DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

[Britsimon]

when i first won the lottery i looked at my number ok it was highish, but i compared with other years and there was only one year in history of dv where the number was less than 12xxx.........and i never worried at all until around may or so...........i really never could've imagined this kind of thing..........for me it's inexplicable........maybe they're saving this month's "anticipated jump" and adding it on to next month's but who knows...........it doesn't look good fellas

hopefully britsimon can add some insight and give us a glimmer of hope.....

It isn't inexplicable - I have been explaining it for months. Nepal is not the issue - that is why our mutual friends insults toward the country is particularly moronic. Nepal is gonna take the 7% limit. Done. End of discussion. The faster they do that the better.

The "issue" is Iran. In DV2013 they got over 3500 - way over - in fact had to have interviews cancelled in September.

Then in DV2014 they went down to 2300. A swing of around 1400 visas. Now - that 1400 visas represents a HUGE difference to ROA. The difference is pace of Iranian AP processing. So if Iran take 2500 or less, AS could see numbers in the 12XXX range, BUT - as has been reported Iranian AP cases seem to be resolving faster this year than DV2014 - and in that case, perhaps Iran will take 2500 to 3000 visas. That could easily cause a 2000 to 3000 swing for AS as a whole.

 

[siliconeslinger]

It isn't inexplicable - I have been explaining it for months. Nepal is not the issue - that is why our mutual friends insults toward the country is particularly moronic. Nepal is gonna take the 7% limit. Done. End of discussion. The faster they do that the better.

The "issue" is Iran. In DV2013 they got over 3500 - way over - in fact had to have interviews cancelled in September.

Then in DV2014 they went down to 2300. A swing of around 1400 visas. Now - that 1400 visas represents a HUGE difference to ROA. The difference is pace of Iranian AP processing. So if Iran take 2500 or less, AS could see numbers in the 12XXX range, BUT - as has been reported Iranian AP cases seem to be resolving faster this year than DV2014 - and in that case, perhaps Iran will take 2500 to 3000 visas. That could easily cause a 2000 to 3000 swing for AS as a whole.

Knowing this, if they have a good intent they are supposed to handle these two troubling countries differently.. The current method of limiting them near the end of the fy doesn't do justice..


Perhaps separating the numbers from the beginning of the FY. What I've been saying all alonh..like they do to african special countries. This way, asia can live to its full potential while at the same time respecting these two troubling countries right

 

[siliconeslinger]

This is literally the worse year in the history of Asia Dv Lottery, i really am shocked i never imagined it could be this low........i really odn't know what they did with all the visas......it really doesn't seem possible that it could be this low.

The main culprits

Nepal density is much higher than last year
Iranian ap cases resolve much faster than last year

Both combined are the perfect recipe for a disaster for us roa

Both can actually be solved really easy, just put them on a separate number.. Easy peasy lemon squeeze.. Kfc insists on not doing that though

 

[Britsimon]

Knowing this, if they have a good intent they are supposed to handle these two troubling countries differently.. The current method of limiting them near the end of the fy doesn't do justice..


Perhaps separating the numbers from the beginning of the FY. What I've been saying all alonh..like they do to african special countries. This way, asia can live to its full potential while at the same time respecting these two troubling countries right

Would you PLEASE read the posts I have told you MANY MANY times.

Take Nepal. If they are going to hit 7% anyway, and all their numbers are concentrated in the early number ranges - then they have to do those first. Because that is the law - it is by rank order.

Let me put it another way that maybe you could comprehend.

Let's say they let ROA go to 13000 and AS region visas run out before Nepal hits their limit. That would be against the law. You understand that don't you???

And stop whining about they should be in their own region. THIS is the lottery you entered, not some other lottery where Nepal and Iran are in their own region. So - this was it, stop whining about it and accept your fate with a little grace and humility!

 

[siliconeslinger]

Would you PLEASE read the posts I have told you MANY MANY times.

Take Nepal. If they are going to hit 7% anyway, and all their numbers are concentrated in the early number ranges - then they have to do those first. Because that is the law - it is by rank order.

Let me put it another way that maybe you could comprehend.

