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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

Britsimon said:
Regarding the 56XXX - that wasn't the highest number to get a visa - that was the highest case number (equivalent to the 45006). What that means is that everyone with a number between EU40150 and EU56XXX never went current. That is a lot of people - and that is kind of my point. EU has almost as many selectees this year as DV2014. There is, we believe, a small increase in the quota for EU but it is not enough to give everyone a visa, unless refusal and no show/non response rates are dramatically different this year.

About density. That is the number of actual cases per 1000 cases (remembering that there are many holes). Essentially you can think of it this way. Almost as many selectees are squeezed into those 45006 cases as needed 56XXX last year. So - your number is much higher than the same number last year. 44 out of 56 was one thing - but you are 44 out of 45. If you check your number against the spreadsheet you can see exactly how many cases are in front of you and behind you.

So - honestly - I think you should not try at all. Since you have rightly identified the immigrant intent downside of applying you have to weigh that against your chances of going current - which I think is very very low - almost no chance.

By all means see if that changes as we get through the next couple of VBs. I haven't wanted to make VB predictions because VBs are hard to guess and for fear that people would assume my (more important) year end predictions were just more bad guesses. However, I think you need some sort of "sign" to help make your decision - so I will share my thoughts with you.

I think EU will slow down slightly. I believe KCC will try to get close to or at the final number by August interviews. So - if I am right they only need to get to 37/38 by August. The DS260 backlog has forced them to get ahead on the VB progress but completing DS260s will yield schedulable cases within the existing VB numbers - so I would not be surprised to see a slow down in VB progress and I would expect that by May we will have lost the advantage compared to last year - so EU might be around 30 to 31k for the May interviews and then only increase by 2 to 3 k per month from then on (stopping in August).

If you were to submit, the last month you could conceivably do that is April (March would be safer). If you get mixed up with the May 5 (DV2016) workload, then you won't have time to be processed. So - I suggest wait until we see the CEAC data for the early March and perhaps the April VB (published early March). If that VB is dramatically higher than 31k then you would have cause to feel more hopeful.

One last thing. I am noticing visas issued are behind where they should be. That could change in the next few weeks - which is why I mention the CEAC data - that is another good clue as to what is going on.

Sorry for the long post - I hope it helps. If anything is still unclear - ask again.
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Dear Britsimon,

I asked you about our case about a month ago (see details above). I want to thank you again for taking the time to offer your precious analysis and advice.

Given that new data has arrived during the past weeks, I wanted to check again with you and see whether some of your recommendations have changed in the meantime.

(Btw, we still haven't submitted our DS260, but if we are going to do so at all, it will have to happen within the next week or so, as you yourself suggested in an earlier post. Therefore, it is now time to make the final decision, and I would really appreciate any further thoughts on our case before we make it.)

Thank you!
 
sextus empiricus said:
Dear Britsimon,

I asked you about our case about a month ago (see details above). I want to thank you again for taking the time to offer your precious analysis and advice.

Given that new data has arrived during the past weeks, I wanted to check again with you and see whether some of your recommendations have changed in the meantime.

(Btw, we still haven't submitted our DS260, but if we are going to do so at all, it will have to happen within the next week or so, as you yourself suggested in an earlier post. Therefore, it is now time to make the final decision, and I would really appreciate any further thoughts on our case before we make it.)

Thank you!
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Hi again. I wrote that in late Jan. Since then we have seen two VBs and the slowdown I predicted by May did actually happen. Further to that, we can now clearly see that DS260 backlog cases made up around half the EU interviews for May (we will have confirmation about that in the next couple of days), and probably will for June also. That confirms what I had thought back in January that the rapid progress in the VB was simply for the DS260 backlog and we will therefore see a final number around the same number as last year, or possibly slightly less. I still am very doubtful that EU44XXX will get an interview.

So yes, if you are to file your DS260 at all, you need to be doing it in the next week or so. The processing time up to now has not got faster - although I am thinking this month could be the month where we start to see an increase in pace (purely because most DS260s must have been submitted by October/November - surely).

I wish I had better news for you - but nope.
 
Dear Britsimon,

Thanks again for your quick response.

Yes, many of the things you predicted back than have actually happened, which is why I take your analyses and predictions very seriously. But on the other hand, as you may imagine, I am still trying to find some way squeeze a glimmer of rational hope out of this pessimistic situation.

One thing that has been puzzling me quite a bit is why for a number of years (2006-2013) EU cutoff numbers always reached the "Current" status, while in 2014 the last cutoff number was 40150, which was reached already in August (I got this data from your blog - thanks for posting that!)? It looks like something radically unusual happened in 2014 compared to the previous years, and I was wondering whether you have any possible explanations of this. This would then be helpful for comparing 2014 with 2015, and perhaps some interesting conclusions could be drawn from this comparison.
 
Britsimon said:
It got a bit easier. We got more information recently - the full list of entries for 2014 and 2015. That meant we could see the relative increase in density between Nepal and Iran - and it proves that Nepal will max pretty low in the numbers (low 8XXX range), but because of the density in Nepal that probably won't happen until August. I was then able to calculate the cases per 1000 for all the AS countries - and basing the success rate on 2014 I can see pretty clearly how things are going. The model is a bit complex and since I get some really basic questions when I post spreadsheets I was in two minds about posting that - and thought I would go through another 2NL/prediction cycle.

