DV 2022 All Selectees (Consular Processing - CP)

[Sm1smom]

Thanks for your answer.

So they let win about 119,021 case numbers and with a rough average each case number has 2 visas to be issued.
This means that only (or less) than 1 person out of 5 winners really gets the Green Card ? I knew that winning the diversity visa doesn't guarantee that green card will be issued, but I didn't figured it out that a winner has only 20% of probability to get a green card.

Am I wrong ?

I'm sorry I don't do "probability".

In general, they over select each year for several reasons, some of which may include: some selectees not meeting the DV requirements (educationally or via work experience); some may have had a change of heart and decided to not proceed with their selection; some being disqualified due to wrong chargeability country, or fake papers, or currently facing some sort of ban from the US, or for not listing eligible dependents, or for listing non-eligible dependents; some may not pass the background check (remain stuck in AP); some may not pass the medical exam, etc. Myriads of reasons for over-selecting each year.

 

[Butters]

Thanks for your answer.

So they let win about 119,021 case numbers and with a rough average each case number has 2 visas to be issued.
This means that only (or less) than 1 person out of 5 winners really gets the Green Card ? I knew that winning the diversity visa doesn't guarantee that green card will be issued, but I didn't figured it out that a winner has only 20% of probability to get a green card.

Am I wrong ?

Wrong. The 119,021 number is the main aplicant + derivatives. It's not case numbers. The people/case is roughly 2 (actually between 1.6-1.9). So, that's about 60,000 case numbers out there.

There's 54850 visas available. That's main applicant + derivatives. Soz roughly 27425 cases.

So, they roughly overselect by a factor two. Use a calculator for the precise number. It's not the 20% mentioned.

Imagine a football team. They usually bring a substitute for every player. 4 substitutes for every player would be stupid.

 

[Butters]

Also, don't feel bad for falling for this.

I remember, there's plenty of "immigration lawyers" in my country who offer "consultations".

I remember, one prominent one, released a video on the results day on YouTube and actually said they choose 6000 for the specific country and the 7% cap means 3850 visas available. The 6000 is case numbers and the average people/case is 3-4. So, considering some may not continue with the peocess, it brings 15,000-18,000 people competing for 3850 visas. And he said, people should make a consultation with him and he'll make sure they get it. The guy makes 2500 dollars per case. And apparently his agency is known for trashing ds260s with mistakes in how they fill it. Honestly, I think he did actually believe what he was saying was the truth.

So, don't feel bad for not understanding the number, it happens. It's common.

 

[Andrea_C]

Wrong. The 119,021 number is the main aplicant + derivatives. It's not case numbers. The people/case is roughly 2 (actually between 1.6-1.9). So, that's about 60,000 case numbers out there.

There's 54850 visas available. That's main applicant + derivatives. Soz roughly 27425 cases.

So, they roughly overselect by a factor two. Use a calculator for the precise number. It's not the 20% mentioned.

Imagine a football team. They usually bring a substitute for every player. 4 substitutes for every player would be stupid.

I am sorry if I insist, but I am just asking in order to have it clear.


I don't fit in with what you said, here's why:
- "For the DV-2022 Program, 119,021 entrants were selected" --> This is a data that came from the very first day of the selection for DV2022, so ahead of any DS-260 was submitted à So, nobody could know how many derivates each case has.
- Each winner can modify its social state and add wife/husband, children and so on à somebody could add just a partner (+1) somebody could add partner and kids (+3,+4) so let’s say an average of 2 visa per case number à about 240.000 visas

- Normally case numbers are served in order, so assuming that first case numbers add a lot of derivates, it is harder to get into the 55k limit for people with higher case number.

- 55.000 out of 240.000 is almost 0.23% of getting visa after winning the green card lottery.

I am not criticizing the system, I'm just surprised to find out that it is more probably not to get the green card after winning the lottery than getting it

 

[Butters]

I am sorry if I insist, but I am just asking in order to have it clear.


