DV14 Asia Prediction - Discussion (Using CEAC data)

[Kayend]

ok guys being from Nepal i want you to clarify a matter that is less discussed here... i have already said that what we have done of Nepali dv winner is that we had made a group on FB and have a good number of winners as a member this is the phenomenon of case i had already discussed here and what was surprising with the case number present in the group is number below 5k are dense and between 5k to 9k we have not so much cases but if we move from 9k to 14k there are almost 60% percent of members are present of that range and after that upto 22k we have members in group but density is very low over there so i assume that we may get good increase of 2k in a month or 1500 for two months in case of asia in some point of time in between march to july....and matter about the special cutoff for Nepal maynot come in between 5k to 9k but after 9k it may come but for now i donot see they will put special cuttoff for Nepal and a very important point we are missing is high sucess rate of Nepal and high AP cases of IRAN this might be two reason why still there is no special cutoff even due to Nepal there is a lag in vb but main thing is good sucess rate helps KCC to fill the quota of asia easily and without less load so still there is no any special cutoff for asia as in Nepal ap case and refusal is very low reducing workload of embassy and by which they can interview more number of selectee..

If we assume Nepal distribution pattern as you mentioned above then I think Nepal will easily hit to 14-15k case # before it hit its country limit. Regarding to case # increment, I think next VB or 2 will start to speed up even without any special cut off because after 3 months only 1195 visa issued and 5 months only 3553 selectees scheduled for interview with 23.5k selectees available in way too slow to meet the regional quota of at least 8000 visas. Anyway, let see what it goes to happen in Mar cut off in next few days time.

 

[Rayme]

ya true mate... i had already told about this distribution before also... so in between now to 9k vb wll move fast even without special cutoff for Nepal.. as embassy in nepal had interviewed last year 80 people in a day and one major thing we all should notice about nepal is if u see last year and this year data pricipal applicant donot have many derivatives most are single unmarried if married also then just a derivative is there so last year embassy didi interview 4 times a week with 80-100 per day at latter half so they can handle high number too..

If we assume Nepal distribution pattern as you mentioned above then I think Nepal will easily hit to 14-15k case # before it hit its country limit. Regarding to case # increment, I think next VB or 2 will start to speed up even without any special cut off because after 3 months only 1195 visa issued and 5 months only 3553 selectees scheduled for interview with 23.5k selectees available in way too slow to meet the regional quota of at least 8000 visas. Anyway, let see what it goes to happen in Mar cut off in next few days time.

 

[Sloner]

In Nepal, to CN 2647 issued 686 visas. that issue 3500 visas need 3500*2647/686= СN13505 -% latecomers to 2647.
In Iran, Ankara to CN1654 issued 59 visas
Yerevan to CN2649 issued 55 visas
Abu Dhabi to CN2633 issued 157 visas
That issue 3500 visas need 3500*2649/(94+55+157)= CN30200 -% latecomers to 2649
Iran will not be cut off. Nepal cut off from 9000-12500. Summer likely visa end in this country.
I did not count AP. CN is lower

 

[Kayend]

ya true mate... i had already told about this distribution before also... so in between now to 9k vb wll move fast even without special cutoff for Nepal.. as embassy in nepal had interviewed last year 80 people in a day and one major thing we all should notice about nepal is if u see last year and this year data pricipal applicant donot have many derivatives most are single unmarried if married also then just a derivative is there so last year embassy didi interview 4 times a week with 80-100 per day at latter half so they can handle high number too..

Well, in Nepal facebook group it only has a fraction of case # compare to CEAC data, so we might not know the exact distribution of case #. If based on probability, it should follow the distribution in CEAC but no one know how it get distributed until we start to see the data in CEAC. Hence, my original estimate follows the distribution of CEAC data.

 

[Rayme]

ya i agree with you bro but we have seen case distribution in nepali case in all range upto 22k and if we know about sample pacing and something about statistics then we can assume and calculate even with some little data before the data i had already told in this forumn that Nepal has dense case in the range upto 5k

Well, in Nepal facebook group it only has a fraction of case # compare to CEAC data, so we might not know the exact distribution of case #. If based on probability, it should follow the distribution in CEAC but no one know how it get distributed until we start to see the data in CEAC. Hence, my original estimate follows the distribution of CEAC data.

