no more October 22nd selection?
- Thread starter DANIELMDQ
- Start date
M
mdawoodm
Guest
The message is still on the web page you can find it : http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1322.html
Despite this i also belive there is no need 2nd draw, rather the KCC must to increase the cut-off numbers, 'cause they are quite low...
lordmuggins
Registered Users (C)
I still get "Based on the information provided, the Entry HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED for further processing for the Electronic Diversity Visa program at this time. More entries will be selected in early October 2012, so please keep your confirmation information until at least that time."
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
DV13 unfolded...??
Hi Everyone,
I'm new to this forum.
To spare you the headache, you can jump to the bottom line
---
As many others I'm puzzled by this year low cut off numbers for Asia.
First, are the AS cut offs really low?
Lets check. Hard to say for sure but seems so. 2350 of 16,045 are 14.65%, the lowest for Asia since at least DV04. Previous low was 17.82 in DV06. It is the lowest also among Europe and Africa. Previous lows were 15.53% for Africa and 15.61% for Europe both also in DV06. Monthly advance rate is also low - 2.8%. Usually it is 5-10%
Question is: why...
First, the bad news - I don't think that there will be another draw. There are more than 105,000 selectees, highest since DV04 (then - 110,663) so there is probably no need for more at this time.
The good news is that I think that not all selectees were informed! I think that the /ESC/ page gave a negative answer to those with CN higher than some limit decided per each region (very simple to implement grammatically btw...).
In other words, there are selectees out there who have a CN but were not inform of it yet!
There is a 'rumor' going on that AS selectees with SN > 10000 did not present themselves yet and perhaps do not exist. It may be that not all declared 16,000 AS selectees were informed.
So lets assume that only 10K AS selectees were informed. For 10K the AS cut off numbers are quite normal: 23.5% compared to Africa 26.69% and Europe 21.16%
So why report 16K selectees but inform only 10K? not clear. One possible reason: spread the load. Inform the rest at a later time. Well... why only (or mostly) Asia? I noticed in this forum a AF person with SN 7x,xxx (I think the limit for AF is ~76K never mind why...)
So what's special about this year for AS? At a glance, there is something different. Bangladesh. In DV12 Bangladesh contributed 7.5 of the 8.5 million AS participants, with ~2300 selectees. In DV13 Bangladesh was not in the game.
So maybe the Powers That Be are not sure what to make of this. Maybe they are not sure whether to inform all AS selectees - they don't want to inform and then cancel like last year... so they wait... Maybe...
--
Bottom line: I have no idea what's going on and why... BUT I do believe that not all selectees were informed and they WILL be informed at a future date - at the 22th or later date, and as a result, cut off numbers will pick up speed.
What ever the case is - health and success to everyone,
AS8K
Hi Everyone,
I'm new to this forum.
To spare you the headache, you can jump to the bottom line
---
As many others I'm puzzled by this year low cut off numbers for Asia.
First, are the AS cut offs really low?
Lets check. Hard to say for sure but seems so. 2350 of 16,045 are 14.65%, the lowest for Asia since at least DV04. Previous low was 17.82 in DV06. It is the lowest also among Europe and Africa. Previous lows were 15.53% for Africa and 15.61% for Europe both also in DV06. Monthly advance rate is also low - 2.8%. Usually it is 5-10%
Question is: why...
First, the bad news - I don't think that there will be another draw. There are more than 105,000 selectees, highest since DV04 (then - 110,663) so there is probably no need for more at this time.
The good news is that I think that not all selectees were informed! I think that the /ESC/ page gave a negative answer to those with CN higher than some limit decided per each region (very simple to implement grammatically btw...).
In other words, there are selectees out there who have a CN but were not inform of it yet!
There is a 'rumor' going on that AS selectees with SN > 10000 did not present themselves yet and perhaps do not exist. It may be that not all declared 16,000 AS selectees were informed.
