Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

Adjustment of Status

What the Department of State is claiming is that the USCIS is eating the numbers on Adjustment of Status...DOES THIS MEAN THAT WHEN YOU APPLY FOR ADJUSTMENT OF STATUS EVEN THOUGH YOUR NOTICE DATE IS JUNE 2004 YOU CAN STILL BE APPROVED??? Does anyone have seen some threads that they are getting their green card when they filed their AOS only in June 2004??? If that would be the case...they are eating a lot of visas...

dale
 
still_dale said:
What the Department of State is claiming is that the USCIS is eating the numbers on Adjustment of Status...DOES THIS MEAN THAT WHEN YOU APPLY FOR ADJUSTMENT OF STATUS EVEN THOUGH YOUR NOTICE DATE IS JUNE 2004 YOU CAN STILL BE APPROVED??? Does anyone have seen some threads that they are getting their green card when they filed their AOS only in June 2004??? If that would be the case...they are eating a lot of visas...

dale

Dale,
We have to put the question in 485 thread... to get the feed back
 
nishokie said:
well it seems like its only gonna get worse for the rest of 2005.

VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE REMAINDER OF FY-2005

Employment-based: During the past month there has been a significant increase in the amount of numbers being used by Citizenship and Immigration Service (CIS) offices for adjustment of status applicants. This level of demand has significantly depleted the supply of Employment-based numbers available under the annual limit. Recent discussions with CIS have made it clear that their backlog reduction efforts will sustain or increase the current level of demand. Therefore, continued visa availability in the Employment-based categories cannot be guaranteed during the final quarter of FY-2005. If demand continues at the current rate, it will be necessary to oversubscribe many or all of the Employment categories on a Worldwide basis. Such oversubscription could result in the establishment of cut-off dates, retrogression of already established dates, or some categories becoming “unavailable”.

How can this LEVEL OF DEMAND could exhaust the visa numbers when it only permits them to use 27% per quarter...This is only the JUNE visa bulletin..JUNE is still part of the 3rd quarter...

USCIS IS SO SLOW in processing how can they exhaust all the numbers???

dale
 
still_dale said:
only 27% according to law of 140,000EB numbers
dale

According to a famous attorney firm this 27% total available visa numbers.
And DOS was fully aware of the fact that additional visa numbers from AC-21 and other sources ware available while setting the priority dates in the beginning of this year.
So they have taken those numbers into consideration
 
These predictions in the Visa Bulletin are issued by the DOS, which is the government department responsible for tracking and issuing visa numbers. They are the most reliable source for this information, but their predictions are based upon demand estimates. The uncertainty regarding demand is part of the reason that this matter is not an exact science and why even the DOS can only provide very educated guesses regarding what can be expected.
From Murthy DoTcom...

I really cannot understand DOS...when they say that their predictions are only based on their demand estimates... IF i am working at DOS and the USCIS and i have access to the numbers and pending applications...I CAN RELIABLY PREDICT THE NUMBERS...Something must be going inside on those offices that they are not discussing...I think the Iraqi Bill and the LAST QUARTER OF JULY THAT IS COMING are the ones they are preparing for..
They should hire the best mathematicians here...HEHEHE..

It is not fair when only AOS applicants are getting their green cards when in fact they are already in the U.S. working and earning...

I think the only ones that would benefit here are the ones who are under Schedule A... :mad:
 
Dear Tammy:

If the DOS and the famous attorney said that these or all of the numbers have been taking into consideration... why does the DOS HAVE CONFLICTS ON THEIR PUBLIC STATMENTS???Like they are preventing retrogression...like when they say that additional numbers would be available and it would somehow ease the backlogs...Their demand estimates are not CONSISTENT with other ESTIMATES THAT THEY MADE...

Well I am sure that the USCIS KNOWS HOW MANY PENDING APPLICATION on their office already...they could have relayed the message to DOS...But what DOS is saying is that they only PREDICT that the demand for numbers would only increase...BUT WE ALL KNOW THAT VISA NUMBER PREDICTION CAN BE DEFINED, COMPUTED AND CALCULATED BASED ON EXACT SCIENCE AND MATH AND THE LAWS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND...

