999, 20541 (27083)
1998, 24908 (25620)

All information collated from DOS Visa Bulletins and OIS data.
 
This is my view for current retrogression. Please read and comment.

Retrogration is a simple theory of supply (availibility of visa number) and Demand(Valid applications in this category).
take the example of EB2 for Indian Category.
USCIS has reviewed situation on August 10, 2005 and found supply demand is under control and decalare EB2 category current for September 2005. logically, If demand was more, they would have retrograte this category in September only. They didn't means demand and supply was balance as per their criteria.

Now they reviewed situation on September 9, 2005 and decalared retrogration to Nov. 1999. This means; they recieved more application between Aug. 10 to Sept. 9, which created Demand > Supply. Technically in case of retrogration they need to give oldest priority date, which has pending case. May be they have very few cases that old.
Now guess, how many application they might have recieved more than supply between Aug 9 to Sept 10? 2800? 5600? 8400?

If they recieved 2700 applications more than supply during Aug 10 and Sept 9 (and assume they will recieve 100 new applications, which have PD before Nov. 99), after one year the category will be current again (because yearly EB2 quota for indian is 2800). If it was 5600, it will take two years to be Current again.

The persons who have already filed I 485, need not to be worry much.

Please comment all including attorny.
 
hello
that sounds optimistic.
i have an approved I -140 (Eb-1). i was planning to file for 485/ead/ap next week. Now in view of ths retrogression, would my Ead/AP be processed even though I understand that my 485 would have to wait till my Pd is reached.
All opinions welcome
thanks
 
niraj724 said:
hello
that sounds optimistic.
i have an approved I -140 (Eb-1). i was planning to file for 485/ead/ap next week. Now in view of ths retrogression, would my Ead/AP be processed even though I understand that my 485 would have to wait till my Pd is reached.
All opinions welcome
thanks
Click to expand...

Yes. But your 485 application better reach their doorstep by/before (?) Sep 30th.
 
explanation seems good, how would you explain EB3 then in the same context

Jan 1st they had a cutoff of Jan02 so in 6 months they got so many applications in EB3 that they had to cutoff by another 4 yrs.

Also PERM flood was in EB2 not EB3, so EB2 you could still say that they got the count so huge in Aug-Sept that it had to end up in huge BL or 99
priyargc said:
This is my view for current retrogression. Please read and comment.

Retrogration is a simple theory of supply (availibility of visa number) and Demand(Valid applications in this category).
take the example of EB2 for Indian Category.
USCIS has reviewed situation on August 10, 2005 and found supply demand is under control and decalare EB2 category current for September 2005. logically, If demand was more, they would have retrograte this category in September only. They didn't means demand and supply was balance as per their criteria.

Now they reviewed situation on September 9, 2005 and decalared retrogration to Nov. 1999. This means; they recieved more application between Aug. 10 to Sept. 9, which created Demand > Supply. Technically in case of retrogration they need to give oldest priority date, which has pending case. May be they have very few cases that old.
Now guess, how many application they might have recieved more than supply between Aug 9 to Sept 10? 2800? 5600? 8400?

If they recieved 2700 applications more than supply during Aug 10 and Sept 9 (and assume they will recieve 100 new applications, which have PD before Nov. 99), after one year the category will be current again (because yearly EB2 quota for indian is 2800). If it was 5600, it will take two years to be Current again.

The persons who have already filed I 485, need not to be worry much.

Please comment all including attorny.
Click to expand...
 
Collective action

It is fine that people do the math and discuss about possible priority dates, but what about a collective effort to raise this issue with Rajeev and eventually AILA / BCIS ?
It needs some effort , but that is the only option now.
 