Let's say they let ROA go to 13000 and AS region visas run out before Nepal hits their limit. That would be against the law. You understand that don't you???

And stop whining about they should be in their own region. THIS is the lottery you entered, not some other lottery where Nepal and Iran are in their own region. So - this was it, stop whining about it and accept your fate with a little grace and humility!

Somehow they do that to Ukraine Egypt and Ethiopia and still abiding by the law

 

[Britsimon]

Somehow they do that to Ukraine Egypt and Ethiopia and still abiding by the law

Which I have also explained to you in great detail.... you were just too busy throwing a tantrum to read it.

 

[johnelliot344]

"i really odn't know what they did with all the visas", too early to jump to any conclusions, as there is one more Bulletin to come... Ultimately, there will be detailed statistical information in respect to the point you raise, once DV2015 will be completed.

well i had an early 12xxx number 12190 to be exact , i have always been positively inclined so even when people were freakin out i honestly never panicked at all........because really i always thought i had a pretty decent chance...........but this is the last straw..........
my number really doesn't seem possible now, yesterday, it was a good chance for me, im still in shock

they have to add 5000 CNs ? it seems ...jus not good and even the 11xxx which i considered to guaranteed is in quite a bit of doubt
at the risk of soounding like the people i used to criticize............"it's not good" lol


could siliconeslinger be right? are they really giving all the visas to Nepal and Iran and leaving the rest of us with close to nothing? lol who knows.

 

[siliconeslinger]

Which I have also explained to you in great detail.... you were just too busy throwing a tantrum to read it.

You haven't or maybe i didn't see it.
Should put that up over on your blog so people can see it. 5 people pm me agreeing to my words "they should do the same to nepal like they do to Egypt and Ethiopia"

 

[siliconeslinger]

well i had an early 12xxx number 12190 to be exact , i have always been positively inclined so even when people were freakin out i honestly never panicked at all........because really i always thought i had a pretty decent chance...........but this is the last straw..........
my number really doesn't seem possible now, yesterday, it was a good chance for me, im still in shock

they have to add 5000 CNs ? it seems ...jus not good and even the 11xxx which i considered to guaranteed is in quite a bit of doubt
at the risk of soounding like the people i used to criticize............"it's not good" lol


could siliconeslinger be right? are they really giving all the visas to Nepal and Iran and leaving the rest of us with close to nothing? lol who knows.

Those two countries take up 80% of the visa pool in the 0-9000 cn. To put it bluntly, we, ROA, are leftovers.

Close to nothing, perhaps, we only get less than 50%.

That's why i keep on saying they should change the as name to "in" (iran nepall

 

[SusieQQQ]

i don't know if anyone's laughing dude........you're still missing out........i don't know why it gives you so much pleasure to see others go down with you as well

Because if someone is an a*******e about one country don't you think its logical he will be that vindictive in general? He is clearly someone with a huge chip on his shoulder in general (ref the posts about how he thinks is so much better than his own fellow countrymen)
Getting a prediction right doesn't make him any less of a ..word that I can not print if I don't want a ban.

 

[johnelliot344]

It isn't inexplicable - I have been explaining it for months. Nepal is not the issue - that is why our mutual friends insults toward the country is particularly moronic. Nepal is gonna take the 7% limit. Done. End of discussion. The faster they do that the better.

The "issue" is Iran. In DV2013 they got over 3500 - way over - in fact had to have interviews cancelled in September.

Then in DV2014 they went down to 2300. A swing of around 1400 visas. Now - that 1400 visas represents a HUGE difference to ROA. The difference is pace of Iranian AP processing. So if Iran take 2500 or less, AS could see numbers in the 12XXX range, BUT - as has been reported Iranian AP cases seem to be resolving faster this year than DV2014 - and in that case, perhaps Iran will take 2500 to 3000 visas. That could easily cause a 2000 to 3000 swing for AS as a whole.

i understand you brit i really do and im not looking for a fight or questioning it, but i have read your past posts before and you mentioned that if Iran takes 2800 or so the Final CN could be about 12500 or 2700 it could be 12 225 and something in that ball park

my question is do you really think at this point.....that even if there are 1800 left for ROA and the density is lets say around 145/150/1000 cases that it could possibly jump close to 5000 CNs in the last month? because that's what you said before

it just seems like a LOT to jump

 