The statements made by DOS WERE VERY CONTRADICTING...WELL SINCE THE LAW ON SCHEDULE A WAS ENACTED...

DALE
 
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Outdated Immigration Laws Are Killing U.s. Economy

These outdated immigration laws are killing the U.S. Economy... In a statement made by the world's richest man Microsoft CEO Bill Gates said "why is there a quota on H1-B...it is like saying don't let the smart people get in..."

This is true, they are preventing talented, well-educated, smart people from entering U.S. People that should have been already contributing to the U.S. economy and paying taxes. This is sad, just because we are born in the wrong countries that we have to face so much delays in our visa processings. I know that we are not US senators and US congressmen but I think that the DOS should provide a more complete detail, statistical figures and mathematical figures on the level of demand of visa numbers and NOT JUST SAY THAT THEY ARE BASING THEIR FIGURES ON ESTIMATES AND PREDICTIONS. What is their basis? THE SIZE OF THE MOON, LOW TIDE OR HIGH OF THE WAVES? THE HEAT OF THE SUN?

I THINK THAT THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE HOLDS A "MAGIC CRYSTAL BALL"...yeah that is more of a reality...and they would rub that ball and say..."oh mighty magic crystal ball of visa numbers... oh tell us what would be the priority dates cause we have no way of knowing how to do a simple math...

OR MAYBE THE DOS BOSSES WOULD PLAY DARTS AND THEY WOULD PUT DATES ON THEIR DARTS AND START TO TARGET them...whatever comes up would be the dates that would be publish in the visa bulletin...

dale
 
I just dont understand what their predictions mean for the rest of FY'05
does it mean even though there will be more visa numbers available in last quarter bcos of strong demand from CIS we dont want to take the cut off out and reimpose in Fy06 again.
is that what it really means thats against the all the laws passed why do even care about passing laws in this country any more

/S
 
http://www.immigration-law.com/



05/14/2005: Grim Outlook of Visa Numbers and Importance of Management of Nonimmigrant Status and Priority Date for a Long Journey

