Hi gp111,
thanks for the information. I was just wondering how long it would take to clear the backlog in both BEC? I checked the database and read some of the posts here. Based on the national database of permanent LC posted in January 2004, here is the result of the query grouped by event.
CASE_COUNT EVENT
411880 Certified
48965 Received Regional Office
9020 Remand Issued to State
7587 NOF Issued
5238 Reduction in Recruitment Denied
4467 Denied, Permanent
4324 Withdrawn
2422 Remand Issued to Employer
2048 Denial Affirmed by ALJ
1294 NOF Time Extension Granted
1256 NOF Rebuttal Received
719 Returned By Emp after Remand
583 Appeal Sent to ALJ
409 Returned By State after Remand
228 Denial Case Dismissed by ALJ
198 Reconsideration Denied
75 Returned after Red. Rec. Denied
61 Appeal Request Received
29 Analyst Changed
28 Reopened by Region (Reconsideration)
24 Denial Remanded to Region by ALJ
23 Forwarded to N/O
12 Returned from Archive
4 Certified, Temporary
2 Other Case Correspondence
1 NOF Rebuttal Due
1 Received Local Office
According to the memo, open cases won't be sent to BEC. So under the assumption that part of the this year's new applications can be set off by the cases completed this year and not all the cases are actually sent to BEC(i.e. CA only sends cases later than May 2003 to BEC), I think 45,000 ~ 50,000 could be a good guess for the total number of LC applications sent to BEC.
Based on your evaluation for the number of cases processed per day, it seems like it would take 180~200 work days for them to clear the backlog. Well, I'm highly suspicious of these number, b/c it looks too good to be true. Of course, we need to take huge overhead, such as training and reorganization into account and always remember how bureaucracy works in the real world. Nevertheless, I just can't help crossing my fingers for the tiniest hope that this could be true.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?