EB3 World situation:What we know so far.

M

marlon2006

Registered Users (C)
Is it true that by USCIS rules, potential unused EB1 and EB2 RoW visas would be reallocated to EB3 RoW since the demand for EB1+EB2+EB3 RoW is larger than supply ?

Also, is it true that historically, October visa bulletins tend to advance cut-off dates significantly ? It seems that even the frightening October 2005 visa bulletin advanced dates from "unavailable" to "2001". It seems like comic. I need to see those damn cut-off dates advancing to April 2002 coming this October.
 
LUD change on pending I-485 VSC

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Friend01: RD 06DEC05 (back from Boston), LUD 13JUL06 and 07AUG06.
Friend02: RD 06DEC05 (back from Boston), LUD 18DEC05 and 07AUG06.
 
marlon2006,
If you follow visa bulletins for November 2005(talks about why AC21 recapture rules would not be followed in FY2006 that way forcing country quotas), October 2005 bulletin (this clearly talks about the country quota in FY2006) and recently released press statement about chinese visa number availability all point one thing -- over subscribed countries are worked on country quotas in FY 2006 because row eb3 is retrogressed. So the overflow would go to the row eb3 first.
 
Good. So then we have hope that this darn October 2006 visa bulletin may advance EB3 RoW. Eb1 RoW and EB2 Row are both current so far. But again, I won't hold my breath and get disappointed again.

indian_gc_ocean said:
marlon2006,
If you follow visa bulletins for November 2005(talks about why AC21 recapture rules would not be followed in FY2006 that way forcing country quotas), October 2005 bulletin (this clearly talks about the country quota in FY2006) and recently released press statement about chinese visa number availability all point one thing -- over subscribed countries are worked on country quotas in FY 2006 because row eb3 is retrogressed. So the overflow would go to the row eb3 first.
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I predict retro in October

marlon2006 said:
Good. So then we have hope that this darn October 2006 visa bulletin may advance EB3 RoW. Eb1 RoW and EB2 Row are both current so far. But again, I won't hold my breath and get disappointed again.
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I swore to myself that I would stay off this board after reading the August bulletin. However, it's easy to give in to the temptation to hear other viewpoints, etc.

I believe DOS was quite specific in their outlook a month or so ago (I read it both here, and on some other site) that they were predicting extreme regression for EB3.

I too have hope that dates will advance (I'm March 2002), but I believe the 245(i)/LC backlog flood will hit during the fiscal year, and we won't see movement past May 1, 2001 for at least another 2 years.

I, for one, truly hope that I am wrong.
 
Late 2001 PDs


USCIS_GC_APPRO,

Late 2001 India EB3 PDs are in many ways most uncertain about their status. Those with PDs in 2002 and 03 know that its going to be a while. Those with more recent PDs can't even apply and know what to expect. Us 2001 filers seem so close to the current PDs but might have to wait forever. We are in a state of total limbo. Giving up on the process doesn't make sense because we are so close at the same time, waiting for our PDs to become current is painful since we have been waiting longer than most people. Its a catch 22 situation for us 2001 PDs.

I have accepted the fact that we are just unfortunate to not have been approved by now. No two ways about it. Things were meant to work out this way. I am trying to make the most of it by trying to keep myself busy. There is no other solution ..

regards,

saras
 
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Some bill become law sooner or later...

If there is no law till mid-2007, I'll be very concerned. Till than it's a game of patience.
 
If you think about EB3 World, it's pretty bad. For the entire fiscal year 2006 (ending soon), the PD has stayed in 2001.... 2002 looks like some kind of light-speed barrier which we can't break through.
The new fiscal year 2007, well... hopefully anyway, should push us into 2002.
If October bulletin doesn't move us into Dec 2001 at least, then I think USCIS has gone from being inept to plain criminal.

About the unused visa numbers... my impression is that other countries in the same category get them first? That means EB1 World -> EB1 India/China/Mexico/Philipines before going to EB2 and then EB3 last.

marlon2006 said:
Is it true that by USCIS rules, potential unused EB1 and EB2 RoW visas would be reallocated to EB3 RoW since the demand for EB1+EB2+EB3 RoW is larger than supply ?

