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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

siliconeslinger said:
No amount of explaining will change the fact that Nepalese are stealing visas from other Asian countries
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Oh dear, oh dear. STILL not "got it" have you.

Well - you are about to have more to complain about. I am publishing a CEAC file shortly, extracted today.

It shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month - which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month.

It also shows a clear acceleration in cases being issued for Iranian cases. Iran have basically doubled their year to date issued number during the past 6 weeks. It does not mean AP in Iran is going faster (I have yet to prove or disprove that) but it shows that the cycle of AP closures (at whatever closure pace we find) is going to build, month to month. I believe Iran will take at least 2700 visas - possibly as high as 3000.

That is going to leave 1500 to 1700 visas for ROA. Up to now, ROA has been taking 118 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) - meaning it will probably end up at something around 130/1000 - probably a bit more.

That means it is now pretty much certain AS can't pass 13000. I haven't told anyone else in the world this news yet - but I immediately thought of you.
 
Britsimon said:
Oh dear, oh dear. STILL not "got it" have you.

Well - you are about to have more to complain about. I am publishing a CEAC file shortly, extracted today.

It shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month - which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month.

It also shows a clear acceleration in cases being issued for Iranian cases. Iran have basically doubled their year to date issued number during the past 6 weeks. It does not mean AP in Iran is going faster (I have yet to prove or disprove that) but it shows that the cycle of AP closures (at whatever closure pace we find) is going to build, month to month. I believe Iran will take at least 2700 visas - possibly as high as 3000.

That is going to leave 1500 to 1700 visas for ROA. Up to now, ROA has been taking 118 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) - meaning it will probably end up at something around 130/1000 - probably a bit more.

That means it is now pretty much certain AS can't pass 13000. I haven't told anyone else in the world this news yet - but I immediately thought of you.
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hi, what do u think of EU? any predictions..?
 
adela15 said:
ok thanks
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EU is at 10348 issued as of today - having added 1005 in half a month. That means they are well on pace to use all the visas, and could just about meet the quota without a September VB increase (just issuing to AP cases and backlog cases.
 
Britsimon said:
EU is at 10348 issued as of today - having added 1005 in half a month. That means they are well on pace to use all the visas, and could just about meet the quota without a September VB increase (just issuing to AP cases and backlog cases.
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that does not sound good for my number then ..do you think they will go around 38000 for the next VB? I understand that you cannot predict yet without 2NL, but just in case you could say something ..thanks
 
adela15 said:
that does not sound good for my number then ..do you think they will go around 38000 for the next VB? I understand that you cannot predict yet without 2NL, but just in case you could say something ..thanks
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They should get to 38+ - but yeah - I really want to see the 2NLs...
 
siliconeslinger said:
I hope the earthquake causes the response rate to drop dramatically hence more cn for the rest of Asia because kfc can't use up the quota by Nepalese cases so they have to make up for that in roa cases
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Vulturistic opportunisim?!
You are and worth and have been getting a lot of being ignored but this beyond the line. You certainly deserve no favours from Providence.
 
DV4ROGER said:
I expect 18,700-19,600 visas for EU region in CEAC.
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Perfect timing - I was just typing that. I tend to work on 18500 (assuming slightly pessimistic numbers for the global number and/or highish AoS). More would be a bonus - 19600 would be a big deal.

Could you repost your calculation picture again some time - I think it got eaten by the forum system (or I simply can't find it. You corrected it after I posted your theory on my blog, but I didn't update it....
 
Britsimon said:
I do!

Why are you saying you will miss out?
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I looked at real CN increase (not with holes) for May, June, July ..around 550-650 ( with response rate maybe 300 per month), so they took a lot of backlog to get to 2200 visas... I might be wrong as I have just looked very quickly ..I am around 704 real CN numbers away from 35700.. I do hope you are right and it gets at least at 38000
 
Britsimon said:
Oh dear, oh dear. STILL not "got it" have you.

Well - you are about to have more to complain about. I am publishing a CEAC file shortly, extracted today.

It shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month - which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month.

It also shows a clear acceleration in cases being issued for Iranian cases. Iran have basically doubled their year to date issued number during the past 6 weeks. It does not mean AP in Iran is going faster (I have yet to prove or disprove that) but it shows that the cycle of AP closures (at whatever closure pace we find) is going to build, month to month. I believe Iran will take at least 2700 visas - possibly as high as 3000.

That is going to leave 1500 to 1700 visas for ROA. Up to now, ROA has been taking 118 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) - meaning it will probably end up at something around 130/1000 - probably a bit more.

That means it is now pretty much certain AS can't pass 13000. I haven't told anyone else in the world this news yet - but I immediately thought of you.
Click to expand...

Adding this information to your clear message about Iranian AP.
Last year average clearance for Iranian case was between 4 to 6 months( depending on embassy! ABD, ANK or YRV).
( filtering these three embassy and see the details on ceac files).
But on this months,we monitor the Iranian forum, the maximum AP time is between 3 to 4 months!
Today I see that it may be faster in next 6 months until September(1 to 3 months clearance) . More case with government position or compulsory military service get AP!
If take a look on CEAC file until 15 may, total case of these three embassy is 1721 persons! I predict that in max there is up to 3000 Iranian case can get maximum visa on this year.
I hope that any ROA case can get visa :)
As an Iranian person wish the good for any case in 2015 .
God bless you .
 
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