• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

SusieQQQ said:
The last sentence is incorrct, the time period is 12 months. The rest of my family just returned to the US after an 11 month absence with no problem.
Look for official USCIS pages on this, not those of lawyers trying to scare you into giving them business!
Click to expand...

As per INA 101 (a) (13), i do not think my last sentence is wrong although am not a lawyer
(C) An alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence in the United States shall not be regarded as seeking an admission into the United States for purposes of the immigration laws unless the alien-

(i) has abandoned or relinquished that status,

(ii) has been absent from the United States for a continuous period in excess of 180 days,
 
aiguo said:
As per INA 101 (a) (13), i do not think my last sentence is wrong although am not a lawyer
(C) An alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence in the United States shall not be regarded as seeking an admission into the United States for purposes of the immigration laws unless the alien-

(i) has abandoned or relinquished that status,

(ii) has been absent from the United States for a continuous period in excess of 180 days,
Click to expand...

There is a difference between "seeking admission" and being presumed to have abandoned residency. All "seeking admission" means is that the CBP will ask you some questions to determine residency if you have been out for longer than 6 months. 12 months is when you are deemed to have abandoned residency, and THAT is the critical time because that is when they simply do not allow you back in. That is usually what people mean when they ask how long they are allowed to be out.
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/maintaining-permanent-residence
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/international-travel-permanent-resident

In any case the CBP can ask even if you have been out less than 6 months, as happened to me too. It is all about intent. That is why I had lots of questions after a 5 month absence but my family had almost none after 11 months (as they were coming in on a one way ticket)
 
SusieQQQ said:
There is a difference between "seeking admission" and being presumed to have abandoned residency. All "seeking admission" means is that the CBP will ask you some questions to determine residency if you have been out for longer than 6 months. 12 months is when you are deemed to have abandoned residency, and THAT is the critical time because that is when they simply do not allow you back in. That is usually what people mean when they ask how long they are allowed to be out.
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/maintaining-permanent-residence
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/international-travel-permanent-resident

In any case the CBP can ask even if you have been out less than 6 months, as happened to me too. It is all about intent. That is why I had lots of questions after a 5 month absence but my family had almost none after 11 months (as they were coming in on a one way ticket)
Click to expand...
well understood
 
laleh said:
thx for your reply
yes i'm from iran
well he says he has had diploma and 10 years of experience in a car painting factory.
actually he is a member of our persian forum which is for dv-selectees
and i just have these info. that he has shared.
so, u mean we should prepare our cv, travel history,..... and take them to embassy as well.
well ofcourse i have Msc degree and 15 years job experience but should prepare the docs u mentioned with myself just in case.
thx alot for sharing your opinion
Click to expand...

What Britsimon says is correct. Don't let what the failed applicant said put you off.
Since you are travelling to another country for your interview, it is best to bring along as much information and documents as possible to avoid or at least reduce the chance of being put on AP. Since you are from Iran, the chances if being put on AP for security reasons are high, but you don't want to be put on AP for lack of documentation or proof of support and other things that you can avoid. If you have an MSc from a recognised university, then your qualification is not a problem, but bringing along a CV. I have heard of someone with a PhD put on AP until he could produce his CV. Also previous passports that may have visa stamps in them will help the visa officer and may help you avoid unnecessary delays. If you can prove you won't be a public charge, and have the qualification point covered and not suffering from any communicable diseases or have a drug problem, then your main issue is going to be the FBI check. Not much you can do about that other than wait for it to come through.
Good luck.
 
Martin9 said:
What Britsimon says is correct. Don't let what the failed applicant said put you off.
Since you are travelling to another country for your interview, it is best to bring along as much information and documents as possible to avoid or at least reduce the chance of being put on AP. Since you are from Iran, the chances if being put on AP for security reasons are high, but you don't want to be put on AP for lack of documentation or proof of support and other things that you can avoid. If you have an MSc from a recognised university, then your qualification is not a problem, but bringing along a CV. I have heard of someone with a PhD put on AP until he could produce his CV. Also previous passports that may have visa stamps in them will help the visa officer and may help you avoid unnecessary delays. If you can prove you won't be a public charge, and have the qualification point covered and not suffering from any communicable diseases or have a drug problem, then your main issue is going to be the FBI check. Not much you can do about that other than wait for it to come through.
Good luck.
Click to expand...
thx so much for your reply.
now i feel more confident.
i have prepared all docs u mentioned :CV, previous Visas, travel history to Europe, bank account (according to 2014 poverty guidelines of USA)
now just waiting for 2nd letter
my case no. is low but unfortunately i found out dv-results late.
my hope is for march interview.
you guys r really helpful in this forum, i really appreciate it.
 
Britsimon said:
There is more to the story you are not being told. He either needed to qualify on education OR work experience. His work experience would not have qualified him as it sounds like it was at the wrong level. I suspect his education was not up to the standard, or perhaps he failed to meet the public charge requirements (which is another reason the current job might be mentioned).
Click to expand...
dear Britsimon
thank a lot for sharing opinion and guidance
you are really helpful in this forum
i really appreciate it
now i feel more confident about my case and just waiting for my 2nd letter :)
 
Britsimon said:
On the cases that are scheduled for interview, we have the family numbers. However, for those cases "at NVC" etc we only know there is a case - we don't yet have the family. So if you look at the total number of cases (76646) all the 125k will be on those cases (we might be missing a few cases but not many).

Ready is a scheduled case that is not yet reporting a status . It might mean that case was not yet interviewed, or the interview happened but the case did not update. We also see some embassies that leave the case at READY status when in fact the case is on AP, or fail to update the derivatives when the principal case has already been decided.

