June VISA Bulletin

*The following is not based out of scientic studies*

OK, I am going to just predict every month from June to Sept Visa Bulletin so that we can move on to other threads! :D

This is my PD prediction for now up to Sept 06 VB:

World: 1 May 01
China: 1 May 01
India: 1 May 01
Mexico: 1 May 01
Philippines: 1 May 01

OK, everybody let's move on!
 
unitednations said:
California labors filed in regular permanent are just starting to get approved which were filed in April 2001 timeframe. Many people who filed labors in california in June/july 2001 are still awaiting in the backlog reduction center.
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I have one such labor on my name but I moved on. I wonder what happens to that Labor. Probably it will be substitued to someone else.
 
1.I have couple of questions. My PD is oct 2003 EB3. When do you think my PD will become current.
2. My wife is going to complete her masters in information systems this summer. can she re apply for GC through job under eb2. She is now beneficiary through me and I-140 cleared.
3. Do you guys know of any bills which talk about only legal immigration.
 
1. Most optimistic estimate is 1.5-2 years. Meaning... expect nothing before then. Nothing guranteed even after that. This assumes no changes in any laws.
2. Of course.
3. Have you been living under a rock? There are plenty of bills. Nobody knows if any will become law in a useful form.

kalimmigration said:
1.I have couple of questions. My PD is oct 2003 EB3. When do you think my PD will become current.
2. My wife is going to complete her masters in information systems this summer. can she re apply for GC through job under eb2. She is now beneficiary through me and I-140 cleared.
3. Do you guys know of any bills which talk about only legal immigration.
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United nations

United Nations

While I understand the overflow from EB world is very important, I think the overflow from Family is equally if not more important.

In fY 2005, USCIS approved 242,335 EB based LPRs even though the annual limit is 140,000. That means over 100,000 FB based visa numbers overflowed to EB. That, you realise, is a HUGE number, compared in overflows within the EB cases.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
how long to wait for PD moves to current or 12/2005

Hi UnitedNations,

You said: "I have written in the past how eb2 would move much faster then eb3 because rest of the world was current in eb2 and india could use the "spillover visas' from other countries but that wasn't going to happen in eb3. This prediction turned out to be 100% correct."

The current date is 01/2003 for India EB2 and 01/2004 for China EB2. So, could you please shed any lights on how long it will take to become Current or become 12/2005? What is the difference between China's EB2 and India's EB2?

I wish I do not ask you a stupid question.

Thanks.
 
petervisa2006 said:
Hi UnitedNations,
The current date is 01/2003 for India EB2 and 01/2004 for China EB2. So, could you please shed any lights on how long it will take to become Current or become 12/2005? What is the difference between China's EB2 and India's EB2?
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Hi Peter,

This is my guess (for India) and it is not a calculation (like the experts do).

Optimistic: EB2 India will be current in November 2006 (at the current rate)
Pessimistic: EB2 India will slow down due to large number of cases during 2003-2005
Realistic: I dono!

I guess UnitedNations/Saras76 are the experts here and they can share their thoughts about this.
 
no result, anyway, thanks

Hi UnitedNations and balu_g,

Thank you very much. I still feel very empty though EB2 brings more lights than EB3...
 
balu_g said:
Hi Peter,

This is my guess (for India) and it is not a calculation (like the experts do).

Optimistic: EB2 India will be current in November 2006 (at the current rate)
Pessimistic: EB2 India will slow down due to large number of cases during 2003-2005
Realistic: I dono!

I guess UnitedNations/Saras76 are the experts here and they can share their thoughts about this.
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May we assume there were not a lot of EB2 cases between 2003 to 2005? Two reasons: 2003, 2004, job market was not perfect like today's one. A lot of desi consulting firms begin to hire a quite large number of new employees starting from 06/2005? (e.g. I know one company hires over 250 consultants now from 25 employee in 06/2005.) Think about once 100 consultants in a company in 2000, then may shrink into 5 consultants left in 2004 :).

For the year of 2005, we have over 80000 PERM cases which means PERM just in the starting stage in 2005.
 
unitednations said:
Why torture yourselves in making predictions.

There is too many unknowns regarding pending cases, how many are going to get approved, etc. However, do not think on the bright side that the amount which are pending is on the low side.

If you follow enough on the web-sites you will be able to piece through enough numbers. That is;how many 485's were transferred back to vermont service centers which local offices said were transferred inappropriately. There were thousands of these cases. How many I-140's are sitting at consulates for consular processing. How many labors have been approved that are not in the system. The labors that are getting approved; how many of them are RIR or regular permanent. For regular permanent those labors are just starting to get approved in the last few months that were filed back in 2001. How many people are going to use priority date transferability. How many people have married since they filed the 485?

