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Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

hi dear,

I'm facing a problem. i was selected me and my wife and two children. my wife agreed in the beginning to go with me and immigrate (the whole family to the states). now after i got the second notification letter, she is telling me i will never go to the states and will never go with you to the interview. i tried to understand from her why and she said for no reason. a week ago she left home and went to her family and started asking for divorce. her family took her stance and support her. what will happen and what can i do. there is no solution and no way that i can convince her. what shall i do. can i go to the interview with my two kids they are 5.5 and 3.5 years old. pls. advise me what to do i spent one year and a half on this thing and i don't want to lose it.
best regards,
 
to answer to your question, let's take it easy, since the none response rate is different from a region to another one, we can't apply the world rate to the 140k directly, let's do it one by one:
AF-61942 with 65.5% as response rate we will have 40572 persons
EU-46589 with 56.4% as response rate we will have 26276 persons
AS-23270 with 62.2% as response rate we will have14474 persons
OC-4215 with 36.3% as response rate we will have 1530 persons
SA-4620 with 39.3% as response rate we will have 1816 persons

The sum will give 84668, so around 85k will be concerned by interviews, 12% from the 85% will not attend and remain ready (85k*0.88= 75k), you can also remove 1000 from Nepal since that country will hit the max soon, so only 74k will attend the interview at least in theory , because not all regions will be current.


vladek15425 said:
Well said :)
Now malcom just wanna add somthing, since we are not able to know how many didnt respond with forms yet (second_holes)!
Im looking for away to trace it or to caculate it,but i havent find any solution just may be a guessing estimate,obviously there will be some turn-backs so it will make it even harder to guess!
But for now this is my thinking i believe by now that the capacity of the embassies is actualy the same for the whole process
When before i thought its speed up like 3 times at the last two months because of big cutoffs, whiles its just because there is hardly cases at the end and the 95% had been already inteviewed.
So for 7 months process 40k are shceduled, what is the real amount of selectess out of 140k do you think has been gone through??
Click to expand...
 
Guys last night i check the data from CEAC and i saw that every case that is not showing issued from Moscow is at the moment showing AP. It may be some political issue???
If they cut-off Russia I think there will be no limit for Ukraine.
Is there someone from Russia, that can tell if the embassy in MOS is issuing DV visas?
You have done a great job calculating, but i still think that some regions will go current. You estimate that they will cut off regions evenly. I don't think that will happen.
Click to expand...
this is a mistake Moscow consulate.
The sum will give 84668, so around 85k will be concerned by interviews, 12% from the 85% will not attend and remain ready (85k*0.88= 75k), you can also remove 1000 from Nepal since that country will hit the max soon, so only 74k will attend the interview at least in theory , because not all regions will be current.
Click to expand...
then everyone will get an interview ;) The official report on the 2011 forms were sent by - 75000.
 
suleimanmaher said:
hi dear,

I'm facing a problem. i was selected me and my wife and two children. my wife agreed in the beginning to go with me and immigrate (the whole family to the states). now after i got the second notification letter, she is telling me i will never go to the states and will never go with you to the interview. i tried to understand from her why and she said for no reason. a week ago she left home and went to her family and started asking for divorce. her family took her stance and support her. what will happen and what can i do. there is no solution and no way that i can convince her. what shall i do. can i go to the interview with my two kids they are 5.5 and 3.5 years old. pls. advise me what to do i spent one year and a half on this thing and i don't want to lose it.
best regards,
Click to expand...

If she doesn't attend the interview you will probably be denied your visa. Also if you wanted to take the kids you would need sole custody or permission from the mother to take the kids to the USA to live - which is doubtful.

Basically your wife is pulling the strings and if I were you I would think about what you want to do about being a husband and father (single or married), and that is a more important thing to focus on right now...
 
MalcomX said:
to answer to your question, let's take it easy, since the none response rate is different from a region to another one, we can't apply the world rate to the 140k directly, let's do it one by one:
AF-61942 with 65.5% as response rate we will have 40572 persons
EU-46589 with 56.4% as response rate we will have 26276 persons
AS-23270 with 62.2% as response rate we will have14474 persons
OC-4215 with 36.3% as response rate we will have 1530 persons
SA-4620 with 39.3% as response rate we will have 1816 persons

The sum will give 84668, so around 85k will be concerned by interviews, 12% from the 85% will not attend and remain ready (85k*0.88= 75k), you can also remove 1000 from Nepal since that country will hit the max soon, so only 74k will attend the interview at least in theory , because not all regions will be current.
Click to expand...