The State Department's prediction of visa numbers is indeed grim in that China and India numbers can be more negatively affected and the disease named "retrogression" is expected to spread to other nationalities throughout the world. Retrogression of visa numbers will certainly help the Bush administration to achieve a reduction of EB-485 applications as promised as the USCIS' workload for EB-485 may be reduced due to moving of some of EB-485 applications in the pipeline into a dormant stage and reduced number of new EB-485 cases coming into the pipeline as affected by the visa numbers.
All in all, this is a good news for those EB-immigrants who started the labor certification journey with an earlier priority date, but a bad news for those who either started recently or will have to start in the future the labor certification journey. For the first group, they will still have to deal with the backlog problem in the DOL Backlog Reduction Program, but it is anticipated that once the Backlog Processing Centers pass the phase of data entry and move to the processing and adjudication of applications, the cases may be able to move along in a fairly good pace. Additionally, once they move out of the labor certification pipeline, their waiting time for I-140 and I-485 will be fairly short as the I-485 processing time is expected to be reduced to close to six month by the end of new year and a large number of the people in this group may not have a serious priority date problem. For this group, retaining and preserving the priority date will be "extremely" important. For some of these people, waivering or refiling of labor certification under the PERM program may turn out to be a suicide because of the potential loss of the priority date. As the visa number retrogression turns worse, it is thus anticipated that refiling of the labor ceritfication application by those in the Backlog Processing Centers may be drastically reduced unless the DOL changes the PERM regulation. The recent devastating news of massive denials of PERM applications suggest the extremely high risk of refiling of Backlog cases! There is no official statistics released by the DOL, but the available information indicates that there is no single known cases of approval of the PERM applications thus far. There are widespread reports of massive denials of the PERM applications in a matter of a few hours of filing. The PERM is of no help at all for those in the Backlog group. Patience should be a gold for the people in this group of the earliest start of the journey. The terrible pains which they have gone through will soon be paid off inasmuch as they do not misstep in the journey. Just don't waiver!
The new visa number prediction and outlook hit hard those who will have to start the journey hereon. The accelerated reduction of immigration visa and I-485 processing times will aggravate the visa number problem further and further and ongoing trend of reduced processing times for labor certification under the PERM and USCIS I-485 applications will mean nothing to them. The PERM application will eventually work as planned by the DOL, but the approval of the applications from 45 days to 60 days will lead them nowhere as they will not be able to file the green card application for a long period of time because of the visa number problem. During the period of their wait, they will not be able to obtain EAD. Neither can they change employment as AC 21 180-day rule will not be available. It is thus extremely important for the people in this group to learn to plan and manage their nonimmigrant status carefully for a prolonged period of time at least until they reach the date of their visa number availability. For those in H-1B, extension of H-1B beyond six years may face no problem. Change of employment may turn out to be deadly as they may lose everything, including the priority date. In this long journey, preserving and retaining priority date will remain the prime most important guiding light for their course of action. As for the priority date, here are a few things they should remember: (1) Priority date is the date when the labor certification application is "receipted" by the DOL in the labor certification-based cases and the date when I-140 petition is "receipted" by the USCIS in the labor certification waiver cases such as Schedule A, National Interest Waiver, and EB-1 categories of Extraordinary worker, Outstanding Researcher, and Multinational Corporate Executive/Manager petitions, plus EB-4 and EB-5 such as Special Immigrant Petitions for religious workers and other special immigrants and Investor Immigrants. When the filing is rejected by the DOL or USCIS, no priority date is attached to the filing. The deadly flaws include missing signatures on the forms and filing fees, if any. (2) Once attached, the priority date remains in tact inasmuch as the application is not withdrawn or revoked or denied, and I-140 petition is filed and approved. From hereon, the alien beneficiary carries his/her priority date on his/her back, even if there is a change of employment, so long as the I-140 is not withdrawn or revoked. For instance, if a new employer files a new labor certification application which is approved, the I-140 petition by the new employer will be approved with an old priority date inasmuch as the employer submits the evidence of earlier labor certification and I-140 approval by the former employer.Even if the employer withdraws or revokes the I-140 petition, his/her priority date will not be lost if the employer withdraws or revokes the I-140 petition after 180 days of filing of EB-485 application under AC 21 Act. Once the priority date is attached, it can be transferred between different categories of EB petitions of EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3. In the substitution of alien beneficiary of the approved labor certification, the substituting new employee will take over the initial priority date which was established by initial filing of the labor certification application on behalf of the former substituted alien beneficiary. For instance, if the employer filed a labor certification application on behalf of X on January 1, 2001, which has been approved, but the alien beneficiary left the job or was terminated from the employment. The employer then hires another employee who has the qualifications required for the approved application on or before January 1, 2001 and substitutes the alien beneficiary for the approved labor certification on May 14, 2005. The priority date for the new employee will be not May 14, 2005 but January 1, 2001.
People should also keep in mind the law of cross chargeability if the spouses were born in two different countries. Welcome aboard the rocky sailboat of the agonizing long journey of the lawyers!
 
Retrogression confusion.

I am trying to understand the implications of the amended AC21. Here is the text with the amendment that they put up in the conference papers and later got promulgated. As the exact text is yet to be made available at the thomas site, at the time of this writing, I have done the cut & paste indicated in the conference agreement:

(1.Source for the pre 05/11/2005 AC21 is http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=106_cong_public_laws&docid=f:publ313.106
2.Source for the conference report is again from thomas)


