DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

[laleh]

No , I was kidding
Actually we ,Iranian , all know who has at least one of these factors faces AP.
In our forum those who r single with no job and have not been served in military & work for private company granted visa immidiately & most have been faced AP. Actually dv2014 had an awful ending for Iranian and because of that this year most selectees r under stress and worry about how long clearance will take. I've read last year from end of July no Iranian could be granted visa :-(
But I'm still try to be optimistic and wait for future.
I really appreciate your guidance in this regard and need your positive energy ;-) thanks a lot

 

[Britsimon]

No , I was kidding
Actually we ,Iranian , all know who has at least one of these factors faces AP.
In our forum those who r single with no job and have not been served in military & work for private company granted visa immidiately & most have been faced AP. Actually dv2014 had an awful ending for Iranian and because of that this year most selectees r under stress and worry about how long clearance will take. I've read last year from end of July no Iranian could be granted visa :-(
But I'm still try to be optimistic and wait for future.
I really appreciate your guidance in this regard and need your positive energy ;-) thanks a lot

Good luck!

 

[Britsimon]

Hi Laleh,
I work as a lawyer in a firm, which although has an Immigration Law division, I don't have much to do with it. I mostly deal with investments and contract law, but do come across a lot of investment based green cards with the emphasis very much on the investment and commercial aspects. However, I am aware of a lot of pressure being put on the FBI and DHS to speed up the Iranian clearance process. You may already know that the average clearance time is 2 to 4 months, but 6 or 9 months happen all too often and even 2 years in not unheard of. Those are obviously for other types of visas, not DV which times out. I am aware of an Iranian law firm in Chicago, who is trying to put together a Class Action against this type of delays. this is a pro bono action, i.e no cost to individuals, and there is no financial benefit, but may force the process. The email address for this class action is visacheck@kameli.com so if you have access to Iranian Forums or friends that have experienced this delay, you may like to let them know so they can add their case to the list. I stress, that I don't personally know this law firm first hand, but have come across them in various conferences and we occasionally exchange information, but then again there is no cost and simply the case number is used in the class action.

Interestingly the majority of "clearance" delays are not due to concern on the terrorist front, which most people assume, but according to an expert that I heard at a conference, it is due to fears of technology leak. An Iranian national, whether he /she has a green card, work permit, or is a student, may be able to gain knowledge or experience in fields which are under sanction. These include Oil technology and Nuclear as well as some engineering. So if the applicant has worked or studied (or intends to) in one of these fields, that can causes delays. Having served in the military or belonging to a political party also can be problematic. If that individual then returns to Iran, he/she now has the know how that may prove useful to the Iranian state.

FBI themselves as well as a lot of US politician are also trying to get these delays reduced because of two factors:
1) They see that the "Brain Drain" (obviously not in the DV Case) and the outflow of cash for investment projects, is much more effective than any sanction and;
2) That Iranian government seems to concern itself with regional politics, and prefers non Iranian agents rather than overt terrorist activity.
So most of the time and effort of the FBI and Department of Homeland Security is wasted in this regards and can be more effectively deployed elsewhere.

Good input. The technology leak angle makes a lot of sense - however, I don't think that terrorism fears can be removed as a factor. The bureaucrats do not want to be "the person" that let in someone that goes on to do harm and the American psyche is worried about the perceived threat from Islamic countries.

 

[Martin9]

Good input. The technology leak angle makes a lot of sense - however, I don't think that terrorism fears can be removed as a factor. The bureaucrats do not want to be "the person" that let in someone that goes on to do harm and the American psyche is worried about the perceived threat from Islamic countries.