Malcom, I've copied your main post and will read it tonight. Have a think about how your numbers and theory would have applied to 2013 - we have all the data you need to check your calculations against that year where we know 51k visas were issued (consider 49k without aos).
 
dear britsimon,
thank you for your answer.
let's say i give her her demand which is divorce right now. can i go by myself to the interview of course without her and the kids and taking with me the divorce certificate.
regards,
 
dear britsimon,
thank you for your answer.
let's say i give her her demand which is divorce right now. can i go by myself to the interview of course without her and the kids and taking with me the divorce certificate.
regards,
Click to expand...
agree with her ​​that she should go to the interview. After the interview, she can not go. So it will be less of a problem.
 
MalcomX said:
do you think that we have a normal density till 54000... wawww, in this case the max CN will be 54k-4k = 50k as max CN good new :)
Click to expand...

Sure, Malcom, I have the statistics from our Bulgarian and the Russian forums. The density is one and the same from 0 to 20000, then till 55000 the density is lower but one and the same. Even for 45000-50000 is much higher.
 
Thanks Simon....I look forward to your reply... just keep in mind that I assumed that they will provide the max visas, it means 55k, removing the NACARA+AOS so we will have 53200 visas for CP process, everything is based on that number...

britsimon said:
Malcom, I've copied your main post and will read it tonight. Have a think about how your numbers and theory would have applied to 2013 - we have all the data you need to check your calculations against that year where we know 51k visas were issued (consider 49k without aos).
Click to expand...
 
MalcomX said:
to answer to your question, let's take it easy, since the none response rate is different from a region to another one, we can't apply the world rate to the 140k directly, let's do it one by one:
AF-61942 with 65.5% as response rate we will have 40572 persons
EU-46589 with 56.4% as response rate we will have 26276 persons
AS-23270 with 62.2% as response rate we will have14474 persons
OC-4215 with 36.3% as response rate we will have 1530 persons
SA-4620 with 39.3% as response rate we will have 1816 persons

The sum will give 84668, so around 85k will be concerned by interviews, 12% from the 85% will not attend and remain ready (85k*0.88= 75k), you can also remove 1000 from Nepal since that country will hit the max soon, so only 74k will attend the interview at least in theory , because not all regions will be current.
Click to expand...

I think out of all the calculations this one sound most realistic to me!
 
let's play with the number, we have 46589 selected for EU, we know that the submitted forms rate for EU was 56.4% in 2013, since we will have same rate this year so the we will have 46589*0.564= 26276 persons, the family rate for EU is 0.465, so we will have 26276*0.465= 12218 CN

removing the AOS process we will have 12218*0.97= 11852 CN scheduled for EU CP interview.

Since we have two special counties, so I'll need to calculate their respective number to be able to remove that number from the total :
(1431*6009)/6412= 1342 CN for Ukraine CP interview
(1337*5014)/5101= 1315 CN for Uzbekistan CP interview

so 11852-1342-1325= 10510 CN for non-special countries for CP interview/Zone Europe

if you check the density of the none SC last year you will have:

between 0 1000 we have: 174 CN
between 1000 2000 we have: 145 CN
between 2000 3000 we have: 150 CN
between 3000 4000 we have: 140 CN
between 4000 5000 we have: 153 CN
between 5000 6000 we have: 164 CN
between 6000 7000 we have: 140 CN
between 7000 8000 we have: 169 CN
between 8000 9000 we have: 160 CN
between 9000 10000 we have: 242 CN
between 10000 11000 we have: 226 CN
between 11000 12000 we have: 250 CN
between 12000 13000 we have: 236 CN
between 13000 14000 we have: 204 CN
between 14000 15000 we have: 239 CN
between 15000 16000 we have: 239 CN
between 16000 17000 we have: 229 CN
between 17000 18000 we have: 245 CN
between 18000 19000 we have: 215 CN
between 19000 20000 we have: 220 CN

So the average is 197 CN (DV-2013)

