that sounds frightening - to stop increasing CNs in August .
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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here
- Thread starter Gold iSak
- Start date
that will mean 4000 per bulletin...have u checked based on all CEAC data, how many are actually without holes till the max for EU..i think I counted 4000 and something, but have done it in rush..and lets say in average each 4000 comes with 2-3 family members..and they also have the backlog...
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n.n.
Active Member
Yes I did. Actually as I mentioned, there is around 3,000 visas left. This makes around 8,000 CNs based on CEAC data. 3,000 family members are in the range between 26,000 and 34,000. That is why I estimated 8,000 CNs for 3,000 visas.
so whats ur prediction for cut -off?
do u think it will be another draw for 2016, like adding more people?
siliconeslinger
Member
What do u guys think about Asia? Will they increase the pace for the next 3 vbs due to nepal earthquake?
My case number is 13,6XX. It's been really stressful for me..
My case number is 13,6XX. It's been really stressful for me..
n.n.
Active Member
Well, as I said, it depends on the activity of low CN numbers imo. There are around 8,000 CNs available, but I do not think that all CNs will be allocated to the owners of high CNs. On the other hand, late APs might not be able to get their visas on time. I think this cut-off will be in the range of 4,000. The next one will more depend on the response rate.
Actually, this is very unclear, but if they optimized the algorithm of selection and if they actively send emails to the winners in order to ask them to fill the forms, I think the second draw will not be necessary. Although, as I said, it is very unclear what happened and it is too early to make any kind of predictions.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes it is what happened last year but also looking at the current progress.
It is "normal" that most regions are behind at this point - because all regions have a slow start. EU however, has issued around 10000 right now. I fully expect them to have issued about 11500 at the end of May - and the pace of issuance is a solid 2000 per month (nearly 2200 last month).
Let's say at existing pace they issue 6500 in the three months from June to August - that would put them at 18000. September will still see issuances even without a VB increase, due to AP completions, rescheduled cases and DS260 late submissions. Then there are the AoS cases which could easily be more than 1000 for EU. So - if the target is 19.5 or 20k, out of which the AoS cases take 1000+, that can be achieved with little or no VB increase for EU for September.
my CN is still at NVC, so maybe current CN will for July will be below my number
If you check the status of the number 34126 (the first CN to be included in the next bulletin), you'll notice that it also says "at NVC," which means they don't change the status of an application until AFTER the VB has been published.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
AS exp[lained MANY times. at NVC is the standard status until the case is scheduled.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
This has happened to us in the past for one of our children, probably due to the fact that E-I94 system did not work flawlessly in the beginning. In the spirit of being optimally prepared, it would be ideal if you were possibly able to produce a boarding pass of your return flight or at least flight booking documentation etc., if required. In our case the subject never came up (possibly because our daughter was underage and it therefore might seem unlikely for her to overstay all on her own), so we just threw documentation out after the interview, that's all. Good luck!
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Missed the original post but - the passport should have an entry stamp of wherever they entered after they left the US, which is probably easier proof than trying to find an old boarding pass!
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Well, it depends - if you are, for example, European returning from the US to your home country, there is no entry stamp in your passport, or anything else for that matter, that documents US departure, other than a boarding pass or flight bookings.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Really, you don't get a re-entry stamp if coming from outside of Europe?
Well if it's a flight out they should have a record - US keeps close tabs on who travels in and out by air as I am sure you are aware.
Do you still think thiks given the low number for EU? Whos is to say they havent planned for 4k June and another small jump in July (maybe 1-1.5k) to offset against this current small jump. You just dont know.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Of course I don't "know" - but as I said earlier the pace is (or was) heading for a August final EU number. Perhaps they don't like that and wanted to slow things down, perhaps they are dealing with more backlog cases than I had hoped. We will see more once the 2NLs are out. Feel free to wait for the August VB when all will be clear.
that's good then, I still can have hope
siliconeslinger
Member
Nepal got limited at 6475 and the current cn for Asia is merely 6800, last year when they limited nepal it was 8900. Surely it'll mean lower final cn than 13.350 right? Is there any hope left for those of us whose cn is 13,350-14,000? Please give a honest answer, i don't need a sugar-coated one... If you think it's hopeless then say it no need to think about feeling I'd rather prepare for not ever getting current