As I said, this isn't my area of expertise, just repeating what I heard in various conferences that I have to go to. This one point was raised by a "security expert" who was an ex FBI officer and his job now was as "expert witness" and "advisor" to legal firms, particularly those who had clients that had experienced delays in clearance or were denied visas. I must admit I only attended this session out of having a long slot of doing nothing between two other sessions on a week long boring stint up in New York, but it had some interesting exchanges between him and some of other attorneys present. Like you, I also assumed that the main concern was the terrorism factor, but it turns out that FBI and DHS work a lot smarter than we give them credit for. They use a "Risk Factor Indicator" which very broadly speaking assigns different risks to each applicant, by profiling them. Islamic countries such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia score much higher on the terrorism front than Iran although they are meant to be our friends, he had graphs and stats and things which I can't remember, but the thrust of his argument was that if your client has had issues with clearance, it is no good trying to convince FBI that he poses no terrorist threat, it is almost always something else in the case of Iran. (This was in answer to a question by a firm acting on behalf of many Iranian clients). I must admit I was surprised to hear this myself, but there you go. After all, if you have limited resources, you need to point them at the most likely sources in each case. For some countries that is terrorism, some espionage and some something else. Not suggesting that some officers won't have that view or no Iranian is denied because of these fears, just that it isn't the top scoring one in the case of Iran.

 

[Britsimon]

As I said, this isn't my area of expertise, just repeating what I heard in various conferences that I have to go to. This one point was raised by a "security expert" who was an ex FBI officer and his job now was as "expert witness" and "advisor" to legal firms, particularly those who had clients that had experienced delays in clearance or were denied visas. I must admit I only attended this session out of having a long slot of doing nothing between two other sessions on a week long boring stint up in New York, but it had some interesting exchanges between him and some of other attorneys present. Like you, I also assumed that the main concern was the terrorism factor, but it turns out that FBI and DHS work a lot smarter than we give them credit for. They use a "Risk Factor Indicator" which very broadly speaking assigns different risks to each applicant, by profiling them. Islamic countries such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia score much higher on the terrorism front than Iran although they are meant to be our friends, he had graphs and stats and things which I can't remember, but the thrust of his argument was that if your client has had issues with clearance, it is no good trying to convince FBI that he poses no terrorist threat, it is almost always something else in the case of Iran. (This was in answer to a question by a firm acting on behalf of many Iranian clients). I must admit I was surprised to hear this myself, but there you go. After all, if you have limited resources, you need to point them at the most likely sources in each case. For some countries that is terrorism, some espionage and some something else. Not suggesting that some officers won't have that view or no Iranian is denied because of these fears, just that it isn't the top scoring one in the case of Iran.

Again - very interesting. Glad to hear there are some smart people in charge of keeping us safe!

 

[SusieQQQ]

As I said, this isn't my area of expertise, just repeating what I heard in various conferences that I have to go to. This one point was raised by a "security expert" who was an ex FBI officer and his job now was as "expert witness" and "advisor" to legal firms, particularly those who had clients that had experienced delays in clearance or were denied visas. I must admit I only attended this session out of having a long slot of doing nothing between two other sessions on a week long boring stint up in New York, but it had some interesting exchanges between him and some of other attorneys present. Like you, I also assumed that the main concern was the terrorism factor, but it turns out that FBI and DHS work a lot smarter than we give them credit for. They use a "Risk Factor Indicator" which very broadly speaking assigns different risks to each applicant, by profiling them. Islamic countries such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia score much higher on the terrorism front than Iran although they are meant to be our friends, he had graphs and stats and things which I can't remember, but the thrust of his argument was that if your client has had issues with clearance, it is no good trying to convince FBI that he poses no terrorist threat, it is almost always something else in the case of Iran. (This was in answer to a question by a firm acting on behalf of many Iranian clients). I must admit I was surprised to hear this myself, but there you go. After all, if you have limited resources, you need to point them at the most likely sources in each case. For some countries that is terrorism, some espionage and some something else. Not suggesting that some officers won't have that view or no Iranian is denied because of these fears, just that it isn't the top scoring one in the case of Iran.

Very interesting input, thanks for taking the time to post this!

 

[T. Shedrick]

informative post, what's about others countries who post non of those threat to the US, what do AP stay long and what is the FBI finding out about their cases?

