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DV 2020 All Selectees

Hey again guys! Just found out today that my classmate won the lottery too with a case number EU52xxx. Are there any chances for her? What was the highest number that got a visa previously? She's hoping to get an interview in July or August.
 
arielajv said:
Hey again guys! Just found out today that my classmate won the lottery too with a case number EU52xxx. Are there any chances for her? What was the highest number that got a visa previously? She's hoping to get an interview in July or August.
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Have you seen this link: http://britsimonsays.com/historical-visa-bulletin-numbers/
It is just historical numbers from previous years, 2020 could be different but at least it gives you an idea
 
WBA said:
New Zealand was one of the countries I considered for immigration, it seems like it is a beautiful country. Anyway, it is not related to DV, I wish you all the best in the next steps
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New Zealand is beautiful. We seriously take it for granted I’m sure! It’s also become more and more expensive to live here. Plus Kiwis seem to have an innate need to travel / live elsewhere (could it be rebelling against being named after a flightless bird??).
 
Drehitchcock said:
New Zealand is beautiful. We seriously take it for granted I’m sure! It’s also become more and more expensive to live here. Plus Kiwis seem to have an innate need to travel / live elsewhere (could it be rebelling against being named after a flightless bird??).
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Very attractive to people from my home country as it’s pretty easy to immigrate to with a degree and decent work experience.
 
Drehitchcock said:
New Zealand is beautiful. We seriously take it for granted I’m sure! It’s also become more and more expensive to live here. Plus Kiwis seem to have an innate need to travel / live elsewhere (could it be rebelling against being named after a flightless bird??).
Click to expand...
I always compare NZ to Canada where I live and Switzerland in terms of nature, also it looks like the IT industry is very good there,
As I got used by living in many countries (US is my potential 4th immigration) probably NZ will be my next station
 
Hello
i am winner of DV2020 AS2XXX, looking for further opinion and advice , I have submitted my DS260 two weeks ago but found out that i have made a mistake in my marriage contract date , i have mentioned 12 of September instead of 11 of September ( this mistake been made for my application and my wife as well) So shall i contact KCC to unlock my DS260 and correct the marriage contract date??
My last question , after submitting DS260 and since my case is low , can i send the documents to KCC directly or i have to wait for their email that will ask me to send required documents??
Many Thanks
 
Hi,
I have just watched Brit Simon's new video about DV 2020 CEAC data.
Now I am trying to figure out if I have a reasonable chance for an interview.

My CN: EU43k


Estimate response rate
DV 2019

CN range: 0-1000
hole: 37 % / no response: 23% / other: 40
actual no response rate: 23/(40+23) => 36% no response

CN range: 1000-2000
hole: 36 % / no response: 26% / other: 38%
actual no response rate: 26/(26+38) => 40% no response

DV 2020

CN range: 0-1000
hole: 62% / no response: 16% / other: 22%
actual no response rate: 16/(22+16) => 42% no response

CN range: 5000-6000
hole: 65% / no response: 15% / other: 20%
actual no response rate: 15/(15+20) => 42% no response

=> The actual response rate should be around 60%.

My case number is EU43k. There are 12800 cases in front of me. (If you are in EU, you can look it up here.)
The derivate rate for EU so far is 1.94. The quote for the EU is around 35% according to Brit's analysis which can be found here.
Let's say KCC will issue 50k visas this year (conservative estimate; might be a bit higher due to more visas from the NACRA program)

35% * 50k = 17.5k visas for EU

How many visas are issued before mine can be issued?
12800*60% = 7680 cases
7680 cases * 1.94 derivatives = 14900 visas

14900 < 17500 visas => I should have a fairly good chance of getting a GC.

Does my calculation make sense?
 
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Feynman said:
Let's say KCC will issue 50k visas this year (conservative estimate; might be a bit higher due to more visas from the NACRA program)
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That is my problem here. Do they have the time and resources to issue all that visas? The ones in front of you may create a backlog. Maybe I am wrong.
 
