Outlook for FY2007

unitednations said:
Immigrant visas? They were used up; which were eligible. A couple of years; uscis didn't come close to the quota but those visas were gone forever (something they tried to recapture last year but failed).

Even when one starts making assumptions, such as the average person may file a labor once they are here say in their fourth year on H-1 then there will be a timing difference between people coming on h-1 and priority dates for greencards.

People who got greencards would probably get it in their 5th or 6th year of H-1. Therefore, there will continue to be a build of of demand for people who came in 2001-2005 which will be seen over the next couple of years.

Looks like there should be some political lobbying from Indian Government - Does anyone have statistics of how much money is flowed from USA back to india versus the money generated by people who moved back or the jobs being outsourced to India.

That is; is there an economic study by Indian government whether there interests are better served to have its people in USA or back in India. If conclusion is that it is better for its interests to have people in USA then a pretty good argument could be made to Indian Government that they have a vested interest in intervening.
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UN (The one in NY) had done such study. as pointed by another reader Indian govt is filled with rotten old idiots (with exception of few good people). they are doing everything to stop the economy from growing ..(reservations as opposed to merit etc ...as a result of which pvt sector is no longer investing in higher education)...no wonder most Indian parents (including the politicians and the babu's) do anything to send their children abroad. BTW I read an interesting article which said that because baby boomers will start retiring in great numbers, there will be a big demand for skilled workers again ..hence my optimism that some sort of relief will be passed soon.
 
Nov 2005 bulletin statement. AC 21 non applicable.

The november 2005 statement that said AC-21 is not expected to apply for 2006, could have simply meant.

1. The is enough demand in each of the categories - EB1 , Eb2 and EB3 each of them considered separately , so that the horizontal spillover in each of the categories is not expected to apply.

More sense could be made out of the movements in the past few bulletins, than interpreting the language. I believe.

If EB3 ROW has to be current - it might just not happen for another 3-5 years -- particularly if you consider the case where the 245 i applicants , most of them are not from the same country. In that case no one country wil be backloged on the 7% limit, and still will be continuously out of the ROW quotas as an when they get approved from the BEC. ( and if that is the case I would expect to see more countries listed in the next bulletins in addition to India china philip and mexico like el savador, comlumbia ) etc.

Much depends on the distribution of the 245 i applications then.

by the way forum readers, i was just raising an opinion and was not negating anyone's thoughts. After all, all of us are in the Q.
 
Nov 2005 bulletin statement. AC 21 non applicable. - one more observation

just to add one more observation,

I do seriously think that the horizontal spillover happened for EB1 india because, the fiscal year 2006 started with 2002 and ended up being current for india.

going by the 2005 numbers (More than 6000 EB1 from India ), I seriously think the 2006 numbers for EB1 india would have been more than 2800 for the movement it should from the start of the year : 2002 to end of the year : current.

in case of EB2 - the reason it became Unavailable I think is because EB2 ROW itself was in pretty heavy demand, with not much spillovers from EB1, and I am not at all surprised that there might have been a huge number of applications from india - particularly starting at mid 2002.

But again, Also I noticed a lot of movement in EB3 ROW particularly in the last few months of the year.

I do not know why USCIS does not clearly say how exactly are they doing it, cuz once that is made available, people can pretty much estimate how long it is going to take for their case to eventually adjucate. Again, after all it will be public information in a few months.
 
aila does not have any clarification regarding how the statement in nov'05 bulletin is to be intepreted?
if it is the DOS' discretion whether or not to apply AC21, they can apply it again in FY07 in which case there will be horizontal spill-over. With EB1 being current for India, it will spill over into EB2.
gc_tx_2003 said:
The november 2005 statement that said AC-21 is not expected to apply for 2006, could have simply meant.

1. The is enough demand in each of the categories - EB1 , Eb2 and EB3 each of them considered separately , so that the horizontal spillover in each of the categories is not expected to apply.

More sense could be made out of the movements in the past few bulletins, than interpreting the language. I believe.

If EB3 ROW has to be current - it might just not happen for another 3-5 years -- particularly if you consider the case where the 245 i applicants , most of them are not from the same country. In that case no one country wil be backloged on the 7% limit, and still will be continuously out of the ROW quotas as an when they get approved from the BEC. ( and if that is the case I would expect to see more countries listed in the next bulletins in addition to India china philip and mexico like el savador, comlumbia ) etc.

Much depends on the distribution of the 245 i applications then.

by the way forum readers, i was just raising an opinion and was not negating anyone's thoughts. After all, all of us are in the Q.
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So how do you suppose EB1 for IND became current. Did you think they had just less than 2800 applications given that there were 6000 approvals in 2005 ?
 
Not looking good

I think people are looking for "magic info/formula" in visa bulletin that will allow them to predict when they can *expect* I-485 approval. Until eb3 Row is NOT current, India/China eb3 will be limited to 700 per quarter. If there are more than 700 I-485 filings in this quarter (Oct-Dec) with old priority dates (read LC Sub), then eb3 date can go further back.

It is simple supply/demand scenario. As long as I-485 filings exceed available visa numbers, the PD will not move or move slowly.

