DV2010 winner - Apply for DV2011
- Thread starter sindebad
- Start date
Ohh, really?
Let me see, it affects in approximately, 0.0008%. That means that every 10.000 people applying for DV-2011, 8 will lose their chance of winning right after clicking the "Submit" button, even before the random selection...just because of those 2010 winners that applied again.
- 8 people every 10.000
Indeed it affects, barely yes, but it does. It is pure statistics.
Regarsd.
Pizzaro,
If you wanna speak statisticially, then here we go:
Chosing 102800 out of 13000000 => 0.790769230769231%
Chosing 102800 out of 13000001 => 0.790769169940833%
The difference is => 0.0000000608283976522017%
In other words, that would affect one person every 1643968999 (and not "8 people every 10.000"). Since we have only 13 million applicants, that means reapplying would kill the chance of 0.791% of a person, and not 0.791% of the applicants as you said.
If you do your math correctly, you will find that it affects:
1 person every 1643968999 applicants.
The influence on the probablity is not the question, otherwise no one would apply.
However, I was looking for the legal side. Actually, it is a matter of fact that 55000 selected applicants will not be granted a visa, do not you agree?
If you wanna speak statisticially, then here we go:
Chosing 102800 out of 13000000 => 0.790769230769231%
Chosing 102800 out of 13000001 => 0.790769169940833%
The difference is => 0.0000000608283976522017%
In other words, that would affect one person every 1643968999 (and not "8 people every 10.000"). Since we have only 13 million applicants, that means reapplying would kill the chance of 0.791% of a person, and not 0.791% of the applicants as you said.
If you do your math correctly, you will find that it affects:
1 person every 1643968999 applicants.
The influence on the probablity is not the question, otherwise no one would apply.
However, I was looking for the legal side. Actually, it is a matter of fact that 55000 selected applicants will not be granted a visa, do not you agree?
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Excuse me, you are not doing the same calculation that USAHolic has talked about:
I remind what he said:
USAHolic said:
So, If 102,800 winners applicate again over 13,000,000 that would mean (those 102,800 are part of those 13,000,000):
102,800/13,000,000=0,007907692, which is: 0.79%, let's say 0.8%
(in fact yes, I was mistaken, is 0.79% no 0.00079%, ...even worst)
That means, that the 0.8% of the DV-2011 applicants already have a NL.
That means, that when the computer randomly chooses again 102,800 winners, 0.8% of them will have already a previous NL.
What you are saying is if those 102,800 are apart of the 13,000,000 , but what USAHolic's message is saying, at least as I understand it, if in the case that after the DV-2011 process is done, 102,800 would have been the winners, out of 13,000,000 applicants (102,800 of them already winners for the DV-2010).
If you have in a bag 9 white eggs, and you put in 1 brown one, and you enter you hand randomly to get an egg, what would be the chance to get the brown one: 1/10, right? 10%
OK, so if you just put 8 white eggs, and put into the bag 2 brown eggs, what would be now the chance?: 2/10 right 20% (it is higher now).
This is when keeping the population fixed (10 eggs), if not:
- You put 9 white eggs, plus 1 brown one, chance 1/10=10%
- You put 9 white eggs, plus 5 brown one, chance 5/14=35%
The higher is the brown eggs population, the higher is the chance to get one, even not keeping the main population fixed.
The same with winner applicants (brown eggs).
Thanks.
I
I do, what about yours?
I think you are missing the point. The question is not about what is the chance for a person who was selected previously to be selected again. It is simply, if the 2010 winners applied again in 2011, how are they gonna affect the other applicants? Is it really a shame? In your "eggs" example, you demonstrated the probability of 2010 winners to win again in 2011. Of course the more the winners the bigger their chances is to win in 2011 GIVEN that ALL of them applied.
Okey, by using the "eggs" example, let's assume that we have 13 millions new applicants for 2011, and the random selection would pick 102800, then:
A- Choosing 102800 out of 13000000 => 0.0.79076923076923076923076923076923% (the chance for a person to win)
now, let's assume that ALL the 2010 winners applied back again in 2011
B- Choosing 102800 out of 13102800 => 0.78456513111701315749305491955918% (the chance for a person to win when ALL the 2010 winners applied again in 2011)
Note that the probability in B is smaller that the probability of A.
