God-Is-Love
Well-Known Member
what about for military service? Does it have age limit? I mean after LPR status.
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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here
- Thread starter Gold iSak
- Start date
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
No idea in this regard (career military is obviously different). But relax, selective service is for the draft, highly unlikely.
For those who want to serve in the military, on the other hand, it is a fast-track route to citizenship.
siliconeslinger
Member
I find it silly that one country, one embassy determines the pace of one entire continent, and it's extremely extremely unfair towards the rest of Asia. But then again fairness isn't in the top list of priority for KCC right?
I've read some of your work on your site and from what i understand, the first 10k asian cases are comprised of 40% iran 40% nepal 20% asia, afterwards 100% asia, why is it that way? Why not make it asia 30% iran 30%
Better yet whu can't they just put them on a separate Number like they do African special countries? This would make a lot more sense than ignoring one whole continent in favor of two counties
No offense to Iranian selectees but this wanna make me lash out at them for getting prioritized by KCC
Oh yeah, prior to 2013 Asian case numbers went up to as much as 50,000, why is it only in the 10,000-15,000 ballpark now?
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siliconeslinger
Member
You're lucky to be from nepal as KCC prioritizes iranian and Nepalese cases at the sacrifice of entire asian region
It is slow due to them prioritizing the said countries
Yes it is safe
I'm sure Simon can explain to you how people from these countries form the bulk of Asian applicants, and that they have a much lower chance of being selected. But personally, I understand your frustration (we're on the same boat). At the end of the day, they are the ones getting most of the visas..
siliconeslinger
Member
Much lower chance of getting selected but much higher chance of actually getting interviewed, i prefer that rather than being a selected with a HIGH CN (false hope)
It doesn't matter, indeed, at the end of the day they get the lion's share of the available visas, we, the rest of asia only get the "leftover visa".
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah, I think that is a common reaction - however, if there is something unfair Nepalese and Iranian applicants could claim they are unfairly disadvantaged. My holes theory blog post explains why in detail - but briefly:-
The law says that everyone within a region should have the same chance of winning. There is no limit on how many people from any one country can enter, some countries have more participation because it is more widely known. Nepal and Iran have a much larger number of entries and each of those entries should have the very same chance as anyone else in the region, and therefore more entries will mean more winners. However, during the selection process, Nepal and Iran are restricted - so once they first 5000 Iranian and Nepalese had been selected, the remainder of their winners were "disqualified". Those entries become holes and the holes mean the density of the cases is far less once the Nepal and Iranian cases are exhausted.
So - the winning chance for an Iranian or Nepalese case is far lower if you think about it - but that is why their case numbers are concentrated in the early ranges.
The density reduction can be seen clearly in the graph below.
The Asian region used to include Bangladesh. They had a MASSIVE amount of entries and as a consequence there were a lot more holes and much higher case numbers.
Read this post for more understanding.
http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
And the million other immigrant visas a year, and many millions more waiting for their priority dates to become current, think it's really unfair that compared to all the hoops they have to jump through, lawyers they have to pay and years they have to wait, that DV winners just send in a couple of forms, pay a fee and so quickly get their immigrant visas.
rockhard999
New Member
Thanks but I still dont get the point why it is too slow ...why other region is so quick ...
rockhard999
New Member
Thanks man . lets wait and watch for me now
The funny thing is, It is unfair. But not as the way as you think it is.
Without Simon's hole theory AS region would be like this :
1-10k: 40% Iranian, 40% Nepal, 20% other Asians
10k-20k: 40%Iranian, 40% Nepal, 20% other Asians
The thing is that KCC removes Iran and Nepal high case numbers even though they were selected in the first place because each of them reach their country limit 5000 case number(for preventing each country to reach over 7% of DV lottery visas-3500 visas)
It is understandable for Nepal since 95% of their cases receive their visas right after the interview and whenever there are 20000 Nepal winners or 5000 they are limited in VB right after they reach their 3500 visa limits(Nepal cut offs are likely to be around 8500). But with long AP of Iranian cases if nothing improves from 2014 they couldn't reach even 2200 visas from 5000 winners!(let alone 3500 visa limit!)
Special county cutoffs of VB in AF and EU regions right now are more about balancing the load of those limited country embassies. It's not meant to manipulate the overall issued visas of those countries and it's safe to consider those countries reach their 3500 limits at end of the year. But in AS region if they impose Nepal and Iran cutoffs, it is very strong possibility that they don't reach their 3500 limit.
why it is fair to do so? look at it this way:
One who wins lottery with lower case number is someone who gets a better prize. KCC thinks that if the visas are limited he deserves more to get a visa. They are several people in your country with low case numbers but because more people from Nepal and Iran entered to lottery they are more winners and hence there are more low CNs assigned to those countries. If you were from Iran or Nepal with that high CN you didn't even receive your first letter!
P.S.: Iran has the worst winning chance of lottery. AS has the lowest acceptance chance(1.1%). Iranians got their limits(0.7%) sooner than Nepalis(1%) and even if they are selected there is a high chance that they get AP (70%) and high chance that they stuck in it(50% according to last year results). The overal winning chance for an Iranian is somewhere near 0.45%
Only one country beats this bad result in history of lottery and that is Bangladesh in 2012, So be Thankful for your CN and wait till you get current. It is more likely that you receive your visa than the 5000+ Iranian and 8000+Nepali CNs.