Yet whosoever filed after PERM approval, got in as backlog

already and they added to the count of people seeking visa numbers once their applications are accepted and the number of applications already in the system are good enough for next 5 years of visa numbers consumption, hence the dates backed up by 5 years..there are lot of approvals of 485 from 2005 here in the fourm iteself, thus
Jackolantern said:
All PERM cases would have priority dates in 2005, so they cannot push the priority date back to pre-2000.
Click to expand...
 
nato said:
already and they added to the count of people seeking visa numbers once their applications are accepted and the number of applications already in the system are good enough for next 5 years of visa numbers consumption, hence the dates backed up by 5 years..there are lot of approvals of 485 from 2005 here in the fourm iteself, thus
Click to expand...

As far as I know, pending 485 applications from people with priority dates after the cutoff date will remain pending till their dates become current. Are you speculating or do you have confirmation that pending 485 applications will get visa numbers allocated to them regardless of their priority date?
 
nato said:
Jan 1st they had a cutoff of Jan02 so in 6 months they got so many applications in EB3 that they had to cutoff by another 4 yrs.

Also PERM flood was in EB2 not EB3, so EB2 you could still say that they got the count so huge in Aug-Sept that it had to end up in huge BL or 99
Click to expand...
Correct me if I'm wrong. My explanation for Eb3:

Schedule A is "Current" due to 50K extra quota;

USCIS will adjudicate and approve all Schedule A, including the people filed today. Technically, if there is no name check, Schedule A could get 485 approved in weeks/months;

Before Schedule A goes to 50K extra quota, Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3 at the same time as EB3 1997 inidan-2001 other country people.

In one word, when Schedule A bill passed, it looks a relief for EB3. However, it's disastrous bill for regular EB3 now.

If I were USCIS director, I would have asked my employee to hold all Schedule A case and adjudicate/approve regular EB3 first, and start from July/2006, when regular EB3 quota is used up, to adjudicate/approve Schedule A, from 50K pool.
But I am not a USCIS director of any service center.

My conclusion: as long as schedule A is current, it's nonsense to track 97/98 PD guys. However few 97/98 guys left, Schedule A will consume a significant quantity of regular EB3 quota.
Please comment.
 
Jackolantern said:
All PERM cases would have priority dates in 2005, so they cannot push the priority date back to pre-2000.
Click to expand...



...and why can't they push it back? In my opinion, this is a simple means of throttling to untangle the huge mess; I think we guys have definitely seen highway ramp metering in action and this is to first clear the huge traffic jam already in place.
Lets just think -

- There aren't really any meaningful unapproved LCs in significant numbers.
- I am not sure if there is a significant backlog of pending I-140s either (I could be wrong on this one).
- So, this appears to be measure of restoring some sanity and order to the green card processing much in line with the FIFO system being touted
by the labor department for the backlog centers & also in line with something like the 6 month overall processing time announced (to reach this
timeframce sometime in the near future they would need to first clear out the current confusion).

- So here is my theory :
* after the current retrogrssion implemented implemented they will first clean out any remaining 99/98(and prior) GCs that are still hanging
irrespective of whatever stage it is in.
* in the meantime they will have a stream of LCs approved from BECS & from PERM; both of which can apply for 140 but not I-485 (so that backlogged I-485s do
not become any more a mess than they are).

* once any remaining 99/98 applications are cleared they retrogression will move to say for example 2001 (Feb) and so on in stages.
So, the basic prinicpal is going to be to allow batches of people who got LCs approved from BECs to merge into the current pool of
485s and fairly get the GC in order of priority dates. At the same time as time progresses the I-140 pending pool and I-485 pending pool
will get orderly and cleaned up to a resasonable extent.
 
Binary search?

Look at the wild retrogression and progression in the "other worker" category over the last few months. Looks like the USCIS is implementing some kind of brain dead binary search algorithm to figure out where the devil the backlog is. If that's indeed true... get ready for a one-number rollercoaster ride :).

concorde said:
...and why can't they push it back? In my opinion, this is a simple means of throttling to untangle the huge mess; I think we guys have definitely seen highway ramp metering in action and this is to first clear the huge traffic jam already in place.
Lets just think -

- There aren't really any meaningful unapproved LCs in significant numbers.
- I am not sure if there is a significant backlog of pending I-140s either (I could be wrong on this one).
- So, this appears to be measure of restoring some sanity and order to the green card processing much in line with the FIFO system being touted
by the labor department for the backlog centers & also in line with something like the 6 month overall processing time announced (to reach this
timeframce sometime in the near future they would need to first clear out the current confusion).

