DOS disqualifying much entries coming from one ip.Thats why we see so many agents submitting over 1000 entries from one ip on different people.It is not because they submits double entries but differents agents using one or two cyber cafe ip to register over 2000 to 3000 entries on differents people and DOS will not disclose these so that they could have it to disqualify more entries in coming year of DV programs.Its a new way to reduce applicants it wasnt like this before and also they disqualify applicants using thesame old photo or thesame old details apart from your NAME,DOB COUNTRY OF BIRTH,POB.Apart from these details if use thesame old postal addr,email or file name,you gets disqualify,thats why you always see most first timer being most of the winners in every DV programs.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
DV Lottery 2012 July 15th statistical breakdown
- Thread starter Mele
- Start date
ip address is not used to disqualify, the same as name, pob, country of birth.
DOB is different. In combination with photo it is used for face recognition. Consul will get info for all possible duplicates (when DOB is the same and picture looks very close).
Consul might also get info that a large company submitted on your behalf. For more information, that is not a disqualifying factor
DOB is different. In combination with photo it is used for face recognition. Consul will get info for all possible duplicates (when DOB is the same and picture looks very close).
Consul might also get info that a large company submitted on your behalf. For more information, that is not a disqualifying factor
generally it looks like numbers 1 through 31000 are EU numbers. 32000 through 45000 AS numbers (about 15000) e t.c.
Very logical. Few exceptions could be because of differences between country of birth and country of chargeability. The case AS3753 could be explained as the primary applicant born in EU but took chargeability from AS (by spouse or parent). That is why his number 3753 got AS letters in the end. The same for AS15893. Or vice versa. It could be they are chargeable to Europe, but country of birth is AS (it would be logical to change chargeability from AS to EU, but not from EU to AS), probability to win was higher for Europe than for Asia.
Very logical. Few exceptions could be because of differences between country of birth and country of chargeability. The case AS3753 could be explained as the primary applicant born in EU but took chargeability from AS (by spouse or parent). That is why his number 3753 got AS letters in the end. The same for AS15893. Or vice versa. It could be they are chargeable to Europe, but country of birth is AS (it would be logical to change chargeability from AS to EU, but not from EU to AS), probability to win was higher for Europe than for Asia.
Data from Russian forum for EU (totally 56 cases)
0***
09**
1***
20**
2***
2***
2***
29**
3***
3***
3***
35**
4***
4***
5***
5***
6***
7***
7***
7***
8***
9***
10***
10***
10***
108**
11***
11***
12***
17***
17***
19***
20***
20***
20***
20***
216**
22***
22***
22***
23***
23***
23***
24***
25***
25***
25***
26***
26***
273**
29***
309**
31***
31***
31***
31***
------------------
56
------------------------- counts for every 1000 (histogramm)
MIN MAX Between
0 999 2
1000 1999 1
2000 2999 5
3000 3999 4
4000 4999 2
5000 5999 2
6000 6999 1
7000 7999 3
8000 8999 1
9000 9999 1
10000 10999 4
11000 11999 2
12000 12999 1
13000 13999 0
14000 14999 0
15000 15999 0
16000 16999 0
17000 17999 2
18000 18999 0
19000 19999 1
20000 20999 4
21000 21999 1
22000 22999 3
23000 23999 3
24000 24999 1
25000 25999 3
26000 26999 2
27000 27999 1
28000 28999 0
29000 29999 1
30000 30999 1
31000 31999 4
32000 32999 0
33000 33999 0
34000 34999 0
35000 35999 0
36000 36999 0
0***
09**
1***
20**
2***
2***
2***
29**
3***
3***
3***
35**
4***
4***
5***
5***
6***
7***
7***
7***
8***
9***
10***
10***
10***
108**
11***
11***
12***
17***
17***
19***
20***
20***
20***
20***
216**
22***
22***
22***
23***
23***
23***
24***
25***
25***
25***
26***
26***
273**
29***
309**
31***
31***
31***
31***
------------------
56
------------------------- counts for every 1000 (histogramm)
MIN MAX Between
0 999 2
1000 1999 1
2000 2999 5
3000 3999 4
4000 4999 2
5000 5999 2
6000 6999 1
7000 7999 3
8000 8999 1
9000 9999 1
10000 10999 4
11000 11999 2
12000 12999 1
13000 13999 0
14000 14999 0
15000 15999 0
16000 16999 0
17000 17999 2
18000 18999 0
19000 19999 1
20000 20999 4
21000 21999 1
22000 22999 3
23000 23999 3
24000 24999 1
25000 25999 3
26000 26999 2
27000 27999 1
28000 28999 0
29000 29999 1
30000 30999 1
31000 31999 4
32000 32999 0
33000 33999 0
34000 34999 0
35000 35999 0
36000 36999 0
Sympli Dusty
Registered Users (C)
Does anyone know if DOS numbers of total winners per country include derivatives? Or it is just principal applicants?
chi squared criteria with confidence level 5% shows that if the values are distributed from 1 to 41000 the hypothesis still should not be rejected (same for 1 - 40000, 1-39000, 1-38000, 1-37000, 1-36000, 1-35000, 1-34000, 1-33000, 1-32000). But for 1-42000 or 1-43000 it should be rejected. So my model for EU shows 53000 that could not be the case (more than about 41000 is not possible).
