Outlook for FY2007

Loopholes

can_card said:
Rightly said. Most of the IT guys have 2 or 3 labor certifications. Unused ones creates black marcket, by abusing the law by bodyshoppers. Now the victims are non-IT guys. If any one work in non-IT field and work for a real US employers, it is very difficult to file a even one LC. The mess was created by bodyshoppers mainly in IT field

can_card,

So long as there are glaring loop holes in the system there will always be people to abuse them. The onus lies with the DOL to ban labor sub. There was a lot of talk about it earlier this year but I don't see anything happening. AILA and the lawyers lobby will never let USCIS or DOL plug these loop holes. They stand to lose to much money in the process.

regards,

saras
 
can_card said:
Rightly said. Most of the IT guys have 2 or 3 labor certifications. Unused ones creates black marcket, by abusing the law by bodyshoppers. Now the victims are non-IT guys. If any one work in non-IT field and work for a real US employers, it is very difficult to file a even one LC. The mess was created by bodyshoppers mainly in IT field

I concur with what Can-Card said, lot ot IT bodyshoppers(especially from India, dont worry i am also from india) are doing lot of Mess with Labors/Sub Labors
they are playing with our lives
 
The sad part ..

zzzz4zzzz said:
I concur with what Can-Card said, lot ot IT bodyshoppers(especially from India, dont worry i am also from india) are doing lot of Mess with Labors/Sub Labors
they are playing with our lives

zzzz4zzzz,

The sad part in all this is that DOL knows of this abuse but chooses to turn a blind eye. The DOL and USCIS are probably fedup with the ways Indians twist and abuse this system (don't worry, I am Indian) and are probably happy that Indians are making things worse for eachother. So long as most other categories are moving along well who cares for EB3 and EB2 India? Whether the wait is 6 months or 10 years, they know that we will still be around hence absolutely nothing will be done.

regards,

saras
 
Let me rephrase my Qn..

Having seen FY 2005 EB1 numbers from countries like Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Canada, V'zuela, G Britain, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, do you still think in FY 2006 there was less demand from EB1 applicants from the ROW? You have any guesstimates from any CIS attorneys or any other reliable srsc? Going by 2005 demands, why would it be any lower in 06?

unitednations said:
I just hate making predictions.

However:

..............
110,000 will be used by ROW across all categories. Since ROW doesn't file much in eb1 and eb2 that is why we have seen movement in EB3 row.

........
.
 
Win-Win-Win-Win-Win-Loose Situation

zzzz4zzzz said:
even if they apply 140/485 thru labor sub with PD 2000, they wont get GCs now
becoz their RDs will be in sept/oct 2006 and Service centers are processing now Mar/Apr 2006, they have to wait until their RD will be with Processing dates

any thoughts???

Okay in the scenario i mentioned above. They wont apply the 485 again. They will just use the original 485 that was filed with the Labor with PD in 2003-2005. They will only have to substitute the 2000 Labor and file the I-140. When that I-140 gets approved (which these days are getting approved within 2 months) they will adjust the PD on the original 485 to 2000 instead of 2003-2005. Its called I-140 Substitution (its like one of those interest only loans).

So in effect they get te best of both worlds. They retain the 485 recipt date and also get the 2000 PD. Win-Win-Win-Win-Win-loss situation.

The Winners are the applicant, Consulting company who sold the Labor, The Lawyer who handles the case, The USCIS, the DOL.
Offcourse I dont have to tell you who is the looser.