 

[dvbibasd]

ya Rayme is right...the case number has been concentrated below 4k then gradually spread upto the case number of 22k so that there is not a slim chance for a special cutoff for nepal....Besides this, nepal is one of the country in the world having high selectee n highest success rate, so they must keep nepal a special backup not special cutoff...its sure

 

[Rayme]

ya because in Nepal their is less AP and 90% sucess rate and also Nepal is not country listed in any war kinda thing even not a terrorism effected country so they will not put special cutoff for nepal if they keep than asia regional quota might not even reach 7000

ya Rayme is right...the case number has been concentrated below 4k then gradually spread upto the case number of 22k so that there is not a slim chance for a special cutoff for nepal....Besides this, nepal is one of the country in the world having high selectee n highest success rate, so they must keep nepal a special backup not special cutoff...its sure

 

[Kayend]

ya because in Nepal their is less AP and 90% sucess rate and also Nepal is not country listed in any war kinda thing even not a terrorism effected country so they will not put special cutoff for nepal if they keep than asia regional quota might not even reach 7000

Regional quota has nothing to do with country limit or based on a single country of the region. Asia did issued visa up to 9.2k before so I assume 8.5k as Asia regional quota is a safe bet. If Nepal has high success and take up rate, that would mean Nepal will hit their country limit very soon. If that happen, those case # held by Nepalese will be holes. It has 6k selectees, if we assume 90% take up & success rate it would mean it has 5400 selectees competing for 3500 available visa. So, 1900 selectees will not get their interview. Of course if the success rate or take up rate is lower then it will be more visa available to Nepalese.

Nepal is definitely the clear winner for DV14, because it has a lot of selectees having low CN at the same time it has high success rate. So based on my prediction, 3500 will be taken out from the regional quota for Nepal for sure.

 

[Rayme]

again I agree with you but what i mean to say is please take in account to this fact last year nepal had 4200 slectee even though visa issue with 90% sucess rate is 2800 so that means 4200 leads to 2800 visa as hole thoery exists and we have also seen holes even for this year so with evenly distribted case of nepal upto 14000 means if special cutoff for Nepal may not occur if it would have been than last month for sure still for this month vb is coming soon so lets wait and see but till then wait and see

Regional quota has nothing to do with country limit or based on a single country of the region. Asia did issued visa up to 9.2k before so I assume 8.5k as Asia regional quota is a safe bet. If Nepal has high success and take up rate, that would mean Nepal will hit their country limit very soon. If that happen, those case # held by Nepalese will be holes. It has 6k selectees, if we assume 90% take up & success rate it would mean it has 5400 selectees competing for 3500 available visa. So, 1900 selectees will not get their interview. Of course if the success rate or take up rate is lower then it will be more visa available to Nepalese.

Nepal is definitely the clear winner for DV14, because it has a lot of selectees having low CN at the same time it has high success rate. So based on my prediction, 3500 will be taken out from the regional quota for Nepal for sure.

 

[dvbibasd]

Regional quota has nothing to do with country limit or based on a single country of the region. Asia did issued visa up to 9.2k before so I assume 8.5k as Asia regional quota is a safe bet. If Nepal has high success and take up rate, that would mean Nepal will hit their country limit very soon. If that happen, those case # held by Nepalese will be holes. It has 6k selectees, if we assume 90% take up & success rate it would mean it has 5400 selectees competing for 3500 available visa. So, 1900 selectees will not get their interview. Of course if the success rate or take up rate is lower then it will be more visa available to Nepalese.

Nepal is definitely the clear winner for DV14, because it has a lot of selectees having low CN at the same time it has high success rate. So based on my prediction, 3500 will be taken out from the regional quota for Nepal for sure.

