From the Horses Mouth: No Movement in EB-2, EB-3 India for FY 2007

berkeleybee

Registered Users (C)
All,

As I just posted in the Outlook FY 2007 thread I had the chance to talk to a State dept official who is involved in setting cutoff dates.

Amongst other things this official told me that there will be no movement in EB-2, EB-3 India cutoff dates for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at the very least through Sept 2007).

For an explanation of why, read UnitedNations posts about numbers in the Outlook FY 2007 thread linked above. He has got it exactly right (though I confess that I haven't read every single post in that thread).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far.]
 
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Since you spoke to the person who is doing this date setup, Can I assume he also would know all categories future like when EB3 or EB2 would move and how much? If he can tell us the date, it would help us stop guessing and make use the time elsewhere :D

Thanks for the update anyways!
 
He may have meant no Forward movement but there could be backward movement.

Being sadistic is not good but simple math is difficult to ignore.

techy2468 said:
does he really mean.....absolutely no movement.............or neglible movement??
 
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No forward movement, he said they were making an effort for EB-2 India to have no backward movement. No guarantees against backward movement for both EB-3 India and EB-3 ROW (in April).


The bottom line is that without legislation to increase EB numbers this state of affairs will continue.

BTW, if you think that recaptured numbers from previous years (approx 90K from earlier yrs, plus some 10K from FY 2006) should go to the EB categories that lost them and not for example, Schedule A people, then call the lawmakers on the immigration subcommittees and let them know how unjust it would be that Schedule A applicants should benefit from USCIS inefficiency, while the rest of us patiently wait in line.
 
What about EB3 ROW ?

Is there any way you can get info on expected movement of EB3 ROW?
Thanks
 
be seeing you guys...

... in Sep 2007!

berkeleybee said:
All,

As I just posted in the Outlook FY 2007 thread I had the chance to talk to a State dept official who is involved in setting cutoff dates.

Amongst other things this official told me that there will be no movement in EB-2, EB-3 India cutoff dates for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at the very least through Sept 2007).

For an explanation of why, read UnitedNations posts about numbers in the Outlook FY 2007 thread linked above. He has got it exactly right (though I confess that I haven't read every single post in that thread).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far.]
 
This is good news. Saves everybody's time.... Let's target Sep 2008/presidential elections for some resolution.

berkeleybee said:
All,

As I just posted in the Outlook FY 2007 thread I had the chance to talk to a State dept official who is involved in setting cutoff dates.

Amongst other things this official told me that there will be no movement in EB-2, EB-3 India cutoff dates for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at the very least through Sept 2007).

For an explanation of why, read UnitedNations posts about numbers in the Outlook FY 2007 thread linked above. He has got it exactly right (though I confess that I haven't read every single post in that thread).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far.]
 
berkeleybee said:
No forward movement, he said they were making an effort for EB-2 India to have no backward movement. No guarantees against backward movement for both EB-3 India and EB-3 ROW (in April).

...
What efforts can they make for Eb2 India to have no backward movement?! They either have the visa numbers for they don't. They don't have controls on either LC approvals or visa numbers availability.

I'm not buying this theory.
 
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kid4life said:
Is there any way you can get info on expected movement of EB3 ROW?
Thanks

He said it was possible that there would be some backward movement of EB-3 ROW in April, when DOL finished up the remaining labor certs, 245is etc. Unused EB-1 ROW and EB-2 ROW are being funnelled to EB-3 ROW, but demand is HUGE. To get some sense of the magnitude of the problem I gave him a hypothetical -- if all the unused visas from FY 2006 (10K) were given to EB-3 ROW would it be current? He laughed. Not at all apparently.
 
gravitation said:
What efforts can the make for Eb2 India to have no backward movement?! They either have the visa numbers for they don't. They don't have controls on either LC approvals or visa numbers availability.

I'm not buying this theory.

Effort as in - every quarter they make a judgement call based on USCIS visa usage. Visa usage can go up and down due to inefficiency, slow name checks etc. So unfortunately even the guy who is setting visa cutoff dates does not know the exact number of visas that will be processed in a given period of time. So if you have some applications stuck due to name checks , and in that month or quarter, CIS doesn't use up visas, and they can decide to move the cutoff date along in hope that some applications will get through all stages including name check. Sometimes a huge pile of applications suddenly clears name check and you have a larger pile of ready to go applications, and again based on a judgement call you move the date back. What he means is that the current date was set with the idea that they would not have to move it back in FY 2007.

From his own description it is far from an exact science. If it was, there would not be any unused visas in any year.


If it was legal, I would just paste a recording of my conversation. The guy was not making anything up, and this is not the first time I have talked to him.
 
Really True?

I thought the Cut off dates will be determined based on monthly demand and the rate of labor approvals. If the above is true then how can DOL person can say like this.

By the way there are lots of labor approvals which was filed around Aug 2004. Six of my friends applied labor (EB3) around Aug 2004 got approvals recently.

-GCLover007
 
berkeleybee said:
Effort as in - every quarter they make a judgement call based on USCIS visa usage. Visa usage can go up and down due to inefficiency, slow name checks etc. So unfortunately even the guy who is setting visa cutoff dates does not know the exact number of visas that will be processed in a given period of time. So if you have some applications stuck due to name checks , and in that month or quarter, CIS doesn't use up visas, and they can decide to move the cutoff date along in hope that some applications will get through all stages including name check. Sometimes a huge pile of applications suddenly clears name check and you have a larger pile of ready to go applications, and again based on a judgement call you move the date back. What he means is that the current date was set with the idea that they would not have to move it back in FY 2007.

