no more October 22nd selection?

[mdawoodm]

@mdawoodm;
i dont tink d new selected winners are from AFRICA?, coz no new winner from africa.
thks

You could be right. Africa is going all right, there seems to be a problem with Asia and Europe cut-off.

 

[unfaithful]

you are wrong,we have people from Egypt and they were selected on 22october,actually we count 13 people on facebook page,they are all from Egypt(Africa)

 

[raevsky]

Question is: why...

Bangladesh

First, the bad news - I don't think that there will be another draw

Second batch is a part of this draw, it is not anothe rone.

In other words, there are selectees out there who have a CN but were not inform of it yet!

True

It may be that not all declared 16,000 AS selectees were informed.

True

not clear.

Absolutely clear. They are extra, in case additional ones are needed.
Not all of those listed in VB will be informed.

 

[raevsky]

Thanks for the info! So question: how do the CN get assigned? we know two facts: (1) they are not consecutive (2) they are assigned sequentially per each region.

So why are they not consecutive? one of the members of this forum (sorry, can't remember who...) suggested the following (theory):

A selectee receives the next number [n] for the region and if there are [k] others listed in the form (wife, children), then numbers [n]+1 to [n]+[k] are skipped.

To me this makes lots of sense. Case number [n] means the [n]th potential visa for the region.

So to estimate the max CN for a region, we need to know the 'factor' for that region. From official publications, we know that for Asia there were 1,055,433 participants and 807,736 Spouse & Children. So the factor is 1.77.

Meaning, according to this theory, for 16,000 selectees from Asia we would expect CN up to ~28500. Yet largest seen is ~12,000...

I find this odd, unless the other theory has some truth in it: not all SN were made public. Some selectees were not (yet) informed...

All this is just a theory, meaning "an assumption that can be refuted" so I guess that il faut que nous eussions un peu de patience

No, the story is different. The numbers are initially consecutive, but as a result of checks some numbers are cancelled, so there are holes in them.
Some were not informed and not all will be informed.