Eb3- Cut off Date as on Oct 1/ 2005

S

ShibuGeorge

Registered Users (C)
Has there been any precedents regarding the visa becoming un available
and where the cut off date was pegged at the following fiscal year?
Visa Bullettin Says that there is going to be a cut-off date which is not surprising. But the real question is where can we expect this cut-off date moved to?
Any realistic ideas?
 
Hey Shibu
Nobody knows. I went thru archived bullettins. But none of them give any idea. Last retro was in 2001 and it took an year or so that to go away. But at that time there were recaptured visas. Also nobody knows the amount of visas going to get for EB3 country. And nobdoy knows how many EB3s are pending for each country. Inshort no input. Its only a matter of a simple
query :)

Select count(*) ,country from 485DB where type='EB3' and status='PENDING' group by country

But who will run the query for us :) :)

good luck buddy. ( I guess you are a Mallu me too :) )

-babu
 
sbabunle said:
Hey Shibu
Nobody knows. I went thru archived bullettins. But none of them give any idea. Last retro was in 2001 and it took an year or so that to go away. But at that time there were recaptured visas. Also nobody knows the amount of visas going to get for EB3 country. And nobdoy knows how many EB3s are pending for each country. Inshort no input. Its only a matter of a simple
query :)

Select count(*) ,country from 485DB where type='EB3' and status='PENDING' group by country

But who will run the query for us :) :)

good luck buddy. ( I guess you are a Mallu me too :) )

-babu
Click to expand...

All have to wait patiently until Sept bulletin to know exact answer.
 
What say we all try to produce our guesstimates and see how the average of all votes is close or far from the real date when the bulletin comes out in mid of Sept.

My vote:

EB-3 will retrogress further to Dec 2001/Jan 2002.

Reason: Silly Philly has finally started certifying cases with PD's of 2001. There'll be a glut of them in October.

This assumes that Immigration Reform bill doesn't come into affect within the next one month of which there's no hope anyway.
 
My Guess: April 2003.
gravitation said:
What say we all try to produce our guesstimates and see how the average of all votes is close or far from the real date when the bulletin comes out in mid of Sept.

My vote:

EB-3 will retrogress further to Dec 2001/Jan 2002.

Reason: Silly Philly has finally started certifying cases with PD's of 2001. There'll be a glut of them in October.

This assumes that Immigration Reform bill doesn't come into affect within the next one month of which there's no hope anyway.
Click to expand...
 
spouse last name

Hi Gurus,

I am waiting to apply for I-485 for my spouse once my PD becomes current.
I have couple of questions...

1. My wife passport shows my last name now(after marriage we applied), so when I apply for her I-485 do the USCIS require any additional proof of lastname change??

2. I don't know whether she can get her SSN# and Driver's License with the changed lastname, cause all the other document still refers to her old last name.

first of all will she get a driver's licesnce on H4??

Thanks in advance...
 
rsimhadri said:
Hi Gurus,

I am waiting to apply for I-485 for my spouse once my PD becomes current.
I have couple of questions...

1. My wife passport shows my last name now(after marriage we applied), so when I apply for her I-485 do the USCIS require any additional proof of lastname change??

----Marriage Certificate

2. I don't know whether she can get her SSN# and Driver's License with the changed lastname, cause all the other document still refers to her old last name.

----She won't get SSN because she is on H4. She can get DL.

first of all will she get a driver's licesnce on H4??
----Yes

Thanks in advance...
Click to expand...
 
So does anybody get a price for getting the closest guesstimate?

My Guesstimate is Oct 2002.
 
MY prediction : On October 1st 2005, They will establish 01/01/03 as a Priority date for EB3 category..


neocor said:
So does anybody get a price for getting the closest guesstimate?

My Guesstimate is Oct 2002.
Click to expand...
 
Please do not take this thread all too serious

By this time every one knows that guestimates
dont work well with INS
We have seen that with priority date progress in July
While every one was predicting quantum leap in priority
date based on several number crunches and projected
models, the Visa Bullettin threw out hopes of even the worst
pessimists ( I was expecting moderate advancement in PD)
So let this be a pure guessing game
So lets play the slots here
I would think Dec 2002
 
what is immigration reform bill about?

Guys,

What is this immigration reform bill about? Is there a chance that they will increase the visa numbers?

gravitation said:
What say we all try to produce our guesstimates and see how the average of all votes is close or far from the real date when the bulletin comes out in mid of Sept.

My vote:

EB-3 will retrogress further to Dec 2001/Jan 2002.

Reason: Silly Philly has finally started certifying cases with PD's of 2001. There'll be a glut of them in October.

This assumes that Immigration Reform bill doesn't come into affect within the next one month of which there's no hope anyway.
Click to expand...
 
wassup said:
Guys,

What is this immigration reform bill about? Is there a chance that they will increase the visa numbers?
Click to expand...

There are two bills under consideration in congress. One bipartisan bill from Kennedy and McCain will increase the visa numbers very dramatically. Another bill by couple of republicans will still provide quite a bit of help. We don't know which bill will eventually prevail.

Both bills have many other provisions regarding immigration (including securing the Mexican border) and are important bills. So something should happen. Any of these bills -when passed- should make the EB-3 picture somewhat less pessimistic, at the least.

Bush administration is not in a immediate hurry to get this bill passed. There are different timelines reported. One is end of 2005, another is in time for elections-2006.

Worst possible scenario: EB-3 dates jump ahead by one year or more in mid 2006.
Best possible scenario: EB-3 dates become current/almost current by end 2005.

That's what I got after wasting hours of reading on this.
 
gravitation said:
EB-3 will retrogress further to Dec 2001/Jan 2002.

Reason: Silly Philly has finally started certifying cases with PD's of 2001. There'll be a glut of them in October.
Click to expand...
They are not able to file 485 till 1-st October. My guess dates will stay on July 2002 or move 1 month ahead but then in next month or two retrogress further.
 
I guess it will be June'03 because there'll be 40000 more visas available and considering the fact that most of the people who filed in 2002-2003 have already got GC's. I'm keeping my fingers crossed with my April'03 PD.
 
The verdict:

All the votes so far:

Jan 02
Jun 02
Jul 02
Jul 02
Jul 02
Oct 02
Dec 02
Apr 03
Jun 03
Oct 05

Average: Oct 2002
 
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