neo
 
immigration-law.com update

09/22/2006: BEC Backlog Processing Update

* AILA-DOL Liaison Meeting Minute of 09/12/2006 gives update on the BEC backlog processing as follows:
o Status of Processing of Cases:
+ Total Cases=362,000
+ Pending Cases=approximately 176,000 (45-day letters for all of these pending cases with a few exceptions have been issued)
+ Completed Cases=approximately 182,000 cases. These cases are completed in the following fashions:
# 50%=Closed or Withdrawn or Closed for No Response to 45-Day Letters
# 50%=Either Approved or Denied
+ At the front-end, the cases are processed on FIFO based on the priority date, but adjudication is done on FIFO based on the order of responses to the requests.
+ Processing Times may be posted on the website in the near future.
o Traditional Case Processing:
+ Recruitment instructions and job order with the states are underway for some cases
+ Amendments (non-material changes) can be made in writing at any time before the job order is placed with the states by the BEC. Once the job order is begun, no amendments are permitted, even if the amendments involve non-matterial issues. BEC places job orders at the same time of issuing the recruitment instructions to the employers. Accordingly, once such recruitment instructions are received, apparently no amendments will be permitted. Unanswered Question: It is unclear whether the amendments will not be permitted once job order has been placed when the amendments involve just substitution of alien beneficiaries. Considering the fact that change of the alien beneficiaries does not affect the terms and conditions for the labor market test in the recruitment process in the traditional cases and such substitution had been permitted before the reengineering of the labor certification system, it appears that the foregoing restriction may not apply to the amendment for substitution of alien beneficiaries. The foregoing policies may be limited to the amendments to change the terms and conditions and requirements for the job.
+ DOL is planning to allow conversion of traditional cases to RIR by amending the existing RIR conversion regulation. The specific procedures and requirements will be published in a federal register soon. However, potential benefit of such conversion may be more or less limited in that the DOL is required to finish up all the BEC cases including traditional cases within next one year.

So BECs have just 176,000 pending cases. I am not sure how many cases are still pending in the traditional route. But it appears that only 91,000 cases have been approved in the BECs and the rest rejected. Any one want to do more analysis with these numbers ?
 
UN,
I follow most of the posts in this thread.
So, what is the tread/outlook for FY2007. Like how much they will move for ROW and so as other fellows?
 
Unitednations,

I agree with you for the most part. However I would have thought countries like Pakistan with thousands here illegally may have applied for legalisation due to 245 I. There are other countries like El Salvador, Gautemala, Honduras, Nicaragua who also have many illegals.
How come these countries come under ROW and not retrogressed individually.
Do you know if DOL comes out with any statistics on the breakup of LC's by nationality and year/month of PD ?

Thanks
 
Backlog Count

Backlog Count
------------------
Total Cases=362,000
Still Pending Cases, as of today =approximately 176,000 (45-day letters for all of these pending cases with a few exceptions have been issued)
Completed Cases=approximately 182,000 cases.

These cases are completed in the following fashions:
50%=Closed or Withdrawn or Closed for No Response to 45-Day Letters
50%=Either Approved or Denied

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So, only 90k cases or so, got approved and that equates to around 180K - 485 applications...almost 1 year's quota ....

and we still have 176k outstanding ....assuming 100K get approved....WOW...that's another 2 years quota of 200K still in the pipeline...

EB3 ROW - it may be a while before it becomes current (2 years at least)!
 
There are many duplicate cases

There are many duplicate I-140 cases filed. Hopefully that will alow PD to move faster.

Also, we are seeing more I-485 denials. For many consulting companies, the job is not real permanent job. In many cases, employee is working on the client site. I-485 can be denied if the job offer is not bonafide and permanent.

My guess is that there won't be much progress in PD for eb3 category.

Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer, and this ain't legal advice, its just my opinion.
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santa4u said:
Backlog Count
------------------
Total Cases=362,000
Still Pending Cases, as of today =approximately 176,000 (45-day letters for all of these pending cases with a few exceptions have been issued)
Completed Cases=approximately 182,000 cases.

These cases are completed in the following fashions:
50%=Closed or Withdrawn or Closed for No Response to 45-Day Letters
50%=Either Approved or Denied

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So, only 90k cases or so, got approved and that equates to around 180K - 485 applications...almost 1 year's quota ....

and we still have 176k outstanding ....assuming 100K get approved....WOW...that's another 2 years quota of 200K still in the pipeline...

EB3 ROW - it may be a while before it becomes current (2 years at least)!

I think only less than half cases will be approved. That means in total of 362,000, probably 160K will be approved. This would take abount 1 year 6 months if we do not count contry quota.
 
desi3933 said:
There are many duplicate I-140 cases filed. Hopefully that will alow PD to move faster.

Also, we are seeing more I-485 denials. For many consulting companies, the job is not real permanent job. In many cases, employee is working on the client site. I-485 can be denied if the job offer is not bonafide and permanent.

My guess is that there won't be much progress in PD for eb3 category.

Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer, and this ain't legal advice, its just my opinion.
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Why would USCIS deny ?? consulting companies's employee usually work for client at client location.

If that is the case consulting companies can not sponser a GC for his employee??
 
baby_mde said:
Why would USCIS deny ?? consulting companies's employee usually work for client at client location.

If that is the case consulting companies can not sponser a GC for his employee??

Simple logic, GC is for future employment. Therefore the company has to prove that they will have a position for you. For consulting companies who depend on clients that's not something easy to do. In the last 3 years USCIS didn't care about Lab. sub. But from what I'm reading in these forums now they are looking at which company is sponsoring LC and are denying those that have shady practices. Now don't ask me what constitutes shady practices, I have no idea. But it's a welcome step because of unscrupulous selling of LCs by desi consultancies.
 
baby_mde said:
I think only less than half cases will be approved. That means in total of 362,000, probably 160K will be approved. This would take abount 1 year 6 months if we do not count contry quota.
I would think they will pass some sort of relief after the elections.
Economy is headed for a soft/hard landing. I wish they have the sense to issue GC's faster so that people with 8-9 years experience (and atleast 250 k in savings) would settle down here and start buying houses. if a Programmer has to go back then most likely the job goes out of the country too. I guess Immigrationvoice should focus more on this point ..any comments
 
mariner555 said:
I would think they will pass some sort of relief after the elections.
Economy is headed for a soft/hard landing. I wish they have the sense to issue GC's faster so that people with 8-9 years experience (and atleast 250 k in savings) would settle down here and start buying houses. if a Programmer has to go back then most likely the job goes out of the country too. I guess Immigrationvoice should focus more on this point ..any comments

I aggree with you. Job goes from US and savings goes from US when worker leaves US. This is a huge loss for US.

Immigrationvoice should concentrate on this.
 
baby_mde said:
I aggree with you. Job goes from US and savings goes from US when worker leaves US. This is a huge loss for US.

Immigrationvoice should concentrate on this.

Guys, Thoughts like these are why we do not understand the reality.
If the savings of all the persons in the GC line go, it is but a drop in the ocean. No one is going to loose their sleep on it...
As far as jobs going too, the jury's still out...
On majority of them at least, they can get new H1s filed every year. Regardless of retro or not, outsourcing will continue to happen to its logical end.

It is merely numbers; we are atmost a few hundred thousand folks and while some of our demands are very legitimate, they do not come on the radar of the lawmakers; On the other hand, the illegals do.
 
Final predictions for 2007

UN

What are ur thoughts regarding hope for Eb2 and Eb3 categories for China/India

EB2/EB3 - U/C/Retrogression
EB2/EB3 - U/C/retrogression

Thanks in advance
Matt
 
If the savings are completely liquid, 250k in savings times approx. 200k people stuck for 8-9 years. This is merely $ 5B in an economy that churns around trillions of $s.
Now, on the job loss side. For jobs lost to outsourcing, a lot more higher level jobs get created in this country by both US and foreign corporations.

The question is this: is it true that the EB visas need to be increased so that the oversubscribed countries' citizens get their GCs faster rather than having to wait for 9-10 years?
People from non-retro countries are indeed getting their GCs fast. So, unless one believes that all the talent in the world is from the oversubscribed countries, one can not make a very good argument for increasing EB visas.
Now, if the USCIS is wasting visa numbers and the over-subscribed countries are forever stuck in retro, that would be a different thing. That could be addressed by relaxing per-country limit.

It is perhaps the abuse in the system that India had pd set for even EB1 category.

So, address the abuse first, make the system efficient and streamlined (disallowing labor subs, multiple labors for the same person, etc.) and then make a case for increasing EB numbers.

mariner555 said:
I wish they have the sense to issue GC's faster so that people with 8-9 years experience (and atleast 250 k in savings) would settle down here and start buying houses. if a Programmer has to go back then most likely the job goes out of the country too. I guess Immigrationvoice should focus more on this point ..any comments
 
My guess is, for Nov 2006, the PD dates may move by
1 week for eb3 India/China
2 weeks for eb2 India/China
4 weeks for eb3 RoW

Disclaimer: I'm not a lawyer, and this ain't legal advice, its just my opinion.
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