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
laleh
Member
Don't worry buddy
Most Iranian get AP and their clearance takes nearly 6month and during this time other parts of Asia have more chance to be granted visa.
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siliconeslinger
Member
I can oily hope this'll mean higher final cn for Asia, 13,600-13,800 would be nice.
Martin9
Member
Hi Laleh,
I work as a lawyer in a firm, which although has an Immigration Law division, I don't have much to do with it. I mostly deal with investments and contract law, but do come across a lot of investment based green cards with the emphasis very much on the investment and commercial aspects. However, I am aware of a lot of pressure being put on the FBI and DHS to speed up the Iranian clearance process. You may already know that the average clearance time is 2 to 4 months, but 6 or 9 months happen all too often and even 2 years in not unheard of. Those are obviously for other types of visas, not DV which times out. I am aware of an Iranian law firm in Chicago, who is trying to put together a Class Action against this type of delays. this is a pro bono action, i.e no cost to individuals, and there is no financial benefit, but may force the process. The email address for this class action is visacheck@kameli.com so if you have access to Iranian Forums or friends that have experienced this delay, you may like to let them know so they can add their case to the list. I stress, that I don't personally know this law firm first hand, but have come across them in various conferences and we occasionally exchange information, but then again there is no cost and simply the case number is used in the class action.
Interestingly the majority of "clearance" delays are not due to concern on the terrorist front, which most people assume, but according to an expert that I heard at a conference, it is due to fears of technology leak. An Iranian national, whether he /she has a green card, work permit, or is a student, may be able to gain knowledge or experience in fields which are under sanction. These include Oil technology and Nuclear as well as some engineering. So if the applicant has worked or studied (or intends to) in one of these fields, that can causes delays. Having served in the military or belonging to a political party also can be problematic. If that individual then returns to Iran, he/she now has the know how that may prove useful to the Iranian state.
FBI themselves as well as a lot of US politician are also trying to get these delays reduced because of two factors:
1) They see that the "Brain Drain" (obviously not in the DV Case) and the outflow of cash for investment projects, is much more effective than any sanction and;
2) That Iranian government seems to concern itself with regional politics, and prefers non Iranian agents rather than overt terrorist activity.
So most of the time and effort of the FBI and Department of Homeland Security is wasted in this regards and can be more effectively deployed elsewhere.
Hypochondriac
Member
I am trying to plan and figure out where to go in the US but have no idea as I have no family or friends over there. How to resolve this dilemma ? Visa approved.
rolex123
Well-Known Member
congrats @Hypochondriac .
laleh
Member
T
Thx a lot
I will my friend let know what you mentioned
But pls be aware there are lots of people in our forum who have had interview in October and still no news of clearance. As a matter of fact in our forum nobody has been cleared yet.
Well finally I got my 2nd letter and the last week of march I'm going to have interview . my case includes both factors you mentioned for delay in clearance (working in oil field+my husband has been served in military which is mandatory in Iran)
So I'm going to lose my hope to be cleared before visa limitation By the way last year in dv2014 there were loads of Iranian people who received their clearance after visa ending
Anyway I try to be optimistic for my interview and really appreciate your guidance sharing
Dear Martin
Thx a lot
I will my friend let know what you mentioned
But pls be aware there are lots of people in our forum who have had interview in October and still no news of clearance. As a matter of fact in our forum nobody has been cleared yet.
Well finally I got my 2nd letter and the last week of march I'm going to have interview . my case includes both factors you mentioned for delay in clearance (working in oil field+my husband has been served in military which is mandatory in Iran)
So I'm going to lose my hope to be cleared before visa limitation By the way last year in dv2014 there were loads of Iranian people who received their clearance after visa endingAnyway I try to be optimistic for my interview and really appreciate your guidance sharing
Martin9
Member
Sorry Laleh, I didn't mean for you to lose hope!. I keep my fingers crossed for you.
Unfortunately FBI doesn't know, what the reason for clearance request is, or that this case has a time limit and that one doesn't, so they process everything according to a routine, and certain factors will cause delays. I suppose if most men are serving in the military, even as a conscript, then that would catch a lot of people out, and also the oil industry must employ a lot of people in Iran, where if I remember rightly, the Government is the largest employer, since most institutions are nationalised, then the percentage must be coming up to high nineties. Any way, best of luck, and from March to September, you hopefully have enough time to clear checking process.
Unfortunately FBI doesn't know, what the reason for clearance request is, or that this case has a time limit and that one doesn't, so they process everything according to a routine, and certain factors will cause delays. I suppose if most men are serving in the military, even as a conscript, then that would catch a lot of people out, and also the oil industry must employ a lot of people in Iran, where if I remember rightly, the Government is the largest employer, since most institutions are nationalised, then the percentage must be coming up to high nineties. Any way, best of luck, and from March to September, you hopefully have enough time to clear checking process.