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October VB Released DV2015

Sloner said:
Typical DV2014
Surprises will not and will not help Nigeria. Peak crash in almost the same numbers. I'm sorry.
Simon, at 125,000 won impossible to call everyone on the interview. That's a lot.o_O
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Finally I agree with you Sloner!!!

Good luck for DV2016!!!
 
AFRICA14,200Except:
Egypt: 6,800
Ethiopia: 7,800
ASIA2,950
EUROPE9,900
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)3
OCEANIA500
SOUTH AMERICA,
and the CARIBBEAN650
 
Britsimon said:
AFRICA14,200Except:
Egypt: 6,800
Ethiopia: 7,800
ASIA2,950
EUROPE9,900
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)3
OCEANIA500
SOUTH AMERICA,
and the CARIBBEAN650
Click to expand...
My phone is just out-dated :(
Anyway thanks simon now I can see it on your post.
AF has a fulgurant move ! Wow
I wish it was like that last year....
How do you explain that ?
Do you think dv14 messed up the quotas and they are trying to give it back to AF?
 
Britsimon said:
Shows both months, side by side. Scroll right on that crappy phone you have!!!!
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Lolol
I'm an poor man dude ! Eveb frankos screens shots I get them printed fore me to admire the fresh data :D
I will get a better one as soon as I step in the US of A bro :)
Now trying to save any little peny ;)
 
vladek15425 said:
My phone is just out-dated :(
Anyway thanks simon now I can see it on your post.
AF has a fulgurant move ! Wow
I wish it was like that last year....
How do you explain that ?
Do you think dv14 messed up the quotas and they are trying to give it back to AF?
Click to expand...

I think it is a bit soon to jump to that conclusion Vladdy. I'm not sure they messed anything up. I think we are going to end DV2014 something like this:-

AF-22k
EU-19k
AS-9k
SA-1.5k
OC-0.8k

That would give a total around 52k - we might see 53. These are numbers including AoS of course.

So - that is pretty understandable. In DV2015, Nigeria is out, so AF might not get to 22k and each region will share those visas, so we could see something like:-

AF-20k
EU-20k
AS-9.5k
SA-1.6k
OC-0.9k
 
Britsimon said:
I think it is a bit soon to jump to that conclusion Vladdy. I'm not sure they messed anything up. I think we are going to end DV2014 something like this:-

AF-22k
EU-19k
AS-9k
SA-1.5k
OC-0.8k

That would give a total around 52k - we might see 53. These are numbers including AoS of course.

So - that is pretty understandable. In DV2015, Nigeria is out, so AF might not get to 22k and each region will share those visas, so we could see something like:-

AF-20k
EU-20k
AS-9.5k
SA-1.6k
OC-0.9k
Click to expand...

Ok still AF took a knock in dv14 with nearly 2k down.
Because the usual quota is 24k+
Anyway I just noticed that AF special countries hardly moved!
So that might be the answer of the good early jump.
I'm suspecting december to move with only 4k for AF...
We have an other year to play the guessing game.... Again
So glad I don't take a punch on the nuts like last year as franko says....lol
 
Simon you are predicting an other knock for AF for dv15 ! At around 20k ?
Is it just because nigeria is out ?
I recall one of your old posts, you said nigeria out won't really benefit the whole globe !
Why wouldn't nigerias visas remain in AF?
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok still AF took a knock in dv14 with nearly 2k down.
Because the usual quota is 24k+
Anyway I just noticed that AF special countries hardly moved!
So that might be the answer of the good early jump.
I'm suspecting december to move with only 4k for AF...
We have an other year to play the guessing game.... Again
So glad I don't take a punch on the nuts like last year as franko says....lol
Click to expand...

Again, don't read too much into the early months. Right now, not a single DV2015 interview has happened, so these numbers are pretty much plucked out of the air.
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon you are predicting an other knock for AF for dv15 ! At around 20k ?
Is it just because nigeria is out ?
I recall one of your old posts, you said nigeria out won't really benefit the whole globe !
Why wouldn't nigerias visas remain in AF?
Click to expand...


I've posted a few times about this over the last couple of months - and no one has argued or agreed with me. Yes I think the AF result will go down because Nigeria is out. I think their visas get returned to the global pool - and therefore distributed in the proportions already set - so AF loses 3K visas and gets about 40% of those back (1.2k)– hence a net 2k reduction. EU would get a 1.2k increase, AS about 550/600, SA about 100 and OC about 60.


I could be wrong about Nigeria visas going back to the pool, but it makes the most sense to me. In that case each region would get a bump in CN progression – so for example we could see EU get to 44/45, AS could go to 15/16 and so on.


AF would have two factors to consider as a result of these changes. One would be the extra visas shared among the remaining countries (a positive factor for CN increase). The other factor is the removal of the holes created by the massive number of Nigeria entries that we don’t have. That will have the effect of increasing density in DV2015 in AF (a negative factor for CN). That latter factor probably outweighs the 1.2k increase – so I think a CN of 80k in 2015 is “higher” that 80k in 2014.


Very happy to hear other views on that.
 
The (targeted) quota for AF will sure see a reduction (-8%). I also agree about a rise in EU and OC quotas (+9%). But according to subsection 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, Nigerian visas are not going back to a global pool but will be (re-) allocated to AF, EU, OC and NA only. This makes perfectly sense. The four regions are the "low-admission regions" in subsection 203(c), which are to be promoted by the Diversity Visa program, whereas AS and SA constitute the "high-admission regions". Within the classes the allocation of visas to the regions is indeed based on population, but before that happens visas are allocated to the two classes, and that's based on past LPR statistics, and not on population.
The above figures are based on Wikipedia's population estimates and are to be taken with a grain. Maybe AS and SA will see a rise of their quotas as well (+1.5%) due to a minuscule shift in LPR stats (taken from http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics).
 
