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Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

audio said:
That's more like the answer of my question. Yeah, I know you were confused, it was just a coincidence.

Do you "feel" that SA will be current or it will stop in 1500 or something in between?
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Quite simply I haven't seen any evidence that suggests we will see any region go current. From that I mean that every region (and globally) is oversubscribed. There is a chance they use "current" differently to what most of us understand as its meaning. Most of us believe that a region can go current when KCC determine there are sufficient remaining visas to satisfy remaining demand. Given the oversubscription, I don't see how that could be truie. However, perhaps they would put a region current and then control the allocation of visas through careful scheduling of appointments. That would be possible, but a lot more work - and I would be surprised if they do that.

By the way, I am in "respectful disagreement" with Malcom (and others) on the predictions in this thread because the data for the assumption is a moving target and probably incomplete. So - to extrapolate out from that data when the answer goes against previous years experience seems risky to me.

So - to answer your question I don't think SA will go current, I think the global (or potentially regional) cutoff will hit before the end of the year.
 
usadv said:
My husband is principle applicant 2014AS11XXX . We are in USA on F1 I would like to know what way is best for us AOS or CP. If he choosed to go for CP can he only go or we all 4 family members should go there? due to many reasons , If he decided to go alone with out family, will his visa GC denied in CP? at the same time can we 3 mem do AOS here? Also he had work off campus and filled tax , does that matter in CP processing?

Thank you.
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OK, a couple of things.

For a CP interview all the family members should (usually) be there.
There are various comparisons and both aos and cp each have advantages. This year there are more selectees than needed, so I think aos cases that start later in the year are riskier than a normal year. So, depending on your country AS11XXX may be considered a high number and therefore CP could be safer.
For aos it is important that you have remained in status - so if this off campus work was outside of the authorization, then aos would not be advisable. CP in that case would be safer since that would not come up in a CP interview.
 
britsimon said:
OK, a couple of things.

For a CP interview all the family members should (usually) be there.
There are various comparisons and both aos and cp each have advantages. This year there are more selectees than needed, so I think aos cases that start later in the year are riskier than a normal year. So, depending on your country AS11XXX may be considered a high number and therefore CP could be safer.
For aos it is important that you have remained in status - so if this off campus work was outside of the authorization, then aos would not be advisable. CP in that case would be safer since that would not come up in a CP interview.
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Thank you britsimon for you reply. One question, But he has to mentions his off campus work in Ds 220 right? It will not be an issue in his CP interview? :confused:

Anyway, Thank you and Sm1smom for you quick and valuable answers. Really Appreciated.
 
usadv said:
Thank you britsimon for you reply. One question, But he has to mentions his off campus work in Ds 220 right? It will not be an issue in his CP interview? :confused:

Anyway, Thank you and Sm1smom for you quick and valuable answers. Really Appreciated.
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Well in a CP interview (which is normally very quick, like 2 or 3 minutes) they don't go much into work history as long as the principal applicant is qualified by education (i.e. US High school level). As Sm1smom replied in the other thread this might come back to haunt him later on. BY the way, Sm1smom also gave a good explanation of the follow to join process - along with the downsides if not completed this year.

The DV application process is a simple process - but people make it more complicated when they step outside the rules or instructions....
 
britsimon said:
Quite simply I haven't seen any evidence that suggests we will see any region go current. From that I mean that every region (and globally) is oversubscribed. There is a chance they use "current" differently to what most of us understand as its meaning. Most of us believe that a region can go current when KCC determine there are sufficient remaining visas to satisfy remaining demand. Given the oversubscription, I don't see how that could be truie. However, perhaps they would put a region current and then control the allocation of visas through careful scheduling of appointments. That would be possible, but a lot more work - and I would be surprised if they do that.

By the way, I am in "respectful disagreement" with Malcom (and others) on the predictions in this thread because the data for the assumption is a moving target and probably incomplete. So - to extrapolate out from that data when the answer goes against previous years experience seems risky to me.

So - to answer your question I don't think SA will go current, I think the global (or potentially regional) cutoff will hit before the end of the year.
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Hi buddy!!! How are you?
To step on this subject, a little late, I need to ask you: What do you think will be the final cutoff for SA?
Don't you think they may try a thing I found somewhere that they went current on july or june and then a cutoff for the next month?
I'm trying to find out where I see that!!!
 
Veronice said:
Hi buddy!!! How are you?
To step on this subject, a little late, I need to ask you: What do you think will be the final cutoff for SA?
Don't you think they may try a thing I found somewhere that they went current on july or june and then a cutoff for the next month?
I'm trying to find out where I see that!!!
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Hi Vero! I hope all is well for you - are things getting better (safer)?

I think it is very hard to predict the final cutoff - especially in case numbers. It seems that every region (apart from EU) is behind where there should be - especially considering the extra selectees. That would normally suggest very high response rates but the CEAC data doesn't really show that - so I am at a loss to know what to think.

Could they go current and then go back to a cutoff - well I suppose anything is possible (especially this year). If I had to guess though I would be expecting not to see current for (almost) any region. Maybe OC region could go current - but only if the regional quota is significantly higher than levels attained previous years (which were years where the limit was not met). For SA, progress is going pretty well so I think we will see numbers in the 2000+ range for sure. Your number should be current in July.
 
britsimon said:
Hi Vero! I hope all is well for you - are things getting better (safer)?

