Outlook for FY2007

[indian_gc_ocean]

This thread is for outlook 2007. Lot of things like availability of previous years unused visas have changed since FY2005. It is really confusing to refer 05 as last year. '05 stats have no relevance to '06. If anyone has statistics for last year (FY 2006), it will help the outlook for 2007. Otherwise, it is just a waste of time analyzing '05 stats for '07 leaving '06 inbetween.

 

[AGC4ME]

I don't agree with what you say. My attorney himself has more than 100 245i in backlog center waiting to go AD. Those people are all well related with someone in this country and I guess I have to say they have the relationship to keep their 245i going. I don't like the fact but I have nothing to say

But did they file under EB category or FB category ? Yeah 245i is a big problem as a whole but no one knows how many are in the EB line vs the FB line !!!!. Why don't u ask ur lawyer ? May be that'll give us an idea. You know what if AILA is a little proactive then they can give us a good figure on how many 245i were filed in what category.

 

[guldukan]

This thread is for outlook 2007. Lot of things like availability of previous years unused visas have changed since FY2005. It is really confusing to refer 05 as last year. '05 stats have no relevance to '06. If anyone has statistics for last year (FY 2006), it will help the outlook for 2007. Otherwise, it is just a waste of time analyzing '05 stats for '07 leaving '06 inbetween.

if you don't look back, you will never be able to predict future,
this thread is very informative and many of knowledged guys have put forth their opinions, unless we figure out how it all happedn in 05,06 we will not be alble to predict anything close to reality

 

[AGC4ME]

Backlog center is only employment base labors.

Familyu base there is no backlog center. You directly file I-130 with uscis.

Thanks for that info UN but rather than answering the question it raises mor because backlog centers have regular labors + 245is then. Until PERM came up which was quite recent all regular labors went to the BECs. Therefore the BECs have atleast 3 years worth of labors in the pending stage. Even with no 245i and just regular normal filing that will be around 300k and that's the number being said about the backlog. So I still don't understand the effect of 245i on EB...

 

[neocor]

LS is a Hen that lays golden eggs.

Labor Subs is not the main problem but definitly one of them which affects the retrogression. Of course the major problem is 245i.

Again there is really no big proof that the 245i is really the big cause. Its been two years now waiting for the 245i to flood the system, which never seems to happen.

It is not necessary to have long discussion about it, if to take a look at the bulletins one can see that critical date is April,30th 2001. It is the last day of filing 245i.

This is exactly why we need to find out the reality. People just keep saying to ignore any discussions regarding LS as 245i is the real culprit. Yes all bulletins keep saying that 245i is the culprit showing April 2001 as an example. But where are the 245i approvals? As I said its been nearly two years since the heat on 245i started. Show me the numbers.

As for Labor Substitution it also causes cut off dates to be retrogressed at least indirectly. A lot of consulting companies keep unused LC with general position requirements kind of "Software Engineer" with PD 2000/2001 to be substituted in the future.

Just try applying for Job on Monster and then see the responces that come from cunsulting companies. 90% of responces will offer you a Labor dating 2000.

When DOL and USCIS almost came to conclusion to eliminate LC substitution, it caused a lot of protests from immigration lawyers.

But generally speaking elimination of Labor Substitution will give a big relief to retrogressed people in EB2/EB3 category. Number of 245i can be roughly estmated. In case of unsed and available Labor Certifications for substitutions.... I believe there is no mechanism or technique to estimate how many of them.

Exactly my point. The lawyers know that the USCIS will not take time to compile all the details that will push them more backwards with regards to their timetable. So the Law does not go anywhere. Its a huge cash cow for the lawyers, they are not going to let it go.

I don't agree with what you say. My attorney himself has more than 100 245i in backlog center waiting to go AD. Those people are all well related with someone in this country and I guess I have to say they have the relationship to keep their 245i going. I don't like the fact but I have nothing to say

Yeah this is exactly what i said in my first post. The lawyers will say that to make you believe that the 245i is the biggest bottleneck.
You see how they throw around numbers when its convenient to them.
Now just go and ask them any details about the number of 245i approvals that USCIS made last year. The answer from them will be its very difficult to find out.