LOL kayend may be right to some extent about the quota of AS but you may have known about the case # and holes!!! The CEAC data shows that Nepal has just issued visa of 678 from 2650 in which the case # is concentrated below 4k as we have posted before!!!
I believe all are right when we say that they cut off high entry countries like Nepal at 6082 selectees, because otherwise KCC will flood with applications from those countries. 6082 selectees should be enough to reach the country quota of 3500 (3850 w/o NACARA), thats why they have selected!!!

If they ignore any further entries, but still number all initial entries with a CN number (allocating randomly a CN number to each application, by picking a first entry randomly and allocating case number 0000001, then a 2nd entry and allocating case number 0000002, and so on and so on ...), this would mean the high entry countries are creating more holes towards the high case numbers.

That would be the most logical explanation as to why they increased the max CN number vs last year to a percentage that is way much higher than the 35% increase in the selectee count.

This is good news and bad news for the high CN numbers:
- More holes between winning entries for high CN numbers > more chance for the final cutoff to be high
- More chance for high entry countries like Nepal to use up visas for each region and exhaust regional quota > less chance for the final cutoff to be high.

To sum up, the vb cutoff is gonna accelerate to meet the target of 22k for this nothing can do just lets wait and see!!!

 

[Kayend]

LOL kayend may be right to some extent about the quota of AS but you may have known about the case # and holes!!! The CEAC data shows that Nepal has just issued visa of 678 from 2650 in which the case # is concentrated below 4k as we have posted before!!!
I believe all are right when we say that they cut off high entry countries like Nepal at 6082 selectees, because otherwise KCC will flood with applications from those countries. 6082 selectees should be enough to reach the country quota of 3500 (3850 w/o NACARA), thats why they have selected!!!

If they ignore any further entries, but still number all initial entries with a CN number (allocating randomly a CN number to each application, by picking a first entry randomly and allocating case number 0000001, then a 2nd entry and allocating case number 0000002, and so on and so on ...), this would mean the high entry countries are creating more holes towards the high case numbers.

That would be the most logical explanation as to why they increased the max CN number vs last year to a percentage that is way much higher than the 35% increase in the selectee count.

This is good news and bad news for the high CN numbers:
- More holes between winning entries for high CN numbers > more chance for the final cutoff to be high
- More chance for high entry countries like Nepal to use up visas for each region and exhaust regional quota > less chance for the final cutoff to be high.

To sum up, the vb cutoff is gonna accelerate to meet the target of 22k for this nothing can do just lets wait and see!!!

If Nepalese case # really concentrated below 4k, that is also a good news for Nepalese because it look like all Nepalese who sent their applications will get their interview because it with such a dense case # range for Nepal only issue less than 700 visas, so to get 3500 might need to have interview for all Nepalese. This is also a good news for rest of Asia because country like Nepal do not have high take up rate as initially thought.

 

[dvbibasd]

ya I believe that you are right!!!

 

[Britsimon]

In theory, at the very beginning of the draw, entrants from each country should have the same chances. However, the countries with very high numbers of entries will obviously dominate the draw (until they get held back at ~6000). So I looked at the numbers of entries for 2013 (2014 not being available). I then applied that as a percentage to a nominal 1000 entries to give a feel for what would happen for the first 1000 AS entries. So, out of 1000 (and including family members) here are the number of selectees that each country would receive (to one decimal place). I'm really only posting this so that people can see just how many entrants there are from the first few countries.

IRAN 371.5
NEPAL 266.4
CAMBODIA 64.0
SRI LANKA 55.0
JAPAN 27.8
BURMA 23.8
TAIWAN 22.4
LEBANON 16.5
SAUDI ARABIA 15.6
JORDAN 15.6
YEMEN 15.0
INDONESIA 15.0
SYRIA 11.7
ISRAEL 11.5
IRAQ 11.1
MONGOLIA 10.5
AFGHANISTAN 8.7
KUWAIT 8.2
MALAYSIA 7.1
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 6.5
THAILAND 4.4
HONG KONG SPECIAL ADMIN. REGION 3.9
SINGAPORE 2.9
QATAR 1.7
BAHRAIN 1.0
BHUTAN 0.5
OMAN 0.5
LAOS 0.3
MALDIVES 0.2
NORTH KOREA 0.2
BRUNEI 0.1
TIMOR-LESTE 0.0

 

[Kayend]

If Nepal really do not have much selectees in the range of 4k to 9k and we know so far that Iran do not have much selectees above 9k,so that could mean Iran has a lot of selectees between 4k to 9k since Iran also has 6k selectees in DV14. So chances are high that this coming VB will have a bigger jump than last few VBs.

