siliconeslinger
Member
Yeah two posts to be exact, one was "fuck nepal" and the other "f nepal"
Yeah i was indeed happy, if it would mean higher cn... Turns out it doesn't.
DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+
- Thread starter Elmar
- Start date
Yeah two posts to be exact, one was "fuck nepal" and the other "f nepal"
Yeah i was indeed happy, if it would mean higher cn... Turns out it doesn't.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
My god, your selfishness knows no bounds.
Of course this is all about you, and nothing about what you think is fair.
If you were Nepalese with a number above the Nepalese cutoff you would probably be lambasting kcc for that now.
Happy knowing visas going to those who deserve them. Your bad karma is coming back to bite you.
You make me seriously sick to my stomach. I should have blocked you a long time ago, definitely doing it now so I don't have to read any more of your vitriolic bile.
siliconeslinger
Member
Like those Nepalese aren't selfish themselves
In the facebook group.. Someone wishes for nepal number to reach 10,000 while asia stays at 8000, they last out at kfc for separating the cut-off
Nepalese = most selfish dv selectees. They've been given 10 months yet still ask for more.
Block me if you feel like it.. Go ahead.. I'm not one to post hypocritical comments such as "sorry for the earthquake i hope the interviews aren't affected even if it would mean lower cn for roa"
My posts are not sugar-coated
Good evening people! Another bleak VB for AS region. Honestly it's been quite tough drawing high CNs 2 years in a row (2014 and 2015) only to miss out though 2015 isn't quite done and dusted yet. Stalking the VB for 2 years is quite exhausting lol and I was more optimistic for 2015 when they had less selectees. I do agree with some of the members of the forum that they really need to do something different to cope/counter with the Nepal/Iran issues, maybe put more in the AS regional quota especially if one of the other regions looks like it may undershoot. KCC needs to learn to adapt and roll with the punches during the fiscal year. I'm currently on H1-B and would have gone through AOS process if my number got current.
On a DV unrelated note, do any of the experts here also moonlight or can point me to an H1-B to AOS thread so I can start pursuing that route more seriously. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
On a DV unrelated note, do any of the experts here also moonlight or can point me to an H1-B to AOS thread so I can start pursuing that route more seriously. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
OK - this is exactly what is posted. So - look below at what I said about maturing - that is obviously about the issued rate (I said "ROA has been taking").
So - between what I posted and what I said I had posted, what had I NOT told you?
And yeah condescension isn't necessary and as I am a 50 year oldman trying to help you for free I think you could rethink and apologize for your accusation!
HERE is what I posted.
OK – so along the same idea as the Africa example, I wanted to publish some thoughts on what is happening/will happen in Asia.
From the extract I posted on Friday there is some interesting data.
First – Nepal.
The file shows KDU embassy have issued about 200 visas since the beginning of the month – which is pretty amazing given they were closed for the first week of the month due to the earthquake. It seems like KDU embassy is interviewing again and will be able to process it’s cases. As of now, Nepal has 2217 issued visas. 2127 of those are below 4725 – the highest CN for April. Dividing 2127 by 4.725 gives the issued per 1000 rate – 450. Now we know that Nepal will probably get cutoff at 3500 or so and a few visas will go on AoS cases – but if the issued rate continues at this pace we could say 3500/450 would give us the likely cutoff point for Nepal which is 7777. In reality I expect a few more cases under 4725 to be approved AND I think the cutoff may be applied slightly earlier because of AoS cases. On the other hand, the earthquake may have affected a few families who decided not to leave their homeland at this time. So – I now think the cutoff for Nepal could be around 7300 to 7800, most likely around 7500.
Having said that. From a region point of view, the story in Nepal is academic. Nepal will hit the max – there is no doubt about that. So – we can assume Nepal takes 3500 visas from the quota (and the quota for AS region is around 8300 to 8500, with around 500 going to AoS cases. Let us optimistically say the Nepal leaves 4800 to 5000 visas remaining for Iran and the rest of Asia (ROA). Given that there will be Aos cases from that 4800 to 5000, we should work on 4500 remaining.
