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Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

Ok what I feel about asia i want to discuss some points... ok some problems of aisa are as follows...
1. very slow progress ... the major lag was due to those two months in which increase was just 150 and 350 increase...
2. one noticeable factor was 5350 has total selectee 5900 it clearly gives the reason of the slow progress... if all the ready donot goes to interview then its other than with such case how will the higher case will get chance... its really matter to discuss...
3. another fact is asia is lagging 1 month back then last year even with so much high cases this year... last year there was not single person in forum claiming the case above 10k but this year even with such high cases even it lags by one month...if u see last year data iran had 6k selectee same as this year and difference is just Nepal has 1700 more selectee this year than last year... so if u see last year data such cutoff also able to fill 9.4k VIsa from asia..



Even with such cases still the good sign is the visa issue is still not so high with even 6.5 months of interview finished.. but i really expecting to see good growth in vb for asia before its to late... other wise frankly speaking its not different till now from last year. I am afraid asia will goes current.. till now asia is still mystery...
 
Rayme said:
Ok what I feel about asia i want to discuss some points... ok some problems of aisa are as follows...
1. very slow progress ... the major lag was due to those two months in which increase was just 150 and 350 increase...
2. one noticeable factor was 5350 has total selectee 5900 it clearly gives the reason of the slow progress... if all the ready donot goes to interview then its other than with such case how will the higher case will get chance... its really matter to discuss...
3. another fact is asia is lagging 1 month back then last year even with so much high cases this year... last year there was not single person in forum claiming the case above 10k but this year even with such high cases even it lags by one month...if u see last year data iran had 6k selectee same as this year and difference is just Nepal has 1700 more selectee this year than last year... so if u see last year data such cutoff also able to fill 9.4k VIsa from asia..



Even with such cases still the good sign is the visa issue is still not so high with even 6.5 months of interview finished.. but i really expecting to see good growth in vb for asia before its to late... other wise frankly speaking its not different till now from last year. I am afraid asia will goes current.. till now asia is still mystery...
Click to expand...

I have the same problems................ Also the capacity of embassies to held interviews if there are big jumps........
 
Rayme said:
Ok what I feel about asia i want to discuss some points... ok some problems of aisa are as follows...
1. very slow progress ... the major lag was due to those two months in which increase was just 150 and 350 increase...
2. one noticeable factor was 5350 has total selectee 5900 it clearly gives the reason of the slow progress... if all the ready donot goes to interview then its other than with such case how will the higher case will get chance... its really matter to discuss...
3. another fact is asia is lagging 1 month back then last year even with so much high cases this year... last year there was not single person in forum claiming the case above 10k but this year even with such high cases even it lags by one month...if u see last year data iran had 6k selectee same as this year and difference is just Nepal has 1700 more selectee this year than last year... so if u see last year data such cutoff also able to fill 9.4k VIsa from asia..



Even with such cases still the good sign is the visa issue is still not so high with even 6.5 months of interview finished.. but i really expecting to see good growth in vb for asia before its to late... other wise frankly speaking its not different till now from last year. I am afraid asia will goes current.. till now asia is still mystery...
Click to expand...

1. Asia is not slow in progress. Look at the selectees interviews it scheduled and not the CN. Asia is running on 1k selectees per month. Let say the quota is 10k, it will have 12k selectees interviewed by end of DV14. Of course it will increase more if refused and AP cases increases.
2. Yes, if the Ready cases do not go for interview and the rate of AP cases status more or less the same for the remaining months then Asia will go current even includes Nepal. In Asia only 38% inteviews turn to visa issued, 23270 x 38% = 8842 much lower than 9.4k DV13 Asia visas issued. This is a big if anyway.
3. There are 2 explanations to this. First the derivatives ratio might be higher in DV13 than DV14, that is why it can have ~ 11k CN and contain 16.5k selectees. Second is the probability come into play, in the selection process select the additional selectees Rest of Asia (DV13 - Rest of Asia only have 6.3k selectees and in DV14 - The Rest of Asia has 11.5k). Maybe after Iran and Nepal artificially reached to their limit during selection then only about 20% chances it will pick Rest of Asia selectees from the regional selection pool hence it create more holes from around 14k to ~30K. 30K??? Yes, my prediction tell me that the highest CN is not 23k or 27k, it can goes up to slightly above 30k.
 