So lets assume that only 10K AS selectees were informed. For 10K the AS cut off numbers are quite normal: 23.5% compared to Africa 26.69% and Europe 21.16%
So why report 16K selectees but inform only 10K? not clear. One possible reason: spread the load. Inform the rest at a later time. Well... why only (or mostly) Asia? I noticed in this forum a AF person with SN 7x,xxx (I think the limit for AF is ~76K never mind why...)
So what's special about this year for AS? At a glance, there is something different. Bangladesh. In DV12 Bangladesh contributed 7.5 of the 8.5 million AS participants, with ~2300 selectees. In DV13 Bangladesh was not in the game.
So maybe the Powers That Be are not sure what to make of this. Maybe they are not sure whether to inform all AS selectees - they don't want to inform and then cancel like last year... so they wait... Maybe...
--
Bottom line: I have no idea what's going on and why
... BUT I do believe that not all selectees were informed and they WILL be informed at a future date - at the 22th or later date, and as a result, cut off numbers will pick up speed. What ever the case is - health and success to everyone,
AS8K
M
mdawoodm
Guest
Asian winners with case numbers above 10000 do exist. Infact, I know one with 105**. As told by a cosultancy who deals with DV cases, there are also winners above 11000 that they have seen.
So wait till the upcoming bulletin!
Best of luck!
kavisiromani
Registered Users (C)
Hi Everyone,
I'm new to this forum.
To spare you the headache, you can jump to the bottom line
---
As many others I'm puzzled by this year low cut off numbers for Asia.
First, are the AS cut offs really low?
Lets check. Hard to say for sure but seems so. 2350 of 16,045 are 14.65%, the lowest for Asia since at least DV04. Previous low was 17.82 in DV06. It is the lowest also among Europe and Africa. Previous lows were 15.53% for Africa and 15.61% for Europe both also in DV06. Monthly advance rate is also low - 2.8%. Usually it is 5-10%
Question is: why...
First, the bad news - I don't think that there will be another draw. There are more than 105,000 selectees, highest since DV04 (then - 110,663) so there is probably no need for more at this time.
The good news is that I think that not all selectees were informed! I think that the /ESC/ page gave a negative answer to those with CN higher than some limit decided per each region (very simple to implement grammatically btw...).
In other words, there are selectees out there who have a CN but were not inform of it yet!
There is a 'rumor' going on that AS selectees with SN > 10000 did not present themselves yet and perhaps do not exist. It may be that not all declared 16,000 AS selectees were informed.
So lets assume that only 10K AS selectees were informed. For 10K the AS cut off numbers are quite normal: 23.5% compared to Africa 26.69% and Europe 21.16%
So why report 16K selectees but inform only 10K? not clear. One possible reason: spread the load. Inform the rest at a later time. Well... why only (or mostly) Asia? I noticed in this forum a AF person with SN 7x,xxx (I think the limit for AF is ~76K never mind why...)
So what's special about this year for AS? At a glance, there is something different. Bangladesh. In DV12 Bangladesh contributed 7.5 of the 8.5 million AS participants, with ~2300 selectees. In DV13 Bangladesh was not in the game.
So maybe the Powers That Be are not sure what to make of this. Maybe they are not sure whether to inform all AS selectees - they don't want to inform and then cancel like last year... so they wait... Maybe...
--
Bottom line: I have no idea what's going on and why
What ever the case is - health and success to everyone,
AS8K
One hell of a analysis. Wow..
(seems you already posses lot of data and subsequent analysis, nonetheless if you need python code to fetch Visa Bulletin data, perhaps change the code to do your own analysis then a crude form of the code is here..
https://github.com/iamaaditya/Visa_Bulletin_Extract
Going by my analysis, I am not sure why people are panicking in the sense, if there are only 16K selectees for Asia then the pace of Visa Interview is just fine, (i.e keeping the view that they want to spread interview till Sep 13)
Regards....
Hi Everyone,
I'm new to this forum.
To spare you the headache, you can jump to the bottom line
---
As many others I'm puzzled by this year low cut off numbers for Asia.
