Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

[MalcomX]

Thanks too much Simon, you are the number 1 , all your points are a valid points, I think that nobody will be able to predict the real numbers since there are a lot of variables, we just try to do our best to be closer from the reality, the correct numbers will be known not before the 30th of September, I've put some remarks (in bold)

OK Malcom,

First off, congrats and thanks for a significant effort and for sharing it with us all. I think in general your numbers are pretty accurate, although I think there are some potential flaws.

One thing that could catch you out is looking at CEAC data for response and ultimate success rates. As you know, CEAC data from 2013 was missing about 10% of data. According to CEAC only 45k visas were issued, whereas official figures showed 51k. Once you take out the aos it means it is missing around 4000 visas approved (and corresponding number of refusals/AP/Ready). So, if you take the official selectee counts and compare to CEAC for responses or success rate, you will be underestimating those numbers. The underestimation could vary by region. That is why I am suggesting you plug in the 2013 numbers to see if the formulas work. If they come out to 51k (49 without aos) then you have an accurate model. --> since the missed data concern in general one specific consulate or a complete week, I think that the rate between the: issued, refused, ready & AP will remain the same, that why I don't have problem to use that file,

Next is the assumption about quotas. Because no quotas (apart from Iran) were hit last year we don't really know what the max quotas were for any region. I'm STILL not convinced that a quota will cause a hard stop for a region, but if they do, 2013 didn't hit. There were (as far as we know) no selectees left over in any region, so one region might have ended at 99% of quota another might have ended at 90% of quota - we just don't know. --> you are right

Next, as Vladdy bought up earlier, it is very hard to be precise about case number cutoffs even if all the other factors were known and solid. We are sure that the three largest regions will have decreasing density of cases due to limited countries (I mean those limited during selection, not progression). We also know that some countries will hit country limits (not many, but Nepal for sure), and when they do that will knock out some number of cases --> valid point also, that's why I have taken into consideration Nepal case by removing 1000 selected from Asia,

That also reminds me to mention NACARA and the max number of visas. We can be fairly confident that we will see more than 50k visas issued, which means we are dipping into the NACARA reserve. How far they let that go however is another question. I know there are a very small number of NACARA cases left, but I think they may be cautious about using too many NACARA visas for DV. The NACARA allowance can flow year to year, so for a while the DV program was paying back a NACARA debt - which is now repaid, but they may not give DV all those visas back "just in case" they are needed for NACARA again... --> since we don't know the real number that they will allow: 51k, 53k or even 55k, I used the last one just to give a little more hope to the bigger CNs

Lastly, I just want to point out that processing constraints and the early cutoff will have an effect this year. In previous years there has been enough time to process everyone and many AP cases got approved in the last 30 days of the year. This year, I think we are likely to see the global cutoff hit some time in September, and because of that any in process AP cases will miss out. AF region will be particularly hit by that because of the percentage of AP cases. Furthermore, resources that would normally have been pushed toward closing AP cases will instead be kept busy with processing new clean cases up until the last minute, so regions with low AP cases will benefit. These two factors will see AF underperform and EU overperform. EU has low AP cases. Moscow embassy thinks all cases are in AP - even those that haven't been interviewed yet, but apart from that, EU has low AP compared to AF or AS --> you are right, I am going to sleep .

 

[MalcomX]

for Nepal it was 9500 ...

see below:
concerning Nepal since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/768 = 9500

Dear MalcomX,do you mean only upto 8500 case numbers are interviewed in case of Nepal?I read your post in detail and got this conclusion,am I right?please once again could you explain in Nepalese cases in brief.thank in advance!!

 

[MalcomX]

we have 6082 selectee from Nepal, so if your reasoning is correct: 6082-4200= 1882 Nepali will be blocked which is huge,
Specially for Nepal, I based my calculation not on DV2013 but on CEAC march 2014, see below the calculation that I did:

concerning Nepal since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/768 = 9500

The 3770 --> max country limitation
2014AS3694 is the max CN for DV2014
768 case in total from CEAC 2014
54% family rate from DV2014 CEAC data

using all those numbers I got the 9500, it can be calculated differently of course suing the density for each 100 CN, but at the end we will have same numbers,

concerning your calculation please see my comments

Nepal safe range should be up to 10,500. Malcom calculation is general and it based on DV13 statistic. After 6 months of DV progressing, I think we have enough DV14 data to make prediction for DV14.

4200 selectees are required to fulfill Nepal country limit. 4200 x 85% success rate = 3570 visa issued. 4200 selectees / 400 selectees per month = 10,500 CN --> assuming that you mean by 400 the number of application (or person) treated by month, by doing 4200/400 you are calculating the number of the months , so 10,5 is 10 months and half, it means that at the mid of august they might stop the DP interview in Nepal which is possible since that country will hit the max and . Of course with NACARA Nepal can push a bit higher but we don't know when the "Ready" status will change to "Issue" status, so 10,500 should be safe range with +500 or so to stress the Nepal limit --> 10,5 can't be assimilated to 10500 as I indicated above .

