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DV2015 Winners from Sri Lanka

Elmar said:
Thank you so much! I'm very worried and doubtful about whether Asia will have a jump like the one we saw last year :(
Best of luck to you too! :)
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Certainly it would! I expect the last two VBs to have a higher jump because Nepal is cutoff and the AP cases also had been cleared mostly.

So we ROA can expect the numbers to move forward. But although datas and predictions are positive...it is nervous till you get that visa..isn't?

Thank you for your wish and wish you the same...
Lets stay positive and together. We will be current the sametime!
 
terryadamson7 said:
Certainly it would! I expect the last two VBs to have a higher jump because Nepal is cutoff and the AP cases also had been cleared mostly.

So we ROA can expect the numbers to move forward. But although datas and predictions are positive...it is nervous till you get that visa..isn't?

Thank you for your wish and wish you the same...
Lets stay positive and together. We will be current the sametime!
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Wow! I like your optimism :) But as you said it's gonna be nervous all the same..
But I thought we need less AP cases to be cleared right, so more visas can be available for the higher case numbers like us?
 
Elmar said:
Wow! I like your optimism :) But as you said it's gonna be nervous all the same..
But I thought we need less AP cases to be cleared right, so more visas can be available for the higher case numbers like us?
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Yes you are correct and that is what I also meant. Most AP cases are cleared and few on the go....so that is good news for us.

Roughly like 10 more days and we can expect the next vb....it is an anxious wait.

Meanwhile we shall wait for Brits predictions...:)
 
terryadamson7 said:
Yes you are correct and that is what I also meant. Most AP cases are cleared and few on the go....so that is good news for us.

Roughly like 10 more days and we can expect the next vb....it is an anxious wait.

Meanwhile we shall wait for Brits predictions...:)
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OK got you. Good luck!
 
Britsimon said:
To be honest, my head hurts from tilting to understand the spreadsheet and because I made the mistake of reading your conclusion before the spreadsheet, my heart isn't really in it. SiliconeSlinger is not going to be happy.

Let's do the math again.

First the quota. I work on 8500, but we will probably only see about 8000 in CEAC due to AoS - and I will use AoS adjusted numbers for Nepal and Iran also.

So Nepal will max (3500 ish) so that is going to mean about 3300 from our 8000.

Iran is heading for 2700 to 3000. Let's call it 2700 in CEAC.

That leaves 2000 (optimistically) for ROA across the whole range. So how many thousands of cases does it take to fill 2000

In the May 1 file we could exclude the 3 embassies and KDU and find 588 issued as being ROA. In fact that excludes Asians like you, but even accepting that and knowing the max CN that could have been interviewed was 4725 - that showed a ROA rate of 125/1000. In reality I think that was at least 135 maybe even 140 (assuming 60/70 people like you getting lost from the 4 excluded embassies). OK we also know that number is maturing as DS260 backlog continues, so within the 4725 there will eventually be a few more cases not yet processed. To me it seems very probable that we will get to a issued rate of AT LEAST 150/100 - that would mean 710 ROA cases instead of the 588 the May 1 file shows.

OK - so if we take our optimistic 2000 and divide by our optimistic 150 per thousand we get almost exactly last years cut off. If the 150 becomes 160 we are at 12500. If the 150 is right, but we only have 1700 left for ROA we have 11300.

So - when I see 14/15k predictions I know something is wrong with the number work....
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Hello Britsimon, i read your Asia estimate on your website.........but the numbers you mention there are different than what you indicate in this post.......most notably, you said that ROA would be 140 or possibly 150/1000 on your website......, here you say at least 150/1000 could you elaborate has something changed your mind from the time you wrote the Asia estimate and the time you wrote this post? thanks
 
johnelliot344 said:
Hey Smurf, we're in the same boat! invest in a good video game! and hope July 10th comes soon lol
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Britsimon’s prediction already revealed for June interviews.
http://britsimonsays.com/where-are-the-predictions/
Asian region will be increased up to 8000 to 9000. According to last year, June to July it’s have been increased from 8900 to 12700. But up to now we didn’t see that much increment in whole VB process in this year. As you said, We have to wait until 10th of July with ray of hopes.:)

Good Luck. :)
 