[siliconeslinger]

i understand you brit i really do and im not looking for a fight or questioning it, but i have read your past posts before and you mentioned that if Iran takes 2800 or so the Final CN could be about 12500 or 2700 it could be 12 225 and something in that ball park

my question is do you really think at this point.....that even if there are 1800 left for ROA and the density is lets say around 145/150/1000 cases that it could possibly jump close to 5000 CNs in the last month? because that's what you said before

it just seems like a LOT to jump

A lot indeed, it'll probably max out at 9500..but i don't see it going above 9.999

Nepal has had its number separated and we still don't have a big jump

 

[Britsimon]

You haven't or maybe i didn't see it.
Should put that up over on your blog so people can see it. 5 people pm me agreeing to my words "they should do the same to nepal like they do to Egypt and Ethiopia"

OK - I'll humor you. Let me explain one more time.

The difference is this.

In Asia The two big countries represent around 80% of the selectees (because they had more than 80% of the entries). Because of the draw process being random, Nepal and Iran selectees occupy the lower ranges. They actually both had large numbers of selectees disqualified.

So - Asia is run by the rank number until Nepal or Iran max out, because their numbers are in the lower ranges. ROA cases are in those lower ranges too and get interviewed. Nepal and Iran highest case numbers are close to the "highest safe range" number for AS, so their cases have to be processed according to rank number. That is the law. That is all clear - right?

OK - why can they handle Egypt and Ethiopia differently.

Egypt has selectees up to around 32/33k. That is MUCH less than the highest safe range number for AF, so they KNOW they can exhaust the Egyptian selectee pool way before the cutoff for the region. Therefore they can afford to spread the processing over a longer period of time - and still get done in time without disadvantaging Egyptian selectees.

Similarly, Ethiopia is exhausted in the early 30's and (unlike Egypt) have a low success rate so cannot possibly threaten the 7%. Therefore they can pace the interviews out and around June/July they reach parity with AF with no disadvantage to Ethiopians.

So - in both cases the max country number is around 50/60% of the minimum last CN for the region (whereas Nepal and Iran are within 80/90%) and the two countries can only take a small portion of the region (as opposed to AS where Nepal and Asia will take the lions share).

What the law does not allow for is a selectee with a lower case number being left out by a country restriction and that visa going to a higher case number for another country UNLESS it is because of the 7% limit. It is the law. Not KCC, not some plan against ROA. Just the laws and the number of entries.

 

[Britsimon]

i understand you brit i really do and im not looking for a fight or questioning it, but i have read your past posts before and you mentioned that if Iran takes 2800 or so the Final CN could be about 12500 or 2700 it could be 12 225 and something in that ball park

my question is do you really think at this point.....that even if there are 1800 left for ROA and the density is lets say around 145/150/1000 cases that it could possibly jump close to 5000 CNs in the last month? because that's what you said before

it just seems like a LOT to jump

No - I think I pointed out that if Iran takes numbers in the 2500 to 3000 range that numbers from 10000 start to get risky. 12XXX needs Iran to take 2500 at very most.

Do I think a 5000 jump can happen in one month. It is technically possible, but as I have been explaining for some weeks now, there is a pace increase happening for Iran, which suggests AP cases being resolved at a fast rate. As those continue, the higher AS numbers start looking riskier and riskier.

 

[siliconeslinger]

OK - I'll humor you. Let me explain one more time.

The difference is this.

In Asia The two big countries represent around 80% of the selectees (because they had more than 80% of the entries). Because of the draw process being random, Nepal and Iran selectees occupy the lower ranges. They actually both had large numbers of selectees disqualified.

So - Asia is run by the rank number until Nepal or Iran max out, because their numbers are in the lower ranges. ROA cases are in those lower ranges too and get interviewed. Nepal and Iran highest case numbers are close to the "highest safe range" number for AS, so their cases have to be processed according to rank number. That is the law. That is all clear - right?

OK - why can they handle Egypt and Ethiopia differently.

