EB3 World situation:What we know so far.

[texancanadian]

Under 245(i) there were many filings from non mexican central and Latin American countries like Gautemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras etc. We see Hispanic ppl and assume they are from Mexico. Well many are from these central American countries who come under EB3 World and therefore EB3 World being slow.

However I do think EB3 World is much faster than EB3 INDIA. If I were EB3 World my date would be current today but its not.

 

[EAin2005]

Saras:

Do not forget that each LC will use at least two 485s, and sometime 3 to 4. On several WOM cases I looked at, they are all from 245i, ROW (pakistan, brazil, italy, central america, etc), all with at least 4 GCs, all EB-3 but without college degree (cooks, gardener, electricians, etc) so do not underestimate its effect. By the way, these guys are a lucky few among the sea of 245i because they all submit 485 before 2004, so they can file WOM to get GCs, but I am sure that there are a lot of them still pending at LC stage.

EA

marlon,

I am sure that atleast 30% if not more of the pending 245i cases will never make it to the 140 stage. So for the sake of the arguement, lets say that the number of pending 245i's that be approved by the BECs is around 200K. Of these 200K cases, atleast 50% are family based (I am sure its closer to 70%). That leaves 100K pending cases in the entire EB3 category. While I can understand that India EB3 will continue to struggle because of the 7% country cap, I am not sure why EB3 ROW is still struggling? There is defenitely more than meets the eye here. Here are the reasons according to me -

1. Fear of 245is. Although the fear is valid, it is being used as a bit of a cover for 2 and 3.

2. Lessen workload to incorporate new procedures (PERM,bi-specilization of service centers, 140 premium processing etc).

3. Give the agencies a couple of years to clear old backlogs.

It makes a lot of sense to me. The DOS and USCIS will not get another golden opportunity like 245is so they are milking it for all they can. No one can argue that 245is are a huge problem but the true extent of the problem can be and is being manipulated by DOS and USCIS. I firmly believe this. Its not a conspiracy theory at all.

regards,

saras

 

[benben912]

This 245i drives me crazy.

I read throught this report.

1. As of 2002/1 the report published date, there are 235,700 cases of 245i,
which inculde both cases filed in 1998 and april 2001.
don't know how many cases are from 1998, I guess all of them are done,
no effect to retrogression. so, the left 245i cases much less than 235,700
for sure.

2. FY2001, 127,000 non 245i cases filed.
FY 2000, 106,969 cases filed.
FY 1999, 60239 cases filed.
then, look at PERM 2005/3 - 2006/3, total 80K perm cases filed.

A good guess is at regular pace, in FY2002, 2003,2004, and half of
FY2005 (non perm), there are 80K cases filed every year,
total is 280K

When the BEC started, there are about 20K cases(RIR and non RIR filed
before 2002) already reached regional DOL, let's assume they are not
245i.

Total>235,700+280,000+20,000=535,700 cases.
BEC has 365,000 cases, that mean 170K cases were finished
in the year of 2002-2005. I don't believe non of the 170k cases
belong to 245i, how many? God knows. Let's assume half of them
are 245i, 85K 245i elimilated.

Up to now, 245i cases=235,700-85,000-cases from year 1998 << 150,000

Also, I don't buy the point that every LC will consume double or
triple visa number. Why? in Visa Bulletin, they clear
state dependents can't go over per-country 2% limmit. Also, I remember
somebody once said if there are too many dependents, they
will consumer family based visa number. Gurus, please throw some
thoughts on this.

150,000 cases of 245i are really not a very big deal!

3. Approval rate of 245i:
DOL BEC published some numbers last year: from 2005/3-2006/3,
100,000 cased processed, 50,000 cased certified.

In BECs, there are total 70K cases that are transfered from regional
DOL. Up to 2006/3, Dallas BEC processed most of case filed before 2004,
Phily BEC processed most cases, let's say, before 2002,
how many total? a good guess is 35K.