Also, is it true that historically, October visa bulletins tend to advance cut-off dates significantly ? It seems that even the frightening October 2005 visa bulletin advanced dates from "unavailable" to "2001". It seems like comic. I need to see those damn cut-off dates advancing to April 2002 coming this October.
Click to expand...
 
Someday all these insane nightmare will be gone, but scars remain. I am sorry to lament here, but we are all in a deep s*. My career is in serious jeopardy.


\\\
ufo2002 said:
If you think about EB3 World, it's pretty bad. For the entire fiscal year 2006 (ending soon), the PD has stayed in 2001.... 2002 looks like some kind of light-speed barrier which we can't break through.
The new fiscal year 2007, well... hopefully anyway, should push us into 2002.
If October bulletin doesn't move us into Dec 2001 at least, then I think USCIS has gone from being inept to plain criminal.

About the unused visa numbers... my impression is that other countries in the same category get them first? That means EB1 World -> EB1 India/China/Mexico/Philipines before going to EB2 and then EB3 last.
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A law by mid-2007. Then you have all the logistics, politics to be worked out- one more year. By then I will be grandpa already.

gravitation said:
If there is no law till mid-2007, I'll be very concerned. Till than it's a game of patience.
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BECs, DOL and DOS

Guys and Gals,

Although we should be afraid of the possibility of further delays due to 245is, I think it will be better if the BECs actually do eliminate their backlogs. That way the DOS will have a better idea of actually how many 245is are pending and roughly how many are heading towards 140/485. Right now they are basing all dates on assumptions. If the backlogs are cleared and the number of 245is are indeed very high then we will all know that we are screwed for a few more years. If not then DOS will realize that they had overestimated the problem and they will move the dates for EB3.

At this point I am more in favor of knowing exactly how badly we are screwed rather than this uncertainty. If we know that its going to take another 2 years then we can try to come to terms with that and plan accordingly. Right now there are all sorts of theories and that adds to the stress.

regards,

saras
 
I thought that pretty much all 245(i) cases had been touched already ? I recalled I read on immigration-law that 45-day letter had been sent in massive scale due to the initial processing of 200K+ 245(i) damn cases. If so, then there is no more excuse for DOS to 'estimate' things. The problem is that since there is so the workload issue, USCIS probably doesn't want to advance dates significantly since people could become eligible to file I-485, and therefore introduce new work on their plates.


saras76 said:
Guys and Gals,

Although we should be afraid of the possibility of further delays due to 245is, I think it will be better if the BECs actually do eliminate their backlogs. That way the DOS will have a better idea of actually how many 245is are pending and roughly how many are heading towards 140/485. Right now they are basing all dates on assumptions. If the backlogs are cleared and the number of 245is are indeed very high then we will all know that we are screwed for a few more years. If not then DOS will realize that they had overestimated the problem and they will move the dates for EB3.

At this point I am more in favor of knowing exactly how badly we are screwed rather than this uncertainty. If we know that its going to take another 2 years then we can try to come to terms with that and plan accordingly. Right now there are all sorts of theories and that adds to the stress.

regards,

saras
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True ..

marlon2006 said:
I thought that pretty much all 245(i) cases had been touched already ? I recalled I read on immigration-law that 45-day letter had been sent in massive scale due to the initial processing of 200K+ 245(i) damn cases. If so, then there is no more excuse for DOS to 'estimate' things. The problem is that since there is so the workload issue, USCIS probably doesn't want to advance dates significantly since people could become eligible to file I-485, and therefore introduce new work on their plates.
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marlon,

You are right. There are several factors in play here. It is likely that most 245i cases have been reviewed by DOL and that DOS should have a good idea of the backlog. However, things never work as they should. The DOS will probably keep PDs lagging behind so as to not cause a flood of 140/485 filings. I think the Oct 06 bulletin will indicate the mood of DOS. Lets wait and see.

regards,

saras
 
Don't worry, you are not the only one. Last year, I was inches of getting fired actually. :p I got my own set of issues with my employer, even though they are my GC sponsors.
Just plan ahead in case you do feel that you may not be here for long.

marlon2006 said:
Someday all these insane nightmare will be gone, but scars remain. I am sorry to lament here, but we are all in a deep s*. My career is in serious jeopardy.
Click to expand...
 