(d) Recapture <<NOTE: 8 USC 1153 note.>> of Unused Employment-Based
Immigrant Visas.--
(1) In general.--Notwithstanding any other provision of law,
the number of employment-based visas (as defined in paragraph
(3)) made available for a fiscal year (beginning with fiscal
year 2001) shall be increased by the number described in
paragraph (2). Visas made available under this subsection shall
only be available in a fiscal year to employment-based
immigrants under paragraph (1), (2), or (3) of section 203(b) of
the Immigration and Nationality Act and any such visa that is made available due to the difference between the number of employment-based visas that were made available in fiscal year 2001, 2002, 2003, or 2004 and the number of such visas that were actually used in such fiscal year shall be available only to employment-based immigrants (and their family members accompanying or following to join under section 203(d) of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(d))) whose immigrant worker petitions were approved based on schedule A, as defined in section 656.5 of title 20, Code of Federal Regulations, as promulgated by the Secretary of Labor';
(2) Number available.--
(A) In general.--Subject to subparagraph (B), the
number described in this paragraph is the difference
between the number of employment-based visas that were
made available in fiscal years 1999 and 2000 through 2004
and the number of such visas that were actually used in such
fiscal years.
(B)(i) Reduction.--The number described in subparagraph
(A) shall be reduced, for each fiscal year after fiscal
year 2001, by the cumulative number of immigrant visas
actually used under paragraph (1) for previous fiscal
years.
`(ii) MAXIMUM- The total number of visas actually used under
paragraph (1) may not exceed 50,000.'.

(C) Construction.--Nothing in this paragraph shall
be construed as affecting the application of section
201(c)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8
U.S.C. 1151(c)(3)(C)).
(3) Employment-based visas defined.--For purposes of this
subsection, the term ``employment-based visa'' means an
immigrant visa which is issued pursuant to the numerical
limitation under section 203(b) of the Immigration and
Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)).


I suspect this capping with the 'Maximum' proviso is what has made the DOS very cautious and clamp down so heavily.

Total Emplyment based immigrants acc to USCIS Statistical Yearbooks
(http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/)

Total annual limt on employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.
(Ref for eg http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/9903bulletin.htm)

Year Utilization Annual Limit
1999 56,817 cap 140,000 Unused 83,183
2000 107,024 cap 140,000 Unused 32,976

These numbers indicate 116,159 available for recapture per erstwhile AC21.
DOS bulletin was indicating some 130K or so. May be someone can find their statistcs site and reconcile this.

Continuing with the numbers:

Year Utilization Annual Limit
2001 used 179,195 quota 140,000 Used from { 39,195
2002 used 174,968 quota 140,000 recaptured? { 34,968
Tot used frm recaptured 74 ,163

2003 used 82,137 quota 140,000 Unused 57,863
2004 used Not Avlbl quota 140,000 Unused Not Known

Cururrently updated AC21 is

1.extending the recapture period upto 2004
2.restricting usage of newly recaptured visas to only Sch A Occupations
3.limiting the total usage of recatured visas to 50,000.

Things do not add up. Does the current amendment previous excess usage illegal? Cannot be, because it was perfectly legal when it was used. So, we have already used over 50K now they are trying to cap. Can you use the recapture from 2003 for Sch A? Looks like NO because you would cross the mandated 50K cap. Can you stretch it and say, we can use 50K afresh for Sch A – It is a huge stretch, the departmental attorneys would not give such a huge stretch (of course, without a famous last name!?) even this Attorney General may not be willing to stretch it that far and give such an opinion.

What is it that is missing in this equation? Is this a mischief of some congressional-aide that the conference version (now promulgated into law) has deviated so far away from the saner Senate version and created this mess?

No flames or lessons for me please, in these tense times.

If possible, get better numbers from other Gov Departments and explain this- Are the Sch A chaps getting anything at all in this bargain, besides loss ofor EB1,2,3?
 
Prediction of PD has become very subjective with respect to DOS. What ever we discuss does not mean anything anymore. We just have to put up with the contradictions of DOS and move on.
 
NYTE & Others,
What about this Mac-Kaine/Kennedy Bill? We can all do our bit to support this bill as that's the only hope left for us.
=========================================================
05/12/2005: Bi-Partisan Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill Introduced in the Senate


Family Unity and Backlog Reduction
• Immediate relatives of U.S. citizens are not counted against the 480,000 annual cap on family-sponsored green cards, thereby providing additional visas to the family preference categories
• The current per-country limit on green cards is raised slightly to clear up backlogs
• Income requirements for sponsoring a family member for a green card are changed from 125% of the federal poverty guidelines to 100%, and other obstacles are removed to ensure fairness
• The employment-based categories are revised to provide additional visas for employers who need to hire permanent workers, and the annual cap is raised from 140,000 to 290,000 Immigrant visas lost due to processing delays are recaptured for future allotments
 
Bottom line...