LS is a hen that lays the golden egg for a lot of law firms and conculting companies. They are not going to kill it.

neo

 

[AGC4ME]

A lot of the 245i labors which haven't been approved were filed in "regular permanent" or converted to "regular permanent" if DOL challenged them.

Through immigration.com, homepage there is a link for labor processing times. If you go through the archives, specifically look at New York, California, Texas, Virigina, New Jersey. From the archived processing times you will see that from 2001 until January 2005 (last time they were posted I believe); the processing dates did not move from April 2001. It was stuck at this date for four years. How everyone is watching the visa dates; people were also watching the labor processing dates until they gave up because they never moved.

Look at immigration-law.com breaking news from a couple of months ago. The backlog reduction centers were just starting the job order placements (ie., starting the advertising process). A lot of those labors still haven't been approved or will start making their way through the system.

But how many labors are there in the backlog centers. See I applied for my labor in November 2001 and I didnt go thru BEC. Rather than saying lot, do we know exactly how many ? As u see BECs hold 4 years worth of labor from 2001 till 2004. And if u know the number of labors and the average labor filed per year u will see that it will follow the average. Am I wrong ?

 

[neocor]

A lot of the 245i labors which haven't been approved were filed in "regular permanent" or converted to "regular permanent" if DOL challenged them.

Through immigration.com, homepage there is a link for labor processing times. If you go through the archives, specifically look at New York, California, Texas, Virigina, New Jersey. From the archived processing times you will see that from 2001 until January 2005 (last time they were posted I believe); the processing dates did not move from April 2001. It was stuck at this date for four years. How everyone is watching the visa dates; people were also watching the labor processing dates until they gave up because they never moved.

Look at immigration-law.com breaking news from a couple of months ago. The backlog reduction centers were just starting the job order placements (ie., starting the advertising process). A lot of those labors still haven't been approved or will start making their way through the system.

If that is the case then there is really no need for the USCIS to keep the Priority dates stuck at April 2001.
This is what is really troubling that USCIS seems to be reacting to an expected demand (not current demand). And I think USCIS is not that stupid, they obviously are reacting to some current demads from a flood of Labor Substitutions for Labors dating 1998-April 2001.

neo

 

[can_card]

This thread is for outlook 2007. Lot of things like availability of previous years unused visas have changed since FY2005. It is really confusing to refer 05 as last year. '05 stats have no relevance to '06. If anyone has statistics for last year (FY 2006), it will help the outlook for 2007. Otherwise, it is just a waste of time analyzing '05 stats for '07 leaving '06 inbetween.

FY 2006 is not yet over. USCIS has to approve as many 485s till sep 30, 2006. Therefore no one can tell now, how much visas are issued in each catagory, for each country. DOS will compile those data and publish in their web site. What we are all speculating here is DOS might have mis-managed the visa allocation in EB catagories against the current immigration and nationality act, and they issued less than 40,000 visas to EB2 catagory and diverted that number to EB3. Once they publish the statistics there may be enquiry to DOS, and may be litigation too.

 

[neocor]

7% times 42,000=2,800 greencards including dependents. That is it.

You really think there is less then that number in the system that they could move the dates?

The key question is not "How many" in the system. The key is "Which" System.
They all seems to be still lying in the DOL system.
Why is USCIS reacting to application still languishing in the DOL System, i believe they are not. That would be stupidity.

neo

 

[AGC4ME]

The effect is that there are labors before April 30, 2001 that haven't been approved.

The cases that are in the system currently are more then the greencard quota for India. If USCIS came out and said there are 10,000 cases for India with priority dates before April 30, 2001 then people will start doing their calculations of how long it could take to move past April 30, 2001.

However, once those regular permanent labors get approved and come into 140 system; it could make the pending cases go from 10,000 to 30,000.

It's not like USCIS/DOS can lock in a priority date.

If they gave a breakdown of country and category by year say:


2001 - India 10,000 pending cases
2002- India 20,000 pending cases
2003 - India 30,000
2004- India 40,000

Then there is a goal and you can monitor and make predictions of how long it will take.

However, as the labors get approved from backlog the numbers could get added to 2001- and it could become India 25,000 and so on.

I don't know any other way to give an example but let's say you you need to shovel your driveway.

You start once the snow has stopped and estimate it will take you two hours to finish.

However, you start before it stops snowing and once you finish the first part of the driveway it then builds up again and you have to go and clean it again before you get to the second part.

