Britsimon
Super Moderator
brilliant!
DV14 Asia Prediction - Discussion (Using CEAC data)
- Thread starter Kayend
- Start date
brilliant!
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
May the power be with us lol 
AP was also high for Iran (and some other countries) in DV-13. However, by the very end of the year they speeded up AP processing - and at the end of August - beginning of September shrunk AP cases. That is going to happen this year as well, I believe. It is possible that visas for Nepal will become unavailable chronologically before they become unavailable to Iran this year. But I think that will happen by setting up special cutoff for Iran lower that for Nepal. So, I am not sure if Nepal is going to have special cutoff or will have just AS cutoff. But I think Iran will have a special cutoff lower than that. That way Nepal could exhaust it's visas before Iran, and for Iran that could happen late September again, when AP cases are processed.
Kayend
Active Member
if you look at the distribution of selectees, it about 40% of Nepal, 40% of Iran and 20% the rest of Asia. So if only have one country in special cut off, it will not speed thing up. The progress is the same because either Nepal or Iran is slowing Asia progress with his 40% selectees. Unless the special cut off is not to speed up the progress of issuing visa. I think they either do it for both countries or none of them. If no special cut off, Asia might not able to meet their regional quota.
I personally think why now they still don't do any special cut off is because they might trying to find the right timing for special cut off for both countries. Yes, in DV13 Iran clearing a lot of AP cases in Sept and they able to do that because no other selectees compete for it, so in DV14 I think regional quota might be exhausted by Aug time frame.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
At the last 3 months of the dv lottery (july,aug,sep) does kcc process more cases?
Or do they still carry with the same pace ?
I think the reason for special cutoff for Iran is the following. Without special cutoff those cases which are on AP after the interview will not prevent new interviews with high numbers. I am talking about Iran only. So, there is a huge backlog in AP, and new interviews will still be coming. That would potentially create a problem when new cases with higher numbers will get visas without AP and pass cases on AP. That positive solution on AP would still be denied in KCC because of quota exhaustion. That would mean unnecessary work that they would try to prevent. Unless they lkimited the number of winners to be right enough to fill the quota.
They processed more cases in August-September in DV-13. I remember on 9/30 they had 400 visas issued. If you assume there are 250 business days in the year, with that paste throughout the year they would have issued 100,000 visas in DV-13. And I think the reason is huge amount of approved APs in August and September.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah I noticed that 9/30 phenomenon also. It seems they are either letting people sweat until the last possible moment (which would be cruel) or they suddenly abandon their "necessary procedures and checks" to be kind to the folks on AP (which would be reckless). I can't decide which one I believe....
Or they could press FBI to switch to DV cases from other cases by the end of fiscal year, to flush the queue. That would be fair - there is not a huge volume of DV cases at the beginning of next year. So that is the time when FBI could get back to other cases.
Kayend
Active Member
To avoid unnecessary workload for AP cases sound right for me too as the reason for special cut off. If that really happen, Nepal might hit the country limit sooner and that also indirectly speed up the rest of Asia.
Did you see my analysis on the first page that shows average AP time for Iran is about 40 days?
CDF function for Asia is smooth this year, not the same as in DV-13. There is no lower break. That means there is no Sloner effect in DV-14.
It could be 40 days now. I believe AP could take much longer, and I think if you repeat you calculations in a month, it would be longer. AP cases tend to accumulate thoughout the year. And they release a lot of them late in the year. I believe they are 120 days or even more, and even all cases go to AP, you would still get only 60 days in average (120 days from 10/1 to 1/1, divided by 2)OK. I did some analysis to get an idea of how long the AP for Iranian cases take. Short answer: 40 days ballpark.
The details follow:
Assumption 1) If the case is in 'YRV' or 'ANK' but has an AS number, almost certainly it's an Iran case. (this excludes Iran cases in Abu Dhabi, but that doesn't significantly impact the analysis)
Assumption 2) I came up with an Expected Interview Date for each case.
I first found the "current" month for each case. Then assumed an interview date at the middle of the "current" month (as an average). I'll spare some minor details there.
Assumption 3) If the case is 'Issued', the difference between Last Update Date and the Expected Interview Date is how long it took the cases to be approved (or Approval Time). If the case is 'AP', this difference is how long the case has been on AP (or AP Wait Time).
Iran cases in 'ANK' and 'YRV' are:
'Issued': 75 rows
'AP': 116 rows
'Ready': 173 rows
Notice that some of the 'Issued' cases could have been 'AP' cases that were resolved. So they are a mix of 'Immediate Approval' and 'AP'.
As time goes, cases fall off from 'AP' into 'Issued', but new cases will be added to 'AP'. So the on-going average of the 'AP Wait Time' (from above) should indicate how long cases stay on 'AP'. The average came out at 42 days.
Now for cross-checking, I looked at it from a different angle. For 'Issued' cases, I assumed that if the 'Approval Time' was longer than 15 days, then the case had to be on 'AP'. Using that assumption I could further break the 75 'Issued' cases into: 15 'Immediate Approval' and 60 'Formerly on AP'.
I took the average approval time for the 'Formerly on AP'. Lo and behold, the average came out at 40 days! Nice cross-check there I'd say.
Let me know if you need more help to make sense of it.
Not following that part. Could you elaborate?
Kayend
Active Member
If CDF function applied in DV14 then it make sense to have special cut off in order to make sure the DV lottery is a fair system.
Let's assume ALL cases go to AP, no visas are issued, no visas are refused, nothing is in other statuses. Let's assume no AP cases are processed further. They stay as AP.
Then by 1/1 you would have average AP time 90 days, and by 9/30 - 360 days.
What I am saying is AP tend to stay in AP status for long, and you cannot notice that only after 3 months.
Regarding 120 I made a mistake, it should be 90 (from 10/1 to 1/1). But if cases originate at different times, average AP time would be half of that amount, 45. Imagine half of cases exist for 90 days, and half for 0 days.
I guess you meant Max(AP) would be 90 days by 1/1.
Agreed.
I guess what you're getting at is that by 1/1 Max(AP) is 90 days, by 2/1 it is 120, etc. and as the Max increases it potentially drags the Avg upward as well. I agree with that. But the Avg depends on the dispersion as well, not just upper bound of the range.
But I see your point. We will have to do the analysis I did in a couple of months to see if the average stays at about 40 days or will be more or less close to Max/2.
Right. Only when the AP time stops increasing month-to-month it would mean your method caught it correctly.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
ok guys being from Nepal i want you to clarify a matter that is less discussed here... i have already said that what we have done of Nepali dv winner is that we had made a group on FB and have a good number of winners as a member this is the phenomenon of case i had already discussed here and what was surprising with the case number present in the group is number below 5k are dense and between 5k to 9k we have not so much cases but if we move from 9k to 14k there are almost 60% percent of members are present of that range and after that upto 22k we have members in group but density is very low over there so i assume that we may get good increase of 2k in a month or 1500 for two months in case of asia in some point of time in between march to july....and matter about the special cutoff for Nepal maynot come in between 5k to 9k but after 9k it may come but for now i donot see they will put special cuttoff for Nepal and a very important point we are missing is high sucess rate of Nepal and high AP cases of IRAN this might be two reason why still there is no special cutoff even due to Nepal there is a lag in vb but main thing is good sucess rate helps KCC to fill the quota of asia easily and without less load so still there is no any special cutoff for asia as in Nepal ap case and refusal is very low reducing workload of embassy and by which they can interview more number of selectee..
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