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Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

I think Mijoro collected all the OC CNs she could find and reported that the highest CN she saw was OC 3200. I would have do dig around her old posts to find the data. :)


MalcomX said:
of course, I am assuming that OC will get same ration of visas comparing to last year, if they decided to increase the number of visas for OC this year (and I think they did) we will have more then 1611 as limit, but it will impact the other regions :(

can you confirm what is the biggest CN in OC region, because from some other calculation that I did, the max is around 1500/1600 it means that OC region will go current starting from July or in the worst case August.... please confirm
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Ok, we can be friends again;)

So the people that determine the cuts offs know how many CNs are in play between 1500 and 3200 and will determine a cut off that includes approx the same number of CNs that is found in the denser lower ranges? eg in the lower ranges we see a jump of 200 from OC 900 and 1100 (the jump between April and May) but as we get higher you need a bigger jump (maybe 500 or so) to get the same number of CNS as was caught in that prior 200 jump??

MalcomX said:
Thanks sloner... it means that the density from 1500 to 3200 is very low, so the VB progression will be very fast, as reminder last years the max CN for this region was 1700 ....
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IheartNY said:
Ok, we can be friends again;)

So the people that determine the cuts offs know how many CNs are in play between 1500 and 3200 and will determine a cut off that includes approx the same number of CNs that is found in the denser lower ranges? eg in the lower ranges we see a jump of 200 from OC 900 and 1100 (the jump between April and May) but as we get higher you need a bigger jump (maybe 500 or so) to get the same number of CNS caugh in that prior 200 jump??
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Okay peeps ;)
I wanna add somhing and i think i will keep on doing for the next 3 mnths lol
The majority of the selectees responded in the first 2 or 3 months after the 1st of may 2013!
So when it was time to do the cutoffs in october they new exactly how many responded (at KFC)
And KFC knows what is the ''CAPACITY'' of the embassies lest say they process 10000cases per month!
Then its gonna be the same rythm or pace for the whole ( i dont believe they operate faster at the end anymore)
Year.....so if we see jumps big jumps MEGA jumps its because the case are maxing out thats all folks ....
 
So now for OC when we saw a jump of 200 it means that case are getting lesser and it will surely see bigger jumps in OC.
Thats one region we can can already say its gonna go current.
Ps: simon was the first one to predict that !
Beside sloner of course ;)
 
In AS we saw the pace kept the same rythm so obviously we can deduce that the dencity is still the same at this stage.
Guys the second-holes effect is a determinant factor in DV program.
Some will come back sure! But afer 10 months there wont be a major comeback.
So if we assume the capacity is the same for 12 months , and up to the 7 months only 40k got processed what does it tell you !?

Raevsky please say something ? Even if you desagree? I really want to hear your opinion?
 
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OK Malcom,

First off, congrats and thanks for a significant effort and for sharing it with us all. I think in general your numbers are pretty accurate, although I think there are some potential flaws.

One thing that could catch you out is looking at CEAC data for response and ultimate success rates. As you know, CEAC data from 2013 was missing about 10% of data. According to CEAC only 45k visas were issued, whereas official figures showed 51k. Once you take out the aos it means it is missing around 4000 visas approved (and corresponding number of refusals/AP/Ready). So, if you take the official selectee counts and compare to CEAC for responses or success rate, you will be underestimating those numbers. The underestimation could vary by region. That is why I am suggesting you plug in the 2013 numbers to see if the formulas work. If they come out to 51k (49 without aos) then you have an accurate model.

Next is the assumption about quotas. Because no quotas (apart from Iran) were hit last year we don't really know what the max quotas were for any region. I'm STILL not convinced that a quota will cause a hard stop for a region, but if they do, 2013 didn't hit. There were (as far as we know) no selectees left over in any region, so one region might have ended at 99% of quota another might have ended at 90% of quota - we just don't know.

Next, as Vladdy bought up earlier, it is very hard to be precise about case number cutoffs even if all the other factors were known and solid. We are sure that the three largest regions will have decreasing density of cases due to limited countries (I mean those limited during selection, not progression). We also know that some countries will hit country limits (not many, but Nepal for sure), and when they do that will knock out some number of cases.

That also reminds me to mention NACARA and the max number of visas. We can be fairly confident that we will see more than 50k visas issued, which means we are dipping into the NACARA reserve. How far they let that go however is another question. I know there are a very small number of NACARA cases left, but I think they may be cautious about using too many NACARA visas for DV. The NACARA allowance can flow year to year, so for a while the DV program was paying back a NACARA debt - which is now repaid, but they may not give DV all those visas back "just in case" they are needed for NACARA again...

Lastly, I just want to point out that processing constraints and the early cutoff will have an effect this year. In previous years there has been enough time to process everyone and many AP cases got approved in the last 30 days of the year. This year, I think we are likely to see the global cutoff hit some time in September, and because of that any in process AP cases will miss out. AF region will be particularly hit by that because of the percentage of AP cases. Furthermore, resources that would normally have been pushed toward closing AP cases will instead be kept busy with processing new clean cases up until the last minute, so regions with low AP cases will benefit. These two factors will see AF underperform and EU overperform. EU has low AP cases. Moscow embassy thinks all cases are in AP - even those that haven't been interviewed yet, but apart from that, EU has low AP compared to AF or AS.
 
:)

vladek15425 said:
Okay peeps ;)
I wanna add somhing and i think i will keep on doing for the next 3 mnths lol
The majority of the selectees responded in the first 2 or 3 months after the 1st of may 2013!
So when it was time to do the cutoffs in october they new exactly how many responded (at KFC)
And KFC knows what is the ''CAPACITY'' of the embassies lest say they process 10000cases per month!
Then its gonna be the same rythm or pace for the whole ( i dont believe they operate faster at the end anymore)
Year.....so if we see jumps big jumps MEGA jumps its because the case are maxing out thats all folks ....
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So the general consensus now is that OC will go current?