First, are the AS cut offs really low?
Lets check. Hard to say for sure but seems so. 2350 of 16,045 are 14.65%, the lowest for Asia since at least DV04. Previous low was 17.82 in DV06. It is the lowest also among Europe and Africa. Previous lows were 15.53% for Africa and 15.61% for Europe both also in DV06. Monthly advance rate is also low - 2.8%. Usually it is 5-10%
Question is: why...
First, the bad news - I don't think that there will be another draw. There are more than 105,000 selectees, highest since DV04 (then - 110,663) so there is probably no need for more at this time.
The good news is that I think that not all selectees were informed! I think that the /ESC/ page gave a negative answer to those with CN higher than some limit decided per each region (very simple to implement grammatically btw...).
In other words, there are selectees out there who have a CN but were not inform of it yet!
There is a 'rumor' going on that AS selectees with SN > 10000 did not present themselves yet and perhaps do not exist. It may be that not all declared 16,000 AS selectees were informed.
So lets assume that only 10K AS selectees were informed. For 10K the AS cut off numbers are quite normal: 23.5% compared to Africa 26.69% and Europe 21.16%
So why report 16K selectees but inform only 10K? not clear. One possible reason: spread the load. Inform the rest at a later time. Well... why only (or mostly) Asia? I noticed in this forum a AF person with SN 7x,xxx (I think the limit for AF is ~76K never mind why...)
So what's special about this year for AS? At a glance, there is something different. Bangladesh. In DV12 Bangladesh contributed 7.5 of the 8.5 million AS participants, with ~2300 selectees. In DV13 Bangladesh was not in the game.
So maybe the Powers That Be are not sure what to make of this. Maybe they are not sure whether to inform all AS selectees - they don't want to inform and then cancel like last year... so they wait... Maybe...
--
Bottom line: I have no idea what's going on and why
What ever the case is - health and success to everyone,
AS8K
Hi,
i really appreciate ur critical analysis. if 16000 Asians were selected, then definitely case number will go upto 16000 if no other entrants were selected within 16000, hence entrants from other regions were selected between these, the case no. of Asians should definitely move upwards. but only case number till 10000 is seen. hence it is more of less clear that kcc have only displayed about 50% of the selected entrants.n remaining selected entrants may be displayed on 22nd of october..
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
The CN theory
Thanks for the info! So question: how do the CN get assigned? we know two facts: (1) they are not consecutive (2) they are assigned sequentially per each region.
So why are they not consecutive? one of the members of this forum (sorry, can't remember who...) suggested the following (theory):
A selectee receives the next number [n] for the region and if there are [k] others listed in the form (wife, children), then numbers [n]+1 to [n]+[k] are skipped.
To me this makes lots of sense. Case number [n] means the [n]th potential visa for the region.
So to estimate the max CN for a region, we need to know the 'factor' for that region. From official publications, we know that for Asia there were 1,055,433 participants and 807,736 Spouse & Children. So the factor is 1.77.
Meaning, according to this theory, for 16,000 selectees from Asia we would expect CN up to ~28500. Yet largest seen is ~12,000...
I find this odd, unless the other theory has some truth in it: not all SN were made public. Some selectees were not (yet) informed...
All this is just a theory, meaning "an assumption that can be refuted" so I guess that il faut que nous eussions un peu de patience
Thanks for the info! So question: how do the CN get assigned? we know two facts: (1) they are not consecutive (2) they are assigned sequentially per each region.
So why are they not consecutive? one of the members of this forum (sorry, can't remember who...) suggested the following (theory):
A selectee receives the next number [n] for the region and if there are [k] others listed in the form (wife, children), then numbers [n]+1 to [n]+[k] are skipped.
To me this makes lots of sense. Case number [n] means the [n]th potential visa for the region.
So to estimate the max CN for a region, we need to know the 'factor' for that region. From official publications, we know that for Asia there were 1,055,433 participants and 807,736 Spouse & Children. So the factor is 1.77.
