Jan bulletin is out

[saras76]

Family ..

Its so disappointing to see the same dates 22 APRIL 2001 every month.Looks like DOS have forgotton about us totally. F1 hasnt moved from the last one and half yrs. Any clues why it isnt moving? and when will it pass April 2001?

greencardfever,

I am not to familiar with the family category but I remember reading somewhere that a lot of Mexico 245is applied through the family category and not the employment category. This is probably why the dates are stuck in April.

saras

 

[dcmetro22042]

I am happy to see some movement in EB3..and I hope for more (and greater than 2 weeks at a time) in months to follow.

 

[greencardfever1]

India Family 1st isnt moving a day since last one and half year

Saras..I dont understand how come mexico is coming into the picture when there PR date is 1JAN94 which means mexicans cant even apply till there PR date becomes close to 2001.According to me there are tons of 245-i indians and H1b holders with big families which are consuming the major chunk and blocking the line. Introducing 245-i was such a bad move, they underestimated the number of ppl who would be applying in this category. I am not against 245-i but would have prefered phased and fixed number of visas in this category every yr rather than millions of apps at the same time. Now with guest worker program coming up next yr, future seems to be doomed big time.

 

[baby_mde]

Baby Mde.

How you dare to ask a question like this? Mexico has not overflowed the USCIS system with millions of H1Bs that later became GC applicants like India.

In fact the question should be. Why Mexico is not with the rest of the world?

Unless there are many 245i applications still pending from Illegal Aliens there is not reason whatsoever for Mexico to be lagging like this.

I485 applicants from Mexico are an extreme minority and its numbers are extremely small in comparison with the millions of I485 from India. Do not be surprised if in the future Mexico joins with ROW and India still lags for another 3 years.

You mean more illeagal are from India than from Mexico??

I do not believe this.

May be USCUS is palying games??

 

[c0de]

F2A moving slow

F2A has moved forward 15 days, along with the retrogression that has happened, that's a 15 day progression from April 2006's VB. :'( i hope it picks up rapidly for the next month at least ! i'm only 21 days away !
(i had my hopes up for this month looks like i have to wait some more)

 

[gc_retrogress]

Maybe not all applied or their applications were rejected at some point.

Just a guess...who knows...EB-3 India is atleast moving ahead...

You mean more illeagal are from India than from Mexico??

I do not believe this.

May be USCUS is palying games??

 

[ufo2002]

Congratulations Indians, your procrastinating finally paid off: EB3 India in May. Now the other groups have no movement forward.

Anybody got a clue why Schedule A category now has a PD when last month they were in "Unavailable"? Didn't it sunset? So why now it's available again?

EDIT: Nevermind, I forgot to read Section D on the reason for Schedule A.

 

[mdh3000]

saras,

You just have confirmed what I said that nothing is mentioned about EB3 Skilled Workers. It means either there is no demand for EB3 or demand for EB3 is very low with the current cut off dates.

They have available visas in EB3 but they want to save them.
The question is for whom, either for the rest of BEC traditional cases or may be they have strategy to save them for Congress and further to give them to nurses.

EB3 RoW didn't move at all? Why?

NN

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

EMPLOYMENT: Demand for numbers in the Employment Third “Other Workers” category, as well as the China and India Employment Second preference categories, has been escalating. No movement in those cut-off dates will be possible until the current level of demand subsides.


Based on that I can understand that Demand for numbers in the Employment Third “SKILLED WORKERS” category of ROW , as well as the China and India is significantly low, however they do not want to consider to move cut off dates for them.

I don't think it means that demand for eb3 is low, otherwise it would have moved forward further. Philly backlog elimination center has recently cleared many 2002 eb2 labors in the last few months. Because of the pending eb2 cases from dallas BEC and also because of the new cases from Philly BEC, the demand for eb2 has been escalating. Where as for eb3, there may not be new cases with current PDs that escalate the demand.

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

Guys and Gals,

Although India Eb3 has finally crossed the April hurdle, it is most likely that the dates will stay in May for the next few bulletins. India EB3 seems to be following the progress pattern of Mexico EB3 dates although the pattern is a few months behind that of Mexico. The DOS is probably using the same metric/logic/guesswork for Mexico and India.

Anyway, lets atleast be a little happy to see May 01 in front of India EB3. If nothing else, its better than April 01

cheers,

saras

why do you think eb3 dates will be stuck in May for few months ?