Again, from previous report, 90% of this kind of cases will be certified.
i.e. 31.5K will be certified.

Let's analyisis the 100,000 cases, of which 50,000 cased certified.
non 245i cases=35,000, certified 31,500
245i cases = 65,000, certified 18,500 less than 30%!!!

If there are 150,000 245i cases left, only 50,000 will be certified.

All in All, my points are 1. 245i cases are not too big!
2. The 245i cases reach 140/485 stages are
limitted!

I really hate the excuse of 245i.

Guys,

check this,
http://www.doleta.gov/sga/rfp/PwCFinalReport.cfm

According to this report, there are about 300K pending cases in BEC, out of which around 145K are 245i, to me these are not huge numbers that takes almost 5 years to processes

I certainly smell consiperacy here but not any fraud, becuase no body has broken any law.

 

[saras76]

Good points

Guys and Gals,

You have made some great points. There is such a lack of clear and concise information in this process that we can spend years trying to figure it out. The bottom line is that EB3 will probably continue to struggle for atleast another fiscal year. Oct 08 may bring some relief for 01 and 02 PDs. Whether the retrogression is based on true numbers or on overestimated numbers is of no consequence now. Fiscal year 06 is almost done and another year has already been added to our wait. Now we have to wait and see how many more years remain to be added to our wait time ...

regards,

saras

 

[posmd]

245(i) is the reason the USCIS is giving. IN truth there are clearly a combination of factors at play, one of which is the 245i applications.

1) 245i
2) The onset of PERM and recent fast 140 approvals have necessitated that they implement an overall slowdown in 485 applications, as many applicants are more rapidly reaching this stage.
3) The Expiry of AC21 extra numbers
4) The swell of H1b visa beneficiaries in 2002-2003 who are now coming into the green card pipeline and for whom a corresponding increase in EB visas was never planned. Of this swell the majority came from India and then China, hence these two countries are maximally affected. This point alone is perhaps greater than the 245i impact. 195K quota vs 65K per year for a couple years!
5) The fluidity of the job market over the last few years has led to much duplication of applications which magnifies the extent of the problem and makes it more difficult for the USCIS to make predictions (in addition to their own incompetence).

These are some of the reasons I can think of, I am sure there are others. So to blame 245i purely is not reality. Of course I would rather that those of us who have never overstayed anything here not have a separate queue, but the country has decided in 2000 that they are prepared to forgive those folks, we need to just accept that and move on.

 

[envision]

Truer words have never been spoken posmd 245i was implemented in 1998 and was further extended to April 30 2001. What many don't realize is that 245i cases will be in the system for a very long time since there is no expiration date on when I-485 and I-485 supplement A ($1000 fine) or adjustment of status applications may be filed to obtain the benefit.

 

[EAin2005]

The reason why each LC consumes 2 or more visa numbers is that each main applicant has a family and he/she needs to take care of that. The 2% dependent rule is not for family dependent (husband/wife), but rather for dependent state. For example, China is counted as a country and subject to 7% rule, but HongKong is counted as a dependent state and subject to its own 2% quota and not the 7% quota of China, even though it is part of China. Hope this answers your question. And no, EB dependents will not use FB numbers, unless you get married AFTER your 485 is approved.

EA

I read throught this report.

1. As of 2002/1 the report published date, there are 235,700 cases of 245i,
which inculde both cases filed in 1998 and april 2001.
don't know how many cases are from 1998, I guess all of them are done,
no effect to retrogression. so, the left 245i cases much less than 235,700
for sure.

2. FY2001, 127,000 non 245i cases filed.
FY 2000, 106,969 cases filed.
FY 1999, 60239 cases filed.
then, look at PERM 2005/3 - 2006/3, total 80K perm cases filed.

A good guess is at regular pace, in FY2002, 2003,2004, and half of
FY2005 (non perm), there are 80K cases filed every year,
total is 280K

When the BEC started, there are about 20K cases(RIR and non RIR filed
before 2002) already reached regional DOL, let's assume they are not
245i.