From his own description it is far from an exact science. If it was, there would not be any unused visas in any year.


If it was legal, I would just paste a recording of my conversation. The guy was not making anything up, and this is not the first time I have talked to him.
Thanks BerkeleyBee for the Update.
Did u get a chance to ask if they r going to publish the 2006 fiscal year stats for AOS? U first brought it out and discussed last jan(06). I keep checking their stats page, but they dont seem to update it anymore.
--MC
 
m_chundi said:
Thanks BerkeleyBee for the Update.
Did u get a chance to ask if they r going to publish the 2006 fiscal year stats for AOS? U first brought it out and discussed last jan(06). I keep checking their stats page, but they dont seem to update it anymore.
--MC

All,

I did not ask him absolutely every question there is about visa numbers. :)

By now you know that neither CIS nor the State dept are models of efficiency. So they don't publish the annual stats on time every year. Feel free to call the Ombudsmans office to get an update on what they expect this year.

BTW, I've said everything I had to say on this thread. Going to sign off now.

I posted this instead of just sitting on the info because I thought that all the people who look at the Visa Bulletin page every day and speculate on its contents constantly would get a break, and think about other things for 6 months.

Hang in there.

best,
Berkeleybee
 
Thanks. You have done a wonderful service.


berkeleybee said:
All,

I did not ask him absolutely every question there is about visa numbers. :)

By now you know that neither CIS nor the State dept are models of efficiency. So they don't publish the annual stats on time every year. Feel free to call the Ombudsmans office to get an update on what they expect this year.

BTW, I've said everything I had to say on this thread. Going to sign off now.

I posted this instead of just sitting on the info because I thought that all the people who look at the Visa Bulletin page every day and speculate on its contents constantly would get a break, and think about other things for 6 months.

Hang in there.

best,
Berkeleybee
 
berkeleybee said:
He said it was possible that there would be some backward movement of EB-3 ROW in April, when DOL finished up the remaining labor certs, 245is etc. Unused EB-1 ROW and EB-2 ROW are being funnelled to EB-3 ROW, but demand is HUGE. To get some sense of the magnitude of the problem I gave him a hypothetical -- if all the unused visas from FY 2006 (10K) were given to EB-3 ROW would it be current? He laughed. Not at all apparently.

Is it true that EB1 and EB2 numbers go to EB3 even if there are people waiting in EB2? That means we should count only 9800 visas per year for EB2-India.
If I have my numbers right, that equates to a forward movement of 1 month for every 8 months... good luck all
 
Thanks for the update ...

berkeleybee said:
All,

As I just posted in the Outlook FY 2007 thread I had the chance to talk to a State dept official who is involved in setting cutoff dates.

Amongst other things this official told me that there will be no movement in EB-2, EB-3 India cutoff dates for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at the very least through Sept 2007).

For an explanation of why, read UnitedNations posts about numbers in the Outlook FY 2007 thread linked above. He has got it exactly right (though I confess that I haven't read every single post in that thread).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far.]

berkeleybee,

As disappointing as this news is, its not surprising. I had written of this year anyway, whats another year or two when one has been waiting for over 5.

cheers,

saras
 
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Immigrationvoice

berkeleybee said:
All,

As I just posted in the Outlook FY 2007 thread I had the chance to talk to a State dept official who is involved in setting cutoff dates.

Amongst other things this official told me that there will be no movement in EB-2, EB-3 India cutoff dates for the rest of FY 2007 (i.e. at the very least through Sept 2007).

For an explanation of why, read UnitedNations posts about numbers in the Outlook FY 2007 thread linked above. He has got it exactly right (though I confess that I haven't read every single post in that thread).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Berkeleybee
PD: Jan 29, 2003 [So close yet so far.]

berkeleybee,

If I remember correctly you used to be or are a very active member in immigrationvoice. Its surprising that you have not shared this disturbing information in the immigrationvoice portal. Maybe I missed it on that forum.

This sort of information should encourage more people to support immigrationvoice and should have been posted on that forum even before the posting here.

cheers,

saras
 
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Well ..

pswami said:
It is revealed here so that all members waiting for their greencards and happily thinking it will come soon enough can migrate to Immigratiovoice.org and actively help in the efforts. Nice strategy Berkleybee.

pswami,

I wouldn't take it that far but your concerns are valid. As I stated in another posting, we immigrants have to think through everything and cannot blindly believe anything that is posted on these forums. This applies to both good and bad news. If someone posts that dates will become current soon, we need to be very skeptical of that as well. Some may take it as not being realistic or being "in denial" but its best to question everything rather than stupidly accept "expert" or "insider information". Why would true "experts" and people with "insider information" waste their time in these forums? Most so called experts are just immigrants who have gained a lot of experience by being stuck in this process for an extended period of time .. they are not true experts .. nor do they have any insider information. (Some people mistake me to be an expert because I have gone through several different hurdles in this process and have learnt a lot but I do not consider myself any sort of an expert. I just share my experiences and opinions.)

We just need to be realistic and follow official updates in the monthly bulletins. The monthly bulletin is the true "Horse" (the existence of which can be verified) and we need to follow that horses mouth ..

PS - I am not discounting BBs post or her intention. For all I know, she may be right.

regards,

saras
 
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redmonduser33 said:
Is it true that EB1 and EB2 numbers go to EB3 even if there are people waiting in EB2? That means we should count only 9800 visas per year for EB2-India.
If I have my numbers right, that equates to a forward movement of 1 month for every 8 months... good luck all
if i remember it right.......its not 9800/year for EB2-india.........its just 2800/year ......and this included family also.....that means only around 1300 actual candidates are going to get GC via each country-category...

am i wrong?
 
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