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DV 2018 EU Selectees

Finwin said:
Hi Maja!
Congratulations, your CN has been current for some months already! Have you had your interview yet?
Click to expand...

Thank you so much :)) Yes i was,but i had to prospone my interview,because i got divorce and i had to back my surname :) That said the man from the embassy :) In the Usa that will cost me expensive and after divorce i got two months to change it. New date is in March :)
 
One update,My Green Day was 12.March i got my Visa :) Interview is only formality,if you have all documents everything is going to be alright :) I had so nice talk with the consul and i didn't realize that is a main part of the interview :) Good Luck to all :):):):)
 
Hi Sm1smom/Brit,
I’m one of the lucky boy that won DV2018 with EU23XXX CN. Thanks for your great work and support! I have been monitoring all your posts and analysis, they gave answers to all questions in my mind. That’s why don’t worry, I’m not going to ask if my case number will be current
I sit and did some calculations and analysis for EU. According to my calculations until now (till 13800 CN and issued visas 9052).

Issue Rate – 65%
AP – 6%
No show up (those may get interviewed) – 5.5%
Refuse Rate – 5.5%
No show up (those won’t do interview) Rate – 18%

In my below calculations I didn't use Refuse Rate - 5.5% and No show up (those won’t do interview) Rate – 18%, only used Issue rate 65%, AP (as 5% because I believe all AP won’t get cleared) and No show up (those may get interviewed) as 5%. In brief I took a issue rate as 75%.

As per calculations – Derivative and growth rate was calculated as 2.35.

Until 13800 (end of March) and also 6 months period;
Issue – 9052 +10% (AP and No show up) = 9052+1400 (14000 total w/t derivative) = appr. 10450. Now let’s look at predictions for next 6 months period.

April
Total 2150 cases got current in which 555 cases were submitted or you may call it real cases.
Total number of selectee = 555x2.35=1304 people
Total number of issued=1304x0.75=978 (including predicted AP and now show ups). I took this as 1000 for April and

May so 10450+1000+1000=12450 so far.

JUNE (Prediction)
18050+3250=21300 CN
Net case numbers = 3250/3.82 (hole, no response etc.) = 850 CN
Total number of selectee = 850x2.35 (D.R) = 2000 people
Total # of issued = 2000x0.75=1500 people

JULY (Prediction)
21300+3250 = 24550 CN and Total # of issued = 2000x0.75=1500 people

AUGUST (Prediction)
24550+3250 = 27800 CN and Total # of issued = 2000x0.75=1500 people

SEPTEMBER (Prediction)
27800+3250 = 31050 CN and Total # of issued = 2000x0.75=1500 people

In conclusion, until June we have 12450 issued visas and end of DV2018 there will be 18450.
These are my predictions as per my calculations that’s why don’t take it seriously, the real one may turn out to be different.
Have a good day!

P.S: Brit, somehow i could not post this to your blog, I did try but it did not show up.
 
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