Bottom Line its a mess. No matter what we interpret no matter what law says its a mess right now. If appears to be there should be an amendment in law to provide more numbers. "AS IS" it looks like we have to wait for few more years (how many year? who knows). I could understand few of you guys anxiety as your PD's is as close as 3 months from current dates. I know you must be anxious to get your GC. But guys dont loose your hope as you may see your BIG day very soon. Imagine my plight, my PD is Sept 2004. My first GC PD was 10/2001 in EB2 got laid off in 05/2004 at 140 stage with CP option, 2nd LC applied in 09/2004 in EB2, Boston DOL approved in EB3 (Feb 2005), company did not fight and now stuck in EB3 retrogression.

Who knows when the PD will reach 09/2004. May be its time to be cool, relax, njoy a very very long vacation or may be go back to india and start some business. Just a thought.

_________________________________
I am not an attorney, Just my opinions.
 
Laborcleared,
I FEEL very bad for all of us. Yours is even worse but you're right...move on with life. No matter how much I try to NOT think about it, this frustration comes back that MUCH stronger. I just hate it.....but can not help it.
 
I knows some guys whose pd is 2001 and still waiting for I485 approval.Most of the visas will be consumed by then in the comming days.We don't know how long it will take.NOw DOS is talking abt EB3 will retrogress backwards.It is just like a pendulum
swings up and down.... and we are the people who are going to suffer...
 
lets hope for the best guys. my instinct is DOS is acting fairly conservative. Just a month back they said it will move forward slowly for FY 2006 and now they say it will move backward. So based on this my instinct says they are way conservative. As usual time will always give an answer, wait for another 3-4 months, things will fall in place. be optimistic, i have been in the same boat as labor cleared has been so be patient, things will fall in place.
 
Magic Mantra

Guys,
I know its too much of frustration to wait for GC for so many years. I wish we could just pluck it from a tree just like an apple or tea leaves but alas it is not that easy. But I am pretty hopeful that Gov. will do something to see these dates move forward. ohh ho wait a second before you guys jump in to say what is your source? what do you mean to say? where did you see? sort of questions. I DID NOT SEE ANYTHING ANYWHERE. But its only a hope I am trying to visualise and share with you. Afterall hope is the only thing which makes people live that better is going come to them tomorrow.

Look at the reservations made for Nurses and PT's, look at the H1B numbers being increased from 65k to 195k couple years back, look at Bi-partisan bill which is proposing to increase Immigration VIsa number to 290k from 140k. US will do what is better for her economy and her citizens in particular. If it is beneficial for US economy they will do anything and will go to any extent. Yes. you guys read it right. You have seen them doing extreme things in the past...like Iraq war despite severe opposition from many countries. Again if EB3 is going to retrogress too many years then do you think the business lobby will simply watch the drama of their business being suffered. NO WAY. Afterall they are ones who donate $$ millions for these political parties and for their election campaigns. Remember this is a capitalist country. So there surely will be light at the end of the tunnel. :p

I am pretty much hopeful that federal gov. will come up with some plan and will see that the date will be managable limits. If nothing happens in right direction, what the heck for me? I will pack up, go back to Hyderabad, India and open up a private school and make a living with family and friends. hahaha :D .

Guys do not loose hope. I am promising myself that I will not worry too much about my GC going forward though my PD is 09/2004. Wahi hoga jyo taqdeer mein likha hoga.

Good luck to you all

__________________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions.


appan said:
I knows some guys whose pd is 2001 and still waiting for I485 approval.Most of the visas will be consumed by then in the comming days.We don't know how long it will take.NOw DOS is talking abt EB3 will retrogress backwards.It is just like a pendulum
swings up and down.... and we are the people who are going to suffer...
 