Total>235,700+280,000+20,000=535,700 cases.
BEC has 365,000 cases, that mean 170K cases were finished
in the year of 2002-2005. I don't believe non of the 170k cases
belong to 245i, how many? God knows. Let's assume half of them
are 245i, 85K 245i elimilated.

Up to now, 245i cases=235,700-85,000-cases from year 1998 << 150,000

Also, I don't buy the point that every LC will consume double or
triple visa number. Why? in Visa Bulletin, they clear
state dependents can't go over per-country 2% limmit. Also, I remember
somebody once said if there are too many dependents, they
will consumer family based visa number. Gurus, please throw some
thoughts on this.

150,000 cases of 245i are really not a very big deal!

3. Approval rate of 245i:
DOL BEC published some numbers last year: from 2005/3-2006/3,
100,000 cased processed, 50,000 cased certified.

In BECs, there are total 70K cases that are transfered from regional
DOL. Up to 2006/3, Dallas BEC processed most of case filed before 2004,
Phily BEC processed most cases, let's say, before 2002,
how many total? a good guess is 35K.

Again, from previous report, 90% of this kind of cases will be certified.
i.e. 31.5K will be certified.

Let's analyisis the 100,000 cases, of which 50,000 cased certified.
non 245i cases=35,000, certified 31,500
245i cases = 65,000, certified 18,500 less than 30%!!!

If there are 150,000 245i cases left, only 50,000 will be certified.

All in All, my points are 1. 245i cases are not too big!
2. The 245i cases reach 140/485 stages are
limitted!

I really hate the excuse of 245i.

 

[nonogc]

I don't know how many those discusses have done by us. But as we were in the dark, our base in nowhere. so~~~but i still enjoy reading those threads.

 

[saras76]

Frustration ..

Same discussions, over and over and over again by the same people. It's actually frustrating to read that people don't get it and aren't going to get it.

unitednations,

These discussions are out of frustration and an inherent need for people to share it with others going through the same mess. This is an exaggeration but AA organizations and other support groups know exactly what the problem is and yet they meet and discuss things. I am sure the same things are discussed over and over but it helps some people. A lot of us are in a similar frustarting situation. Sometimes just sharing even ludicrous ideas and thougths helps some people. At times people like to discuss positive possibilities even if they know that these are not likely by a long shot. If it truly frustrates you to read these discussions then its best that you ignore them. You know the truth and know exactly what the problem is so why get frustrated by these posts. Its a waste of your time. Let the same people who keep posting these things waste their time, it is after all their time and should have no effect on your life. I can say with much certainty that most people who participate in these discussions are not looking for any answers per say. They are just trying to share ideas and theories. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

cheers,

 

[marlon2006]

Good UN, based on your experience do you dare to estimate anything for EB3 World cut-off dates on October 2006 Visa Bulletin ? Or it is simply impossible to predict anything ?

Same discussions, over and over and over again by the same people. It's actually frustrating to read that people don't get it and aren't going to get it.

 

[marlon2006]

Thanks UN. Take it easy. I don't even think about conspiracy on this. I just think it is pure incompetence from multiple administrations. That's all I know for sure. We talk once in a while in these threads as a stress relief. There is no one else to listen to us you know.

Are you guys Oliver Stone fans (he's the biggest conspiracy theorist around).

You and Marlon have been very active in researching this issue. Both of you continue to mislead people on the retrogression issue and continue to feed that uscis/dos has some type of conspiracy theory with nothing whatsoever to back it up.

For everyone's benefit:

Demand is greater then supply.
India/china is limited to 7% of the greencards per category. (2,800) until the rest of the world becomes current.