Smurfette said:
Britsimon’s prediction already revealed for June interviews.
http://britsimonsays.com/where-are-the-predictions/
Asian region will be increased up to 8000 to 9000. According to last year, June to July it’s have been increased from 8900 to 12700. But up to now we didn’t see that much increment in whole VB process in this year. As you said, We have to wait until 10th of July with ray of hopes.:)

Good Luck. :)
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he always said on his website that he could be wrong because he doesn't have all the information

so hopefully it's higher than 9000

im 12190 so me and you are not so different.......i've spent all night reading all the information that's available and what people have said.........i think it's really just a coin toss for us at this point.
and the scary thing is.........the difference for our numbers of making it or not...........could be literally an eyelash..........eeeeek

anyway....what else can we say? feel free to msg for emotional support from now until july 10th LOL , i've already planned a day off on that day just to see the results.
 
johnelliot344 said:
he always said on his website that he could be wrong because he doesn't have all the information

so hopefully it's higher than 9000

im 12190 so me and you are not so different.......i've spent all night reading all the information that's available and what people have said.........i think it's really just a coin toss for us at this point.
and the scary thing is.........the difference for our numbers of making it or not...........could be literally an eyelash..........eeeeek

anyway....what else can we say? feel free to msg for emotional support from now until july 10th LOL , i've already planned a day off on that day just to see the results.
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I think it is more probable for the results be out on the 15th of July (it could even be a bit latter).
You should take the whole week off.
 
johnelliot344 said:
Hello Britsimon, i read your Asia estimate on your website.........but the numbers you mention there are different than what you indicate in this post.......most notably, you said that ROA would be 140 or possibly 150/1000 on your website......, here you say at least 150/1000 could you elaborate has something changed your mind from the time you wrote the Asia estimate and the time you wrote this post? thanks
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The 140/150 number is growing. The backlog cases are coming through, so depending on timing of the two pieces I could have been looking at different numbers. I have also tried to estimate/predict growth - but you can easilyt take the actual data from an end of month CEAC file and get the number yourself. Simply exclude KDU, ABD, YRV, and ANK from the AS region. What remains is ROA (or the closest we can come to ROA).

Then, take the approvals and divide by the case number range that could have been current for that month (i.e. May interview number for the May 29 file. If you do that right now you should get 134. Add some for Aos and backlog.... and you can see why I talk of 140/150...
 
Smurfette said:
Britsimon’s prediction already revealed for June interviews.
http://britsimonsays.com/where-are-the-predictions/
Asian region will be increased up to 8000 to 9000. According to last year, June to July it’s have been increased from 8900 to 12700. But up to now we didn’t see that much increment in whole VB process in this year. As you said, We have to wait until 10th of July with ray of hopes.:)

Good Luck. :)
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GUESSTIMATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Britsimon said:
The 140/150 number is growing. The backlog cases are coming through, so depending on timing of the two pieces I could have been looking at different numbers. I have also tried to estimate/predict growth - but you can easilyt take the actual data from an end of month CEAC file and get the number yourself. Simply exclude KDU, ABD, YRV, and ANK from the AS region. What remains is ROA (or the closest we can come to ROA).

Then, take the approvals and divide by the case number range that could have been current for that month (i.e. May interview number for the May 29 file. If you do that right now you should get 134. Add some for Aos and backlog.... and you can see why I talk of 140/150...
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Ok, I am sorry if i am asking a lot of questions, but little things could end up being pretty important for me because i am literally on the fringes..................

1) you mentioned before that there is very little backlog for Asia, to the point it's almost inconsequential....so we can pretty much forget about that as having too much of an impact?

2) i've seen your explanation of Asia, just wondering, since quotas are only estimations as you mentioned, is it possible that the actual number could actually be higher by a few by a 100 or two by KCC in the end thereby allowing for more CNs (again little bit can mean a lot for me)..........i know that the limits for dv lottery usually end up a few thousand higher than they say at the beginning ie 50 000 to 55 000

3) So lastly, your Asia estimate on your website, it was on the 16th of may i think......should i still refer to it , im just asking because your last comment, about the ratio being 150 to 160/1000, that would eliminate a whole lot of people. so in the end if it remains 140 to 150/1000 cases, we still have a chance.

ps. where can i get this CEAC file that you speak of? approvals would be "issued"?
 
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