LaborCleared said:
Guys,
I know its too much of frustration to wait for GC for so many years. I wish we could just pluck it from a tree just like an apple or tea leaves but alas it is not that easy. But I am pretty hopeful that Gov. will do something to see these dates move forward. ohh ho wait a second before you guys jump in to say what is your source? what do you mean to say? where did you see? sort of questions. I DID NOT SEE ANYTHING ANYWHERE. But its only a hope I am trying to visualise and share with you. Afterall hope is the only thing which makes people live that better is going come to them tomorrow.

Look at the reservations made for Nurses and PT's, look at the H1B numbers being increased from 65k to 195k couple years back, look at Bi-partisan bill which is proposing to increase Immigration VIsa number to 290k from 140k. US will do what is better for her economy and her citizens in particular. If it is beneficial for US economy they will do anything and will go to any extent. Yes. you guys read it right. You have seen them doing extreme things in the past...like Iraq war despite severe opposition from many countries. Again if EB3 is going to retrogress too many years then do you think the business lobby will simply watch the drama of their business being suffered. NO WAY. Afterall they are ones who donate $$ millions for these political parties and for their election campaigns. Remember this is a capitalist country. So there surely will be light at the end of the tunnel. :p

I am pretty much hopeful that federal gov. will come up with some plan and will see that the date will be managable limits. If nothing happens in right direction, what the heck for me? I will pack up, go back to Hyderabad, India and open up a private school and make a living with family and friends. hahaha :D .

Guys do not loose hope. I am promising myself that I will not worry too much about my GC going forward though my PD is 09/2004. Wahi hoga jyo taqdeer mein likha hoga.

Good luck to you all

__________________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions.

I agree with you :) . Keep smiling
 
EB3 to retrogress further according to shusterman.com

http://www.shusterman.com/siu.html#4

The Coming Disaster in Employment-Based Immigration

The "recapture" provision recently passed by the House of Representatives would recover only 50,000 of the 130,000 immigrant visas lost between 2001 and 2004, and would restrict their usage to registered nurses and physical therapists. This is more a band-aid than a cure.

Consider the numbers. In fiscal year 2005, U.S. employers were able to use 248,000 EB immigrant visas, almost double the 140,000 usually available. This is because they used the normal 140,000 quota plus 7,000 unused family-based immigrant visas from the year before plus 101,000 "recaptured" visas from a law enacted in 2000, popularly known as AC-21. By September 30, all of the recaptured visas will be used.
What happens starting on October 1, 2005, the beginning of fiscal year 2006, when the quota reverts to a mere 140,000 visas plus the visas reserved for RNs and PTs? It does not take a rocket scientist to predict that backlogs will continue to grow in most employment-based categories. This would be a tragedy for our country.

Still they are talking abt 101,000 recaptured visa in the third quarter.so we will have more visa in the third quarter?
 
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50000 iV's for RN & PT's

My understanding was these 50k for nurses & pt's were reserved from the numbers which were recaptured from the fiscal years 2001-2004. But I did not read anywhere that these 50k are reserved for nurses every year from the regular quota of EB numbers. Is this reservation is made every year from EB quota for nurses? I am not really sure.

appan said:
http://www.shusterman.com/siu.html#4

The Coming Disaster in Employment-Based Immigration

The "recapture" provision recently passed by the House of Representatives would recover only 50,000 of the 130,000 immigrant visas lost between 2001 and 2004, and would restrict their usage to registered nurses and physical therapists. This is more a band-aid than a cure.

Consider the numbers. In fiscal year 2005, U.S. employers were able to use 248,000 EB immigrant visas, almost double the 140,000 usually available. This is because they used the normal 140,000 quota plus 7,000 unused family-based immigrant visas from the year before plus 101,000 "recaptured" visas from a law enacted in 2000, popularly known as AC-21. By September 30, all of the recaptured visas will be used.
What happens starting on October 1, 2005, the beginning of fiscal year 2006, when the quota reverts to a mere 140,000 visas plus the visas reserved for RNs and PTs? It does not take a rocket scientist to predict that backlogs will continue to grow in most employment-based categories. This would be a tragedy for our country.

Still they are talking abt 101,000 recaptured visa in the third quarter.so we will have more visa in the third quarter?
 
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