Family members get counted against the cap

Many 245i candidates still haven't gotten the greencard because they are stuck in local office interviews

Labors as far back as 1998 are still pending. Texas has started to approve April 2001 labors filed in regular permanent at the beginning of this year. California and New York still haven't approved them.

there are many indians who are using 245i labors with family members back in india who are going to use Follow to join once primary gets approved.

USCIS is on pace to use up all 140,000 visas this year.

India/china/mexico/phillipines will be subject to 2,800 visas per category including dependents until ROW becomes current.

DOS warned in visa bulletin that there will be even more severe retrogression.

Everyone should stop the crap about conspiracy theories and get over it.

 

[saras76]

Your opinions ...

Are you guys Oliver Stone fans (he's the biggest conspiracy theorist around).

You and Marlon have been very active in researching this issue. Both of you continue to mislead people on the retrogression issue and continue to feed that uscis/dos has some type of conspiracy theory with nothing whatsoever to back it up.

For everyone's benefit:

Demand is greater then supply.
India/china is limited to 7% of the greencards per category. (2,800) until the rest of the world becomes current.

Family members get counted against the cap

Many 245i candidates still haven't gotten the greencard because they are stuck in local office interviews

Labors as far back as 1998 are still pending. Texas has started to approve April 2001 labors filed in regular permanent at the beginning of this year. California and New York still haven't approved them.

there are many indians who are using 245i labors with family members back in india who are going to use Follow to join once primary gets approved.

USCIS is on pace to use up all 140,000 visas this year.

India/china/mexico/phillipines will be subject to 2,800 visas per category including dependents until ROW becomes current.

DOS warned in visa bulletin that there will be even more severe retrogression.

Everyone should stop the crap about conspiracy theories and get over it.

UN,

I will defenitely try to get over it but I think you need to get over yourself first. I remember from your previous posts where you stated that you have GC or equivalent from 6-7 countries, you dine with big shots in NY and Wall Street, you do this and you do that. It was the biggest piece of self promoting, pompous crap I had ever read in my life. It was rather amusing to read that post.

Let me ask you one question? Why do you waste your time with people like us who in your opinion have no knowledge, spread lies and have nothing better to do. I am sure you have a lot of better things to do.

As for your baseless comments. No one is spreading any conspiracy theories here. For the sake of this argument lets say that I am spreading conpiracy theories. You are free to challenge them in any way you please. You have no right to ask anyone to not post stuff. Is it offending anyone? I think not. People can read it and ignore it.

Also I have never once seen what your PD is, which country you are from and what your interest is in this forum? The only thing that you advertise in your signature is your email address and phone number. I am inclined to believe that finding loop holes in the system (ability to pay, 245i cases) is a side business for you and you advertise yourself nicely.

I try not to get into arguements with people and I am also very understading towards peoples feelings. However, I have no patience for people like you who think no end of themselves and only post things to make others look stupid.

saras

 

[CoolTiger]

UN
Everything you have said is correct. They are pretty much known facts.
For theories(conspiracy or not) USCIS doesn't have any theory/logic at all!
Its an overburdened, underfunded, inept agency which simply struggles to survive specially in today's post 9/11 political climate.
It has specially been cornered since it issued visa extensions to the terrorists.
Retrogession is a mess right now, mostly for the reasons posted by you, but the fact that's in the hands of agencies not capable of efficiently handling it makes it worse!

 

[saras76]

Facts

UN
Everything you have said is correct. They are pretty much known facts.
For theories(conspiracy or not) USCIS doesn't have any theory/logic at all!
Its an overburdened, underfunded, inept agency which simply struggles to survive specially in today's post 9/11 political climate.
It has specially been cornered since it issued visa extensions to the terrorists.
Retrogession is a mess right now, mostly for the reasons posted by you, but the fact that's in the hands of agencies not capable of efficiently handling it makes it worse!