Also - AS has issued 2777 as of today with around 900 cases of AP (mostly Iranian cases on AP in Ankara). I expect the Iranian AP cases to start clearing soon and we can assume that the majority of those cases will be approved. So - the pace of issuance in AS will be picking up very soon....
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Do you mean that since Nepal had about 280k more entries this year, it created higher Nepalese density but narrower Nepalese rage? (comparing to last year)
I would very much like to see the model that you created after 2nl cycle. Will try not to ask basic questions;)
 
sextus empiricus said:
Dear Britsimon,

Thanks again for your quick response.

Yes, many of the things you predicted back than have actually happened, which is why I take your analyses and predictions very seriously. But on the other hand, as you may imagine, I am still trying to find some way squeeze a glimmer of rational hope out of this pessimistic situation.

One thing that has been puzzling me quite a bit is why for a number of years (2006-2013) EU cutoff numbers always reached the "Current" status, while in 2014 the last cutoff number was 40150, which was reached already in August (I got this data from your blog - thanks for posting that!)? It looks like something radically unusual happened in 2014 compared to the previous years, and I was wondering whether you have any possible explanations of this. This would then be helpful for comparing 2014 with 2015, and perhaps some interesting conclusions could be drawn from this comparison.
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For years they had been selecting about 100/105k selectees - and that seemed to work well - always getting pretty close to the target. Then in 2014 they increase to 140k we don't know why. That was too many selectees. 125k this year is also too many...
 
It's a strange one, isn't it? They select too many in 125k but then you get KCC contacting people reminding them they have won.
 
OK, that makes sense.

Another thing: can you, or anybody else on this forum that you know of, provide more detailed information and advice on how submitting DS260 could affect those who are already in the U.S. in some non-immigrant status like F-1 or J-1? I am trying to assess more precisely the amount of risk involved in proceeding with filing the DS260, and knowing more details about how that would reflect on our current and future immigrant status would help a lot. If the potential loss is not too great, then it would make sense to file DS260 even if the chances of actually getting the green card are low (there would be a lot to gain, and little to lose); on the other hand, if the potential loss is great, that obviously changes the equation.
 
sextus empiricus said:
OK, that makes sense.

Another thing: can you, or anybody else on this forum that you know of, provide more detailed information and advice on how submitting DS260 could affect those who are already in the U.S. in some non-immigrant status like F-1 or J-1? I am trying to assess more precisely the amount of risk involved in proceeding with filing the DS260, and knowing more details about how that would reflect on our current and future immigrant status would help a lot. If the potential loss is not too great, then it would make sense to file DS260 even if the chances of actually getting the green card are low (there would be a lot to gain, and little to lose); on the other hand, if the potential loss is great, that obviously changes the equation.
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I think Mom would be able to explain that best - but ultimately it is going to be your call. To be honest - if it were me - I would probably take the gamble!

About the numbers... your fate and the numbers in AS region are controlled by Iranian selectees. I need to look at my numbers again. I'm thinking the reduction in Iranian entries we saw this year might give you a glimmer of hope. For Iranian entries, a high percentage of cases go on AP - and if that AP takes 4 or 5 months to resolve then we can almost say that Iranian cases in the system after the latest 2NLs (8 months worth) will be the successful Iranian cases. Quite honestly - in that case they may not even have enough cases in the system to reach the targets I have assumed in my model (last year's numbers). In that case - that would leave more for RoA and we would see a higher final number.
 
Hi all,

My case number is: 2015AF00038xxx

I checked the VB and the CN for May is 32700. I was surprised to see only a small increase from April to May (only 2000 more). 2014 VB showed 37900 for May, so I started to get a bit worried.

So can you please answer these questions:

1- Do you think there is still a chance to get an interview before the fiscal year, and what would be your estimate?
2- I submitted my DS-260 on May 19th 2014, has KCC already started processing it or they will they wait until my number is current?
3- If the CN becomes current for me, what are the steps to follow, just wait until you receive KCC email about the interview? How long do you usually have to wait to hear back from them from the date your CN is current?
4- As an example, the next VB for May will include CNs for May (which is already known) and for the month of June. If we assume that the CN for June is higher than my number (38xxx), will KCC wait until June to schedule an appointment or will it happen sooner?

Thanks for your help.
 
olemtiri said:
Hi all,

My case number is: 2015AF00038xxx

I checked the VB and the CN for May is 32700. I was surprised to see only a small increase from April to May (only 2000 more). 2014 VB showed 37900 for May, so I started to get a bit worried.