Kayend i reckon its slow coz u see after 6.5 months visa issue for asia is not 2500 till..
 
Rayme said:
Kayend i reckon its slow coz u see after 6.5 months visa issue for asia is not 2500 till..
Click to expand...

If you refer to visa issuing rate is slow then it is a good thing to high CN because the success rate is low. My previous post was referring to slowness of CN progress.
 
Malcom, because of you again i have started to dream....... are you 100% sure that Asia will go current or at least reach to around 20k?????????????????
 
Hi Guys!

Something I don't understand about SA region prediction is: if the CEAC data from 03-02-2014 says that the last CN was 1137 and there are only 475 visas ready, how's possible that they run out of visas in CN 1558? There is a lot of families with 1 member, then with 3. And if we compare the pace of visas given each month is an average of 95 visas per month and for the 12 months of the year it will be 1140 visas in total and they assigned us 1373, for me is current.

And for me is still weird that since CN 855 everyone got ready status on their apps, not even one refuse, not even one issued, or they became lazy and don't want to write so much or maybe is because they know we are going to get current.

As you can notice i'm not into stadistics, lol, but I wanna learn how you get all those numbers and results, please... for dummies ^_^

Thanx!!
 
audio said:
Hi Guys!

Something I don't understand about SA region prediction is: if the CEAC data from 03-02-2014 says that the last CN was 1137 and there are only 475 visas ready, how's possible that they run out of visas in CN 1558? There is a lot of families with 1 member, then with 3. And if we compare the pace of visas given each month is an average of 95 visas per month and for the 12 months of the year it will be 1140 visas in total and they assigned us 1373, for me is current.

And for me is still weird that since CN 855 everyone got ready status on their apps, not even one refuse, not even one issued, or they became lazy and don't want to write so much or maybe is because they know we are going to get current.

As you can notice i'm not into stadistics, lol, but I wanna learn how you get all those numbers and results, please... for dummies ^_^

Thanx!!
Click to expand...

I think a lot of people confuse themselves with this.

The CEAC data was taken on March 2. That means it could only possibly have included interviews completed during February. For February the cutoff for Feb was 850, so there would be no results (only ready status) for cases above 850. The numbers run higher than that of course because at 3/2/2014 there were scheduled interviews up to the end of April - by that time the cutoff was (is) 1140. SO - you are looking at 5 months of interviews completed and 7 months of interviews scheduled.

I think that answers both your questions.....
 
referring to the calculation that I did: YES , I think that everybody agree that Nepal will reach very soon the country limit, after that the AS CN will move faster ....

Nerandima said:
Malcom, because of you again i have started to dream....... are you 100% sure that Asia will go current or at least reach to around 20k?????????????????
Click to expand...
 
(in addition) That's why when we do statistics and we use the CEAC data, we don't take in consideration the ready cases at the end, in our example we use only the data of the first 5 months, of course when we make a statistics related to the number of the CNs density or things like that so we can use all the 7 months in our exemple,

britsimon said:
I think a lot of people confuse themselves with this.

The CEAC data was taken on March 2. That means it could only possibly have included interviews completed during February. For February the cutoff for Feb was 850, so there would be no results (only ready status) for cases above 850. The numbers run higher than that of course because at 3/2/2014 there were scheduled interviews up to the end of April - by that time the cutoff was (is) 1140. SO - you are looking at 5 months of interviews completed and 7 months of interviews scheduled.

I think that answers both your questions.....
Click to expand...
 
britsimon said:
I think a lot of people confuse themselves with this.

The CEAC data was taken on March 2. That means it could only possibly have included interviews completed during February. For February the cutoff for Feb was 850, so there would be no results (only ready status) for cases above 850. The numbers run higher than that of course because at 3/2/2014 there were scheduled interviews up to the end of April - by that time the cutoff was (is) 1140. SO - you are looking at 5 months of interviews completed and 7 months of interviews scheduled.