But the new snow that's falling later will not have a PD of the older precipitation right.... I want to keep the analysis simple. If there are 300k labors pending, do u agree with that number in the first place, why can we not get a year by year breakdown of how many labors were filed and hence will give us an idea of what it would take to cross the APRIL 30 2001 ocean ? If BECs have not cleared 2001 labors yet, are u saying they cleared all other later filed labors that the majority of the pending cases are prior April 2001 ?

 

[santa4u]

300k was a number of backlog count - about 1-2 years ago....we need an updated cout for sure

from my analysis earlier, India was going steady at 40k to 50k demand per year, now, thanks to retrogression one can imagine that the availability is only 10k...so one can imagine...It may take 4 years to ease up 1 year quota demand....We are doomed!

 

[neocor]

300k was a number of backlog count - about 1-2 years ago....we need an updated cout for sure

First was that (300K) an exact count or guest a wild gusstimate?
Also only half of that number would be from 2001 or before.

The numbers just dont add up to justify PD for India EB3 in April 2001, just based on the assumption that its all due to 245i.

It dosn't.

neo

 

[saras76]

Let me throw in some more confusion ..

If that is the case then there is really no need for the USCIS to keep the Priority dates stuck at April 2001.
This is what is really troubling that USCIS seems to be reacting to an expected demand (not current demand). And I think USCIS is not that stupid, they obviously are reacting to some current demads from a flood of Labor Substitutions for Labors dating 1998-April 2001.

neo

Guys and Gals,

I have followed this thread with a lot of interest and the funny part is that I can find plausible things in almost every post. My own theory is the following (PLEASE DO NOT BLAST ME WITH ACCUSATIONS OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES, I AM JUST SHARING MY THOUGHTS )

1. 245i is a big problem but the true extent of the problem remains a mystery and will probably always remain so. Currently I believe DOS and USCIS are reacting mostly to projected demand. I say this because the DOL is only now getting its act together while the dates are stagnating.

2. While dates were current (1999 to July '05) there was utter confusion and mayhem in USCIS. Service centers were approving cases without any regard for PDs. Throw in the changes due to 9/11 (extra security checks and creation of Homeland security) and with the anticiapted 245i tornado in the horizon, the system was on the verge of total collapse. The system had gotten to a point where people with older PDs were being left behind in large numbers. Disaster was imminent.

3. Creation of the BECs and introduction of PERM added another dimension of chaos to this already messed up process. By creating BECs and sending every pending labor to these centers the DOL made things worse in terms of tracking true backlogs. I personally know a lot of people who gave up on the BECs last year itself and applied for PERM. Now there are multiple labors out there. There is no way anyone can estimate an accurate pending labor count.

4. Add to all this Bush's promise to reduce GC processing dates to 6 months by 2006 and you have the the perfect recipe for extreme measures to correct the situation. Is it only me or has anyone noticed that TSC and CSC are within 6 months as of the last processing dates bulletin and others are soon to follow.

Now considering all of the above, if you and I were DOS and USCIS what would we do? We would try to clean up the process with any means possible because moving along the path they were on was leading to total disaster. Hence the absolutely senseless extreme retro introduced in Oct '05. India EB3 in Jan 98? GIVE ME A BREAK .... this was senseless to us but this retro stopped about 60-75% of workload immediately. '06 was used to clean house, introduce new processes (PERM, BI-SPECILAIZATION of service centers, premium processing of EADs, 140s etc). The strategy has worked wonderfully for the USCIS. Almost everyone who is current is enjoying the fastest approvals in history. The few that are left behind are inconsequential. The retro has also made sure that the 245i beast does not throw the system back into chaos so till DOS and USCIS are completely satisified that 245is are under control extreme retro will stay for almost all categories of EB3 (atleast int he short-term)

Finally, labor subs and multiple 140s, 485s are ensuring a long life to the current retro.

The combination of all of the above is the reason for this mess and this mess is here to stay in the short term. We can discuss numbers all day long but if this process was determined by pure numbers and nothing else then it makes sense to base every projection on numbers. Again I am not saying that this is a total conspircay theory, it is just a case where numerous factors are influencing an almost broken system. The current retro has brought about much needed efficiency to this system and has saved it from a total train wreck. Now that the system is running relatively smoothly, the DOS and USIS will make sure that things don't get out of hand anytime soon. Things will be done at a much slower pace with more caution. This retro is here to stay.