DV4ROGER said:
The (targeted) quota for AF will sure see a reduction (-8%). I also agree about a rise in EU and OC quotas (+9%). But according to subsection 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, Nigerian visas are not going back to a global pool but will be (re-) allocated to AF, EU, OC and NA only. This makes perfectly sense. The four regions are the "low-admission regions" in subsection 203(c), which are to be promoted by the Diversity Visa program, whereas AS and SA constitute the "high-admission regions". Within the classes the allocation of visas to the regions is indeed based on population, but before that happens visas are allocated to the two classes, and that's based on past LPR statistics, and not on population.
The above figures are based on Wikipedia's population estimates and are to be taken with a grain. Maybe AS and SA will see a rise of their quotas as well (+1.5%) due to a minuscule shift in LPR stats (taken from http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics).
Click to expand...

Thanks for that DV4Roger. In terms of the Nigerian visas not being returned to the pool, are you referring to the section (iv) "Redistribution of unused visa numbers" or have you started your calculations from the beginning? I ask because I don't see the Nigerian visas as "unused" because they are excluded from the outset of the year - hence my assumption that the quotas would be applied from the top down. Again though - I appreciate your point and am happy to have someone to bounce it around...
 
Britsimon said:
Thanks for that DV4Roger. In terms of the Nigerian visas not being returned to the pool, are you referring to the section (iv) "Redistribution of unused visa numbers" or have you started your calculations from the beginning? I ask because I don't see the Nigerian visas as "unused" because they are excluded from the outset of the year - hence my assumption that the quotas would be applied from the top down. Again though - I appreciate your point and am happy to have someone to bounce it around...
Click to expand...

I started from scratch. Nigerian visas are not "unused".
 
DV4ROGER said:
I started from scratch. Nigerian visas are not "unused".
Click to expand...

Excellent. Could you post your predicted quotas - I'd be interested to see that. Many of us have talked about the application of the formula but I have never seen anyone translate that into finite numbers. Also did you do that for DV2014?
 
Ok.

DV2014:
According LPR stats of fiscal years 2008-2012 we have a split between low-admission and high-admission regions of 0.186:0.814. These numbers are reversed for the DV program, so low-admission regions get 81.4% of all visas, AS and SA share 18.6%.
Population proportions in the low-admission class are AF:EU:OC = 1090m:830m:38m (I left out Bahamas), which add up to a total of 1958m.
So the quotas would be approx. 1090/1958*81.4% = 45.3% for AF, 34.5% for EU and 1.6% for OC. Taking 53k visas issued this would mean 24k for AF, 18.3k for EU and 840 visas for OC. Note quite agreeing with your spreadsheet, unless there is a massive flood for AF in the next few weeks (and a complete stop for EU).
Since I just wanted to have a rough idea of the (european) scale, I wasn't too scrupulous to the details (e.g. ignoring dependent territories for EU, but not for OC!). It's also a very tedious task to rearrange the statistical tables to match the definition of the different regions in 203(c), which is quite different to the usual LPR statistics, where Mexico is belonging to North America, for instance. The same goes for population stats, especially for EU.

DV2015:
Nigeria accounts for some 170m in population, so the quotas (including a small shift in LPR statistics in FYs 2009-2013) are 920/1788*81.1% = 41.7% for AF, 37.6% for EU and 1.7% for OC.

But honestely, I'm not quite sure whether DoS is working the same numbers.
 
DV4ROGER said:
Ok.

DV2014:
According LPR stats of fiscal years 2008-2012 we have a split between low-admission and high-admission regions of 0.186:0.814. These numbers are reversed for the DV program, so low-admission regions get 81.4% of all visas, AS and SA share 18.6%.
Population proportions in the low-admission class are AF:EU:OC = 1090m:830m:38m (I left out Bahamas), which add up to a total of 1958m.
So the quotas would be approx. 1090/1958*81.4% = 45.3% for AF, 34.5% for EU and 1.6% for OC. Taking 53k visas issued this would mean 24k for AF, 18.3k for EU and 840 visas for OC. Note quite agreeing with your spreadsheet, unless there is a massive flood for AF in the next few weeks (and a complete stop for EU).
Since I just wanted to have a rough idea of the (european) scale, I wasn't too scrupulous to the details (e.g. ignoring dependent territories for EU, but not for OC!). It's also a very tedious task to rearrange the statistical tables to match the definition of the different regions in 203(c), which is quite different to the usual LPR statistics, where Mexico is belonging to North America, for instance. The same goes for population stats, especially for EU.

DV2015:
Nigeria accounts for some 170m in population, so the quotas (including a small shift in LPR statistics in FYs 2009-2013) are 920/1788*81.1% = 41.7% for AF, 37.6% for EU and 1.7% for OC.

But honestely, I'm not quite sure whether DoS is working the same numbers.
Click to expand...

None of us are sure what bloody numbers DoS is looking at!!!

Interesting numbers though - and I really appreciate you taking the time to explain the logic. I think even up to a few months ago, most of us would have put money on those numbers for 2014 being about right. However, as you rightly note, the 2014 results don't really follow 100% accurately. Considering AoS is not in CEAC, EU has already exceeded 18.3 even without anymore cases. Then considering where we are with the other regions it is pretty much impossible for AF to go to 24k. (because EU + AS = SA + OC is already at 30k+ with AoS). However, your numbers get pretty close to what we would expect.

2015 sounds good too. Your numbers suggest AF gets to ~21.5 and EU ~19.5. Doesn't sound crazy to me, although applying this year I'm still thinking EU could see 20 and AF would be a little lower.

Should be a fun year!!!

By the way - welcome to the forum. Are you a 2015 selectee?
 
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