I think LolaLi is correct, and actually it makes even more sense when you surmise that people who would have ordinarily applied after July, preponed their decision to apply. Hence there were fewer than normal applicants after the July bump. I am guessing that some people who would have applied in August, September preponed their application.
No need to surmise; statistics kept by USCIS bear this out. Actually, September receipts were up a bit from the previous year, but all subsequent months have been low compared to the previous year. Personally, I grumble a bit at the "preponers." They're actually postponers, since they ought to have applied when eligible, not just to save a few hundred bucks.
Assuming that there were no bottlenecks at any stage of the processing cycle in the normal course of events (i.e. before the July bump), none of us should see any delay in the TOTAL processing time. There will be shifts in how long each stage takes, but the total time should remain the same (approx. 8 months from application to interview)
I don't follow your logic here. The point is that USCIS currently has an unprecedented backlog of more than a million N-400 cases (nationally). This constitutes a bottleneck for the whole process.
In fact, the people who might have gotten delayed are the people who applied 2-3 months before July '07.
I haven't followed Newark that closely, but I can tell that in the case of NYC, May, June, and early July applicants have generally seen normal timelines (7 months or so), while a number of late July, August, September folks are still waiting for ILs (with sporadic exceptions as late as December).
I am sure that resources that were otherwise devoted to a later stage of the process were redeployed to an earlier stage (i.e. from interview scheduling to NOA, check cashing etc.) helping the people who applied during July and afterwards in August, September.
Well, these are different jobs, handled by the Service Centers and the District Offices. The initial crisis in autumn was due to the fact that resources had not been redeployed, at least not sufficiently so, resulting in the so-called receipting (and check-cashing) "frontlog."
BTW, I heard that I got my IL today too ( I check over the phone since I am not at home these days ) ! Best of luck to everyone else.
Congratulations! The preponderance of evidence in the last few days certainly seems to suggest, as LolaLi says, that the hump has been scaled at Newark DO. I have my fingers crossed that NYC will follow suit.