I think that answers both your questions.....
Click to expand...


The 1140 is not the cut off number, is the result of 5 months of interviews where they are giving 475 visas, so the average pace is 95 (475 / 5 = 95), and the total of that pace in the entire year is 1140 (95 * 12 = 1140), the number is just a coincidence, so no, it doesn't answer my question.
 
britsimon said:
I think a lot of people confuse themselves with this.

The CEAC data was taken on March 2. That means it could only possibly have included interviews completed during February. For February the cutoff for Feb was 850, so there would be no results (only ready status) for cases above 850. The numbers run higher than that of course because at 3/2/2014 there were scheduled interviews up to the end of April - by that time the cutoff was (is) 1140. SO - you are looking at 5 months of interviews completed and 7 months of interviews scheduled.

I think that answers both your questions.....
Click to expand...

Hey where did you guys find out that our annual cutoff this year was 1375 for SA I figured it was around there but just wondered. Here was my thing if we were at 850 and 475 visas were issued even then we have a density of approximately 0.56 visas per CN. If the remaining amount if visas is 900 for the remaining 7 months then technically we should stand at around 1607 more cns to be called. 1607+850=2457 take into account that there probably is going to be a drop off if people at the end who didn't want to take the risk of applying with a higher CN and as more holes develop my feeling is that the region would go current in either August or September as usual. Malcolm when you stated the region would go current you did mean all numbers would be called right? And not that the region would max out its allotment cause then that would see the number staying at 1550 and not stating 'current' I believe.
 
yes I mean all the numbers will be called.

al747 said:
Hey where did you guys find out that our annual cutoff this year was 1375 for SA I figured it was around there but just wondered. Here was my thing if we were at 850 and 475 visas were issued even then we have a density of approximately 0.56 visas per CN. If the remaining amount if visas is 900 for the remaining 7 months then technically we should stand at around 1607 more cns to be called. 1607+850=2457 take into account that there probably is going to be a drop off if people at the end who didn't want to take the risk of applying with a higher CN and as more holes develop my feeling is that the region would go current in either August or September as usual. Malcolm when you stated the region would go current you did mean all numbers would be called right? And not that the region would max out its allotment cause then that would see the number staying at 1550 and not stating 'current' I believe.
Click to expand...
 
audio said:
The 1140 is not the cut off number, is the result of 5 months of interviews where they are giving 475 visas, so the average pace is 95 (475 / 5 = 95), and the total of that pace in the entire year is 1140 (95 * 12 = 1140), the number is just a coincidence, so no, it doesn't answer my question.
Click to expand...

Well the 1140 IS the cutoff that applied for the period that is covered by the data. Trying to mathematically prove/disprove something based on the 475/95 wasn't worth my effort because that isn't a defined pace, and it isn't how things work. You will see an increase in later months which is the combination of the cases being moved through faster and older AP cases being resolved. So, as I say, don't base anything on the 95 per month assumption...
 
britsimon said:
Well the 1140 IS the cutoff that applied for the period that is covered by the data. Trying to mathematically prove/disprove something based on the 475/95 wasn't worth my effort because that isn't a defined pace, and it isn't how things work. You will see an increase in later months which is the combination of the cases being moved through faster and older AP cases being resolved. So, as I say, don't base anything on the 95 per month assumption...
Click to expand...

That's more like the answer of my question. Yeah, I know you were confused, it was just a coincidence.

Do you "feel" that SA will be current or it will stop in 1500 or something in between?
 
My husband is principle applicant 2014AS11XXX . We are in USA on F1 I would like to know what way is best for us AOS or CP. If he choosed to go for CP can he only go or we all 4 family members should go there? due to many reasons , If he decided to go alone with out family, will his visa GC denied in CP? at the same time can we 3 mem do AOS here? Also he had work off campus and filled tax , does that matter in CP processing?

Thank you.
 
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