Outlook for FY2007

[GetGC2007]

EB2 for 2007

Hi ,

When ROW for EB2 are current now, then why they are predicting Demand for EB2.

They should have atleast moved EB2 to June '2003.And moreover the spill over from ROW EB1, and EB2 first come to EB2 in / ch and the it down to Eb3 in /ch,

Am i right?

thanks
ashish

 

[GCInThisLife]

All the spillover should currently be going to EB3 ROW. The reason behind this is if a non-retro country like Nepal cannot get visa numbers though it hasn't reached 7% limit in EB3, retro countries like India cannot go over their 7% annual limit in any EB category. So, until EB3 ROW becomes current, there won't be any horizontal spill over i.e., no additional visas for retro EB2/EB3 i.e., have to live with 2800 annual visa limit per category. When number of H1Bs ranged from 65k to 195K before 2003 where majority consumed by India/China, and assuming even 25% of them applied for immigration and also considering GC filed by L1s and 2.1 visa usage ratio (spouses & dependents), it won't be difficult to predict the demand.

I think the main confusion comes from the false assumption that 7% limit is applied on all 140K visas and India 'always' gets around 9800 visas and unused EB1 for india goes to EB2 and so on i.e., vertical spill-over.

1. Unused EB1 pool on the whole first goes to EB2 pool.
2. The numbers would be given if a country in EB2 cannot get visas even if it hasn't reached its 7% limit. This is not likely as there will be lot of unused visas in EB2 also.
3. Unused EB1+EB2 goes to EB3 pool and gets distributed among the countries that cannot get visas though they haven't reached 7% limit. Since EB3 ROW is also retrogressed, everything gets consumed here.

Hi ,

When ROW for EB2 are current now, then why they are predicting Demand for EB2.

They should have atleast moved EB2 to June '2003.And moreover the spill over from ROW EB1, and EB2 first come to EB2 in / ch and the it down to Eb3 in /ch,

Am i right?

thanks
ashish

 

[tusharvk]

It is true that there may not be a horizontal spillover (atleast there was none in 06); but it can change year-to-year.
But what you mention in your second para is news to me. I would say EB+FB total GCs, India will get max 7%; but since, it is retro it will get 7% and not less.
I do not think each category such as EB1 IN is limited to 7%.

All the spillover should currently be going to EB3 ROW. The reason behind this is if a non-retro country like Nepal cannot get visa numbers though it hasn't reached 7% limit in EB3, retro countries like India cannot go over their 7% annual limit in any EB category. So, until EB3 ROW becomes current, there won't be any horizontal spill over i.e., no additional visas for retro EB2/EB3 i.e., have to live with 2800 annual visa limit per category. When number of H1Bs ranged from 65k to 195K before 2003 where majority consumed by India/China, and assuming even 25% of them applied for immigration and also considering GC filed by L1s and 2.1 visa usage ratio (spouses & dependents), it won't be difficult to predict the demand.

I think the main confusion comes from the false assumption that 7% limit is applied on all 140K visas and India 'always' gets around 9800 visas and unused EB1 for india goes to EB2 and so on i.e., vertical spill-over.

1. Unused EB1 pool on the whole first goes to EB2 pool.
2. The numbers would be given if a country in EB2 cannot get visas even if it hasn't reached its 7% limit. This is not likely as there will be lot of unused visas in EB2 also.
3. Unused EB1+EB2 goes to EB3 pool and gets distributed among the countries that cannot get visas though they haven't reached 7% limit. Since EB3 ROW is also retrogressed, everything gets consumed here.

 

[andy garcia]

It is true that there may not be a horizontal spillover (atleast there was none in 06); but it can change year-to-year.
But what you mention in your second para is news to me. I would say EB+FB total GCs, India will get max 7%; but since, it is retro it will get 7% and not less.
I do not think each category such as EB1 IN is limited to 7%.

Remember this from Nov 05 VB?