I can understand the frustration, but it is important to accept the reality rather than looking ofr false hopes.
 
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distrbution of visas.

United Nations,

You might be totally right, that it is not more than 2800 each for India in each of EB1/EB2/EB3.

All that I am trying to find if we see that from the bulletin movements, as opposed to the wording that appeared in one of the bulletins in nov 2005.

Are you an attorney? or someone that knows some information from USCIS ?
In that case, please let us know if there had been any indications recently from the USCIS.

Also, if EB3 ROW has to be current for the spillover to happen - I think that will never happen , because if you take out the numbers consumed by India, CH, MX, PH (about 5000 each ) in EB3 that leaves EB3 ROW with about 20000 visas/ year, and I believe there will be that much amount of demand all the time every year in the future for EB3 ROW assuming the nurses quota is going to fall there as well.

That in turn will mean, the total number of visa demand will always be more than 140K ( because of the retrogressed applications ) , and yet EB3 will not be current. So EB3 ROW will be consuming 20K from its own quota, possibly some 10000 - 20000 from EB2, and another 20000 from EB1.

So in total you can expect EB3 ROW to get about 50 K , and that will be filled by the 50K applications projected for EB3 every year in the future, and on top of that is the current backlog in EB3 and the BECs.

That will totally mean, EB2 and EB3 India just are not going to get any more that 2800 ( 1400 principals ), and based on that number EB2 and EB3 will not move any more than 2-3 months a year, and there is absolutely NO practical difference between EB2/EB3, as both are hinged on EB3 ROW being current first.
 
EB-2 india may be helped by EB-1 India as now EB-1 is current.

gc_tx_2003 said:
United Nations,

You might be totally right, that it is not more than 2800 each for India in each of EB1/EB2/EB3.

All that I am trying to find if we see that from the bulletin movements, as opposed to the wording that appeared in one of the bulletins in nov 2005.

Are you an attorney? or someone that knows some information from USCIS ?
In that case, please let us know if there had been any indications recently from the USCIS.

Also, if EB3 ROW has to be current for the spillover to happen - I think that will never happen , because if you take out the numbers consumed by India, CH, MX, PH (about 5000 each ) in EB3 that leaves EB3 ROW with about 20000 visas/ year, and I believe there will be that much amount of demand all the time every year in the future for EB3 ROW assuming the nurses quota is going to fall there as well.

That in turn will mean, the total number of visa demand will always be more than 140K ( because of the retrogressed applications ) , and yet EB3 will not be current. So EB3 ROW will be consuming 20K from its own quota, possibly some 10000 - 20000 from EB2, and another 20000 from EB1.

So in total you can expect EB3 ROW to get about 50 K , and that will be filled by the 50K applications projected for EB3 every year in the future, and on top of that is the current backlog in EB3 and the BECs.

That will totally mean, EB2 and EB3 India just are not going to get any more that 2800 ( 1400 principals ), and based on that number EB2 and EB3 will not move any more than 2-3 months a year, and there is absolutely NO practical difference between EB2/EB3, as both are hinged on EB3 ROW being current first.
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if EB3 ROW has to be current for the spillover like UnitedNations is suggesting
then EB2 India will not be helped by the fact that EB1 and EB2 ROW are current, UNTIL EB3 ROW also becomes current.
 
Just a thought ....

There is one possible option that can be used to get GC faster.

If you are in eb2 and have Masters Degree (or higher), consider writing some research articles (related to your job-field) in Professional magazines and Papers.

Based on this, you can try filing I-140 under EB1, and since EB1 is current, it is expected that I-485 will be approved in short period of time.

Just a thought ....

Unusual Circumstances require unusual methods
 
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I would wait and watch for at least two quarters.

The spillover numbers are carried every quarter. Also note unlike last year there were no suggestions or pointers in this year release.



gc_tx_2003 said:
if EB3 ROW has to be current for the spillover like UnitedNations is suggesting
then EB2 India will not be helped by the fact that EB1 and EB2 ROW are current, UNTIL EB3 ROW also becomes current.
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Hey Guys....in all of these visa #'s and other discussions, i just wanted to check if anyone can predict about my visa availability.

India EB3 PD Apr 30 2001. Have been looking at the visa bulletin from last couple of months and the date always stayed near or below Apr 22nd 2001. was wondering on how much longer do i need to wait.

Will appreciate your responses.

Thanks
 
pallu2004 said:
Hey Guys....in all of these visa #'s and other discussions, i just wanted to check if anyone can predict about my visa availability.

India EB3 PD Apr 30 2001. Have been looking at the visa bulletin from last couple of months and the date always stayed near or below Apr 22nd 2001. was wondering on how much longer do i need to wait.

Will appreciate your responses.

Thanks
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Please correct me if I am wrong, you are using substituted Labor? You are already ahead in line. Just hope you don't get any RFE for I-485.

Good Luck.
 
united nations,

what is ur PD / category.

what do u think will the movement in EB3 ROW will be, in the next few bulletins.

right now May 2002, Moved quickly from OCT 2001 in the last few bulletins.

assuming it was current until Sep 2005, and whatever made it get stuck in 2001 since Sep 2005, how many apps do u think would there be between
May 2002 and current.