This year (DV-2014) we have almost same concentration, see below:
between 0 1000 we have: 190 CN
between 1000 2000 we have: 187 CN
between 2000 3000 we have: 193 CN
between 3000 4000 we have: 193 CN
between 4000 5000 we have: 201 CN
between 5000 6000 we have: 204 CN
between 6000 7000 we have: 204 CN
between 7000 8000 we have: 201 CN
between 8000 9000 we have: 176 CN
between 9000 10000 we have: 217 CN
between 10000 11000 we have: 177 CN
between 11000 12000 we have: 187 CN
between 12000 13000 we have: 204 CN
between 13000 14000 we have: 189 CN
between 14000 15000 we have: 200 CN
between 15000 16000 we have: 195 CN
between 16000 17000 we have: 204 CN
between 17000 18000 we have: 210 CN
between 18000 19000 we have: 193 CN
between 19000 20000 we have: 178 CN

the average is 195CN, I am sure that he will 197CN on the 30th of september 2014,

Since we know that the distribution will be the same as last year and we have already calculated the number of CN for non-special countries for CP interview/Zone Europe which is 10510CN, so let continue our calculation:

so (10510/197) * 1000 = 53350

so the max European CN will be 53350 (uniform distribution), of course the real CN is a bit higher because the density is not high at the end, so we will be able to use this number to calculate the EU max CN:

53350 - 3940 (calculated in the beginning of the tread for europe) = 49410 will be the max European CN :)



denitsa_zz said:
Sure, Malcom, I have the statistics from our Bulgarian and the Russian forums. The density is one and the same from 0 to 20000, then till 55000 the density is lower but one and the same. Even for 45000-50000 is much higher.
Click to expand...
 
MalcomX said:
let's play with the number, we have 46589 selected for EU, we know that the submitted forms rate for EU was 56.4% in 2013, since we will have same rate this year so the we will have 46589*0.564= 26276 persons, the family rate for EU is 0.465, so we will have 26276*0.465= 12218 CN

removing the AOS process we will have 12218*0.97= 11852 CN scheduled for EU CP interview.

Since we have two special counties, so I'll need to calculate their respective number to be able to remove that number from the total :
(1431*6009)/6412= 1342 CN for Ukraine CP interview
(1337*5014)/5101= 1315 CN for Uzbekistan CP interview

so 11852-1342-1325= 10510 CN for non-special countries for CP interview/Zone Europe

if you check the density of the none SC last year you will have:

between 0 1000 we have: 174 CN
between 1000 2000 we have: 145 CN
between 2000 3000 we have: 150 CN
between 3000 4000 we have: 140 CN
between 4000 5000 we have: 153 CN
between 5000 6000 we have: 164 CN
between 6000 7000 we have: 140 CN
between 7000 8000 we have: 169 CN
between 8000 9000 we have: 160 CN
between 9000 10000 we have: 242 CN
between 10000 11000 we have: 226 CN
between 11000 12000 we have: 250 CN
between 12000 13000 we have: 236 CN
between 13000 14000 we have: 204 CN
between 14000 15000 we have: 239 CN
between 15000 16000 we have: 239 CN
between 16000 17000 we have: 229 CN
between 17000 18000 we have: 245 CN
between 18000 19000 we have: 215 CN
between 19000 20000 we have: 220 CN

So the average is 197 CN (DV-2013)

This year (DV-2014) we have almost same concentration, see below:
between 0 1000 we have: 190 CN
between 1000 2000 we have: 187 CN
between 2000 3000 we have: 193 CN
between 3000 4000 we have: 193 CN
between 4000 5000 we have: 201 CN
between 5000 6000 we have: 204 CN
between 6000 7000 we have: 204 CN
between 7000 8000 we have: 201 CN
between 8000 9000 we have: 176 CN
between 9000 10000 we have: 217 CN
between 10000 11000 we have: 177 CN
between 11000 12000 we have: 187 CN
between 12000 13000 we have: 204 CN
between 13000 14000 we have: 189 CN
between 14000 15000 we have: 200 CN
between 15000 16000 we have: 195 CN
between 16000 17000 we have: 204 CN
between 17000 18000 we have: 210 CN
between 18000 19000 we have: 193 CN
between 19000 20000 we have: 178 CN

the average is 195CN, I am sure that he will 197CN on the 30th of september 2014,

Since we know that the distribution will be the same as last year and we have already calculated the number of CN for non-special countries for CP interview/Zone Europe which is 10510CN, so let continue our calculation:

so (10510/197) * 1000 = 53350

so the max European CN will be 53350 (uniform distribution), of course the real CN is a bit higher because the density is not high at the end, so we will be able to use this number to calculate the EU max CN:

53350 - 3940 (calculated in the beginning of the tread for europe) = 49410 will be the max European CN :)
Click to expand...