The influence of previous winners on the new applicants is the difference, which is:
6.2040996522176117377143111408218e-5%
Which means, if ALL the 102800 selected people in 2010 have applied in 2011, the chance for ANY person is reduced by 6.2040996522176117377143111408218e-5%.
In other words:
1 Person for each 1611837 Applicants.
Also not that not all the 102800 applicants would get visas, and I do not think that any one would leave the 2011 chance and apply in 2012. On the other hand, if half of the 102800 already had been selected previously and got visas, that mean that the rest would take a visa, and it is not likely that only 40,000 visas will be granted and leave the rest un-utilized.
I think we went off the subject here as this is not a statistical lesson, but EVEN if a selected person applied again, this will reduce the chance of others by 6.2e-5%, which has nothing to be ashamed of.
Okey, by using the "eggs" example, let's assume that we have 13 millions new applicants for 2011, and the random selection would pick 102800, then:
A- Choosing 102800 out of 13000000 => 0.0.79076923076923076923076923076923% (the chance for a person to win)
now, let's assume that ALL the 2010 winners applied back again in 2011
B- Choosing 102800 out of 13102800 => 0.78456513111701315749305491955918% (the chance for a person to win when ALL the 2010 winners applied again in 2011)
Note that the probability in B is smaller that the probability of A.
The influence of previous winners on the new applicants is the difference, which is:
6.2040996522176117377143111408218e-5%
Which means, if ALL the 102800 selected people in 2010 have applied in 2011, the chance for ANY person is reduced by 6.2040996522176117377143111408218e-5%.
In other words:
1 Person for each 1611837 Applicants.
Also not that not all the 102800 applicants would get visas, and I do not think that any one would leave the 2011 chance and apply in 2012. On the other hand, if half of the 102800 already had been selected previously and got visas, that mean that the rest would take a visa, and it is not likely that only 40,000 visas will be granted and leave the rest un-utilized.
I think we went off the subject here as this is not a statistical lesson, but EVEN if a selected person applied again, this will reduce the chance of others by 6.2e-5%, which has nothing to be ashamed of.
I don't think it will affect anyone. 100.000 people are extracted and from those 50.000 will get the visa. If a DV2010 winner is selected again(very unlikely), and he already got his visa, he will not be scheduled for an interview, but someone from those extra 50.000 will be selected.
You can not blame a 2010 winner for applying again if his number is high. You do not have a guarantee that you make it to the interview and your dream might not come true, and if you do not apply you lose a year.
You can not blame a 2010 winner for applying again if his number is high. You do not have a guarantee that you make it to the interview and your dream might not come true, and if you do not apply you lose a year.
I am a bit slow here I have had a very slow morning bare with me
, but why would someone who has already won 2010 want to enter 2011?You have the opportunity already and the odds as calculated above are very slim, and also by the time you get your NL next year it might be too late to go for your interview. If your number is a very low number and this year the process seems to be running fast as they started with 8300/8500 I don't remember. November cut of is 14000 I think.
Luck doesn't give you a second chance; but you never know go for it! But I would love to hear your response, because you might have valid reason.
Cheers Nyakie
albanmus
Registered Users (C)
My question is why would you want to re-enter the 2011 lottery if you have been selected for dv2010? If your reason is because you have a very high case number then thats fine. Whats your reason? If you do not make it through your interview, what makes you think that you will make it through in dv 2011?
I totally agree with you marioana
There are many reasons that might make someone apply another time, including:
- Confusion between country of chargeability and nationality
(See thread 303390 in this forum since I cannot post a link)
- High CN that is less likely to get visa
- Not knowing that you have already been selecting (misdelivered mail, without Confirmation number to check it online).
- Confusion between country of chargeability and nationality
(See thread 303390 in this forum since I cannot post a link)
- High CN that is less likely to get visa
- Not knowing that you have already been selecting (misdelivered mail, without Confirmation number to check it online).
In a way she is a winner since she will be getting one too, so why should she enter again unless you think you might not be eligible or won't pass the interview?....or you have a very high number.
One risk of entering again is, if you don't fill out the same info as before...nobody knows what they will save and what not, specially if you win again, or your spouse has won before. You have filled out the papers to apply for a GC so all that info is in their comp. and if you fill out the papers again you better have a copy left to fill out the same or you can be flagged.