And what is the rate of approvals from BEC, that might get added to this category of EB3 ROW, as and when they advance the dates.

Does the applications for Poultryworker, welder etc - such jobs are in this EB3 ROW category - and what countries do normally consume such employment profiles
 
Thanks UN for remembering me. I had been in a roller coaster ride from last 5 years in GC process. I just hope no one passes thru this process as i had been. You have helped me a lot in this process and i really appreciate your support for the same.
 
unitednations said:
One has to be careful in making judgements about people who are using labor substitution.


This was no judgmental call. Using labor substitution does allow person to go ahead in line. This is a fact. Nothing more, nothing less.

Although our place in line for the greencard is the "priority date of the labor"; this in many ways has no reality of how long people have really been waiting.

There are people in 8th, 9th, 10th year who have priority dates in 2003, etc. People who started as students here.

Many people got laid off, had labors denied, had to re-start the process.

I know Pallu. I hope he doesn't mind speaking for him but he did have another greencard process with priority date back that far which was denied due to ability to pay.

Well, I am sorry that Pallu lost his PD due denail of previous I-140. I hope he gets his GC as soon as possible.

The fact is, with I-140 denial the applicant loses his/her PD. Now the new PD is a later date. Using LC-sub allows applicant to recover some/all time lost, whereas other applicants who lost original PD (in similar cases) are now "standing in line" with new PD beacuse they do not have substituted labor. Using LC-sub does allow applicant to go ahead in line.

I know that using substituted labor is allowed (and legal), many times this has been abused by employer.

Priority Date is NOT determined by the date when the person first came in the USA. Some people think that just because they are here for 10 years they should get GC faster. They should have started GC process earlier. In fact, the person need not to be here in the US to get GC.

There must be a reason why LC-sub is so much in demand.
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United Nation, I value and respect your contribution to the group. Your contribution is second to none, in my opinion.

Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer, and this ain't legal advice, its just my opinion.
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Need Help from United Nation

Hi,

I know this thread is not for the help we are seeking, but this thread seems to have knowlegable people who can probbaly answer the following. I have already posted the same question under I-140 issues thread:

One of friends has already approved I-140 under EB2 category for managerial position for. Recently, his employer got one BEC labor approved that can be used for EB3, I-140 filing. That EB3 labor has PD of 2002, while the EB2 stuff has PD of 2005.

Can the same company file second I-140 under different category (EB3) labor certi for the SAME beneficiary? The LCA used for EB2 had manegerial job stuff. The recently approved BEC LC has different job description.

Are there any risk factor of doing so?

Are there any other solutions for not running under any risk factors?

Thanks for your help.
Chaula
 
greatgc said:
Hi,

I know this thread is not for the help we are seeking, but this thread seems to have knowlegable people who can probbaly answer the following. I have already posted the same question under I-140 issues thread:

One of friends has already approved I-140 under EB2 category for managerial position for. Recently, his employer got one BEC labor approved that can be used for EB3, I-140 filing. That EB3 labor has PD of 2002, while the EB2 stuff has PD of 2005.

Can the same company file second I-140 under different category (EB3) labor certi for the SAME beneficiary?
Yes, as long as the substituted beneficiary has qualification and experience matching (or exceeding) as mentioned in LC on the Priority Date (2002).

The LCA used for EB2 had manegerial job stuff. The recently approved BEC LC has different job description.
Refer above regarding qualification and experience.

Are there any risk factor of doing so?
This is hard to say. Each I-140 filing allows USCIS to open new questions/investigation. The general question remains the same - Is this job offer bonafide and permanent?

Are there any other solutions for not running under any risk factors?

Thanks for your help.
Chaula
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Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer, and this ain't legal advice, its just my opinion.
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> 8) Economy will fall if people don't get their greencards

> 9) Legal people pay taxes, social security and should be given a greencard.

UN,
I agree with you but look at what happened when the law was signed to allow people to extend their visas by 1 year beyond the 6 year period (am I right ? I guess earliar people had to leave no matter what for a period of 1 year).
also, Bernake made a comment today that US economy is ageing ..(though he did say increased immigration alone wont solve it) ..
what I am trying to say is that there is a 50-50 percent chance that some sort of relief will be passed ..ofcourse most people in this forum are smart enough that they have a plan B and most of their assets are movable.
 
unitednations said:
......

Situation #2

.......

At the time of filing both 140's he was not employed by either company. Eventually, when he got a project he joined company B. Company B 140 gets approved (eb3).

Company C gets stuck with gigantic RFE regarding numberr of 140's that have been filed. Eventually, company B's 140 also gets approved.

..........
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Probably you meant Company C here. (highlighted in Indigo color in your quote)

Thanks for the great explanation. My understanding is that PD can be ported to another I-140 only if other I-140 is not revoked by the petitioning employer. The previous I-140 must be active and approved at the time of PD porting. Just wanted to get some expert opinion on this. Thanks!
 
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