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January VB numbers released!!!

raevsky said:
Based on DV-13 trusted data I still assume the distribution for DV-14 for Nepal is combination of 2 uniform distributions - from 1 to certain limit (one uniform distribution, 97%-99% of cases) and from that limit to 27000 (another uniform distribution; 1%-3% of cases).
Based on untrusted forum data for DV-14 I estimate that limit (where we have a break of CDF function) to about ~15K (German Tank Problem).
If we do not care why forum data is untrusted, even though it is supposed to model the real distribution, that is enough. If we want to know why it is not trusted, I provided one of (probably, several) possible explanations how real data could be transformed by people without any intent to falsify it, and become untrusted.
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Make it three and I'm on board :) 0 ~ 8K, 8K ~ 15K (IMO 13K), and 15K+
 
mehrannn said:
i am from Iran yes , and living her , i am married and i have 3 child , thnks
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Mehrannn, Not to be rude, but I think there is some confusion somewhere. Asian numbers haven't gone higher than 45000 that we know of. So I am thinking that your number must be either 4500 (i.e. less than 5000) OR you have an AF region number. Could you check and confirm
 
britsimon said:
Mehrannn, Not to be rude, but I think there is some confusion somewhere. Asian numbers haven't gone higher than 45000 that we know of. So I am thinking that your number must be either 4500 (i.e. less than 5000) OR you have an AF region number. Could you check and confirm
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sorry i am sure , AS45000 , and i am from Iran , whats the problem i am not understand
 
mehrannn said:
sorry i am sure , AS45000 , and i am from Iran , whats the problem i am not understand
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Sorry Mehrannn - I mistyped earlier. The AS numbers so far are only up to 27,000. There are 23,000 AS region selectees - so 27,000 makes sense, 45,000 does not. How many zeros before the 4?
 
britsimon said:
Sorry Mehrannn - I mistyped earlier. The AS numbers so far are only up to 27,000. There are 23,000 AS region selectees - so 27,000 makes sense, 45,000 does not. How many zeros before the 4?
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there is 3 zero's can you please help because i am feel there is a big problems from your words its fear me so much , shale i send mail to kcc for more explanation , or how come that happen i am really dont know what to do is there some mistake in my case or forms ... please help
 
mehrannn said:
there is 3 zero's can you please help because i am feel there is a big problems from your words its fear me so much , shale i send mail to kcc for more explanation , or how come that happen i am really dont know what to do is there some mistake in my case or forms ... please help
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mehrannn,

The zeros are before the 45 or after? Why don't you give us the full number starting with 2014AS... only for the two right digits put xx.
 
mehrannn,

Have you sent your form to KCC? Did they send you the confirmation that your forms were accepted?
 
c1984 said:
mehrannn,

Have you sent your form to KCC? Did they send you the confirmation that your forms were accepted?
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yes they send to me a letter contain the case number , shal i send it again to them for confirmation please help
 
mehrannn said:
yes they send to me a letter contain the case number , shal i send it again to them for confirmation please help
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You could call them to discuss it, but best to confirm it first. There was a case in DV2013 where Raevsky had found a highest number (I think in AF region) that was massively higher than the other numbers he had found. He described it as some some of mistake in the selection process. Perhaps that is what has happened here?
 
mehrannn said:
yes they send to me a letter contain the case number , shal i send it again to them for confirmation please help
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The point is that we had only seen AS numbers as high as 25000 or close to that. All of a sudden you come and say your number is 45000. That is a very unusual number especially for Iran.

If it was last year, you would have your interview in September. But this year, the numbers are moving more slowly. So there is a chance you may not get an interview.

Good luck refigh.
 
raevsky said:
No, there are two only. Sloner effect completely eliminates the first break.
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Raevsky, I haven't posted your explanation of the Sloner effect I was waiting for Sloner to confirm something but he is AWOL.

Here is is:-

I checked with Raevsky about the incomplete CEAC data. The data seems to cut off too early and there are some missing numbers in the first few months. So this is what Raevsky replied (and he gave me permission to post it here).