Transfer is when a case is moving from one embassy to another.

About non responses - we don't have an accurate % for that. The data last year wasn't as comprehensive as this year. We only saw cases that were scheduled in CEAC and that meant all those that responded but never went current were not visible to us. That not current section must have been significant because the cutoffs were in place way below the max numbers (AF max number was 116k, only 81100 current. AS max number was around 23k, only 13350 current. EU max case was 56k only 40150 current and so on. However, from those that got current we had about 78k people in the CEAC data I think it is likely that the not current cases would have been another 15 to 20k. So - I "assume" that non responses are probably around 25% globally.
Click to expand...


Well understood Britsimon, thanks.
 
Last edited:
Britsimon said:
Your case number is already current - and has been for some time. However the email you got means your forms have not been processed yet - because you sent them very late. The forms will probably be completed (processed) in about 1 to 2 months from now - so you can expect an interview no sooner than April, but more likely in May or perhaps even June. However - that is still fine - you will get your interview and there will still be places left for you.
Click to expand...
do this normally affect the cutoffs and case risk to high case numbers?
 
AF region


Sorry, I am internalizing these data as we continue. Now, first of all which countries in Africa are limited? I thought it is only Ethiopia and Egypt as per VB.Second
what is the maximum number of visas a country can be allocated and does that mean that all limited countries will not receive any more visas after that which by extension implies that more holes will be created? Example Ghana will max at 15000( at least according to Britsimon analysis) does that therefore mean that any cn in Ghana higher than 15000 will not be interviewed and what implications does that have to high cns, by the way I don't understand what we mean by limited, I thought it means the limited countries will receive less visas than the other countries. Also if it means that limited countries cns are concentrated in the lower cns it means they have an upper hand than the rest according to my understanding.
 
Last edited:
gitma said:
AF region


Sorry, I am internalizing these data as we continue. Now, first of all which countries in Africa are limited? I thought it is only Ethiopia and Egypt as per VB.Second
what is the maximum number of visas a country can be allocated and does that mean that all limited countries will not receive any more visas after that which by extension implies that more holes will be created? Example Ghana will max at 15000( at least according to Britsimon analysis) does that therefore mean that any cn in Ghana higher than 15000 will not be interviewed and what implications does that have to high cns, by the way I don't understand what we mean by limited, I thought it means the limited countries will receive less visas than the other countries. Also if it means that limited countries cns are concentrated in the lower cns it means they have an upper hand than the rest according to my understanding.
Click to expand...


There are two sorts of limits that you are mixing up.

The first limit is clearly explained in the holes theory post on my website. It is a limit placed on the country during the draw process. Too many entries come from certain countries and so during the draw when they reach enough winners from that country they simply knock out the remaining winners from that country. The impact of that is to create the holes and reduction in density that the graph above clearly shows. The higher the number of entries, the sooner the country meets the draw limit. There are 3 countries limited for certain (Ghana, Egypt and Ethiopia), but there is at least one more country limited (either DRC, Liberia or Cameroon). Of this second group you could argue that all three are in fact limited (based on the fact that none of them exceed the 5000 selectees limit) but it appears a to be a fairly significant drop in density at about 52 - 54k - which might be a 4th country or it could even be two of the countries maxing out at about the same time.

The other sort of limit is applied during the visa issuing process. The law says no one country can exceed more than 7% of the available visas (50k) in any year. So there is a limit in place of 3500 visas to any one country. By using NACARA visas that limit can be 7% of 55000 (3850). So we could see a country max out that 7% limit. However, to do that a country needs a lot of selectees and a high success rate. Only two countries in the world have a chance of doing that - Nepal and Egypt. To avoid calling people to interview when a country is close to the 7% limit, KCC can leave a VB limit in place at the end of the year (as happened in DV2014 with Egypt at 32250 and Nepal at 9500).

The other monthly limits in the VB that we see at the moment for Egypt and Ethiopia is to control the pace of their workload - so that they don't have to process all the work in the first 3 or 4 months of the year. Ghana embassy doesn't seem to need that control of pace, possibly because Ghanaian selectees have a high refusal rate (a refusal is less work that a visa issued), or possibly because the agents have created winners to blackmail and many of those cases don't show up for the interviews - thus reducing the workload.
 
One more question.I have opened my case but have not made any changes.I was just checking.Does it matter?Will it take longer to process my case than it was supposed to?
 
happyhappy89 said:
I see.So it's wrong information
Click to expand...

No.

1. The scheduling happens at the beginning of the month. So, if you miss that by a few days - you lose an extra month. That is not to say the processing takes that extra month - because it depends on when you submit it.
2. The processing is not "finite". No one can say it takes 4 month, or 4.5 months or 5.175 months. Times are generally in the 4 to 5 month range - we hope they will be getting less.
3. Two selectees submitting on the same day might get their forms processed at different times. It could depend on how many people on the DS260, where those people have lived or traveled and whether they have name similarities to people on no fly lists.

So - stop trying to get to a precise date about this - it isn't "binary"...
 
happyhappy89 said:
One more question.I have opened my case but have not made any changes.I was just checking.Does it matter?Will it take longer to process my case than it was supposed to?
Click to expand...

And that is another example of not being able to apply a generalization.

If you changed a minor detail (such as the address you plan to live in in the USA), then that will cause little or no delay. If on the other hand you remembered you lived in a different country for 1 year or you are adding a spouse because you got married, then you can expect there to be some delay....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top