Meaning, according to this theory, for 16,000 selectees from Asia we would expect CN up to ~28500. Yet largest seen is ~12,000...
I find this odd, unless the other theory has some truth in it: not all SN were made public. Some selectees were not (yet) informed...
All this is just a theory, meaning "an assumption that can be refuted" so I guess that il faut que nous eussions un peu de patience
enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
Wow amazing! now it is official - there is a tool for everything on the internet!
problem is that half of the information is in .pdfs and other documents - not just the VB chances of being selected is about 1.5% so the idea is to get to the better place before I get to a "better place"...
but you are right - I should relax, stop panicking and take those pills the nice Doctor suggested
puda
Registered Users (C)
Well I am pretty sure that you have seen than even for October 2013 there will be a 2nd draw... So I would think that they will do one this year right? What I find weird is that we don't see the date of october 22nd anymore...
I am like you guys, hoping there is still a chance but between you and me... It's like going away every day!
Have you heard about someone who would have been selected during the 2nd draw?
I am like you guys, hoping there is still a chance but between you and me... It's like going away every day!
Have you heard about someone who would have been selected during the 2nd draw?
once you try to check your confirmation number, and get to the infamous "HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED" screen, the end of the sentance states the following: "More entries will be selected in early October 2012, so please keep your confirmation information until at least that time"
so.. now what? are we supposed to check again every day? what does "early October" mean? we need KCC to clarify this.
so.. now what? are we supposed to check again every day? what does "early October" mean? we need KCC to clarify this.
Last edited by a moderator:
Thanks for the info! So question: how do the CN get assigned? we know two facts: (1) they are not consecutive (2) they are assigned sequentially per each region.
So why are they not consecutive? one of the members of this forum (sorry, can't remember who...) suggested the following (theory):
A selectee receives the next number [n] for the region and if there are [k] others listed in the form (wife, children), then numbers [n]+1 to [n]+[k] are skipped.
To me this makes lots of sense. Case number [n] means the [n]th potential visa for the region.
So to estimate the max CN for a region, we need to know the 'factor' for that region. From official publications, we know that for Asia there were 1,055,433 participants and 807,736 Spouse & Children. So the factor is 1.77.
Meaning, according to this theory, for 16,000 selectees from Asia we would expect CN up to ~28500. Yet largest seen is ~12,000...
I find this odd, unless the other theory has some truth in it: not all SN were made public. Some selectees were not (yet) informed...
All this is just a theory, meaning "an assumption that can be refuted" so I guess that il faut que nous eussions un peu de patience
Thank you, it is very details!
May I also ask you, KCC said 50,000 DV issue every year, assume every selectees with 0.77 dependents or spouse (Total 1.77) no matter what region, 50,000 is 50,000 * 1.77 visa issue, or 28,248 * 1.77 = 50,000 visa issue? Thank you!
puda
Registered Users (C)
I am not too sure about that. It's been like that since May 1rst 2012!
unfaithful
Registered Users (C)
early October could mean the first week of October,but we still have to wait untile 22 to see what happen! i still will check my status this Sunday as it's the last that of early October,any thing can happen! if not then it's only 15 days before 22!
good luck
good luck
more entries will be selected in early october
hello guys i have a question concerning the entries that may be selected in early october 2012 we are over the 22nd of october and i checked my statut i found the same message (please keep your confirmation number until at least that time.....)so is there any news about that?
hello guys i have a question concerning the entries that may be selected in early october 2012 we are over the 22nd of october and i checked my statut i found the same message (please keep your confirmation number until at least that time.....)so is there any news about that?
M
mdawoodm
Guest
The 22nd selection indeed was carried out, and as a result, an addtional 10,000 new winners were selected. This is a confirmed thing, as I was told by KCC. There could also be additional selections in the future, so don't lose your confirmation number ever. Keep checking your status regularly.
Best of luck!
@mdawoodm;
i dont tink d new selected winners are from AFRICA?, coz no new winner from africa.
thks