- So here is my theory :
* after the current retrogrssion implemented implemented they will first clean out any remaining 99/98(and prior) GCs that are still hanging
irrespective of whatever stage it is in.
* in the meantime they will have a stream of LCs approved from BECS & from PERM; both of which can apply for 140 but not I-485 (so that backlogged I-485s do
not become any more a mess than they are).

* once any remaining 99/98 applications are cleared they retrogression will move to say for example 2001 (Feb) and so on in stages.
So, the basic prinicpal is going to be to allow batches of people who got LCs approved from BECs to merge into the current pool of
485s and fairly get the GC in order of priority dates. At the same time as time progresses the I-140 pending pool and I-485 pending pool
will get orderly and cleaned up to a resasonable extent.
Click to expand...
 
I dont follow what you are saying here... could you please elaborate? For example what exactly do you mean by:
"Before Schedule A goes to 50K extra quota, Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3 at the same time as EB3 1997 inidan-2001 other country people.
In one word, when Schedule A bill passed, it looks a relief for EB3. However, it's disastrous bill for regular EB3 now."

---Are you talking about the new immigration bill (McCain Kennedy bill) here? I heard that it increases the visa quota to 290000, so it is beneficial to us. Are you saying otherwise? And could you also explain what you mean by "Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3"

Thank you - I am still so confused about this whole thing, howmuchever I try to understand. Why do they have to make such a complicated system.




jnpr said:
Correct me if I'm wrong. My explanation for Eb3:

Schedule A is "Current" due to 50K extra quota;

USCIS will adjudicate and approve all Schedule A, including the people filed today. Technically, if there is no name check, Schedule A could get 485 approved in weeks/months;

Before Schedule A goes to 50K extra quota, Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3 at the same time as EB3 1997 inidan-2001 other country people.

In one word, when Schedule A bill passed, it looks a relief for EB3. However, it's disastrous bill for regular EB3 now.

If I were USCIS director, I would have asked my employee to hold all Schedule A case and adjudicate/approve regular EB3 first, and start from July/2006, when regular EB3 quota is used up, to adjudicate/approve Schedule A, from 50K pool.
But I am not a USCIS director of any service center.

My conclusion: as long as schedule A is current, it's nonsense to track 97/98 PD guys. However few 97/98 guys left, Schedule A will consume a significant quantity of regular EB3 quota.
Please comment.
Click to expand...
 
not clear

Hello,

I dont follow what you are saying here... could you please elaborate? For example what exactly do you mean by:
"Before Schedule A goes to 50K extra quota, Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3 at the same time as EB3 1997 inidan-2001 other country people.
In one word, when Schedule A bill passed, it looks a relief for EB3. However, it's disastrous bill for regular EB3 now."

---Are you talking about the new immigration bill (McCain Kennedy bill) here? I heard that it increases the visa quota to 290000, so it is beneficial to us. Are you saying otherwise? And could you also explain what you mean by "Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3"

Thank you - I am still so confused about this whole thing, howmuchever I try to understand. Why do they have to make such a complicated system.




jnpr said:
Correct me if I'm wrong. My explanation for Eb3:

Schedule A is "Current" due to 50K extra quota;

USCIS will adjudicate and approve all Schedule A, including the people filed today. Technically, if there is no name check, Schedule A could get 485 approved in weeks/months;

Before Schedule A goes to 50K extra quota, Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3 at the same time as EB3 1997 inidan-2001 other country people.

In one word, when Schedule A bill passed, it looks a relief for EB3. However, it's disastrous bill for regular EB3 now.