Last edited by a moderator:
Actually, I got it.
If I decrease the number for Ukraine from 71% to 50%, but leave the first iteration for Ukraine only (and do not count the rest; just remove those figures from final numbers) I will get exactly 5800 for Ukraine, and 40000 CNs overall. And I am not changing anything for Uzbekistan or any other country.
If I also decrease Uzbekistan level to 10%, and leave the first iteration only, it will be 4800 for Uzbekistan. But it would affect other countries a little bit.
Also, if I set first pick to be 36000, not 30980, and then through out all Ukraine or Uzbekistan except the first iteration, then I would get about 43000 CNs with about correct all other countries.
Also, why would it have 2 different quotas for Ukraine and Uzbekistan, not just one?
Yes, that is possible. However, that type of thing contradicts the major principle - equal probability for all countries within a region.
It all reminds me a kid's problem.
Father dies, and leaved 17 camels to his 3 sons. His will is the following:
first son gets 1/2
second son gets 1/3
third son gets 1/9
They do not know how to divide 17 camels, and ask a passer by who is traveling on a camel.
He solves their problem easily. he gives them his camel (18th).
then first son gets 9, second 6, third 2, totally 17, and the remaining camel leaves with the passer by.
If I decrease the number for Ukraine from 71% to 50%, but leave the first iteration for Ukraine only (and do not count the rest; just remove those figures from final numbers) I will get exactly 5800 for Ukraine, and 40000 CNs overall. And I am not changing anything for Uzbekistan or any other country.
If I also decrease Uzbekistan level to 10%, and leave the first iteration only, it will be 4800 for Uzbekistan. But it would affect other countries a little bit.
Also, if I set first pick to be 36000, not 30980, and then through out all Ukraine or Uzbekistan except the first iteration, then I would get about 43000 CNs with about correct all other countries.
Also, why would it have 2 different quotas for Ukraine and Uzbekistan, not just one?
Yes, that is possible. However, that type of thing contradicts the major principle - equal probability for all countries within a region.
It all reminds me a kid's problem.
Father dies, and leaved 17 camels to his 3 sons. His will is the following:
first son gets 1/2
second son gets 1/3
third son gets 1/9
They do not know how to divide 17 camels, and ask a passer by who is traveling on a camel.
He solves their problem easily. he gives them his camel (18th).
then first son gets 9, second 6, third 2, totally 17, and the remaining camel leaves with the passer by.
Last edited by a moderator:
----Also, why would it have 2 different quotas for Ukraine and Uzbekistan, not just one?
Yes, that is possible. However, that type of thing contradicts the major principle - equal probability for all countries within a region.
http://fpc.state.gov/148253.htm
Now, within that region, any applicant, irrespective of the country in that region, has an equal chance of being selected from that regional pot in the lottery. But no country in any region in anywhere in the world can receive more than 7 percent of the annual total, which is three and a half thousand. So the very largely subscribed countries – Nigeria, Bangladesh, et cetera, Ethiopia – routinely cap out on that three thousand – three and a half thousand. Okay?
----
He mentioned 3500 limit in the context of selection process. Sounds like winning chances of some countries are different from others because of 3500 limitation of visa issuance. He does not have to mention 7% rule in this context if winning chance of all countries in a single region is equal. In addition, demand and/or success rate of DV2011 Uzbekistan was supposed to be higher than Ukraine since DV2011 visa bulletin says Uzbekistan got Unavailable very early, suggesting 5091 selectees in DV2011 was too many for Uzbekistan.
Last edited by a moderator:
@Raevsky am not saying that DOS uses ip to disqualify applicant but to say that in africa,especially Nigeria where you agents everywhere applying DV for people evrey year WITH DIFFERENT PHOTO ON DIFFERENT PEOPLE.I think there is a criteria DOs use to more of that cos i know what am saying.You talking almost the same photo or DOB,have you forgotten that there twins identity in this kind of situation,so are you saying DOS would disqualify identical twin simply because the identity or similar DOB but not thesame DOS will now disqualify the entry,all these are just ways of reducing entries,wish you were in Nigeria to see things yourself,there is nothing another company using your own datas to register for you while you have applied.They dont that like that in Nigeria cos Nigerians are smart people to know the meaning of double entries.In Nigeria about 48% wants to travel out and these people entered DV programs every year.I help people to apply every year with DIFFERENT PHOTOS ON DIFFERENT PEOPLE.Last year i entered over 273 entries from one ip but none win,and you are talking of similar photos or similar DOB.My Brother come to Nigeria and see how things work?there are immigration expert who into these that knows more.DOS have there own criteria whether you like it or not
Sympli Dusty
Registered Users (C)
What I don't understand is why people using someone else’s help to enter DV lottery. I see whole bunch of shady websites wanting money to enter the lottery as well as many companies in Eastern Europe and apparently in Africa offering their services to fill out E-DV application. What's up with that? Why would someone use those guys, they have a lot higher chance to screw things up, like use wrong photo or mess up your personal details.
