Hi! First of all I would like to thank everybody who is helping others on this forum (especially Sm1smom) - you are doing an awesome job which provides extremely valuable transparency and statistics to somewhat tricky process.
I've looked through almost all the materials provided here and in Simon's Blog and decided that the provided information is more then enough to file myself. We are a family of 4 currently staying in US legally on L1/L2 status, our case number is 2024EU00031XXX. We decided to go with AOS. According to the latest estimates by Simon we have a good chance becoming current - his estimate was a range of 31000-42000. My feeling that this will happen around August-September, so with early filing in mind we can expect the lockbox delivery date for us to be around June.
However there is only one concern I currently have - looks like there is a high chance to be denied due to visa exhaustion. And with total fees being ~$8000 for the family of 4 that becomes somewhat a gamble. It would be great to estimate the chances of failure more precisely.
I've done a quick research of the data for previous years for the EU region (see below) and looks like the month of June is somewhat the boundary to get the successful application.
For 2023 looks like all 3 people who had CN Current Month of July and CN ~30000 got denied due to Visa exhaustion
- The lockbox delivery date for all of them was in July, looks like they did not use early filing.
For 2021 and 2020 almost all people having CN >30000 got approved due to CN getting current in June
- For lots of them lockbox delivery date is in May - indicates early filing.
For 2019 and 2018 there were no cases >30000, almost all users got approved, latest getting current in June
For 2019 and 2018 there were no cases >30000, almost all users got approved, latest getting current in May
For 2015 and 2014 there were lots of cases >30000 being approved, even those who got current in August
- For lots of them lockbox delivery date was earlier than current month - indicates early filing.
I would really appreciate if somebody could help me with an advice of following questions:
1. How can I better estimate the chances of visa exhaustion for our case? I currently feel that chances are around 50% and are willing to take the risk. However if there is some info I'm missing which decreses the chances to say 10% only - I'd rather do not bother because we also have a employer-related PERM process ongoing.
2. Is there any way to minimize the chances of visa exhaustion by taking some particular actions apart of early filing - e.g. constantly pinging the Immigration Officer?
3. Is there any professional consultant or agency who can help with items 1 and 2 - for the reward of cause?