If I were USCIS director, I would have asked my employee to hold all Schedule A case and adjudicate/approve regular EB3 first, and start from July/2006, when regular EB3 quota is used up, to adjudicate/approve Schedule A, from 50K pool.
But I am not a USCIS director of any service center.

My conclusion: as long as schedule A is current, it's nonsense to track 97/98 PD guys. However few 97/98 guys left, Schedule A will consume a significant quantity of regular EB3 quota.
Please comment.
Click to expand...
 
nato said:
Jan 1st they had a cutoff of Jan02 so in 6 months they got so many applications in EB3 that they had to cutoff by another 4 yrs.

Also PERM flood was in EB2 not EB3, so EB2 you could still say that they got the count so huge in Aug-Sept that it had to end up in huge BL or 99
Click to expand...

Remeber that Visa Numbers from EB3 first go to Schedule A Workers. Once there is no demand from there then the other categories in EB3 will get the numbers.
 
jnpr said:
Correct me if I'm wrong. My explanation for Eb3:

Schedule A is "Current" due to 50K extra quota;

USCIS will adjudicate and approve all Schedule A, including the people filed today. Technically, if there is no name check, Schedule A could get 485 approved in weeks/months;

Before Schedule A goes to 50K extra quota, Schedule A will use up a large percent of regular EB3 at the same time as EB3 1997 inidan-2001 other country people.

In one word, when Schedule A bill passed, it looks a relief for EB3. However, it's disastrous bill for regular EB3 now.

If I were USCIS director, I would have asked my employee to hold all Schedule A case and adjudicate/approve regular EB3 first, and start from July/2006, when regular EB3 quota is used up, to adjudicate/approve Schedule A, from 50K pool.
But I am not a USCIS director of any service center.

My conclusion: as long as schedule A is current, it's nonsense to track 97/98 PD guys. However few 97/98 guys left, Schedule A will consume a significant quantity of regular EB3 quota.
Please comment.
Click to expand...

I am not really getting how you are coming up with that conclusion, but also believe that same.
I believe as long as EB3 tech workers share the same cateogry with Schedule A workers, we are not going get a single Visa until the demand in Schedule A workers goes down.
They already have extra 50K visa numbers and above that get the first shot at any regular numbers from the general EB3 pool.

Guys the sooner this is understood, the sooner you will realize that the dates are not going to move an inch forward for years to come.
 
dbwr said:
Very Nice....Math Guys...hear..
Hope, US wont loss these adept persons...
:) :) :) :) :) :)

Bottom line, The things that will solve the problems...

2. Capture additional Visa Numbers of 60k Avilable from 2001 to 2004, to solve allready 485 filed peoples hunger.
3. Increase the number of annual limit which will solve world hunger
4. Monthly quota limit instead of three months, which will solve 140 approved and waiting people's hunger.
5. Extension of EAD for three years..for people whose FBI/Name Check is pending. for them

Hope they consider all of themmm...to solve every ones hunger...
Click to expand...

You missed the most important "Abolish Labor Substitution".
And another one, separate the Tech Workers from Schedule A workers (both in EB3) and give them different pool of numbers.

Increase in Visa numbers and keeping Labor Substitution is not going to help at all. It will only help the bhadwaas. The dates wont move as most of the 45 days letter will come back to the backlog center with proceed even though the employee would have already left the company.

Unfortunately very few people on this forum seem to have the same opinion. I am not asking to invalidate all Labor Substituions done until now, just abolish future LS's.

neocor
 
berkeleybee said:
(...) BTW, I did ask my attorney if my calculations made sense but she hasn't got back to me.
Click to expand...


This is good. You are all so cute!
Let me guess. She will NEVER get back to you.-))



If you go to the lawyer - you will ALWAYS hear the processing time to be up to 2 years!
You can go to many offices and all of these people will NOT speak to you until the BOSS (Owner) speaks with you.
They will NEVER explain anything.
They want your money fool.


(Employees are not allowed to speak with customers because otherwise they would have to lie which is not their job!)
 
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