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DV Lottery 2012 July 15th statistical breakdown

M

Mele

Registered Users (C)
The following is the statistical breakdown of those registered for the DV-2012 program.....check ur country breakdown @ http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html

Despite the DV2012 2nd draw Low Selection witnessed in Africa, DOS still claims:
NIGERIA 6,024
GHANA 5,832
ETHIOPIA 4,902
EGYPT 4,664

Despite the fact that the 1st notification letter of DV2012 is online, less than 10 winners of DV2012 from Nigeria are on this forum. DOS claims 6,042 Nigerians are selected. That's just a damn cooked lie(s)!!!!!!!!Going to a month since the result were published.Where r the HUGE Africa winners???unlike b4..............
 
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Shivaji1 said:
Hi Mele, is that registered number include both applicant and derivatives
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The info says: Applicants registered for the DV-2012 program were selected at random from 14,768,658 qualified entries (19,672,268 with derivatives) received during the 30-day application period that ran from noon on October 5, 2010, until noon, November 3, 2010. Approximately 100,021 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa.


In addition, if it’s with derivatives, what about newly born children or spouse who just got married AFTER the dv lottery submission period.

So its only APPLICANTS NOT DERIVATIVES.
 
Mele, if is does not include derivatives, then why don't we see number like AS100000 or AF100000 and so on. I heard that CN number are unique to the number too. For example there can't be AS33000 and AF33000. If it is so we should have seen CN number as 100,0** too. I think those registered number includes derivatives too. Of course new born and new spouse are not included here. They could be added latter...
 
@Mele dont mind DOS about the figures they claims to give Nigeria?winners from Nigeria are not up to that figure?dont believ that.DOS has just mess up and loose there trust.
 
Shivaji1 said:
Mele, if is does not include derivatives, then why don't we see number like AS100000 or AF100000 and so on. I heard that CN number are unique to the number too. For example there can't be AS33000 and AF33000. If it is so we should have seen CN number as 100,0** too. I think those registered number includes derivatives too. Of course new born and new spouse are not included here. They could be added latter...
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Where is EYW979 ???, what is your opnion about registered 100021 number??
 
Shivaji1 said:
Where is EYW979 ???, what is your opnion about registered 100021 number??
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I am her Shivaji this is something expected always there are around 100000 winners but not all of them eligible and they can`t provide the all the documents required i heard that last year the total visa granted was 40000, so don`t worry too much
 
EYW979 said:
I am her Shivaji this is something expected always there are around 100000 winners but not all of them eligible and they can`t provide the all the documents required i heard that last year the total visa granted was 40000, so don`t worry too much
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Then why we are not seeing anybody with case number as 100000. That means CN are not unique in number. There could be AS3000 and AF3000 at the same time, right??
 
You should see maximum numbers for Asia about 15,000, for Africa about 50,000, for Europe about 31,000. Thise numbers include derivatives
 
Something does not make sense. There were many people with AS numbers above 50K. Have you calculated them based on winners per country?
 
raevsky said:
You should see maximum numbers for Asia about 15,000, for Africa about 50,000, for Europe about 31,000. Thise numbers include derivatives
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It doesn't work that way. Those allocation are mixed randomly. For example first 10000 CN includes 5000 from AF, 1500 AS, 3100 EU and 400 from OC, NA and SA (randomly mixed).
 
For example first 10000 CN includes 5000 from AF, 1500 AS, 3100 EU and 400 from OC, NA and SA (randomly mixed).
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What is the maximum number reported on the forum throughout all regions?
Results do not look random because for Europe they are all below about 31000 (and we have right about 31000 winners from Europe)
It does not matter if it is May 1 results or July 15 results. Numbering schema should be the same.
It would be nice if somebody collects numbers reported from other regions (just the numbers)
 
raevsky said:
What is the maximum number reported on the forum throughout all regions?
Results do not look random because for Europe they are all below about 31000 (and we have right about 31000 winners from Europe)
It does not matter if it is May 1 results or July 15 results. Numbering schema should be the same.
It would be nice if somebody collects numbers reported from other regions (just the numbers)
Click to expand...


So far, I have seen CN as low as AS5*** to AS71*** for my country. The highest CN I have seen till date is AF88***...
 
This is all extremely strange because I have seen EU only up to 31000. I saw about 40 EU wins, and the highest was 309xx (who reads Russian they are listed at http://www.govorimpro.us/showthread.php?t=30909&page=1 , who does not read Russian could still see case numbers, they are easily identifiable in the thread). This corresponds to the amount of wins from EU (just a few wins below 31000).
Can it be that there only very few wins in AF higher than 50000 (possibly all reported by mistake of the reporter)?
Can it be that there only very few wins in AS higher than 15000 (possibly all reported by mistake of the reporter)?

How many AS wins did you see? How many of them higher than 15000?
How many AF wins did you see? How many of them higher than 50000?
 
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It looks like the numbers are really intermixed between regions. One AS number is really low, below 4000.
It could be that numbers are going in the increased order according to country of birth. From 1 fo N1 - Europe, from N1+1 to N2 - Asia e t.c.
And later letters are assigned according to native country that could be different from country of birth. That could be why a small AS number is among EU numbers.

generally it looks like numbers 1 through 31000 are EU numbers. 32000 through 45000 AS numbers (about 15000) e t.c.
Very logical. Few exceptions could be because of differences between country of birth and country of chargeability. The case AS3753 could be explained as the primary applicant born in EU but took chargeability from AS (by spouse or parent). That is why his number 3753 got AS letters in the end. The same for AS15893. Or vice versa. It could be they are chargeable to Europe, but country of birth is AS (it would be logical to change chargeability from AS to EU, but not from EU to AS), probability to win was higher for Europe than for Asia.
Dig for cross-region chargeable cases from forums for checking the idea.
That would be in line with the idea that each number corresponds to a person, not a case.
That would also mean that if case 1 corresponds to a family of 4 people and gets number 1 (country of birth EU, letters are assigned later, according to country of chargeability), numbers 2,3 and 4 will not be allocated, the next allocated number will be 5 (country of birth EU, letters are assigned later, according to country of chargeability)
 
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