Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

[vladek15425]

Do you know how they do it? I am not sure how KCC will handle it. Iran already have 2.7k interviews scheduled in April and May should add another 500 so it should have 3.2k interviews scheduled. Since Iran has a lot of AP cases, will KCC keep schedule interviews for Iran after 3.5k? Or will it put into special cut off?

My idea is asia is not loaded like Af 62k or Eu 46k.
AS with 23k is easy to handle its a samll amount and with the secondholes if I can just say may be 25% (5700) we will be left with 17300 and with all the readys that won't show up the amount get smaller and smaller so no need for any special cutoff...
Special cutoffs exsit only in heavy loaded regions.

 

[MalcomX]

if I don't deduct Napal twice my calculation will be wrong, at the end I got 9500 as limitation for Nepal, in addition and using your '400' per 1000 number I got 9500 also (3800 * 1000)/400

Btw, your calculation for Asia you deduct Nepal # twice. First you put in a success rate to Asia as a region (49.2%). Nepal is in Asia, so it will have 6082 x 49.2% = ~2992. Then you deduct 860 or so and that will be ~2132. Your calculation for Asia is current because you only calculation Nepal up to 2132 which it already have this number of selectees interviews scheduled at the 7th month.

 

[Kayend]

if I don't deduct Napal twice my calculation will be wrong, at the end I got 9500 as limitation for Nepal, in addition and using your '400' per 1000 number I got 9500 also (3800 * 1000)/400

Well, you are assuming 100% success rate then. I use 4200 instead of 3800 because I assume the success rate is around 85%.

For double deduction for Nepal, I am referring to your Asia calculation. Is just a prediction anyway, it can still go either way. Let hope for the best for those who still waiting for a interview chance.

 

[MalcomX]

with the same density I am sure that after 300 CN we will be done with SA, but it's not really 60 or 90, because you are speaking about CN not all family member and you have also the latecomers, so we will see selectees attending the interview from 1 to the max SA CN even in September, the calculation is easy and really not complicated:

SA --> 4620 selectees, submited document rate is= 39.3% --> 1802 persons will be concerned by interview
the family rate is 41% so we will have 1802*0.41 = 739 CN (or case in total )

from the CEAC 03rd mars, we can see 437 case already treated (only 5 month), and the max CN is 2014SA1137
keeping the same density, the max CN for SA will be: (739*1137)/437= 1922 will be the max case number (assuming that the density will remain the same)

since we already have 1350 in May so for sure SA will be current in September

Thanks for your reply Britsimon, just trying to understand this process. So we are at somewhere around 15500 visas issued already globally excluding AOS right? So that leaves let's say 34500 give or take remaining. The current number is at 1350 or so for SA and Mr. Malcolm was stating that the distribution is like 30/100 so basically a little more than 60 numbers would be called for the remaining 4 months say 4 per CN that'll give 240 visas maybe being given for the remaining 4 months out of 34500. In a region with Venezuela and Cuba why does that seem really low to me?

 

[MalcomX]

I am doing the calculation from the total an you are doing your calculation from 3800 (the success cases)... are u from Nepal? what is your case number? thanks

Well, you are assuming 100% success rate then. I use 4200 instead of 3800 because I assume the success rate is around 85%.

For double deduction for Nepal, I am referring to your Asia calculation. Is just a prediction anyway, it can still go either way. Let hope for the best for those who still waiting for a interview chance.

 

[Kayend]

I am doing the calculation from the total an you are doing your calculation from 3800 (the success cases)... are u from Nepal? what is your case number? thanks

I think you didn't get my calculation. It is OK, it just prediction. Btw, I am not from Iran or Nepal and my # is AS13xxx.

 

[MalcomX]

sorry but of course I'll never get something not coherent , I already explained that before #66 anyway this is my point of view and I respect yours, for me Asia wil be current exept Nepal (Max CN 9500) and it's normal that not everybody will agree with me....

 

[dolopar]

Hey MalcomX , if everybody does not agree with you, you probably are wrong Just kidding Man..no offence, appreciate your work!