CoolTiger,

We all know these facts my friend. No one is trying to spread conspiracy theories. There are all sorts of theories out there and people are free to believe whatever they wish. My point is that there is no harm in a discussion if people feel better about it. Does it change anything .. no, does it harm anyone .. no, then why do people have problems with others stating their opinions. A lot of opinions and theories are wrong and can be debated .. thats the whole point of this forum I believe. Belittleing someone for something they may believe is what I am against ...

regards,

saras

 

[GreenCardVirus]

UN,

I will defenitely try to get over it but I think you need to get over yourself first.

Take it easy saras, this forum needs people like UN and you.

 

[benben912]

take it easy, UN and Saras76

We need both of you!

thanks for the clarification!

Are you guys Oliver Stone fans (he's the biggest conspiracy theorist around).

You and Marlon have been very active in researching this issue. Both of you continue to mislead people on the retrogression issue and continue to feed that uscis/dos has some type of conspiracy theory with nothing whatsoever to back it up.

For everyone's benefit:

Demand is greater then supply.
India/china is limited to 7% of the greencards per category. (2,800) until the rest of the world becomes current.

Family members get counted against the cap

Many 245i candidates still haven't gotten the greencard because they are stuck in local office interviews

Labors as far back as 1998 are still pending. Texas has started to approve April 2001 labors filed in regular permanent at the beginning of this year. California and New York still haven't approved them.

there are many indians who are using 245i labors with family members back in india who are going to use Follow to join once primary gets approved.

USCIS is on pace to use up all 140,000 visas this year.

India/china/mexico/phillipines will be subject to 2,800 visas per category including dependents until ROW becomes current.

DOS warned in visa bulletin that there will be even more severe retrogression.

Everyone should stop the crap about conspiracy theories and get over it.

 

[marlon2006]

When did you see me misleading others that this is a conspiracy ?
Speculation and venting about a possibility is not necessarily misleading. This is what most people are doing in this forum. Let me tell you that are very few useful things you can say lately. The process is simply stuck. Not much activity here to talk about intelligent things.

UnitedNations, I think it is very inappropriate from you accusing us of misleading others on conspiracy theories. It happens that I don't even think about conspiracy, but even if I did, this is a forum where people are supposed to express ideas. It is very silly watch people trying to censor others in open forums.

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

Cool down everyone. Thanks for your patience in making it clear UN. Obviously you are frustrated in posting this thousandth time and everyone else is frustrated in immigration delays. After a long time, I realized that being at peace needs the right understanding of law. I think we should follow the current law as long as we can and try work based on that. Traditionally, this has been the job of companies HR and immigration attorneys, but now, unfortunately for those who missed the GC boom between 2002-2004, they need to have time-to-time update on these laws. Otherwise we are all doomed forever without career and happiness.

In general, DOS has a decent record of following the law. But for me, any major immigration law change is doubtful when the economy is heading towards recession that too when conservatives are ruling. If we cannot work with in the law we should always have Plan B. What more DOS can do with limited number of visas unless there is a law change -- retrogression is the only thing.

Thanks to everyone’s (UN, posmd, saras, marlon and many others) help in understanding how these things work.

 

[CoolTiger]

I don't believe anybody is spreading any conspiracy theories here.
And nonbody, not UN, not saras, not me, not even the agencies themselves know the extent and impact of the retrogression.
And that's the most frustrating part for people affected by it.

 

[ufo2002]

Wow guys, take it easy. I mean... we are all in the same situation here, so I think we should have a sense of humor about it. Of course there will be conspiracy theories about why this happened... hey, I believe in cause and effect... meaning this retrogression didn't just happen for no **** reason. I enjoy giving my opinions and also asking others for their opinions but I don't think anybody deserves to be insulted as being stupid or "cannot learn".

We need to have a sense of humor with our situation and laugh and make fun of it from time to time... otherwise, we end up like a certain group of people in a certain part of the world who believes the solution to everything is violence. Well... with that over, I propose October to be Happy Retrogression Month... since that's when USCIS starts new fiscal year and continues to disappoint us all.