HOW IS THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED PER-COUNTRY LIMIT CALCULATED?

Section 201 of the INA sets an annual minimum Family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000, while the worldwide annual level for Employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 sets the per-country limit for preference immigrants at 7% of the total annual Family-sponsored and Employment-based preference limits, i.e. a minimum of 25,620.

The annual per-country limitation of 7% is a cap, meaning visa issuances to any single country may not exceed this figure. This limitation is not a quota to which any particular country is entitled, however. The per-country limitation serves to avoid monopolization of virtually all the visa numbers by applicants from only a few countries.

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

It is true that there may not be a horizontal spillover (atleast there was none in 06); but it can change year-to-year.
But what you mention in your second para is news to me. I would say EB+FB total GCs, India will get max 7%; but since, it is retro it will get 7% and not less.
I do not think each category such as EB1 IN is limited to 7%.

In addition to the Nov 2005 visa bulletin, the following is from usvisanews news bulletin July 2006.

http://usworkvisa.com/newsletter/newsletters.php?nld=200607#item5

A Department of State representative has reported that China's EB-1 category became current in July because demand was less than projected. 1,700 Chinese EB-1 numbers have been used; 2800 are available for the fiscal year. Overall, China has used 5,600 employment-based numbers with 9,800 available for the year. It is likely that China will not hit the limit overall. Previously DHS was clearing out backlog, now demand is lower because approvals seem to have stabilized, the representative noted. EB-1 China numbers should continue to be available, although there is no guarantee, because the backlogs encountered recently resulted from an apparent surge in processing by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

If chinese eb1 visa numbers are limited to 2800 per years so do India eb1, eb2 and eb3; if this is what you are looking for. I doubt uscis will change unless there is a legislation.

 

[GetGC2007]

EB2 Retrogression

Hi All,


This really good discussion we should continue to analyze.As for as vertical spill over , when ROW for EB2 is current then it should spill to India / Ch EB2.Also EB1 is current for In / Ch.

When i look at the BEC Forum i see most of the cases are EB3 during 2002/2003.You can say 5 /1 cases are Eb2 in 2004.But 2005 are more , it is altogether a different issue bez of PERM.

Since USICS are projecting based on the demand for the EB2 for FY 2005/2006, but they do not have consolidate number for EB2 from BEC.

Once all BEC cleared then you might see EB2 moves to 2005 Apr.(like china).

So they have to first clear EB2 then spill over to go to Eb3.

What do you guys think.

Regards
Ash

 

[JMJ]

wishful thinking!! In my opinion till labor substitution(there is now talk abt 45 days validity,not yet law) is allowed,I don't think EB2 will move fast. Since bulk of cases are getting approved from BECs with ripe old PDs,this retro will get worse. Already inefficient USCIS will now have no idea how farther to move dates since at every point of time there are old PDs cutting the lines.
My 2 cents!!

JMJ

 

[gravitation]

Hi All,
This really good discussion we should continue to analyze.As for as vertical spill over , when ROW for EB2 is current then it should spill to India / Ch EB2.Also EB1 is current for In / Ch.

Starting last year, EB2 ROW overflow has been diverted to EB3 ROW.

 

[GetGC2007]

EB2 Retrogression

Hi JMJ,

I agreed , people are doing Labor Substitution converting EB3 to EB2, But how many are doing.

Not every one are doing , very Few numbers, like 1 % - 2%. That too we are not sure.How many companys are co-opertaing for this, they want to attract guys with pre-approved labor.

Let's hope.

Thanks
ash

 

[berkeleybee]

Starting last year, EB2 ROW overflow has been diverted to EB3 ROW.

Based on a conversation with a state dept official involved in setting cutoff dates yesterday, this is absolutely correct.

I was also told yesterday that given this, EB-2 and EB-3 India cutoff dates are not going to move for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at least till Sept 07).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far]

 

[nyc8300]

Amen!