 

[sfmars]

It is really low

I don't think it means that demand for eb3 is low, otherwise it would have moved forward further. Philly backlog elimination center has recently cleared many 2002 eb2 labors in the last few months. Because of the pending eb2 cases from dallas BEC and also because of the new cases from Philly BEC, the demand for eb2 has been escalating. Where as for eb3, there may not be new cases with current PDs that escalate the demand.

When you see visa bulletin where EB3 ROW has the same cut off date as China and Philippines means that demand for that visa category is VERY LOW.

It never never can be when in the conditions of severe retrogression China has the same cut off date as ROW in the same category.

It is nonsense.

 

[rat_race]

To me this is still a mystery. I was analyzing the Visa Bulletin of Last Fiscal Year. I was not able to figure out the reason why EB2 Visa numbers became unavailable in August for EB2 India. But it never became unavailable for EB3 till September Bulletin. Ideally it should have become unavailable at some point of time.

Any Opinion?

 

[saras76]

Why stuck in May ...

why do you think eb3 dates will be stuck in May for few months ?

indian_gc_ocean,

Obviously no one can say for sure but my thought is that India EB3 has crossed the all important April 22nd to April 30th barrier for the very first time. If it is true (again a big IF) that there are thousands of India EB3s (mostly 245is) between April 22nd and April 31st that are waiting for visa numbers, then India EB3 dates may get stuck there for a while. Again, there is no way to gauge exactly how many India EB3 (245i) are in the system at this very moment. There is also a possibility that India EB3 will start moving ahead in the next few bulletins if it turns out that there aren't as many 245is in the system. It has been my personal opinion (and I have been criticized for it a lot) that the PDs for India EB3s have not been based on pure numbers. A lot of guesstimation and historical demand numbers have gone into it. Based on this I believe that DOS is going to be extremely conservative with India EB3 dates irrespective of the actual demand. We will just have to wait and see I guess.

cheers,

saras

 

[pendingaos]

Can anyone tell how much time does it approximately take at TSC to look at or make a decision on a case once the PD is current?

 

[guldukan]

In the game of visa bull-tien, USCIS is undisputed champion beating everyones imagination.

so now that India EB3 crossed April 30th,2001 mark,

what happens to all those 245i guys, if there PDs are current now and if USCIS gives GCs to all of them, will then EB3 India will be unavilable for rest of the year?

 

[gc_retrogress]

Maybe there are not many in the pipeline, could be that they are still pending in BEC.

In the game of visa bull-tien, USCIS is undisputed champion beating everyones imagination.

so now that India EB3 crossed April 30th,2001 mark,

what happens to all those 245i guys, if there PDs are current now and if USCIS gives GCs to all of them, will then EB3 India will be unavilable for rest of the year?

 

[nati309]

Any opinion why no movememnt for EB3 RoW?

 

[saras76]

Eb3 Row

Any opinion why no movememnt for EB3 RoW?

nati309,

EB3 ROW has been moving for the past few bulletins and the demand for visas has probably increased over the past few months. This is the most logical reason.

regards,

saras

 

[saras76]

Million dollar question ..

Maybe there are not many in the pipeline, could be that they are still pending in BEC.

Guys and Gals,

The million dollar question is the true status of 245is. There are all sorts of theories out there. A lot of 245is have already been approved (remember 245is were around for a few years prior to April 31st 2001), a lot of them are still stuck in BECs and supposedly a lot of them are waiting for visa numbers. No agency can give us any estimation of the total number of 245is pending in the BECs and those that are in the pipeline for visas. Lets not even get into the actual nationality breakup of the 245is. There is no way to predict anything till the BECs complete their backlog reduction efforts. This was supposed to have been completed by the end of '07. I have read reports that the BECs are way behind schedule.

One thing is for sure, the dates for India EB3 would not have moved beyond April 22nd if there were thousands of cases waiting for visas prior to that date. Now what remains to be seen is the number of applications waiting for visas between April 23rd and May 8th. I truly believe that once India crosses the May hurdle, the dates will move quite quickly until the time the BECs start approving labors. This again will take time. Just because the BECs approve labors does not mean that the application will get into the visa backlog line. the 140 has to be approved, 485 has to be filed. All this takes atleast 3 months if not more. Just because the BECs approve labors in mass does not mean that all those applications will shut down the system.

cheers,

saras

 

[sfmars]

Any opinion why no movememnt for EB3 RoW?

They want to save EB3 visas for future implementation.

One of the areas of implementation is nurses. I do not remember when during the same FY any category was unavailable then next month became available.

Another area of implementation is traditional cases with old PD which are still pending in the BECs.