I don't fit in with what you said, here's why:
- "For the DV-2022 Program, 119,021 entrants were selected" --> This is a data that came from the very first day of the selection for DV2022, so ahead of any DS-260 was submitted à So, nobody could know how many derivates each case has.
- Each winner can modify its social state and add wife/husband, children and so on à somebody could add just a partner (+1) somebody could add partner and kids (+3,+4) so let’s say an average of 2 visa per case number à about 240.000 visas

- Normally case numbers are served in order, so assuming that first case numbers add a lot of derivates, it is harder to get into the 55k limit for people with higher case number.

- 55.000 out of 240.000 is almost 0.23% of getting visa after winning the green card lottery.

I am not criticizing the system, I'm just surprised to find out that it is more probably not to get the green card after winning the lottery than getting it

I don't know what your question is. You didn't ask a question.

As I mentioned the 119,000 includes main applicants and their derivatives.

The 240,000 for 55000 is wrong. If you wanna believe there's 119,000 case numbers and 240,000 people competing for 55000 visas, feel free to do so.

Is it right that they should select 240,000 people for 55000 visas. I agree, it's pretty stupid. A smart one would choose about 100,000 people for the 55000 visas.

 

[Fr4n322]

Andrea, you also have to look up some of the statistics for this year and how far along we are now into the fiscal year with a lot of sitting on hands so to speak, to date - with just over 2600 visas only processed as per the SaveDiversity website.

We'll be lucky to hit 25k issuances at an absolute push. (This is my opinion only)

 

[Sm1smom]

I don't fit in with what you said, here's why:
- "For the DV-2022 Program, 119,021 entrants were selected" --> This is a data that came from the very first day of the selection for DV2022, so ahead of any DS-260 was submitted à So, nobody could know how many derivates each case has.

The bolded part of the above statement is is not true. Entries are submitted with derivatives, it is not only after the DS260 gets submitted that they subsequently get an idea of how many derivatives each case may have. Limited number of selectees subsequently add new derivatives after their selection.

 

[ervaro]

You wait to be scheduled for an interview, assuming KCC is done processing your DS260 form and your embassy is also interviewing DV cases. When you get scheduled may also depend on how backed up your embassy may be by the way (even if they are interviewing DV cases).

Ok, thanks! My embassy is doing interviews, so I guess it is a matter of waiting from KCC to process my DS260 and change my status in CEAC website so I can schedule an interview, correct?

Thank you for your responses

 

[Sm1smom]

Ok, thanks! My embassy is doing interviews, so I guess it is a matter of waiting from KCC to process my DS260 and change my status in CEAC website so I can schedule an interview, correct?

Thank you for your responses

You don't schedule your interview. KCC schedules the interview.

 

[Andrea_C]

I don't know what your question is. You didn't ask a question.

As I mentioned the 119,000 includes main applicants and their derivatives.

The 240,000 for 55000 is wrong. If you wanna believe there's 119,000 case numbers and 240,000 people competing for 55000 visas, feel free to do so.

Is it right that they should select 240,000 people for 55000 visas. I agree, it's pretty stupid. A smart one would choose about 100,000 people for the 55000 visas.

If as you said 119,000 includes main and derivatives, why there are almost 130,000 case numbers (considering sum of all 5 regions) ?

Pleaase, correct me if I am wrong:
- Does each case number correspond to a winning entry ? so 130,00 case numbers means that there are 130,000 winning entry ? (this is already strange number compared to the 119,000 declared on a lot of websites)
- If the first question is correct, do we agree that derivatives have no case numbers but they figure in the main cases number ? so 130,000 case numbers can have more than 1 visa.

 

[Butters]

If as you said 119,000 includes main and derivatives, why there are almost 130,000 case numbers (considering sum of all 5 regions) ?

Pleaase, correct me if I am wrong:
- Does each case number correspond to a winning entry ? so 130,00 case numbers means that there are 130,000 winning entry ? (this is already strange number compared to the 119,000 declared on a lot of websites)
- If the first question is correct, do we agree that derivatives have no case numbers but they figure in the main cases number ? so 130,000 case numbers can have more than 1 visa.