Ha, ha, that sounds perfect for me, Malcom, my case number is 493**.
 
MalcomX you are the man. You just woke up the fenix in me :) my EU case number is around 44***. Thanks a million...
 
Thanks so much for all that analysis! Impressive! (actually all of you analysts impress me- Malcolmx, Sloner, Vladdy, Britsimon et al- thank you!)

So your reasoning leads you to think that the max CN to be interviewed for OC will be 2576. May cut off sits at OC1100 and if you think the September VB cut off will be say OC2580 (to round the number) care to predict what the cut offs will be for June, July, Aug ?? :D


[
Oceania (easy region to predict since we don't have any special countries):
(1072* 53200)/55438 = 1029 max visas, the family rate is 57%, so 1029*0.57= 590CN
the success rate is 79%, so the total CN scheduled for interview is 590/0.79= 747 CN got an interview
since the distribution is around 29 per 100, so (747/29) * 100 = 2576 will be the max CN for SA, if the real max CN for this region is less then 2576, it means that this region will be current.[/QUOTE]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
there is a big mistake for OC and SA and I just realized that, when I said total CN scheduled for an interview = 509 to have the ones who did the interview we need to do 509*0.79 and not 509/0.79 :) .... the we will have 467 CN , 467/29 *100 = 1611 will be the max CN for OC, I'll correct the main threat even for SA

IheartNY said:
Thanks so much for all that analysis! Impressive! (actually all of you analysts impress me- Malcolmx, Sloaner, Vladdy, Britsimon et al- thank you!)

So your reasoning leads you to think that the max CN to be interviewed for OC will be 2576. May cut off sits at OC1100 and if you think the September VB cut off will be say OC2580 (to round the number) care to predict what the cut offs will be for June, July, Aug ?? :D


[
Oceania (easy region to predict since we don't have any special countries):
(1072* 53200)/55438 = 1029 max visas, the family rate is 57%, so 1029*0.57= 590CN
the success rate is 79%, so the total CN scheduled for interview is 590/0.79= 747 CN got an interview
since the distribution is around 29 per 100, so (747/29) * 100 = 2576 will be the max CN for SA, if the real max CN for this region is less then 2576, it means that this region will be current.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
Oh my..1611???.....sorry we cant be friends anymore lol. Im going to play at Sloner's house. ;)

MalcomX said:
there is a big mistake for OC and SA and I just realized that, when I said total CN scheduled for an interview = 509 to have the ones who did the interview we need to do 509*0.79 and not 509/0.79 :) .... the we will have 467 CN , 467/29 *100 = 1611 will be the max CN for OC, I'll correct the main threat even for SA
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hang on though- DV2013 OC cut off for August was 1600 and OC went current in Sept. This year in OC we have double selectees and no country in OC will hit country limit. You really think that the ultimate cut off will be lower than DV2013?

MalcomX said:
there is a big mistake for OC and SA and I just realized that, when I said total CN scheduled for an interview = 509 to have the ones who did the interview we need to do 509*0.79 and not 509/0.79 :) .... the we will have 467 CN , 467/29 *100 = 1611 will be the max CN for OC, I'll correct the main threat even for SA
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
of course, I am assuming that OC will get same ration of visas comparing to last year, if they decided to increase the number of visas for OC this year (and I think they did) we will have more then 1611 as limit, but it will impact the other regions :(

can you confirm what is the biggest CN in OC region, because from some other calculation that I did, the max is around 1500/1600 it means that OC region will go current starting from July or in the worst case August.... please confirm

IheartNY said:
Thanks so much for all that analysis! Impressive! (actually all of you analysts impress me- Malcolmx, Sloaner, Vladdy, Britsimon et al- thank you!)

So your reasoning leads you to think that the max CN to be interviewed for OC will be 2576. May cut off sits at OC1100 and if you think the September VB cut off will be say OC2580 (to round the number) care to predict what the cut offs will be for June, July, Aug ?? :D


[
Oceania (easy region to predict since we don't have any special countries):
(1072* 53200)/55438 = 1029 max visas, the family rate is 57%, so 1029*0.57= 590CN
the success rate is 79%, so the total CN scheduled for interview is 590/0.79= 747 CN got an interview
since the distribution is around 29 per 100, so (747/29) * 100 = 2576 will be the max CN for SA, if the real max CN for this region is less then 2576, it means that this region will be current.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
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