 

[Rayme]

mate being from Nepal and in this forum for long time... i am also in sperate forum of Nepali winners... so mark my word dear even i appreciate hard work but in this matter kayend is more correct then you... last year Nepal had 4300 winners and they had 3300 visa issue and the matter u discussing here the density even if u include all the AP and ready cases as the visa issue then also till now the density is 386 per thousand.. ya nepalese people many will not get the interview even though the high case interviewed for Nepal will be around 11k plus minus 500 range

we have 6082 selectee from Nepal, so if your reasoning is correct: 6082-4200= 1882 Nepali will be blocked which is huge,
Specially for Nepal, I based my calculation not on DV2013 but on CEAC march 2014, see below the calculation that I did:

concerning Nepal since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/768 = 9500

The 3770 --> max country limitation
2014AS3694 is the max CN for DV2014
768 case in total from CEAC 2014
54% family rate from DV2014 CEAC data

using all those numbers I got the 9500, it can be calculated differently of course suing the density for each 100 CN, but at the end we will have same numbers,

concerning your calculation please see my comments

 

[MalcomX]

...

 

[MalcomX]

please see my comments

Asia will not be current if the success rate is 49.2%. This should be the calculation for Asia.

1. Take out Nepal from the calculation because of the high success rate. So we will have 23270 (Asia selectees) - 6082 (Nepal Selectees) = 17188 (Asia selectees except Nepal).
2. DV13 regional quota is expected to be 9800 + 800 (estimated NACARA back to DV for Asia) - 400 (Adjustment for Guatemala as suggested by Reavsky) = 10200 (Asia Regional Quota) - 3700 (Nepal Country Limit) = 6,500 Asia quota exclude Nepal.
3. So 17188 compete with 6500 visa is 37.8% till now everything is fine
4. Based on Malcom Asia success rate is 49.2%, so 49.2% - 37.8% = 11.4% (I think this operation is not correct, why: because if we have more then 6500 you will have more then 37.8% and the 49.2%- 'the new value' might be 0 of 17188 = 1959 selectees might not have a chance for interview.

Asia will go current if the response rate is less than 37.8% of 17188 (less then 37.8%, like 25% for example, so 49.2%-25% = 24.2% of 17188 = 4159 even worst, just to prove you that it's contradictory) . So the response rate will decide whether Asia go current or not. As long as the CEAC data have less then 6500 visa issued (exclude Nepal) Asia is still possible to go current. After 3891 selectees interviewed in 5 months time, only 1011 visa issued and we still have 5489 visas to grab (of course AP or Ready might turn to Issue anytime).

 

[MalcomX]

it depend how the density is and if they decide to give more visas to SA, in this case your region will be current, it's easy to predict the number for your region, if they decide to continue as they are doing now, giving same amount of visa we will have:
if we check the CEAC 2014 data , we will see that the density for SA is 38 each 100 (last year it was 32), with 4620 selectees for SA, total success rate= 31.9% --> 1474 visa, the family rate is 41%, so 1474*0.41= 605CN in total for SA, (605/38)*100= 1590

so the max CN will be 1590 assuming that the density will remain the same, so if they continue treating same amount of application per month, for sure we will have SA current staring from next month VB (means in June) or July max.

So, as for the correction, you think this year SA won't be current and not only that but will fill the quota by june and stop giving visas? I say june because we are now in 1325 and for the last few months the pace have been around 150 - 200/month... so 15xx must be around june or july...
Last year at july SA became current... do you say this year will become exhausted? at the same number?

 

[MalcomX]

I'll use your numbers:
3800 (max country visas) * 1000 /400= 9500 as Nepali max CN --> the same one that I got in my first tread , just to prove you that we are in the same page for this part and also that my max Nepali CN is correct, it's because in your previous comment you said 10500 !!!!

I am referring to Nepal case only. For Nepal we have enough data to predict the outcome. We know every 1000 CN Nepal has 400 selectees, Nepal success rate is ~85% and it has selectees from 0 to 14k. So, that is good enough for prediction.

 

[Rayme]

OMG hey fren u assume there are 400 selectee in every thousand uniformly and assuming that all will get visa...

