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DV 2022 All Selectees (Consular Processing - CP)

ralu_de said:
Not yet, because the data will be out on 1st Jan 2022,so no info yet on holes.
You can see the number of selectees in the visa bulletin of August this year.
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Thank you for sharing! Just a had a look and I think @Butters is not correct, as far as I can see there are less selectees this year
 

LondonGeo​


Less compared to what? There are ~119,021 selectees this year and 55K visas are available.
DV2021 had a bit more selectees ~130K I think, but DV2020 had less than 90K selectees, 85K or something like this.
 
DV2020EU44 said:

LondonGeo​


Less compared to what? There are ~119,021 selectees this year and 55K visas are available.
DV2021 had a bit more selectees ~130K I think, but DV2020 had less than 90K selectees, 85K or something like this.
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Compared to DV21, which is what Butters was talking about I think in his initial comment.

One thing tho I've noticed is that the highest EU number seems to be lower in DV22 than other years
 
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DV2020EU44 said:

LondonGeo​


ok, yes it's less than DV2021 but it's still over selected year.

That's true about highest number, that probably just means that there are less holes, because if I remember correctly there are up to 40K selectees in EU. I'm lazy to count :D

but there are only 3 weeks left until CEAC data is published and we will know everything for sure.
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Absolutely!

Its indeed an overselected year and I am not 100 percent sure what it means for high number people like me, EU24k
PS Had to delete the link as the forum thinks its a spam
 
LondonGeo said:
Absolutely!

Its indeed an overselected year and I am not 100 percent sure what it means for high number people like me, EU24k
PS Had to delete the link as the forum thinks its a spam
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There's like 119,000 people selected (number grows as people marrying and having kids exceeds those passing away) for 55000 visas. It's an over-selected year. 2021 was super over-selected, but still this year is an over-selected year. This means for the month of September (or say the last quarter) they will have more demand (DS submitees as opposed to DQs I guess) than supply (visas left). This means they need to set final cutoff dates.
The full data will be out in January. I don't know about the EU numbers (I know about the AS data). Based on 2020 data and the bulletins by now, I would say EU24k is pretty safe. The chances of your number getting current during this fiscal year are pretty good. So, chill out.
 
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Britsimon said:
The movement of the VB month to month, and whether a region becomes current or not is a calculation performed by Charlie O. As inputs he looks at how many visas are available, embassy capacity and demand (cases that are DQ). Visa availability is sort of divided into quarterly buckets for a rough guesstimate, so that they would not try to do 100% of cases in 3 months. Embassy capacity may be affected by Tier4 in the calculation, I can'yt be sure.

Last year went current because KCC controlled (and throttled) the pace of cases going through the DQ stage. So - the numbers they reported to Charlie O were very low, even though there were many cases that had submitted their DS260s and were waiting for documents to be processed. They failed to process cases in appropriate volumes, only asked for documents when cases were near to being current and so on. They also cut back on the speed of processing while DV was affected by the bans.

If KCC process documents at "normal" speed, and if there is a constant flow of cases hitting the ds260 and document inboxes, then it is likely that demand would be higher than visa availability, AND capacity could be limited by the tier 4 prioritization.

Assuming NO capacity problems (a dream at this point), and if everyone that submits a DS260 (usually about 65/70% max), ALSO gets their documents processed, that would mean demand would be about 80k (of which about 10% would be denied). So - in that scenario, there would be final caps in some or all regions. That the the "mathematics".

But we don't know so many things. We don't know what will happen with Covid, embassy opening status, if and when tier 4 gets removed, whether people get the message to #sendthebloodydocuments, whether DV2020 or DV2021 process causes impacts, whether KCC #processthebloodydocuments more efficiently and so on, or even whether people are so fed up with the DV process that the response rate is lowered, whether embassies will enforce the passport rule causing higher refusals. Way too many factors. So - whilst we could do the math, that doesn't help predict what will actually happen.
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@LondonGeo
Here's BritSimon's explanation as to why there may not be all regions going current.
Bear in mind that DQ has been scraped, Tier 4 rescinded, a quarter wasted and varied capacities for the embassies. Also, future could hold surprises.
 
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samta123 said:
does I -134 necessary for the interview and what other ways to prove I am not going to be public charge
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Having an I-134 is the most effective way of overcoming potential public charge consideration. However, some embassies do consider the host system in place of a I-134. Some take into consideration age plus educational background grounds. And lastly, personal savings is also taken into consideration by some.
 
Butters said:
@LondonGeo
Here's BritSimon's explanation as to why there may not be all regions going current.
Bear in mind that DQ has been scraped, Tier 4 rescinded, a quarter wasted and varied capacities for the embassies. Also, future could hold surprises.
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Btw wanted to say thank you for your helpful comments on this forum!

Yeah, hard to say if all regions will go current but having a look at previous years, fingers crossed, 24k EU will be current in June/July
 
Hi all,
I unlock ds for my doughter, ( for derivat of the case) and change just her sumbit date.
Now if chose from sumbit date for interview, my ds260 look from first aplicant when sumbit ds or from last change for derivates?
Thank you
 

Here is BritSimons 2022 case number analysis if you have not watched. But just wait 3 more weeks for certain information.
 

noraa​


That number has been current from the October or November, how can it be high? :) you should have been interviewed already had the things gone smoothly from the beginning.
 
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DV2020EU44 said:

noraa​


That number has been current from the October or November, how can it be high? :) you should have been interviewed already if things went smoothly from the beginning.
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Yeah, now with the last changes I’m waiting for KCC to send me 2NL , because they didn’t send me DR neither DQ.
 
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