I don't think, EB2-I will be unavailable for FY 2009. At least there would be a 10,000 spill over visa from EB1 category. As per, Charles's (DOS) testimony to Congress last year, EB1 spill over will go to EB2 and this will not have any per-country limit for spill over visas. Strictly, this spill over visas will be allotted based on Priority date. In EB2 categories, only India and China are retrogressed. China has cut off date 15 Feb 2005 hence all spill over visas will go to EB2-I with priority date earlier than 15 FEB 2005. If still spill over visa available, it will go EB2 India and EB2 China in order of priority dates.
Definitely, in July 2009 visa Bulletin (Normally State Department allots spill over visa in last quarter) EB2 India will hit early 2006 cut off dates. I did following analysis on other forum last month:
DOL approved labor as follow
For India (all category assume 50% are EB2)
2005 : 1350 (EB2-I : 675)
2006 : 22298 (EB2-I : 11149)
2007 : 24573 (EB2-I : 12286)
2007 before July 2007 (approximately 65%)
July 2007 : 15972 (EB2-I : 7986)
2007 labor approval is for FY (up to Sept 07). If person have approved labor before July 2007, 99% he/she might have filed I 485.
Consider derivative (Dependent) factor : 2.5
Following numbers of I 485 pending applications for EB2-I:
2006 : 27872
2007 : 19965
Total : 47837
As per Sen Kyl's information pending I 485 for EB2 India : 51717
EB2-I PD before 1 Jan 2006 are 51717 less 47837 = 3880
Fairly break up of EB2-I would be as follow:
PD Before 31 Dec 2005 : 3880 (if we consider 50% margin of error could not be more than 5820)
PD Before 31 Dec 2006 : 31752 (3880 + 27872)
PD before July 2007 : 51717 (3880 +27872 + 19965)
If this data is true, It would be easily hit early 2006 cut off date for EB2-I in August/Sept 2009 VB
Good luck Guys !!!
may be eb2 will be unavailable in June... what is going on here? I thought clintons will support some changes