One thing that is for sure is that if you are trying to estimate; do not estimate on the low side. Always assume law doesn't change to increase visas. Worse case scenario will be for many years (10+).

drive me into the dark end, my boss :).
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something I do not understand

United Nations

What happens to unused FB visas?

I know USCIS does not fully utilize FB based visas (even though they are retrogressed), as was the case in FY 2005, where it processed less than 250K FB visas as against a possible 850K.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Please answer gcstrat's question

unitednations said:
Sorry to deflate everyone. To make rational decisions, one has to have the data to make those decisions. If you are putting off life decisions awaiting for the greencard in the next few months; then I would make those decisions without regard to the greencard.

I always tell people that greencard is a waiting game. You may mentally feel better; economic circumstance may be a little better and you may be mentally free once you get the greencard. However, the MOST IMPORTANT thing is that you protect your status. If something should go wrong with the status then that is fatal. As long as you can continue in status then you should make career decisions, etc. without regard to the greencard and how long it may take.
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UnitedNations can you please throw some light on gcstrats's question ?
 
here my numbers

Well, I think I added the immediate family members numbers as well.

This is what I was thinking when I quoted tthe 850K number.

2004: Total LPRs issued about 1,000K (actual is about 946K)
EB issued about 155K

Therefore balance = FB based = 850K

However, the actual data for 2004 is 620K (and not 850K) total for FB based of which 406K is for immediately family.

I agree with United Nations, FB preference is only 226K.
In 2004, USCIS issued only 214K, they therefore underutilized it by 12K in 2004.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
UnitedNations,

How do you know this? Does USCIS website have a .pdf file somewhere with the statistics on the 245i applicants?

unitednations said:
many of the 245i labor are for the "REST OF THE WORLD". england, south american countries, africa, south korea, etc. There won't be much movement whatsoever.

if i were you i would file perm in eb2 get labor approved and then use cross chargeability with your wife. from beginning to end, you will have greencard in 6 to 8 months from now.
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uf02002,

ufo2002 said:
UnitedNations,

How do you know this? Does USCIS website have a .pdf file somewhere with the statistics on the 245i applicants?
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Please do not take everything you read here as the law of the land. People have been following immigration trends and have gained knowledge through several channels and their own experiences. When I, unitednations or other members with a bit more experience post replies to questions or threads dealing with the "future progress of retrogression" we are by no means stating "ALL" facts. Most of our answers are based on a mixture of a few facts that we have learnt and information we have picked up over the years. Most of it is based on reasoning more than knowing. Unlike me unitednations seems to have a lot more hands on experience dealing with 140 cases etc so he may have a little more insight into this than us.

I am by no means saying that what we say is incorrect but there is absolutely no one on this forum that can accurately predict the future progression of PDs.

I would agree with unitednations in that its fruitless to predict this mess. The smarter thing is to keep an eye on things and follow the bulletins each month. Its good to stay informed but I have found that predictions lead to either a surge of positive feeligs or outright disgust because most predictions are either way to positive or totally negative. Its better to stay on level ground and take it as it comes. Do what you have to in order to improve your personal life while you are waiting for the GC. Do what you have to in order to progress in your career. As limited as our options may seem, there is a lot of possibility for growth.

regards,

saras76
 
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an observation

Wow... We have been humbled by the USCIS in playing the whole predictions game that no one is tryig to predict it anymore.

Still, I would like to ask this question...

"How many of you believe EB3 India would cross 1st April 2001 in the coming bulletin(June)?"
 
Next Bulletins

My guess is next two bulletins for EB3 India will be Apr 2001 and Apr 15/22 2001. 4 more Visa bulletins left for FY 2006. We are yet to see the "flood". Till now it seems to be a trickle.

-Thanks
 
One curious question about 245(i) applicants. When most of these applications are still in backlog centers (i.e. the labor certs are not approved) why does department of state wait at April 2001 instead of processing cases like us with later priority dates coz, they would have to retrogress the dates back to April 2001 anyways after the labor certs are approved for these 245 (i) cases that are pending. What is the logic behind waiting while the labors are not approved and waiting after the labors are approved and letting them file 485 and then wait until theis 485s are approved. I am missing something very fundamental here. How does Department of state predict how many labors are gonna be available in given month and what will happen if we indefinitely wait for these and eventually the fiscal year is done? Will they recapture the lost visa numbers because of waiting for the labors and say only 20 % of them were actually used?
 
HBG2001 said:
My guess is next two bulletins for EB3 India will be Apr 2001 and Apr 15/22 2001. 4 more Visa bulletins left for FY 2006. We are yet to see the "flood". Till now it seems to be a trickle.

-Thanks
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Might not Flood ... in next few ...

But there might be another major retrogression after Nov ....

Lets demand for 5 year valid EAD ... or 6 more years of H1b for those who are unable to do EAD ...

That looks more doable than all other demands ......
 
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