So – Iran.
I have been explaining for some months that Iran is the key to how high the final number goes for Asia. In DV2013, Iran took over 3500 visas. But then in DV2014 something changed and Nepal only took 2300 visas – a huge reduction. The difference was AP cases (Administrative Processing). Cases in the last 4 or 5 months that went on AP had no time to complete and many Iranian AP cases missed out. So the question for Asia this year has been would Iran take 2300 or something higher.
Well the CEAC file on Friday reveals there has been a very noticeable jump in issued visas at the 3 embassies that handle Iranian cases. I think that is a sign that AP cases that started in December January and perhaps even February are being approved. Iran appears to have doubled its issued number in the last 6 weeks. If that pace continues, Iran could take 2700, perhaps even 3000 visas. Since Iranian cases are all concentrated below CN8200, that means they will be current before the higher case numbers in Asia. So – from our 4500 visas we can take at least 2700. That leaves 1800 visas for ROA.
Rest of Asia (ROA)
Up to now, ROA has been taking 130 visas per 1000, and that number is maturing (DS260 cases completing) – meaning it will probably end up at something around 140/1000 – probably a bit more (maybe as high as 150).
So if we assume the issued rate for ROA is 140 that would mean we could see 12850, and at 150 per 1000 we would see 12000. It seems clear we will not see a final number for ROA higher than 13000, and realistically cases in the 11XXX and 12XXX range are going to have a nervous wait. We need to keep an eye on the Iran rate.
Of course we need to see the 2NLs to see if anything changes and I will be watching the Iranian cases. I will issue an update if anything changes.
Sensei-san
Active Member
No doubt, he was not far off with his predictions, but not with "his comments".
siliconeslinger
Member
Sensei-san
Active Member
You keep saying that VB is not fair. And asking why Iran and Nepal are concentrated below 9,000.
In the selection, they assign case numbers to Iran, Nepal and ROA, say up to 2o,000 CNs. In any one 1000 CNs (up to 20k) there would be 320 Iranian cases, 350 Nepalese and 330 ROAs. If KCC had let Nepal go up to 20,000, Nepal would have had 7000 cases or 11,480 people. Which is too much for 3500 visas. Instead, they limited Nepal and Iran in the selection process at 5000 people each. And they did not notify the CNs above 8,600 for Iran, 9,100 for Nepal, and 19,171 for ROA.
So this "unfairness" has nothing to do with VB. It is just the natural outcome of the relative proportions of entrants from Iran, Nepal and ROA.
KCC is not in the position to judge whether a given selection is fair or not to any single counrty. Their only concern is to issue a quota of visas using the CNs in numerical order. Since the quota is likely to be reached, Iran and Nepal do not slow down the region. The two counties are rightfully taking up their visas acccording to thier CNs.
Sensei-san
Active Member
Silicon's comments about Nepal sound 100% moronic. This is his problem, who cares. This is just ugly side of the freedom of expression. We do not know whether there would have been Nepalese individuals with similar attitudes towards Indonesia, had the situation been reversed.
I would be more wary of individuals sending pms to Silicon. The conformists on the surface, who is more comfortable with supporting Silicon's doctrine from the shadow.
I would be more wary of individuals sending pms to Silicon. The conformists on the surface, who is more comfortable with supporting Silicon's doctrine from the shadow.
Please sir, what do you think will be the final cutoff? If you had to make a wild guess.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
NaraLB, I meant to say this yesterday.....your post below makes a lot of sense to me, thank you.