Ask a person with current PD and he will tell you that this retro is the best thing to happen in a long time. We may have gotten screwed in the process but it has to be admitted that this retro was much needed. There was no way out for DOS and USCIS.

regards,

saras

 

[guldukan]

double labors

I personally know a lot of people who gave up on the BECs last year itself and applied for PERM. Now there are multiple labors out there. There is no way anyone can estimate an accurate pending labor count.

Finally, labo subs and multiple 140s, 485s are ensuring a long life to this current retro.

regards,

saras

many lawers enjoyed this situation and find an another way to make money by making many guys to apply in PERM, I know personally many of my friends who did this, (of course they are from India).

no wonder India is retrogressed so badly

 

[zzzz4zzzz]

many lawers enjoyed this situation and find an another way to make money by making many guys to apply in PERM, I know personally many of my friends who did this, (of course they are from India).

no wonder India is retrogressed so badly

This is almost correct that lot of people irrespective of country who are in IT
filed atleast 2 labors, one is PERM and another in regular Labor filing which may be in BEC

 

[neocor]

This is almost correct that lot of people irrespective of country who are in IT
filed atleast 2 labors, one is PERM and another in regular Labor filing which may be in BEC

You are fogetting the third, Labor Substitution.
Technically its not really filing the labor as the its an alredy approved labor.

Here is another thing that most lawyers are suggesting to those people who have already filed the 485 but have priority dates after 2003.
They are been advised to buy a labor with PD in 2000 and then file an I-140 on that labor. Then subsitute the priority date of the current 485 using the I-140 substitution rule.
This way you retian the current 485 filing but you get the older priority date.

neo

 

[zzzz4zzzz]

You are fogetting the third, Labor Substitution.
Technically its not really filing the labor as the its an alredy approved labor.

Here is another thing that most lawyers are suggesting to those people who have already filed the 485 but have priority dates after 2003.
They are been advised to buy a labor with PD in 2000 and then file an I-140 on that labor. Then subsitute the priority date of the current 485 using the I-140 substitution rule.
This way you retian the current 485 filing but you get the older priority date.

neo

even if they apply 140/485 thru labor sub with PD 2000, they wont get GCs now
becoz their RDs will be in sept/oct 2006 and Service centers are processing now Mar/Apr 2006, they have to wait until their RD will be with Processing dates

any thoughts???

 

[saras76]

RDs

even if they apply 140/485 thru labor sub with PD 2000, they wont get GCs now
becoz their RDs will be in sept/oct 2006 and Service centers are processing now Mar/Apr 2006, they have to wait until their RD will be with Processing dates

any thoughts???

zzzz4zzzz,

Processing dates are moving ahead at the speed of 2-3 months each month. In this day and age of retro, RDs have become irrelevant to most of us. Those who apply now with current PDs (whether original or Subs) will see approvals within 2-4 months guarnateed. The only thing causing delays with current PDs are Security Checks.

Also in 03 and 04 the RD processing date for TSC was in 02 but cases with RDs in '03,'04 and even '05 were getting approved. The released dates only reflect the oldest cases in the system. They do not necessarily mean that the Service Center is only working on cases prior to that date. This is true for RDs only. As I said in my earlier most, it was a total free for all at that time and now we are paying the price for those

regards,

saras

 

[zzzz4zzzz]

zzzz4zzzz,

Processing dates are moving ahead at the speed of 2-3 month each month. In this day and age of retro, RDs have become irrelevant to most of us. Those who apply now with current PDs (whether original or Subs) will see approvals within 2-4 months guarnateed. The only thing causing delays with current PDs are Security Checks.

regards,

saras

Yes, Saras, you are right

 

[can_card]

This is almost correct that lot of people irrespective of country who are in IT
filed atleast 2 labors, one is PERM and another in regular Labor filing which may be in BEC

Rightly said. Most of the IT guys have 2 or 3 labor certifications. Unused ones creates black marcket, by abusing the law by bodyshoppers. Now the victims are non-IT guys. If any one work in non-IT field and work for a real US employers, it is very difficult to file a even one LC. The mess was created by bodyshoppers mainly in IT field