 

[Martin9]

Again - very interesting. Glad to hear there are some smart people in charge of keeping us safe!

Well, I wouldn't g that far but speaking of American Psyche, as a red blooded Brit, I'm still fuming about this little gem

People in the office were actually asking me if it was actually true!!!!. Can you Actually imagine actually religion police actually beating up people in central London actually and actually hurting them actually (sic) !!!!!!
If we are not careful in this country, these views take hold and then no one is safe.
(was there too much actually?)

 

[Nahar333]

 

[viki viki]

Hi all ,
I wanna ask when exactly we should pay the interview fees ? On the interview date or befor ?
And in what currency ? Dollars or Egyptian pounds? (Cairo embassy)

 

[Sammy967]

Hi all ,
I wanna ask when exactly we should pay the interview fees ? On the interview date or befor ?
And in what currency ? Dollars or Egyptian pounds? (Cairo embassy)

You will have to pay at the embassy on the interview day. So far I have seen at least 3 people reporting paying in USD. But you can check with the embassy if they accept Egyptian pound too. I would advise you just go with USD.

 

[Britsimon]

Well, I wouldn't g that far but speaking of American Psyche, as a red blooded Brit, I'm still fuming about this little gem

People in the office were actually asking me if it was actually true!!!!. Can you Actually imagine actually religion police actually beating up people in central London actually and actually hurting them actually (sic) !!!!!!
If we are not careful in this country, these views take hold and then no one is safe.
(was there too much actually?)

I know, I know. I laughed for a moment until I realised that there is a good proportion of people here that believe the crap they hear on Fox "news" and they will argue it is actually a real news channel. Those same people are typically anti immigration, anti gay, anti abortion and so on.

 

[Martin9]

I know, I know. I laughed for a moment until I realised that there is a good proportion of people here that believe the crap they hear on Fox "news" and they will argue it is actually a real news channel. Those same people are typically anti immigration, anti gay, anti abortion and so on.

You know, I, in common with most sane people, don't watch Fox News, so I hadn't seen this when I went to work next day, and people were asking me how does my mum cope living in London with the religion police stopping her if she doesn't conform to Islamic dress!, and I had NOOO idea where that was coming from?? And worse, when I did say this is all BS, and Birmingham isn't like that and we don't have religion police in London, some looked at me as if to say, "..but she is a judge, and that guy is an expert, they wouldn't make this up!! , more likely it's you lying or been away too long and things have changed".
I'm sure you also had this conversation:
..I always wanted to go to London.
me: So why don't you?
.. oh no, it's too dangerous. all those terrorists and atrocities!!

And this is a couple of days after yet another mass shooting by some looser with a automatic rifle!.

 

[Britsimon]

You know, I, in common with most sane people, don't watch Fox News, so I hadn't seen this when I went to work next day, and people were asking me how does my mum cope living in London with the religion police stopping her if she doesn't conform to Islamic dress!, and I had NOOO idea where that was coming from?? And worse, when I did say this is all BS, and Birmingham isn't like that and we don't have religion police in London, some looked at me as if to say, "..but she is a judge, and that guy is an expert, they wouldn't make this up!! , more likely it's you lying or been away too long and things have changed".
I'm sure you also had this conversation:
..I always wanted to go to London.
me: So why don't you?
.. oh no, it's too dangerous. all those terrorists and atrocities!!

And this is a couple of days after yet another mass shooting by some looser with a automatic rifle!.

Quite.

 

[rashid]

Hello Britsimon

My case number is AS11XXX, kindly advise me if i have good chance to get the interview or not ? any expectation for the date pls ?

 

[Britsimon]

Hello Britsimon

My case number is AS11XXX, kindly advise me if i have good chance to get the interview or not ? any expectation for the date pls ?

It will be late in the process, August or September. Pretty good chance.

 

[laleh]

OK - I think that is significant - it probably represents an attempt to clear more cases for Iran than last year.