So can you please answer these questions:

1- Do you think there is still a chance to get an interview before the fiscal year, and what would be your estimate?
2- I submitted my DS-260 on May 19th 2014, has KCC already started processing it or they will they wait until my number is current?
3- If the CN becomes current for me, what are the steps to follow, just wait until you receive KCC email about the interview? How long do you usually have to wait to hear back from them from the date your CN is current?
4- As an example, the next VB for May will include CNs for May (which is already known) and for the month of June. If we assume that the CN for June is higher than my number (38xxx), will KCC wait until June to schedule an appointment or will it happen sooner?
Thanks for your help.
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please visit www.britsimonsays.com and you will get all the answers to your question. thanks to Britsimon
 
Britsimon said:
I think Mom would be able to explain that best - but ultimately it is going to be your call. To be honest - if it were me - I would probably take the gamble!

About the numbers... your fate and the numbers in AS region are controlled by Iranian selectees. I need to look at my numbers again. I'm thinking the reduction in Iranian entries we saw this year might give you a glimmer of hope. For Iranian entries, a high percentage of cases go on AP - and if that AP takes 4 or 5 months to resolve then we can almost say that Iranian cases in the system after the latest 2NLs (8 months worth) will be the successful Iranian cases. Quite honestly - in that case they may not even have enough cases in the system to reach the targets I have assumed in my model (last year's numbers). In that case - that would leave more for RoA and we would see a higher final number.
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Iran doesn't have as much control as nepal does

I doubt asia will be as high as last year, probably 11,250 or even less
 
Britsimon said:
I think Mom would be able to explain that best - but ultimately it is going to be your call. To be honest - if it were me - I would probably take the gamble!

About the numbers... your fate and the numbers in AS region are controlled by Iranian selectees. I need to look at my numbers again. I'm thinking the reduction in Iranian entries we saw this year might give you a glimmer of hope. For Iranian entries, a high percentage of cases go on AP - and if that AP takes 4 or 5 months to resolve then we can almost say that Iranian cases in the system after the latest 2NLs (8 months worth) will be the successful Iranian cases. Quite honestly - in that case they may not even have enough cases in the system to reach the targets I have assumed in my model (last year's numbers). In that case - that would leave more for RoA and we would see a higher final number.
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I thought that sextus empiricus is from EU.
In any case, you have no idea how inspiring it is to here - "higher AS final" from Britsimon san. Cause we have faith that our pastor-figure would not preach optimism for nothing.
 
Sensei-san said:
I thought that sextus empiricus is from EU.
In any case, you have no idea how inspiring it is to here - "higher AS final" from Britsimon san. Cause we have faith that our pastor-figure would not preach optimism for nothing.
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The reason for the optimism is the density of Iranian cases, and the fact that Iranian AP will probably mean we will know the Iranian pool quite soon. I am beginning to doubt they can even get to 2000 selectees because they only have about 220 cases per thousand and will be effectively cutoff by about CN6000. Cases after that point (July onwards) don't have time to process. See what I mean?
 
Britsimon said:
The reason for the optimism is the density of Iranian cases, and the fact that Iranian AP will probably mean we will know the Iranian pool quite soon. I am beginning to doubt they can even get to 2000 selectees because they only have about 220 cases per thousand and will be effectively cutoff by about CN6000. Cases after that point (July onwards) don't have time to process. See what I mean?
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In my quick calculation there are a bit more cases per 1000, but I see your point. Thank you.
 
sextus empiricus said:
OK, that makes sense.

Another thing: can you, or anybody else on this forum that you know of, provide more detailed information and advice on how submitting DS260 could affect those who are already in the U.S. in some non-immigrant status like F-1 or J-1? I am trying to assess more precisely the amount of risk involved in proceeding with filing the DS260, and knowing more details about how that would reflect on our current and future immigrant status would help a lot. If the potential loss is not too great, then it would make sense to file DS260 even if the chances of actually getting the green card are low (there would be a lot to gain, and little to lose); on the other hand, if the potential loss is great, that obviously changes the equation.
Click to expand...

If you're already in the US and plan on processing AOS, I would actually suggest, in your case, you hold off on the submission of the DS-260 form for now. You can submit it after the VB that shows your CN as being current comes out, it will not impact your AOS petition. But if you're processing CP, then that's a different ball game altogether.

As to the impact of submitting the DS-260 form for someone who is already in the US on a NIV visa status whose CN does not become current, well the impact is minimal for as long as you're still within the US. The declared immigrant intent will probably not be taken into consideration if processing a change of status from one NIV status to another or when trying to renew a current visa status with USCIS.

On the other hand, the effect of a declared immigrant intent will probably come into play if you were to leave the US and are required to apply for a new visa to enable you return. The embassy may not approve/issue the visa because of that previously declared immigrant intent.
 
Today was my interview and my Visa got approved . QuestionS was sample nothing about where i want to move or leave , very sample .

Special thanks to the team over here ....8 month when i start following up this fourm my experience was nothing regarding DV process , and with the help of the admin , i could overcome all of that .

Thanks to @Britsimon @Sm1smom and ofcourse to the other people that help me with my question .
 
MM2015 said:
Today was my interview and my Visa got approved . QuestionS was sample nothing about where i want to move or leave , very sample .

Special thanks to the team over here ....8 month when i start following up this fourm my experience was nothing regarding DV process , and with the help of the admin , i could overcome all of that .

Thanks to @Britsimon @Sm1smom and ofcourse to the other people that help me with my question .
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Cool! Congratulations!!
 
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