I think it is very hard to predict the final cutoff - especially in case numbers. It seems that every region (apart from EU) is behind where there should be - especially considering the extra selectees. That would normally suggest very high response rates but the CEAC data doesn't really show that - so I am at a loss to know what to think.

Could they go current and then go back to a cutoff - well I suppose anything is possible (especially this year). If I had to guess though I would be expecting not to see current for (almost) any region. Maybe OC region could go current - but only if the regional quota is significantly higher than levels attained previous years (which were years where the limit was not met). For SA, progress is going pretty well so I think we will see numbers in the 2000+ range for sure. Your number should be current in July.
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My friend! If my number is current by July, I'll be the happiest woman on earth!!! Things in my country are going "organized". People keep fighting the government but in a more strategical way...
Last monday, something beautiful happened:
On Sunday, government ordered the army to CLEAN the square where all the students get together and where the army hits them every night. So, on monday morning, the square was completely militarized and people was thoroughly revised to just walk near that square. Then people found out that the "president" wanted to address the world from that square, to show that "nothing is happening" in Venezuela. Well... people from all the city went to the square, with flags and candles... in a very pacific way, and were so much people that army retired and the transmission was "cancelled for minor technical reasons". It was almost poetical.
It was a triumph, bigger than it looks.
But, still fighting and so many students killed just because they want something better...

Thank you so much!
XOXO
 
info

When will ceac data till 6500 cn available for asia ???
 
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Plz guys what do u think of my number ? Will I get a chance acording to the rate of africa CN.??:confused:
 
britsimon said:
Quite simply I haven't seen any evidence that suggests we will see any region go current. From that I mean that every region (and globally) is oversubscribed. There is a chance they use "current" differently to what most of us understand as its meaning. Most of us believe that a region can go current when KCC determine there are sufficient remaining visas to satisfy remaining demand. Given the oversubscription, I don't see how that could be truie. However, perhaps they would put a region current and then control the allocation of visas through careful scheduling of appointments. That would be possible, but a lot more work - and I would be surprised if they do that.

By the way, I am in "respectful disagreement" with Malcom (and others) on the predictions in this thread because the data for the assumption is a moving target and probably incomplete. So - to extrapolate out from that data when the answer goes against previous years experience seems risky to me.

So - to answer your question I don't think SA will go current, I think the global (or potentially regional) cutoff will hit before the end of the year.
Click to expand...

I still believe that "CURRENT" doesn't mean that there are enough visas for all the winners.. It means they are interviewing winners with out a cut off till the quota fills......... once the quota got filled, they stop interviews..........
 
Hi

A i see that all your prediction as only for AS, why there is not specially analysis for AF as well, you are doing greatful work and as you all knew AF has some cut offs as well ad high CN, Malcomx i wish to hear from the situation of Egypt as we have CN up to 41k and 5775 winner, so what will happen with us?

second point the CN FROM 26-36 what is their chances in that?

thirdly, Do you think Egypt will reach its cut off numbers before July and will hit its visas limit?

please give your greatful reply on my question as i trust you all here :)
 
I've put a detailed analysis for Africa, as I indicated Egypt will reach their the max CN soon, why:
DV2013 --> selected=5000, scheduled for an interview= 3087 , max CN number = 23000, of course you have few higher CNs but we don't take then into consideration,

DV2014, we have 700 selectee more, this will give 200 additional CN maximum, we already have more then 2850 scheduled and the max CN is around 22000, if we add 200 CNs we will have between 25000 and 26000 and that will be the max CN for Egypt, of course you can have CNs between 26k and 41k but not with the same density and that CNs can be considered a special cases, so I am sure that Egypt will not have a special cuttoff starting from the next month (June) or in the worst case scenario in July,

kermo said:
Hi

A i see that all your prediction as only for AS, why there is not specially analysis for AF as well, you are doing greatful work and as you all knew AF has some cut offs as well ad high CN, Malcomx i wish to hear from the situation of Egypt as we have CN up to 41k and 5775 winner, so what will happen with us?

second point the CN FROM 26-36 what is their chances in that?

thirdly, Do you think Egypt will reach its cut off numbers before July and will hit its visas limit?

please give your greatful reply on my question as i trust you all here :)
Click to expand...
 
MalcomX said:
I've put a detailed analysis for Africa, as I indicated Egypt will reach their the max CN soon, why:
DV2013 --> selected=5000, scheduled for an interview= 3087 , max CN number = 23000, of course you have few higher CNs but we don't take then into consideration
Click to expand...

Did you use raevsky's' 2013Data ?
 
Nerandima said:
I still believe that "CURRENT" doesn't mean that there are enough visas for all the winners.. It means they are interviewing winners with out a cut off till the quota fills......... once the quota got filled, they stop interviews..........
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Well that is what I said it might mean - but that would be a lot more work for KCC and I am sure it would be a less efficient system - so I doubt it. The normal understanding of current comes from the definitions that USCIS have made public, but there is a small chance I suppose that KCC use it differently. Either way, the way you describe it, the effect would be the same - i.e. high numbers would not get an interview.
 
britsimon said:
Well that is what I said it might mean - but that would be a lot more work for KCC and I am sure it would be a less efficient system - so I doubt it. The normal understanding of current comes from the definitions that USCIS have made public, but there is a small chance I suppose that KCC use it differently. Either way, the way you describe it, the effect would be the same - i.e. high numbers would not get an interview.
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What do you think about this word "CURRENT" my other friends?????????
 
Guys i need your view in this regard... if anyone marries after the first letter, will the added dependent visa will be deducted from the DV visa or family preference visa?
 
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