 

[nerandima]

If they are going to make a big jump in coming months, will there be a enough capacity in embassies (except Nepal & Iran ) to held all those interviews?

 

[dolopar]

I think once Iran and Nepal reaches the country limit..it is not impossible to cover all other asian countries, if country limit implies on july, which in context to Nepal is not gonna be that soon..But in my opinion...Big jump should start from coming months...I don't like to believe kcc will wait untill last hour when Nepal and Iran hits the country limit..remember last year too Iran had a similar number and they hit their country limit at the last week of september...well about Nepal, Am not sure how many of them have process for their second letter..Cos if we compare with the last year..Asia went current for 2 months and what I heard is, the last case number from Nepal to appear for the interview was around 10700 in the month of august(not sure about it, just read somewhere) and still the quota was not filled (3300 got the visa). This year is a mystery, and any predictions or discussion, please take it with a pinch of salt...No one knows

 

[Rayme]

i can bet with u malcom ur not single point and assumption will be correct... you are doing assumptions based uncontrolled variables.

 

[nerandima]

i can bet with u malcom ur not single point and assumption will be correct... you are doing assumptions based uncontrolled variables.

What is your predication my friend?

 

[MalcomX]

Hey MalcomX , if everybody does not agree with you, you probably are wrong Just kidding Man..no offence, appreciate your work!

 

[MalcomX]

so your 400 for each 1000 is uncontrolled variables ,it's your value, or may be 3800 as max limit country limit is uncontrolled variables lololololol it's not a variable and this value is defined by KFC value (KCC sorry )

As reminder I got 9500 twice and using two different methods, the second one using your 400/1000 value, so 9500= (3800 * 1000)/400 , It would be more accurate to say 'uncontrolled method'

i can bet with u malcom ur not single point and assumption will be correct... you are doing assumptions based uncontrolled variables.

 

[Britsimon]

so your 400 for each 1000 is uncontrolled variables ,it's your value, or may be 3800 as max limit country limit is uncontrolled variables lololololol it's not a variable and this value is defined by KFC value (KCC sorry )

As reminder I got 9500 twice and using two different methods, the second one using your 400/1000 value, so 9500= (3800 * 1000)/400 , It would be more accurate to say 'uncontrolled method'

If there are 400/1000 the 9500 is the earliest that the cutoff could be reached in reality some of those 3800 will not respond or be rejected so the number should be higher - probably 10.5k ish.

 

[MalcomX]

thanks simon and my apologies to Rayme, I found where the mistake is, I should divide by 629 the issued visa instead of 768 (number of cases), during my demonstration, I calculated that number but I forgot to use it:

"since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/768 = 9500
so the max Nepali CN will be 9500, all Asia will be current'

Please see the corrected sequence with the correct number:

since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/629= 11600
so the max Nepali CN will be 11600, all Asia will be current

The main post has been updated, thanks

If there are 400/1000 the 9500 is the earliest that the cutoff could be reached in reality some of those 3800 will not respond or be rejected so the number should be higher - probably 10.5k ish.

 

[Birahi_kancha]

Now, this new calculation makes more sense for Nepal. Thanks Malcom.

thanks simon and my apologies to Rayme, I found where the mistake is, I should divide by 629 the issued visa instead of 768 (number of cases), during my demonstration, I calculated that number but I forgot to use it:

"since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/768 = 9500
so the max Nepali CN will be 9500, all Asia will be current'

Please see the corrected sequence with the correct number:

since the max country is 3770, if we remove 3% of AOS we will have 3657 CP case,
from Mars CEAC, we can see that the max CN who got visa issued is 2014AS3694 for 768 cases done in total
and 629 issued visa , since family rate for Nepal is 54%, so with 3657 case , we will have 1975 CN max in total,
the max CN will be (3694*1975)/629= 11600
so the max Nepali CN will be 11600, all Asia will be current

The main post has been updated, thanks

 

[dolopar]

ya now it makes some sense MalcomX !

 

[nerandima]

Nepal 11600 is the Max CN to start the special cut off OR for country limit?

 

[Rayme]

Iam busy for some days ur calculations seems now good enough.... will come witb my view tommorow