Based on a conversation with a state dept official involved in setting cutoff dates yesterday, this is absolutely correct.

I was also told yesterday that given this, EB-2 and EB-3 India cutoff dates are not going to move for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at least till Sept 07).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far]

 

[mysticbeach]

I am with priority date March 1week 2003 (Eb2 India). My 140 got approved more than two years back.

Guys, can you tell me how many more years do I need to wait to see my date current.

 

[smbaps]

Hi mysticbeach,
Can you tell me what kind of job description falls under EB2?
i need to file under EB2 as mine was approved under EB3 PD oct 2003.My employer is worried about the job description as they can not change something like Senior software developer to Manager.

smbaps

 

[mysticbeach]

Hi smbaps,

I am a senior s/w engineer with master degree(MBA). I have qualified to EB2 only with my BE and MBA and with 4 years of exp at the joining to my company.

mysticbeach

Hi mysticbeach,
Can you tell me what kind of job description falls under EB2?
i need to file under EB2 as mine was approved under EB3 PD oct 2003.My employer is worried about the job description as they can not change something like Senior software developer to Manager.

smbaps

 

[redmonduser33]

Remember this from Nov 05 VB?

HOW IS THE EMPLOYMENT-BASED PER-COUNTRY LIMIT CALCULATED?

Section 201 of the INA sets an annual minimum Family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000, while the worldwide annual level for Employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 sets the per-country limit for preference immigrants at 7% of the total annual Family-sponsored and Employment-based preference limits, i.e. a minimum of 25,620.

The annual per-country limitation of 7% is a cap, meaning visa issuances to any single country may not exceed this figure. This limitation is not a quota to which any particular country is entitled, however. The per-country limitation serves to avoid monopolization of virtually all the visa numbers by applicants from only a few countries.

There is some massive confusion here. The Immigration and Nationality Act also says the following for EB3

-Quote
(3) Skilled workers, professionals, and other workers
(A) In general
Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (1) and (2), to the following classes of aliens who are not described in paragraph (2):
-End Quote

Read the term "Not to exceed 28.6 percent". So EB3 can't exceed 28.6 percent which means unused visas from EB2 cant all go to EB3. Since EB2 ROW is current, the visas should be coming to EB2 India & china.. no?

What am I missing here?

 

[netkicker]

What I don't understand is, as far as I read in these forums BECs are working on a first-in first-out basis. According to Oh's webpage they are done with two thirds of the applications. Then one would think they are working on the more recent cases like 2003 even 2004 and later.

Then, how come they think about moving the dates backwards? This means they are getting applications from 2002 and earlier. I know about labors subs. but still are there that many labor sub. applications? It does not make sense. Not that they ever made sense but still...

What I do think is they are not going to move the dates any further until June when the new rates becomes effective. This is a capitalist country after all.

Also do not expect the things move %20 faster since they claim it will with the new rates. If you triple a commodity's rate you've gotta give some sort of justification.

 

[mariner555]

What I don't understand is, as far as I read in these forums BECs are working on a first-in first-out basis. According to Oh's webpage they are done with two thirds of the applications. Then one would think they are working on the more recent cases like 2003 even 2004 and later.

Then, how come they think about moving the dates backwards? This means they are getting applications from 2002 and earlier. I know about labors subs. but still are there that many labor sub. applications? It does not make sense. Not that they ever made sense but still...

What I do think is they are not going to move the dates any further until June when the new rates becomes effective. This is a capitalist country after all.

Also do not expect the things move %20 faster since they claim it will with the new rates. If you triple a commodity's rate you've gotta give some sort of justification.

That is a good point and I agree. I know this maynot be the correct thread ..but much time does I-140 stage take ?

 

[voldemarv]

What I don't understand is, as far as I read in these forums BECs are working on a first-in first-out basis.

First of all they are not working on first in first out basis. They are cleaning up RIR cases while a lot of regular cases are sitting idle. Most of regular cases have old priority dates.