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January VB numbers released!!!

Here it is :
AF70091 issued on August 27th in Casablanca, 1 family member - CEAC data. That most likely proves this is a real case and I was wrong.

Raevsky posted this on algerian winners forum.
 
vladek15425 said:
Here it is :
AF70091 issued on August 27th in Casablanca, 1 family member - CEAC data. That most likely proves this is a real case and I was wrong.

Raevsky posted this on algerian winners forum.
Click to expand...

AF numbers above 45xxx are not rare at all. The story with rare numbers is about AS numbers.
 
raevsky said:
AF numbers above 45xxx are not rare at all. The story with rare numbers is about AS numbers.
Click to expand...

No, I know that af got up to 116xxx. For dv 14, just thought to bring that post of yours
Because simon mention something about , or perhaps it was the wrong one ?!
 
Simon said:

You could call them to discuss it, but best to confirm it first. There was a case in DV2013 where Raevsky had found a highest number (I think in AF region) that was massively higher than the other numbers he had found. He described it as some some of mistake in the selection process. Perhaps that is what has happened here?

I thought may be he was reffering to this post of yours :

AF70091 issued on August 27th in Casablanca, 1 family member - CEAC data. That most likely proves this is a real case and I was
wrong.
Last edited by raevsky; 31st August 2013 at 11:04 AM.

Any way can u elaborate on this post and tell us why were u wrong ?

Thanks
 
Last edited by a moderator:
vladek15425 said:
Simon said:

You could call them to discuss it, but best to confirm it first. There was a case in DV2013 where Raevsky had found a highest number (I think in AF region) that was massively higher than the other numbers he had found. He described it as some some of mistake in the selection process. Perhaps that is what has happened here?

I thought may be he was reffering to this post of yours :

AF70091 issued on August 27th in Casablanca, 1 family member - CEAC data. That most likely proves this is a real case and I was
wrong.
Last edited by raevsky; 31st August 2013 at 11:04 AM.

Any way can u elaborate on this post and tell us why were u wrong ?

Thanks
Click to expand...

I missed that post of Simon. That is about 2012EU4518x number. I think it was result of a double notification, possibly a new notification accidentally sent during the process of notifying winners second time. When a lot of winners received notifications to check their status, this one did receive it as well. Possibly this number was not notified the first time, only the second time
 
raevsky said:
I missed that post of Simon. That is about 2012EU4518x number. I think it was result of a double notification, possibly a new notification accidentally sent during the process of notifying winners second time. When a lot of winners received notifications to check their status, this one did receive it as well. Possibly this number was not notified the first time, only the second time
Click to expand...
But simon was talking about an af case number perhaps simon will pop in here and help us, to clear up this matter :)
 
raevsky said:
I missed that post of Simon. That is about 2012EU4518x number. I think it was result of a double notification, possibly a new notification accidentally sent during the process of notifying winners second time. When a lot of winners received notifications to check their status, this one did receive it as well. Possibly this number was not notified the first time, only the second time
Click to expand...

vladek15425 said:
But simon was talking about an af case number perhaps simon will pop in here and help us, to clear up this matter :)
Click to expand...

Sorry Vladek, it wasn't an AF case - it was probably this one. In DV2013 the CEAC data for AF goes up to 97k - so I don't think it was something way higher than that....
 
ya ravesky its very true that that case exist and she is a nepali citizen and she is playing from nepal so she is a nepali and got case number 22k which is a case of nepali i am very sure about this..
raevsky said:
If she is your friend, you could clarify her situation regarding those 3 categories
Click to expand...
 
ravesky its not like this forum that we have different unknown peoples same people also make different id ... in facebook we can distinguish some fake id like by seeing profile i asssume they are not of same person as even with some we started having phone conversation after entering in group and been now good friend of many so i donot see some fake people make 12 different id to tell that and its rule to tell case numbers range after they enter the group... so please beleive me its 13 different people cases and not like as u tell 12 same people its not like that beleive me iam too excited about DV in nepal and its movemnet so i did publish this here beleive me iam not fake nad my data are real
raevsky said:
I made a plot from those 99 numbers differently:

90 1
400 1
1718 1
1900 1
2000 1
2100 2
2900 1
3000 2
3200 1
3300 1
3600 1
3800 3
3900 1
4500 1
4700 1
4800 1
5000 2
5100 1
5200 2
6000 2
6100 1
6500 1
7000 3
7100 1
7500 1
7832 1
8000 5
8300 1
8400 1
8700 2
9000 3
9100 2
9600 1
9700 2
9800 2
10000 3
10200 2
11000 8
12000 9
12100 1
12200 2
12400 1
12500 1
12600 1
12700 2
13000 12
13190 1
15000 2


99 total

That is not a uniform distrubution. But if we assume that 12 instances of 13000 is just the same winner listed by 12 people (that is an important high number, that is why 12 people listed that as the number of someone they know, or just of one person), and if iwe leave the following plot:

90 1
400 1
1718 1
1900 1
2000 1
2100 1
2900 1
3000 1
3200 1
3300 1
3600 1
3800 1
3900 1
4500 1
4700 1
4800 1
5000 1
5100 1
5200 1
6000 1
6100 1
6500 1
7000 1
7100 1
7500 1
7832 1
8000 1
8300 1
8400 1
8700 1
9000 1
9100 1
9600 1
9700 1
9800 1
10000 1
10200 1
11000 1
12000 1
12100 1
12200 1
12400 1
12500 1
12600 1
12700 1
13000 1
13190 1
15000 1

51 total

We see that that is an evenly distributed random variable (between 1 and 15000).

At the same time just one instance of 25000 fits into randomly distributed random variable between 15000 and 27000, with amount of values 1% to 3% of total (total is 52)
That is what I was trying to say before.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Rayme said:
ya ravesky its very true that that case exist and she is a nepali citizen and she is playing from nepal so she is a nepali and got case number 22k which is a case of nepali i am very sure about this..
Click to expand...

It would be very much interesting to figure out what exactly the main difference was in the way she filled her initial entry and other nepali natives filled their ones, if the difference exists at all.
 
Rayme said:
ravesky its not like this forum that we have different unknown peoples same people also make different id ... in facebook we can distinguish some fake id like by seeing profile i asssume they are not of same person as even with some we started having phone conversation after entering in group and been now good friend of many so i donot see some fake people make 12 different id to tell that and its rule to tell case numbers range after they enter the group... so please beleive me its 13 different people cases and not like as u tell 12 same people its not like that beleive me iam too excited about DV in nepal and its movemnet so i did publish this here beleive me iam not fake nad my data are real
Click to expand...
Everything you are saying might be very true in some sense, and at this point I do not realize what exactly the wrong part is. However, I would still beleive more that the real CDF has two liear intervals, than believe that the numbers you get from the forum represent true CDF function. Trying to find the exact point of failure could be a difficult task on it's own. Without being a member of the group and not being a nepalese winner myself I would not be able to investigate anyway - the rules of the group are strict.
 
raevsky said:
Everything you are saying might be very true in some sense, and at this point I do not realize what exactly the wrong part is. However, I would still beleive more that the real CDF has two liear intervals, than believe that the numbers you get from the forum represent true CDF function. Trying to find the exact point of failure could be a difficult task on it's own. Without being a member of the group and not being a nepalese winner myself I would not be able to investigate anyway - the rules of the group are strict.
Click to expand...
I will warmly welcome you u are heartly welcome just let me know what is ur name that u will use to join it will easy for me to give u entry....
 
Are you going to introduce me as who? As a scientist who is going to do some investigation? Or as who?
 
Raevsky ;
According to your own data, what's the highest case number for af, that had an interview in dv13?
I spotted this no 2013AF00105628
Kenyan winner !
Is that possible ?
Thanks
 
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