ASD123456 said:
Yes, I am. a new procedure and a slow start. But maybe I am wrong and they will speed it up.
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if you had spent much time reading here and britsimon you would know that many years have what is perceived to be a “slow start”.
The new procedure means interview slots are not being wasted on no-shows/people arriving without documents etc. How would that be worse for higher number applicants?
 
Feynman said:
If I base the calculation on 55k visas instead just 50k visas the situation becomes even better. @susie what do you think about the calculation?
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I don’t do calculations as such, but I’m fairly confident that the low number of selectees is good news.
on total numbers, I would probably use around 52-53k as a max, I think historically that’s been the highest kind of range we’ve seen. I stand corrected but I don’t think it’s quite reached 55k ever or at least not for a very long time.
 
arielajv said:
Hey again guys! Just found out today that my classmate won the lottery too with a case number EU52xxx. Are there any chances for her? What was the highest number that got a visa previously? She's hoping to get an interview in July or August.
Click to expand...

You cannot judge by that logic, there have never ever been such high case numbers in EU before.

The highest EU number this year is 55K, she has to submit her documents and keep fingers crossed. We hope for the best.
 
I think all cases in the EU up to 45k are ok and should attend the interview, all above 45k especially 50k+ are high case numbers and that numbers should be patient and wait their chances...
 
marko1995 said:
I think all cases in the EU up to 45k are ok and should attend the interview, all above 45k especially 50k+ are high case numbers and that numbers should be patient and wait their chances...
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I think they didn't expect to be that much work going through all the docs. Underestimated this work, plus probably more responders than usual. But yea "wait and see" what else can you do. Next two VBs for EU 4k each, games over.
 
Feynman said:
Hi,
I have just watched Brit Simon's new video about DV 2020 CEAC data.
Now I am trying to figure out if I have a reasonable chance for an interview.

My CN: EU43k


Estimate response rate
DV 2019

CN range: 0-1000
hole: 37 % / no response: 23% / other: 40
actual no response rate: 23/(40+23) => 36% no response

CN range: 1000-2000
hole: 36 % / no response: 26% / other: 38%
actual no response rate: 26/(26+38) => 40% no response

DV 2020

CN range: 0-1000
hole: 62% / no response: 16% / other: 22%
actual no response rate: 16/(22+16) => 42% no response

CN range: 5000-6000
hole: 65% / no response: 15% / other: 20%
actual no response rate: 15/(15+20) => 42% no response

=> The actual response rate should be around 60%.

My case number is EU43k. There are 12800 cases in front of me. (If you are in EU, you can look it up here.)
The derivate rate for EU so far is 1.94. The quote for the EU is around 35% according to Brit's analysis which can be found here.
Let's say KCC will issue 50k visas this year (conservative estimate; might be a bit higher due to more visas from the NACRA program)

35% * 50k = 17.5k visas for EU

How many visas are issued before mine can be issued?
12774*60% = 7680 cases
7680 cases * 1.94 derivatives = 14900 visas

14900 < 17500 visas => I should have a fairly good chance of getting a GC.

Does my calculation make sense?
Click to expand...

Your numbers are ALL low.

The EU quota will be around 36%, and the Global quota is nominally 55k. So - the actual quota should be nearer 19k.

I believe the response rate will be higher than 60% - but we will only know for sure at the end of the year.

The derivative rate will grow (marriages, births). What you quoted was the starting derivative rate.

You have not taken refusals or uncompleted AP into account.

Mathematically, your case should be fine. BUT there are other factors that come in to play, so you still have to wait and see.
 
Britsimon said:
Your numbers are ALL low.

The EU quota will be around 36%, and the Global quota is nominally 55k. So - the actual quota should be nearer 19k.

I believe the response rate will be higher than 60% - but we will only know for sure at the end of the year.

The derivative rate will grow (marriages, births). What you quoted was the starting derivative rate.

You have not taken refusals or uncompleted AP into account.

Mathematically, your case should be fine. BUT there are other factors that come in to play, so you still have to wait and see.
Click to expand...

Okay, thanks for the confirmation. The next six month will feel like years I guess ;)
 
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