If you check the league table from DV2014 (link below) you will see that cases processed in Ankara or Abu Dhabi only had a 59% issued rate. AP and Ready (which were often AP cases) were about 20% each. Yerevan however seemed much more likely to get issued. Only 15% on AP and 10% on ready. Overall issued rate was 71%. All 3 embassies had similar numbers of cases to process but Yerevan produced more winners (actually Yerevan had the fewest cases of the 3 and issued the most).

So - the cases that got moved to Yerevan may have just got some good news and the ones still at Ankara might benefit if that means they have more time to process the remaining cases.

http://britsimonsays.com/embassy-league-table-statistics-refusalapissued/

Dear Britsimon
As u said it looks changing people's embassy had positive effect on AP because in end of jan about 10-15 people of our forum who had interview during October in Ankara became cleared. Their AP took about 4months to be cleared.
As I mentioned before I will have interview in end of March in Abu Dhabi . Do u think our clearance will be in a same duration and can we be hopeful to be cleared before finishing visa? ?????
Hope so

 

[Britsimon]

Dear Britsimon
As u said it looks changing people's embassy had positive effect on AP because in end of jan about 10-15 people of our forum who had interview during October in Ankara became cleared. Their AP took about 4months to be cleared.
As I mentioned before I will have interview in end of March in Abu Dhabi . Do u think our clearance will be in a same duration and can we be hopeful to be cleared before finishing visa? ?????
Hope so

The 10-15 is more than I can see got clearer in CEAC - so either the embassy hasn't updated CEAC correctly or that number is overstated.

I think it is a bit premature to celebrate. ABD looks to be the "safest" of the three embassies so far - but it is the smallest group - so probably isn't accurate.

However, extracted the AS region data and pulled the AS region cases from each of the three embassies so you can see what is going on. Ankara clearly has a large number of AP cases. I'm working on ways to figure out length of time for AP and so on, although it will take me some additional time to perfect that. However, CEAC shows 66 cases were placed on AP during the past month in Ankara whereas only 6 cases were cleared. I'll post more here as I perfect my stats on the data.

 

[gitma]

The 10-15 is more than I can see got clearer in CEAC - so either the embassy hasn't updated CEAC correctly or that number is overstated.

I think it is a bit premature to celebrate. ABD looks to be the "safest" of the three embassies so far - but it is the smallest group - so probably isn't accurate.

However, extracted the AS region data and pulled the AS region cases from each of the three embassies so you can see what is going on. Ankara clearly has a large number of AP cases. I'm working on ways to figure out length of time for AP and so on, although it will take me some additional time to perfect that. However, CEAC shows 66 cases were placed on AP during the past month in Ankara whereas only 6 cases were cleared. I'll post more here as I perfect my stats on the data.

View attachment 369

Britsimon, has the CEAC data been updated

 

[laleh]

The 10-15 is more than I can see got clearer in CEAC - so either the embassy hasn't updated CEAC correctly or that number is overstated.

I think it is a bit premature to celebrate. ABD looks to be the "safest" of the three embassies so far - but it is the smallest group - so probably isn't accurate.

However, extracted the AS region data and pulled the AS region cases from each of the three embassies so you can see what is going on. Ankara clearly has a large number of AP cases. I'm working on ways to figure out length of time for AP and so on, although it will take me some additional time to perfect that. However, CEAC shows 66 cases were placed on AP during the past month in Ankara whereas only 6 cases were cleared. I'll post more here as I perfect my stats on the data.

View attachment 369

really appreciate for the information you share to us.
well there are some people in our forum who have received an email from embassy that their AP have been finished and should go to Ankara not later than 26 of Feb. But it is interesting , their case No. is not in CEAC cleared list or even on embassy's site.

I mean we have 6-7 cases in our forum who have received the Email and other case No. are on embassy site. as Turkish Case No should have Eu I guess those No. who have AS in their case no, belong to Iran.

anyway, as u said it is still soon to talk about these but i'm really happy we have you here to give us such valuable info.
thx.