"Yes, I know Sloner noticed the differences between CEAC data for Warsaw consulate and Warsaw consulate schedule. I think what happened the first months they had a pilot program entering the data into CEAC. Each month starting October more and more data was entered and in January it was no longer pilot, just routine. BTW, several CEAC provided numbers are missing in Warsaw schedule as well, so data is missing both ways

When I analyzed data previously, I noticed breaks in CDF function and wrote about them on the forum. Not only upper breaks, that correspond to additional selection, but also lower breaks, that correspond to this pilot project (I call it Sloner effect). I had no idea what those lower breaks meant until Sloner's discovery, I though of them as of unexplained ones. Then I suddenly realized that is the same thing as lower breaks, and lower breaks were clearly visible on CDF function. So, that gave me a good way to "fix" the inconsistency and calculate the number of visas missing in CEAC data.

I was able to interpolate the data to see how much data was not entered before January by looking at those breaks in CDF function. I think ~1752 visas are missing in AF data in CEAC, ~1056 in AS data in CEAC, ~1889 in EU data in CEAC, ~82 in OC data, ~109 in SA data, overall about 4888. That makes the number of visas issued about 50155, with data entered into CEAC and missing, combined. Plus about 1500 AOS adjustments, total 51655."
 
britsimon said:
Mehrannn, Not to be rude, but I think there is some confusion somewhere. Asian numbers haven't gone higher than 45000 that we know of. So I am thinking that your number must be either 4500 (i.e. less than 5000) OR you have an AF region number. Could you check and confirm
Click to expand...

The way I am dealing with this type of numbers is simple. They are so rare that they are statistically insignificant. In other words, it does not matter if they exist or not - it does not change anything statistically - distribution is sill exactly the same, probability of this number is close to zero.
We know several hundreds AS number, and this is the only one like that so far.
 
raevsky said:
The way I am dealing with this type of numbers is simple. They are so rare that they are statistically insignificant. In other words, it does not matter if they exist or not - it does not change anything statistically - distribution is sill exactly the same.
We know several hundred AS number, and this is the only one like that so far.
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I'm not questioning the statistical analysis Raevsky and I agree in that analysis this case number is "statistically insignificant" but to Mehrannn, it is very significant.
 
britsimon said:
Raevsky, I haven't posted your explanation of the Sloner effect I was waiting for Sloner to confirm something but he is AWOL.

Here is is:-

I checked with Raevsky about the incomplete CEAC data. The data seems to cut off too early and there are some missing numbers in the first few months. So this is what Raevsky replied (and he gave me permission to post it here).

"Yes, I know Sloner noticed the differences between CEAC data for Warsaw consulate and Warsaw consulate schedule. I think what happened the first months they had a pilot program entering the data into CEAC. Each month starting October more and more data was entered and in January it was no longer pilot, just routine. BTW, several CEAC provided numbers are missing in Warsaw schedule as well, so data is missing both ways

When I analyzed data previously, I noticed breaks in CDF function and wrote about them on the forum. Not only upper breaks, that correspond to additional selection, but also lower breaks, that correspond to this pilot project (I call it Sloner effect). I had no idea what those lower breaks meant until Sloner's discovery, I though of them as of unexplained ones. Then I suddenly realized that is the same thing as lower breaks, and lower breaks were clearly visible on CDF function. So, that gave me a good way to "fix" the inconsistency and calculate the number of visas missing in CEAC data.

I was able to interpolate the data to see how much data was not entered before January by looking at those breaks in CDF function. I think ~1752 visas are missing in AF data in CEAC, ~1056 in AS data in CEAC, ~1889 in EU data in CEAC, ~82 in OC data, ~109 in SA data, overall about 4888. That makes the number of visas issued about 50155, with data entered into CEAC and missing, combined. Plus about 1500 AOS adjustments, total 51655."
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Yeap, that is exactly the thing I wanted to do myself, to post it here. I would do it myself if you did not do it.
 
britsimon said:
I'm not questioning the statistical analysis Raevsky and I agree in that analysis this case number is "statistically insignificant" but to Mehrannn, it is very significant.
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Yes, I agree. However, for the purposes of calculating max passing numbers it does not matter.
 
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