There are not 130,000 real cases. Many are holes. So, 2022AS2 could be a hole. It's not real. Check BritSimon's video on YouTube on the whole theory.

Also, check xarthisius website. See the chart he's made of all the cases. You'll see for example 63% of all AS cases from 1-12k are holes. They're not real.

Also, read this forum and BritSimon website. It's all been explained. Check BritSimon's answers and also maybe mine. You'll get it.

 

[Andrea_C]

There are not 130,000 real cases. Many are holes. So, 2022AS2 could be a hole. It's not real. Check BritSimon's video on YouTube on the whole theory.

Also, check xarthisius website. See the chart he's made of all the cases. You'll see for example 63% of all AS cases from 1-12k are holes. They're not real.

Also, read this forum and BritSimon website. It's all been explained. Check BritSimon's answers and also maybe mine. You'll get it.

Thanks! I didn't know about this holes theory, I think this was the piece that I was missing to have the puzzle completed.

 

[Vicnic]

Hi guys! I apologize for the stupid question. If I got a new passport because mine expires in a month. Do I need to ask the KCC to unblock the DS-260 or is it better to just bring a new passport to the embassy. Sure, if I ever get an interview. (Embassy Warsaw, EU3***)

 

[Butters]

Hi guys! I apologize for the stupid question. If I got a new passport because mine expires in a month. Do I need to ask the KCC to unblock the DS-260 or is it better to just bring a new passport to the embassy. Sure, if I ever get an interview. (Embassy Warsaw, EU3***)

Don't. Take both to the interview. Especially since you're in Warsaw.

 

[MihailAngelov89]

I’m in a similar situation as you, only i have submitted my DS-260 in September. However, the date is probably not as important as to how complicated the DS-260 is. KCC surely have lost time in terms of processing but i believe they are catching up now. So we should be patient, and hope that they will process us real soon.
P.S. After the last VB has been published the case number is no longer relevant

 

[Vicnic]

Don't. Take both to the interview. Especially since you're in Warsaw.

Thank you so much!
I am sorry, I have one more question. How can I add my case to the dv lottery 2022 lawsuit or have I already missed all my deadlines? Please give me any advice

 

[TWI]

Hi,
CEAC has my case (OC5xx, current Jan) as “at NVC”.
I tried to unlock my DS260 so I could change my interview location from Sydney to London.
KCC said I’m ready so DS260 cannot be unlocked and I need to ask Sydney to transfer me.
Sydney said they need London to submit a formal request for my case to be transferred.
London has asked me to review the DV website and confirm “if you have been informed that your case is ready to be transferred and adjudicated”.

…could someone please advise me what that even means and how I would work that out/get it done

 

[Butters]

Thank you so much!
I am sorry, I have one more question. How can I add my case to the dv lottery 2022 lawsuit or have I already missed all my deadlines? Please give me any advice

Jesse's lawsuit is over for onboarding. He might have another lawsuit at some point. I don't think he has a plan for it and it's very unlikely

Immpact has been filed. I strongly believe they may make ammendments to their lawsuit. This would involve adding plaintiffs. There's a window that starts from when the government is served with the lawsuit. I'm not sure about the deadline. By mid-March perhaps.

You could simply email them and ask.

There's a strong possibility of a MorrisonUrena lawsuit after April. It's not a matter of certainty but I don't know, maybe he'll launch one giant lawsuit for dv22.

 

[Butters]

Also, for Immpact litigation I think they show the link in the video below. Go to where they put DV22 banner up and talk about it

 

[Badan]

Hey guys! I had my interview yesterday and the CO told me the visa was approved and that my passport should be ready next week. To my surprise I see the CEAC status change to Refused today. What’s curious is that today is Saturday, they don’t even work. What does this mean?

Just an update in case it could help anyone, they called me from the embassy and I found out that the reason behind temporary refusal was because they wanted my old passport to remove the B1/B2 visa from it before printing the immigrant visa. Which I had with me during the interview but they didn't ask for it although it's the passport I entered the lottery with. The status has been changed to "Issued" today. Good luck everyone!