 

[MalcomX]

for me the max Nepali CN interviewed will not exceed 10k, let see hope that I am wrong .... it's a way of giving more selectees the chance to pass the interview

mate being from Nepal and in this forum for long time... i am also in sperate forum of Nepali winners... so mark my word dear even i appreciate hard work but in this matter kayend is more correct then you... last year Nepal had 4300 winners and they had 3300 visa issue and the matter u discussing here the density even if u include all the AP and ready cases as the visa issue then also till now the density is 386 per thousand.. ya nepalese people many will not get the interview even though the high case interviewed for Nepal will be around 11k plus minus 500 range

 

[Britsimon]

So all the experts in here accept that Asia will be current ?????

No - I am not ready to believe that yet! Sorry.

 

[Alair Tudor]

it depend how the density is and if they decide to give more visas to SA, in this case your region will be current, it's easy to predict the number for your region, if they decide to continue as they are doing now, giving same amount of visa we will have:
if we check the CEAC 2014 data , we will see that the density for SA is 38 each 100 (last year it was 32), with 4620 selectees for SA, total success rate= 31.9% --> 1474 visa, the family rate is 41%, so 1474*0.41= 605CN in total for SA, (605/38)*100= 1590

so the max CN will be 1590 assuming that the density will remain the same, so if they continue treating same amount of application per month, for sure we will have SA current staring from next month VB (means in June) or July max.

So this means that all the numbers will be called for South America and we will be going current in July or August latest? Is this the general consensus, Britsimon? Or is it that the maximum number they'll call is 1590 before maxing the visas available for the region? I just want to be sure, last time I asked no one really gave a straight answer. Don't want to seem as if I'm beating a dead topic.....

 

[Kayend]

we have 6082 selectee from Nepal, so if your reasoning is correct: 6082-4200= 1882 Nepali will be blocked which is huge,
Specially for Nepal, I based my calculation not on DV2013 but on CEAC march 2014, see below the calculation that I did:

concerning Nepal since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/768 = 9500

The 3770 --> max country limitation
2014AS3694 is the max CN for DV2014
768 case in total from CEAC 2014
54% family rate from DV2014 CEAC data

using all those numbers I got the 9500, it can be calculated differently of course suing the density for each 100 CN, but at the end we will have same numbers,

concerning your calculation please see my comments

Sorry, typo here. the 400 should be per 1000 CN and not month.

 

[Kayend]

please see my comments

I don't understand why it is contradicting. I just said with 6500 visas left after excluding Nepal, it only good for 37.8% of the selectees and you used 49.2% as success rate, so 37.8% is smaller than 49.2% therefore it will not be current.

 

[Kayend]

I'll use your numbers:
3800 (max country visas) * 1000 /400= 9500 as Nepali max CN --> the same one that I got in my first tread , just to prove you that we are in the same page for this part and also that my max Nepali CN is correct, it's because in your previous comment you said 10500 !!!!

Btw, your calculation for Asia you deduct Nepal # twice. First you put in a success rate to Asia as a region (49.2%). Nepal is in Asia, so it will have 6082 x 49.2% = ~2992. Then you deduct 860 or so and that will be ~2132. Your calculation for Asia is current because you only calculation Nepal up to 2132 which it already have this number of selectees interviews scheduled at the 7th month.

 

[Britsimon]

So this means that all the numbers will be called for South America and we will be going current in July or August latest? Is this the general consensus, Britsimon? Or is it that the maximum number they'll call is 1590 before maxing the visas available for the region? I just want to be sure, last time I asked no one really gave a straight answer. Don't want to seem as if I'm beating a dead topic.....

Actually Malcom os saying they will only see 1590 - not going current at all. I'm not convinced about that prediction - it seems too low... and I feel the same way about the OC prediction.

 

[Alair Tudor]

Thanks for your reply Britsimon, just trying to understand this process. So we are at somewhere around 15500 visas issued already globally excluding AOS right? So that leaves let's say 34500 give or take remaining. The current number is at 1350 or so for SA and Mr. Malcolm was stating that the distribution is like 30/100 so basically a little more than 60 numbers would be called for the remaining 4 months say 4 per CN that'll give 240 visas maybe being given for the remaining 4 months out of 34500. In a region with Venezuela and Cuba why does that seem really low to me?

 

[nerandima]

Can't they put a special cut off to Nepal & Iran before the reach the country limit ? It seems that there will not be a special cut off in June VB.. I believe last three months will decide everything.............

 

[vladek15425]

Can't they put a special cut off to Nepal & Iran before the reach the country limit ? It seems that there will not be a special cut off in June VB.. I believe last three months will decide everything.............

I extremelly doubt it ! I say they will just let the country limit do the job.

 

[Kayend]

I extremelly doubt it ! I say they will just let the country limit do the job.

Do you know how they do it? I am not sure how KCC will handle it. Iran already have 2.7k interviews scheduled in April and May should add another 500 so it should have 3.2k interviews scheduled. Since Iran has a lot of AP cases, will KCC keep schedule interviews for Iran after 3.5k? Or will it put into special cut off?