I am talking about a different thing - when agents are applying for the same person year from year with the same picture (old one)@Raevsky am not saying that DOS uses ip to disqualify applicant but to say that in africa,especially Nigeria where you agents everywhere applying DV for people evrey year WITH DIFFERENT PHOTO ON DIFFERENT PEOPLE
twins are not automatically disqualifies. Only those entries when the picture coincides as file. If file is different, but person looks same, the case goes to consulate, but consul knows about the possible duplicate entry. If you have a twin, you need to prove that..I think there is a criteria DOs use to more of that cos i know what am saying.You talking almost the same photo or DOB,have you forgotten that there twins identity in this kind of situation,so are you saying DOS would disqualify identical twin simply because the identity or similar DOB but not thesame DOS will now disqualify the entry,
maybe a number of those 273 were submitted with the same photoes via different agents, how do you know?all these are just ways of reducing entries,wish you were in Nigeria to see things yourself,there is nothing another company using your own datas to register for you while you have applied.They dont that like that in Nigeria cos Nigerians are smart people to know the meaning of double entries.In Nigeria about 48% wants to travel out and these people entered DV programs every year.I help people to apply every year with DIFFERENT PHOTOS ON DIFFERENT PEOPLE.Last year i entered over 273 entries from one ip but none win,and you are talking of similar photos or similar DOB.My Brother come to Nigeria and see how things work?there are immigration expert who into these that knows more.DOS have there own criteria whether you like it or not
@Raevsky i personally entered last year DV progrom 273 applicants which none wins with different photos of applicants.I talked about identical twins,yes i have two identical twins like that.In Nigeria about 45 to 47% of wants to travel out and these people sees DV program as an ulternative while still processing their visa in another embassy.I can feel your statistic and breakdown of DV winners per region.
Did you take their pictures yourself?@Raevsky i personally entered last year DV progrom 273 applicants which none wins with different photos of applicants
How do you know those pictures were not used in other entries?
Identical twins are OK as long you can prove to consul those entries were entered by twins.I talked about identical twins,yes i have two identical twins like that.In Nigeria about 45 to 47% of wants to travel out and these people sees DV program as an ulternative while still processing their visa in another embassy.I can feel your statistic and breakdown of DV winners per region.
Different pictures of the same person are not disqualifying from intervew.
Probability to win is 0.84%, so out of 273 applicants I would expect a couple of winners. However, it is not very unlikely that there are 0 winners. It is about 10% probability that none of them would win out of 273. Even if their documents are OK.
Different pictures of the same person are not disqualifying from intervew.
.
I think different picture of thesame person will be disqualified if not initially, but when they are manually screening the 100selectees. The photo recognition software will actually match this together & kCC fraud detector could think the person registered with little diff bio-data to increase chance.
Incase of twins, their middle name will definitely be diff & mayb education but its kinda hard for twins not 2b mistaking for double entry becos both pics & bio data match 95%.
I know KCC wud have giv it a taught but knowing fully well that it can aid fraud (double entry by single applicants), so they didn’t gave consideration to that twin issue considering dfact that twin entrants can’t up to a dime of d whole applicants..
Consider this:
- if i register twice, submitting two diff background passport of myself @ diff time interval; DOB, Country postal address all thesame.
- Last name, first name all thesame & in my middlename i use only an initial.. mayb A(which fit in 4my real middlename).
That means i cud simply claim to DOS that am a twin......hav u ceen dat it’ll be likely flagged as fraud/double entry with little tricks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
KCC officers do not have the power of adjudicating, that is why only consul could disqualify the entry if KCC is not absolutely certain this is a duplicate. So, KCC sends to the consulate the info about all possible other entrants who have similar photo, and the consul makes a decisionI think different picture of thesame person will be disqualified if not initially, but when they are manually screening the 100selectees. The photo recognition software will actually match this together & kCC fraud detector could think the person registered with little diff bio-data to increase chance.
For twins everything except the name could be exactly the same. Sometimes even the name is the same. I know two brothers (not twins though) who have the same name. Anyway, consul would get both photos, and the applicant will have to prove he has a twin.Incase of twins, their middle name will definitely be diff & mayb education but its kinda hard for twins not 2b mistaking for double entry becos both pics & bio data match 95%.
KCC cannot have a policy that disqualifis twins on a routine basis. That is illegal.I know KCC wud have giv it a taught but knowing fully well that it can aid fraud (double entry by single applicants), so they didn’t gave consideration to that twin issue considering dfact that twin entrants can’t up to a dime of d whole applicants..
Consul will need a real proof you have a twin.Consider this:
- if i register twice, submitting two diff background passport of myself @ diff time interval; DOB, Country postal address all thesame.
- Last name, first name all thesame & in my middlename i use only an initial.. mayb A(which fit in 4my real middlename).
That means i cud simply claim to DOS that am a twin......hav u ceen dat it’ll be likely flagged as fraud/double entry with little tricks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You will have to produce birth certificate of your self and of your twin and show it to the consul. Also, consul will require a single photo where both of you are together. Or he will ask both of twins to come for the interview together.