Oh, youre welcome, as I said just some random ideas that popped into my head. And to all memebrs, I don't want you to lose hope because of what I said, I wish that I'm wrong and that we'll see a HUGE jump for AS next month.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
To sum it up for ROA, I think we are facing 3 potential issueS
- Surge of backlog cases - at this point, it's unlikely (I know the in-transit file is a bit mess up, but I managed to run some calc)
- Increased Iran AP clearance - which has some impact, but not to the point to reduce the VB this much in Aug
- Reduced regional quota - which I have no clue as to why this might happen. The VB pace will be behind IMO by EOM
- VO is thinking the pace is too fast last yr, so the overall AS pace will be a little slower to start with
- VO is looking at the late May issue number to determine whether we are on track or not. At end of May, we are identical to last yr
- However, we are on track because of Nepal, which I think the disconnect will start to show mid Jun, but too late for Aug cut off
- Remember Nepal and Iran is flipped compared to last yr in terms of proportion? But Nepal is going to max unlike Iran and will do so much faster. In other words, Nepal is still driving the pace of AS
- I am a bit shocked by calling Nepal to 7150, in my calculation, they should max around 69-70xx. As said in earlier post, we might be yet to see the full blunt of the disaster Nepal is facing, meaning those who got affected might have trouble obtaining documents for interview, hence a slightly higher cut off
- IMO, Iran will not max, especially being limited by the low cut offs, 5950, 6850, 7650.....The less Iranian going in AP also means less coming out
- There might be a AP batch coming through, the VO is waiting for. Last yr, it happened between June 3 and July 2.
- I am putting my money on Iran will not max, Nepal will not move for Sept and ROA will see a reasonable jump. Knowing that I am biased since I have a high number like all of you, this might be some wishful thinking. However, number don't lie....at the moment I have no reason to believe an equal pace final.
- A final word on capacity. ROA would have the lowest impact on capacity since it's spread across some 60-70 post. PHP and CLM might have a spike but not something they can't handle.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
I think you are right on the money.
Just a side note, the family ratio between 5950-6850 is quite high, we have quite a bit of 3-7 members family.
FSW2015
Active Member
Thank you for the analysis!
Can you please explain what you mean by these 2 phrases "The VB pace will be behind IMO by EOM" and
"However, number don't lie....at the moment I have no reason to believe an equal pace final."
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Sure.
The VB pace will be behind...... by behind, I mean behind last year.
You see, thanks to the work of 2 other members, we have some extracts from 2014. At the beginning of each month, we have the number of visa issued. For example, last yr on Jun 3, we have 4419 visa issued. We have about 4400 this year.
Based on rate that we observed, we will start to fall behind this issued number by mid month. Of course these rate can change, but we have a lot of cases/number since the beginning of the year, which means the "average" rate is not going to move a lot at this point.
However, number don't lie....at the moment I have no reason to believe an equal pace final.
As it sounds, I don't believe the we will see the 800-900 CN range jump for Sept in short. Before we jump to any conclusion, I am sure you will ask why are we looking for CN jump?
You are correct. The CN jump is a function of a lot of factors such as response rate, approval rate and burnt through rate...
So how can we achieve a "low" CN jump and get the same visa issued?
It's no magic. By backlog cases (visually no CN jump , yet producing cases) , batch AP clearance, reduction of quota (which is the most worrisome for me right now)
Why should I think about reduction of quota? That's for another day another discussion.
Last edited:
Sensei-san
Active Member
Here is the historical issued numbers that we talked about in the pm conversation, that includes AOS:
Agian, I had no time to investigate the assumption of the quota estimation. For all I know now, it was estimated to fit historical numbers in one period. Thus, it might contain hindsight bias.
I think it is a good estimation, and I certainly appreciate Roger's work. However, I would treat the quota is one of the unknown variables that we are facing.
Agian, I had no time to investigate the assumption of the quota estimation. For all I know now, it was estimated to fit historical numbers in one period. Thus, it might contain hindsight bias.
I think it is a good estimation, and I certainly appreciate Roger's work. However, I would treat the quota is one of the unknown variables that we are facing.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Not important for the conversation but that 295 for Bangladesh in 2012 can't be right.
Sensei-san
Active Member
No problem. This is from the official TableVII:
Sensei-san
Active Member
May be it has to do with crosscharging or something.