Anybody smell fraud here? How many 245i application are there just for World category (excluding the Big 4 nations)? It's ridiculous for a supposedly "small" group of people to be knocking the PDs so far back to 2001. So maybe there are a whole lot more people than originally estimated when 245i bill was approved.

saras76 said:
Although we should be afraid of the possibility of further delays due to 245is, I think it will be better if the BECs actually do eliminate their backlogs. That way the DOS will have a better idea of actually how many 245is are pending and roughly how many are heading towards 140/485. Right now they are basing all dates on assumptions. If the backlogs are cleared and the number of 245is are indeed very high then we will all know that we are screwed for a few more years. If not then DOS will realize that they had overestimated the problem and they will move the dates for EB3.

At this point I am more in favor of knowing exactly how badly we are screwed rather than this uncertainty. If we know that its going to take another 2 years then we can try to come to terms with that and plan accordingly. Right now there are all sorts of theories and that adds to the stress.
Click to expand...
 
I dont understand then why they took the dates back in 2001. What are they trying to do?. Will they able to consume all visa numbers for this year?.




guldukan said:
Guys,

check this,
http://www.doleta.gov/sga/rfp/PwCFinalReport.cfm

According to this report, there are about 300K pending cases in BEC, out of which around 145K are 245i, to me these are not huge numbers that takes almost 5 years to processes

I certainly smell consiperacy here but not any fraud, becuase no body has broken any law.
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I think there were 300K; the report is back from Jan 2002. More recently it has been published that a number of those applications are simply bogus. As we already know, once the amnesty word is out illegals who do not qualify just submit the paperwork to USCIS to see whether they get the greencard. By the way, in many cases they do. I think I saw at immigration-law that 30%+ of those applications are simply rejected, hence the 200K number I listed before. Am I right ?

guldukan said:
Guys,

check this,
http://www.doleta.gov/sga/rfp/PwCFinalReport.cfm

According to this report, there are about 300K pending cases in BEC, out of which around 145K are 245i, to me these are not huge numbers that takes almost 5 years to processes

I certainly smell consiperacy here but not any fraud, becuase no body has broken any law.
Click to expand...
 
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# of pending 245is

marlon2006 said:
I think there were 300K; the report is back from Jan 2002. More recently it has been published that a number of those applications are simply bogus. As we already know, once the amnesty word is out illegals who do not qualify just submit the paperwork to USCIS to see whether they get the greencard. By the way, in many cases they do. I think I saw at immigration-law that 30%+ of those applications are simply rejected, hence the 200K number I listed before. Am I right ?
Click to expand...

marlon,

I am sure that atleast 30% if not more of the pending 245i cases will never make it to the 140 stage. So for the sake of the arguement, lets say that the number of pending 245i's that be approved by the BECs is around 200K. Of these 200K cases, atleast 50% are family based (I am sure its closer to 70%). That leaves 100K pending cases in the entire EB3 category. While I can understand that India EB3 will continue to struggle because of the 7% country cap, I am not sure why EB3 ROW is still struggling? There is defenitely more than meets the eye here. Here are the reasons according to me -

1. Fear of 245is. Although the fear is valid, it is being used as a bit of a cover for 2 and 3.

2. Lessen workload to incorporate new procedures (PERM,bi-specilization of service centers, 140 premium processing etc).

3. Give the agencies a couple of years to clear old backlogs.

It makes a lot of sense to me. The DOS and USCIS will not get another golden opportunity like 245is so they are milking it for all they can. No one can argue that 245is are a huge problem but the true extent of the problem can be and is being manipulated by DOS and USCIS. I firmly believe this. Its not a conspiracy theory at all.

regards,

saras
 
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