 

[kajarn]

what is the chances of 6XXX case number from nepal to have success?? any guesses???

 

[Kayend]

what is the chances of 6XXX case number from nepal to have success?? any guesses???

99% chances of getting interview but the success of interview it depends very much on case to case basis. Anyway, I don't see any complication for Nepalese of getting DV as long as you get what required by USCIS.

 

[raevsky]

Prediction of the case # cut off for Asia
Nepal - Case # (14k-15k)
Iran - Case # (10k)
Others - Case # 20k - 23k

Prediction for visa issued
Nepal - 3500
Iran -2000-2500
Others - 3000 - 3500

Assumption:
1. Asia region quota is 9k.
2. Nepal hit country limit by 10-11k, so case # after 11k held by Nepalese will consider as holes.
3. Iran will not hit their country limit due to high AP rate. In DV13, Iran can hit their country limit because it has 6k out of 16k selectees but in DV14, it has 23k selectees so when AP returned back to pool might be use for others.
4. After 15k case #, it might only have 300 selectees per 1000 case # with the assumption of the selection will ignore any Iran and Nepal after both country has reached 6k+ selectees.

Other predictions or ideas are welcome.

I think I could come up with calculations that are more in line with your previous figures, before you made a correction. I just finished them yesterday night and was going to post them anyway. I think I found a way to minimize the influence of Sloner effect.
The idea is I do not take into account Issued or AP or whatever, I take into account only all cases registered with KCC in 2014. Then I apply visas/total rates shown for DV-13. So I come up with the rank numbers where ~3500 visas are going to be reached for Iran and Nepal. Then I estimate how many visas will be issued for the rest of Asia (for Asian quota minus 7000 for 2 countries).
More details will follow.

 

[Kayend]

I think I could come up with calculations that are more in line with your previous figures, before you made a correction. I just finished them yesterday night and was going to post them anyway. I think I found a way to minimize the influence of Sloner effect.
The idea is I do not take into account Issued or AP or whatever, I take into account only all cases registered with KCC in 2014. Then I apply visas/total rates shown for DV-13. So I come up with the rank numbers where ~3500 visas are going to be reached for Iran and Nepal. Then I estimate how many visas will be issued for the rest of Asia (for Asian quota minus 7000 for 2 countries).
More details will follow.

If you look at the distribution of Iran and Nepal case # up to 3700 case # in CEAC, it is about 40% Nepal, 40% Iran and 20% Rest of Asia but the selectees shares is 25% Nepal, 25% Iran and 50% Rest of Asia. So with this info, if applied the same distribution across all the case #, Nepal and Iran will run until 15k if both countries still not hitting their limit by then and the rest of Asia might only have 3000 selectees get their interview up to 15k (if all selectees applied in the first 3000 selectees). This is all about timing right now, if the clearing of AP cases is not fast enough which is with the ratio of 40% to visa issued then others waiting in line will get their visa. Let assume 50% AP clearing rate, that would mean it need 15k case # to cover 6750 visa issued. So if the regional quota is 9k, it still have 2250 which might push the case # slightly above 20k. This recalculation is assuming Iran will not hit their country limit by end of fiscal year. Remember, in DV13, a lot of AP being clear in the final month, I am not sure whether the final month they still have much visa left for them to repeat what they did in DV13.

 

[kaluman]

Does kcc send red flag in folder by observing previous year dv entrant form which are not selected?

 

[Britsimon]

Does kcc send red flag in folder by observing previous year dv entrant form which are not selected?

Generally not, unless the details on the previous entry have created a suspicion of fraud on this years entry (if you had lied about something). Assuming that wasn't the case, then no, a previous unselected entry doesn't affect this year.