Egypt has selectees up to around 32/33k. That is MUCH less than the highest safe range number for AF, so they KNOW they can exhaust the Egyptian selectee pool way before the cutoff for the region. Therefore they can afford to spread the processing over a longer period of time - and still get done in time without disadvantaging Egyptian selectees.

Similarly, Ethiopia is exhausted in the early 30's and (unlike Egypt) have a low success rate so cannot possibly threaten the 7%. Therefore they can pace the interviews out and around June/July they reach parity with AF with no disadvantage to Ethiopians.

So - in both cases the max country number is around 50/60% of the minimum last CN for the region (whereas Nepal and Iran are within 80/90%) and the two countries can only take a small portion of the region (as opposed to AS where Nepal and Asia will take the lions share).

What the law does not allow for is a selectee with a lower case number being left out by a country restriction and that visa going to a higher case number for another country UNLESS it is because of the 7% limit. It is the law. Not KCC, not some plan against ROA. Just the laws and the number of entries.

If the draw process is random then why the heck do Nepalese and Iranians selectees are concentrated in the 0-9000? Shouldn't those Nepalese and Iranians cases be spread out over the 0-20,000 cns?
Doesn't seem "random" at all.

Disqualified, more like not selected, just like other non iranian/nepalese cases. It's not like the message is "you've been selected but Disqualified prematurely because your country has hit the limit"

So once these two troubling countries max out asia isn't run by the rank number? Then by what?

Yeah without disadvantaging nepal and iran but disadvantaging roa, seems fair.

 

[johnelliot344]

No - I think I pointed out that if Iran takes numbers in the 2500 to 3000 range that numbers from 10000 start to get risky. 12XXX needs Iran to take 2500 at very most.

Do I think a 5000 jump can happen in one month. It is technically possible, but as I have been explaining for some weeks now, there is a pace increase happening for Iran, which suggests AP cases being resolved at a fast rate. As those continue, the higher AS numbers start looking riskier and riskier.

maybe you did point that out in another forum but i did read a quote from you talking about if Iran gets 1800 Asia could get 12400 or soemthing

it doesn't really matter anymore anyway

 

[Britsimon]

If the draw process is random then why the heck do Nepalese and Iranians selectees are concentrated in the 0-9000? Shouldn't those Nepalese and Iranians cases be spread out over the 0-20,000 cns?
Doesn't seem "random" at all.

Disqualified, more like not selected, just like other non iranian/nepalese cases. It's not like the message is "you've been selected but Disqualified prematurely because your country has hit the limit"

So once these two troubling countries max out asia isn't run by the rank number? Then by what?

Yeah without disadvantaging nepal and iran but disadvantaging roa, seems fair.

Right - so you really don't listen AT ALL do you - but you just keep talking without understanding anything. That is very disrespectful when I have spent precious time explaining to you!!! Again - I have explained this here before - and I know I have explained Nepal/Iran to you in great detail.

This explains how the draw is conducted -= http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/

 

[siliconeslinger]

Right - so you really don't listen AT ALL do you - but you just keep talking without understanding anything. That is very disrespectful when I have spent precious time explaining to you!!! Again - I have explained this here before - and I know I have explained Nepal/Iran to you in great detail.

This explains how the draw is conducted -= http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/

I do, i really do, i understand, but those are legit questions

-if the process is random how can nepalese and iranian cases be concentrated in the first 9000? If it is random it is only logical that said cases are spread out
-once iran and nepal max out, will it not be based on the rank order?

 

[Idea Mani]

Right - so you really don't listen AT ALL do you - but you just keep talking without understanding anything. That is very disrespectful when I have spent precious time explaining to you!!! Again - I have explained this here before - and I know I have explained Nepal/Iran to you in great detail.

This explains how the draw is conducted -= http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/

He know and understand the fact but he is acting like that. You can wake up the people who are really sleeping. BUT you can not wake up the people who are acting like sleep.

 

[Britsimon]

I do, i really do, i understand, but those are legit questions

-if the process is random how can nepalese and iranian cases be concentrated in the first 9000? If it is random it is only logical that said cases are spread out
-once iran and nepal max out, will it not be based on the rank order?

1. READ THE DAMN LINK
2. HUH???