Hope so, with a CN slightly over 2800 I'm getting worried.
 
MalcomX said:
Thanks Simon....I look forward to your reply... just keep in mind that I assumed that they will provide the max visas, it means 55k, removing the NACARA+AOS so we will have 53200 visas for CP process, everything is based on that number...
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Dear MalcomX,do you mean only upto 8500 case numbers are interviewed in case of Nepal?I read your post in detail and got this conclusion,am I right?please once again could you explain in Nepalese cases in brief.thank in advance!!
 
oskarson said:
Dear MalcomX,do you mean only upto 8500 case numbers are interviewed in case of Nepal?I read your post in detail and got this conclusion,am I right?please once again could you explain in Nepalese cases in brief.thank in advance!!
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Nepal safe range should be up to 10,500. Malcom calculation is general and it based on DV13 statistic. After 6 months of DV progressing, I think we have enough DV14 data to make prediction for DV14.

4200 selectees are required to fulfill Nepal country limit. 4200 x 85% success rate = 3570 visa issued. 4200 selectees / 400 selectees per month = 10,500 CN. Of course with NACARA Nepal can push a bit higher but we don't know when the "Ready" status will change to "Issue" status, so 10,500 should be safe range with +500 or so to stress the Nepal limit.
 
Nerandima said:
So all the experts in here accept that Asia will be current ????? :eek:
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Asia will not be current if the success rate is 49.2%. This should be the calculation for Asia.

1. Take out Nepal from the calculation because of the high success rate. So we will have 23270 (Asia selectees) - 6082 (Nepal Selectees) = 17188 (Asia selectees except Nepal).
2. DV13 regional quota is expected to be 9800 + 800 (estimated NACARA back to DV for Asia) - 400 (Adjustment for Guatemala as suggested by Reavsky) = 10200 (Asia Regional Quota) - 3700 (Nepal Country Limit) = 6,500 Asia quota exclude Nepal.
3. So 17188 compete with 6500 visa is 37.8%
4. Based on Malcom Asia success rate is 49.2%, so 49.2% - 37.8% = 11.4% of 17188 = 1959 selectees might not have a chance for interview.

Asia will go current if the response rate is less than 37.8% of 17188. So the response rate will decide whether Asia go current or not. As long as the CEAC data have less then 6500 visa issued (exclude Nepal) Asia is still possible to go current. After 3891 selectees interviewed in 5 months time, only 1011 visa issued and we still have 5489 visas to grab (of course AP or Ready might turn to Issue anytime).
 
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MalcomX said:
there is a big mistake for OC and SA and I just realized that, when I said total CN scheduled for an interview = 509 to have the ones who did the interview we need to do 509*0.79 and not 509/0.79 :) .... the we will have 467 CN , 467/29 *100 = 1611 will be the max CN for OC, I'll correct the main threat even for SA
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So, as for the correction, you think this year SA won't be current and not only that but will fill the quota by june and stop giving visas? I say june because we are now in 1325 and for the last few months the pace have been around 150 - 200/month... so 15xx must be around june or july...
Last year at july SA became current... do you say this year will become exhausted? at the same number?
 
kayend said:
Nepal safe range should be up to 10,500. Malcom calculation is general and it based on DV13 statistic. After 6 months of DV progressing, I think we have enough DV14 data to make prediction for DV14.

4200 selectees are required to fulfill Nepal country limit. 4200 x 85% success rate = 3570 visa issued. 4200 selectees / 400 selectees per month = 10,500 CN. Of course with NACARA Nepal can push a bit higher but we don't know when the "Ready" status will change to "Issue" status, so 10,500 should be safe range with +500 or so to stress the Nepal limit.
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I desagree ! 6 months of 2014 is not enough to make a good prediction! We don't know yet how many drop-outs (non sent forms). Tobe able to estimate ! Some will say its promissing some might say not!
I think its still better to use 2013 data to guess-estimate...
But I agree on nepal country limit 7% of the total of visas alowed per country it can be 3500 or up to 3800.
Because as we know even if the whole 6000 nepalees will get an interview there will only 3500~3800 visas for nepal.
 
vladek15425 said:
I desagree ! 6 months of 2014 is not enough to make a good prediction! We don't know yet how many drop-outs (non sent forms). Tobe able to estimate ! Some will say its promissing some might say not!
I think its still better to use 2013 data to guess-estimate...
But I agree on nepal country limit 7% of the total of visas alowed per country it can be 3500 or up to 3800.
Because as we know even if the whole 6000 nepalees will get an interview there will only 3500~3800 visas for nepal.
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I am referring to Nepal case only. For Nepal we have enough data to predict the outcome. We know every 1000 CN Nepal has 400 selectees, Nepal success rate is ~85% and it has selectees from 0 to 14k. So, that is good enough for prediction.
 
kayend said:
I am referring to Nepal case only. For Nepal we have enough data to predict the outcome. We know every 1000 CN Nepal has 400 selectees, Nepal success rate is ~85% and it has selectees from 0 to 14k. So, that is good enough for prediction.
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One more point, Nepal is easier to predict because it has very consistent distribution of selectees from 0 to 5000 (so far) and pretty consistent success rate of ~85%.

Iran is much more difficult because it has a lot of AP cases and in DV13 almost all AP cases (AP before country limit get hit) turn into Issue in the very last month.
 
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